| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.39% | 10.67% | - |
The Bretton Fund returned 10.67% in Q2 2026, lagging the S&P 500's 15.20% due to avoiding the AI-driven semiconductor boom. The managers view the surge in memory and chip stocks as unsustainable, with Micron up 600%, SK Hynix up 500%, and Sandisk up over 3000%. They believe computing power requirements are dropping 50% every few months, making the data center buildout unsustainable. Despite being believers in AI and holding Alphabet as their largest position, they refuse to chase absurd valuations in semiconductors. The quarter's positive contributors included UnitedHealth, which added 2.5% after executing its turnaround plan and rebounding 80% from lows, and American Express at 0.7%. The managers added two new software positions, SAP and Constellation, after AI fears created indiscriminate selling. They paid 16x 2027 earnings for SAP and 13x free cash flow for Constellation, viewing mission-critical enterprise software as relatively insulated from AI disruption. Detractors included TJX, Berkshire, and AutoZone. The managers maintain their disciplined approach, willing to underperform until semiconductor valuations correct.
The managers run a concentrated value portfolio focused on high-quality businesses trading at reasonable valuations, refusing to chase momentum in overvalued sectors like semiconductors despite near-term underperformance.
The managers expect to continue underperforming until the AI data center buildout phase ends and semiconductor valuations correct. They believe their software positions in SAP and Constellation are relatively insulated from AI disruption and offer attractive risk-reward at current valuations. They see further upside in UnitedHealth as the turnaround continues. The tone is patient and contrarian, willing to appear out of step with the market rather than chase valuations that make no sense to them.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30 2026 | 2026 Q2 | CSU.TO, GOOGL, MSFT, MU, SAP, UNH | AI, Enterprise Software, healthcare, large cap, Managed Care, semiconductors, value |
SAP CSU.TO |
Bretton Fund lagged the market in Q2 2026 by avoiding the unsustainable AI semiconductor boom, refusing to chase Micron up 600% and memory stocks at absurd valuations. UnitedHealth's turnaround added 2.5% after rebounding 80% from crisis lows. The managers opportunistically added SAP and Constellation Software at material discounts, viewing mission-critical enterprise software as insulated from AI disruption despite market fears. |
| Apr 21 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK/B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, ROST, SPGI, TJX, UNH, V | AI, Concentration, infrastructure, payments, technology, value | AXP | Bretton Fund's concentrated portfolio lagged in Q1 2026 as AI concerns pressured payment stocks despite strong underlying fundamentals. Managers defend payment processors' network effects and fraud prevention moats against AI disruption. Old economy retailers outperformed while tech cooled. Fund maintains conviction in concentrated approach targeting quality businesses with strong earnings growth and capital returns. |
| Feb 12 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | AI, Banking, consumer, financials, Housing, technology, value |
UNH GOOG RVTY |
Bretton Fund returned 11.58% in 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 due to avoiding speculative AI investments and housing market weakness. Alphabet's 65% return from AI success and strong financial sector performance were offset by UnitedHealth's actuarial disasters and frozen housing demand. The fund maintains its value-focused approach, positioning for eventual housing recovery while finding selective long-term opportunities. |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | Antitrust, consumer, financials, healthcare, retail, technology |
GOOGL UNH |
Bretton Fund matched market returns at 8.21% in Q3, driven by Alphabet's favorable antitrust ruling adding 3.1%. UnitedHealth rebounded while Progressive declined on rate concerns. Managers sold 15-year Union Pacific holding over dilutive acquisition concerns, demonstrating disciplined capital allocation focused on quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages. |
| Jul 25 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK.A, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | fundamentals, healthcare, insurance, technology, value | UNH | Bretton Fund underperformed in Q2 as UnitedHealth Group collapsed 55% due to higher healthcare utilization and management changes, costing the fund 2%. Technology stocks Microsoft and Alphabet were strong contributors. The managers maintain conviction in fundamentals-driven investing and view UNH as attractively valued at 10 times earnings despite current challenges. |
| Apr 23 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-A, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | durability, Franchises, Pricing Power, tariffs, Trade Policy, value | - | Bretton Fund outperformed in Q1 despite trade policy volatility affecting technology holdings. The fund owns durable franchises like Progressive and AutoZone that demonstrated resilience during market turbulence. Management views current tariff policies as unsustainable wealth destroyers that will eventually end, creating opportunities to invest in quality companies at attractive prices. |
| Feb 6 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | consumer, financials, healthcare, technology, value |
PGR AXP GOOGL AZO NVR DFH UNH |
