| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
2025 proved that patience and discipline remain the cornerstones of successful value investing despite extreme volatility. The S&P 500 experienced a 21% drawdown from February to April due to tariff concerns, only to recover rapidly and finish up nearly 18% for the year. This whipsaw pattern, dubbed the TACO trade, demonstrated how policy uncertainty can drive short-term volatility while fundamentals ultimately prevail. International equities outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time in years, with over $100 billion flowing into international funds. Precious metals led commodity performance with gold up 65%, while speculation returned through record SPAC issuance and margin debt reaching $1.2 trillion. The environment presents mixed signals: historically low consumer sentiment typically signals opportunity, yet it coexists with elevated valuations and strong recent returns. With credit spreads tight, fiscal stimulus providing tailwinds but complicating monetary policy, and policy uncertainty persisting, success will likely come from valuation discipline, balance-sheet analysis, and patience rather than attempting to time market narratives.
In 2025's volatile environment where confidence eroded but discipline paid, successful long-term investing required staying the course through extreme market swings driven by tariff policy uncertainty, while maintaining focus on valuation discipline and balance-sheet strength rather than attempting to time narrative shifts.
The market's signals feel unusually mixed with strong index-level returns masking sharp dispersion, elevated speculation, unresolved policy uncertainty, and historically low sentiment. For investors, the lesson is not to predict the next narrative shift, but to remain disciplined when narratives inevitably change. In an environment where confidence and caution coexist, durable results are more likely to come from valuation discipline, mindfulness of balance-sheet strength, and patience than from attempts to anticipate the next turn of the tape.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | fiscal policy, Market Commentary, monetary policy, Sentiment, Speculation, tariffs, Value Investing, volatility | - | 2025 saw extreme market volatility with the S&P 500 falling 21% from February peak to April low due to tariff concerns, then recovering rapidly. The VIX surged above 50 during the selloff, indicating acute market stress and fear. Tariff announcements dominated market narrative in 2025, with Liberation Day shocking investors with proposed increases. The TACO trade pattern emerged where tariff threats triggered selloffs followed by delays and reversals that fueled rebounds. Speculation resurfaced in 2025 with SPAC IPO issuance exceeding 2023 and 2024 combined. There were more SPAC IPOs (144) than traditional IPOs (86), indicating renewed speculative behavior in markets. Precious metals enjoyed a banner year with gold posting +65% gains, its strongest annual performance since 1979. This outperformance coincided with dollar weakness and global uncertainty. Copper rose sharply by 40% in 2025, reflecting sustained global demand despite broader commodity market divergences. This performance contrasted with energy markets which moved in the opposite direction. |
| Oct 17 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, emerging markets, Housing, interest rates, productivity |
GOOGL NVDA |
Boyar underscores AIs transformative potential but argues that productivity gains will take years to materialize, drawing parallels to past technological revolutions. It also highlights housing as a pivotal macroeconomic driver, with easing mortgage rates potentially igniting construction and consumption. The firm balances optimism about emerging market momentum with caution over stretched valuations and speculative excess in U.S. equities. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | downside, fundamentals, Intrinsic Value, Margin Of Safety, mispricing | - | The fund reiterates its value discipline emphasizing downside protection and margin of safety. Management highlights mispriced equities driven by short-term fear rather than fundamentals. The strategy remains anchored in intrinsic value and long-duration investing. |
| Apr 27 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 24 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 19 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 20 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 24 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 13 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
SPACsThe Fund operates three SPAC strategies: arbitrage, non-redemption agreements, and proprietary investments. SPAC IPO issuance was robust with 144 IPOs raising over $30bn in 2025, but transaction announcements lagged at only 65 deals. The supply-demand imbalance created attractive yields for the Fund while recent IPOs underperformed with 70% losing money net of financing costs. |
SPAC arbitrage Non-redemption agreements SPAC IPOs Transaction announcements Trust value | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
VolatilityMarket volatility in spring 2025 triggered by trade tariff uncertainty led to a broad sell-off, with strategies down over 23% year-to-date at the trough. The manager used this volatility to add exposure at attractive prices during the decline. |
Market volatility Sell-off Opportunity Exposure Timing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
HousingStructural shortage of housing in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales as they can buy-down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Construction | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mark Boyar | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenter, GPUs, growth, Hardware, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mark Boyar | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, Dominance, growth, Search, technology | Login |
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