Bretton Fund's concentrated portfolio of 20 quality companies delivered 20% returns in 2024 despite Q4 homebuilder weakness from rising rates. Alphabet faces AI competition but maintains strong fundamentals, Progressive demonstrates pricing superiority in auto insurance, and American Express benefits from premium card growth. Managers emphasize long-term positioning over market timing expectations. |
| Oct 24 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | financials, growth, Homebuilders, insurance, materials, technology, value |
PGR GOOGL |
Bretton Fund hit new highs with 9.99% quarterly returns led by Progressive's data-driven insurance growth and homebuilders benefiting from rate cuts. Despite acknowledging frothy market conditions with S&P 500 at elevated 22x earnings, managers maintain concentrated portfolio of 20 quality businesses trading below intrinsic value, positioned for long-term earnings compounding. |
| Jul 24 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, EXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | Building Materials, financials, Homebuilders, large cap, Quality, technology, value | EXP | Bretton Fund lagged in Q2 due to avoiding Nvidia's surge, with Alphabet leading gains and Dream Finders Homes the main detractor. The fund sold microcap Armanino after an 11-year 579% return and highlighted Eagle Materials as positioned for building materials demand from housing shortages and infrastructure spending. |
| May 7 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMNF, AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, ROST, RVTY, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | healthcare, insurance, large cap, Quality, value | UNH | Bretton Fund posted 11.41% Q1 returns driven by Progressive's pricing success and AutoZone's margin expansion. UnitedHealth faced cyberattack and Medicare rate pressures but remains well-positioned for healthcare industry evolution. The concentrated 20-stock portfolio emphasizes quality large-caps with competitive moats and pricing power across diverse sectors. |
| Sep 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MSFT, PGR, SPGI, TJX, UNH | concentrated, large cap, Quality, technology, US, value | - | Bretton Fund's concentrated 20-stock strategy delivered -1.38% in Q3 but maintained strong 12.26% YTD returns. Alphabet led gains as AI fears subsided, while American Express declined on credit concerns despite strong fundamentals. No portfolio changes reflect disciplined approach targeting fairly-priced quality businesses. Management confident in current holdings' risk-reward despite acknowledging they won't pick perfect performers. |
| Oct 20 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AXP, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MSFT, PGR, SPGI, TJX, UNH | Concentration, large cap, Quality, technology, US, value | - | Bretton Fund's concentrated 20-stock strategy delivered -1.38% in Q3 but maintained 12.26% YTD returns. Alphabet led gains as AI fears subsided, while American Express declined on credit concerns despite strong fundamentals. No portfolio changes reflect disciplined approach to high-quality businesses fairly priced for cash generation ability. |
| Aug 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMNF, AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, PKI, ROST, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | AI, consumer discretionary, financials, Homebuilders, insurance, technology | - | Bretton Fund returned 13.80% in H1 2023, led by homebuilder Dream Finders' recovery and AI-driven gains in Alphabet and Microsoft. Progressive faced transitory auto insurance headwinds while Revvity declined on pharma spending concerns. Managers remain optimistic on the US economy long-term but cautious on market valuations, maintaining concentrated portfolio of quality companies. |
| Apr 21 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMNF, AXP, AZO, BAC, BRK-B, DFH, GOOGL, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, PKI, ROST, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | Banking, healthcare, Housing, technology, value |
AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH CNVRG PM JPM ABAC |
Bretton Fund returned 4.52% in Q1 as technology rebounded but banking turmoil created headwinds. The fund's megabank holdings JPMorgan and Bank of America weathered regional banking crisis well and should benefit from consolidation. Strong housing demand despite high rates supports homebuilder NVR. Portfolio remains concentrated in quality companies positioned for long-term outperformance. |
| Feb 14 2023 | 2022 Q4 | AXP, BRK/A, GOOG, JPM, MSFT, TJX, UNH | - | - | |
| Oct 21 2022 | 2022 Q3 | AMNF, AXP, AZO, BRK/A, DFH, GOOG, JPM, MA, MCO, MSFT, NVR, PGR, PKI, PRK, ROST, SPGI, TJX, UNH, UNP, V | - | - | |
| Aug 25 2022 | 2022 Q2 | GOOG | - | - | |
| Apr 20 2022 | 2022 Q1 | CP | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe managers are believers in AI capabilities and hold Alphabet as their largest position. However, they are highly skeptical of the sustainability of AI data center spending, viewing the semiconductor and memory buildout as unsustainable. They believe the computing power required for AI is dropping dramatically and the spending surge will dissipate, leading to a painful downturn in memory and semiconductors. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Memory Cloud |
SemiconductorsThe managers view the semiconductor boom driven by AI data center spending as unsustainable and characterized by absurd valuations. They cite Micron up 600%, SK Hynix up 500%, and Sandisk up over 3000% as evidence of irrational exuberance. They believe nothing fundamental has changed in the memory business and expect a painful downturn, refusing to chase these valuations despite underperforming the market. |
Memory Chip Designers AI Data Centers | |
Enterprise SoftwareThe managers added two new software positions (SAP and Constellation) after indiscriminate AI-driven selling created opportunities. They believe mission-critical enterprise software is relatively insulated from AI disruption because companies won't risk tearing out core systems despite AI's capabilities. They view current valuations as bargains, buying SAP at 16x 2027 earnings and Constellation at 13x 2027 free cash flow. |
SaaS Cloud Vertical Software | |
Managed CareUnitedHealth faced a severe crisis a year ago, losing over half its value due to unexpectedly higher healthcare usage and unprofitable business. The company executed its turnaround by raising rates and exiting unprofitable markets. The managers bought more after the stock tanked, and it has since returned 37% over the past year and 80% off its lows, with more upside expected. |
Healthcare Insurance | |
PaymentsAmerican Express was a significant positive contributor to performance this quarter, adding 0.7% to returns. The stock is held as a meaningful position at 6.16% of net assets. |
Credit Cards Consumer Finance | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager discusses AI disruption concerns in payments sector but remains skeptical that AI will replace traditional card networks. Views AI as likely to use existing payment infrastructure rather than circumvent it. |
Artificial Intelligence Payments Disruption Infrastructure |
PaymentsExtensive analysis of payment networks as digital infrastructure companies with strong network effects. Manager believes card companies are well-positioned against AI disruption due to fraud prevention capabilities and ecosystem complexity. |
Credit Cards Digital Infrastructure Network Effects Fraud Prevention | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Defense SpendingManager maintains exposure to global armaments companies, noting the entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. The position materially outperformed for the year despite Q4 underperformance, with top contributors including Rheinmetall, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. |
Defense Armaments Military Geopolitical Security |
GoldManager holds both physical gold bullion and a leveraged gold exposure called 'Gresham's Wrath' that combines 1.5x gold exposure with option income generation. Gold demand from global central banks is accelerating while US Treasuries are being reduced, with growing mistrust evidenced by physical deliveries. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Central Banks Inflation | |
Managed FuturesStrategy uses multiple models across price trend, fundamental reversion, carry, and risk-flow to capture different market dynamics. Manager notes asymmetric value given ultra-low starting point of armament spending which could lead to failed deterrence, resurgent armament spending disrupting bond markets, and kinetic conflict disrupting commodity markets. |
Alternatives Commodities Systematic Trend Following Risk Management | |
Capital MarketsManager maintains exposure to exchanges as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage. These exposures materially outperformed for the year, benefiting from trading volumes and having natural inflation hedges through transaction-based revenue. |
Exchanges Trading Financial Infrastructure Technology Data | |
EnergyManager holds West Texas real estate with associated oil, gas, and water rights, describing it as a capital-light compounding machine with perpetual royalty income. However, the position underperformed both quarterly and annually as quantitative signals indicated unfavorable conditions. |
Oil Gas Royalties Real Estate Permian Basin | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Capital MarketsThe fund benefited from favorable antitrust ruling for Alphabet's Google, where the judge mandated only limited sharing of search data rather than implementing harsher penalties like divesting Chrome browser or Android operating system. This left Google's core search business essentially intact, driving significant outperformance. |
Antitrust Regulation Search Monopoly Competition |
| 2025 Q2 |
Managed CareUnitedHealth Group faced severe challenges with Medicare Advantage patients consuming far more healthcare than expected, particularly public employee retirees, and OptumHealth division enrollees from exited plans requiring more care than anticipated. The company revised earnings guidance down significantly and management was replaced, but the stock now trades at attractive valuations around 10 times earnings. |
Medicare Healthcare Insurance Utilization Margins |
ValueThe fund focuses on fundamentals rather than shifting with market sentiment, holding positions like Berkshire Hathaway and AutoZone that declined due to perception as safe stocks rather than operational issues. UnitedHealth now trades at compelling valuations despite challenges, with the raw math being attractive at current prices. |
Fundamentals Valuation Undervalued Earnings Multiple | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe fund discusses the current administration's frequent U-turns on tariff policy, attempting to balance imposing high tariffs while preventing market crashes. They view trade wars as wealth-destructive and believe the current policies will eventually end. |
Tariffs NAFTA China Trade War Global Trade |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIDozens of new AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek offer compelling alternatives to Google's search monopoly. Google has created Gemini AI app that is on par with competitors, but it's not the dominant platform like Google search. Microsoft has become the go-to provider of computing services for emerging AI companies, benefiting from the AI arms race. |
Search Cloud Competition Platforms Computing |
Auto InsuranceProgressive is the savviest auto insurer, able to tweak policies faster than competition in response to industry changes and shifting driver behavior. When it recognized rates were too low for increasing crashes and higher repair costs post-pandemic, it was first to raise rates significantly. Now that industry rates have caught up, Progressive's prices are again low by comparison. |
Pricing Competition Claims Marketing Growth | |
HomebuildersThirty-year mortgage rates were over 6% for all of 2024, highest since 2008 financial crisis. Existing house sales hit lowest levels since 1995, new housing starts down 4%. NVR continues grinding with basic business model despite market trends. Dream Finders focuses on growth and acquisition but faces more volatility. |
Rates Housing Construction Growth Volatility | |
PaymentsVisa and Mastercard kept doing their thing, increasing earnings per share by 15% and 12% respectively. The fund continues to closely watch the evolving payments space as everyone's always trying to displace the card networks. For now, they don't see anything gaining much traction. |
Networks Competition Disruption Growth Earnings | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Auto InsuranceProgressive is highlighted as the most sophisticated auto insurer, leveraging vast driver data to recognize shifts in driver behavior and collision costs. The company was early to raise rates in 2021 to offset higher post-Covid costs, temporarily losing customers but now benefiting from comparatively attractive rates and highly profitable growth with premiums up 20% year-over-year. |
Insurance Data Pricing Growth |
HomebuildersHome builders NVR and Dream Finders benefited from Federal Reserve rate cuts this quarter, as investors became more enthusiastic about the outlook for new home construction. Both companies were significant contributors to fund performance. |
Construction Rates Housing | |
Building MaterialsEagle Materials, a manufacturer of cement and wallboard, was added as a new investment. While unlikely to match the earnings growth of technology companies, it trades at a lower multiple and represents the fund's optimism in the building materials sector. |
Materials Construction Value | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Building MaterialsThe fund sees long-term demand for wallboard and cement driven by structural housing shortage and infrastructure spending. Eagle Materials benefits from competitive advantages including low-cost gypsum sources, transportation barriers creating regional oligopolies, and locations in fast-growing Sun Belt markets. |
Wallboard Cement Infrastructure Housing Construction |
Infrastructure SpendingThe 2021 federal infrastructure law will drive years of spending on construction and maintenance of bridges, highways, and public transportation. Cement is a critical component in all these projects, creating sustained demand for materials companies. |
Infrastructure Construction Cement Transportation Government | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Auto InsuranceProgressive demonstrated strong performance by increasing prices and adding customers as accident rates rose. The company was early to raise prices and now finds its rates competitive again as competitors follow suit, leading to 19% revenue growth from premiums. |
Progressive Pricing Premiums Underwriting Customers |
HealthcareUnitedHealth faced challenges from a cyberattack on Change Healthcare and lower Medicare reimbursement rates. However, the company's size, diverse business lines, and positioning for the shift to capitated care models provide competitive advantages despite near-term headwinds. |
UnitedHealth Medicare Optum Capitated Cybersecurity | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAlphabet continued its rebound from concerns that AI platforms like ChatGPT would disrupt Google's advertising business model. While these large language models are incredible, their commercial risk to Google's core advertising business remains unclear. Google launched its own ChatGPT competitor called Bard, which works well, and investors have become increasingly optimistic about the company's AI prospects. |
Artificial Intelligence Large Language Models ChatGPT Bard Google |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIAlphabet continued its rebound from concerns that AI platforms like ChatGPT would disrupt Google's advertising business model. While these large language models are incredible, their commercial risk to Google's core advertising business remains unclear. Google launched its own ChatGPT competitor called Bard, which works well, and investors have become increasingly optimistic about the company's AI prospects. |
Artificial Intelligence Large Language Models ChatGPT Bard Google |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIArtificial intelligence appears promising and drove strong performance for tech holdings Alphabet and Microsoft. AI offers promise for drug discovery and development, with potential to sort molecules for therapeutic promise more effectively than ever. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Drug Discovery |
HomebuildersDream Finders Homes was the largest positive contributor after falling 65% below average cost. Housing shortage and existing homeowners' reluctance to give up low-rate mortgages kept demand for newly built homes strong despite higher rates. |
Housing Construction Interest Rates | |
Auto InsuranceFirst quarter 2023 was worst for auto insurance losses since 2001 due to high used car prices, labor costs, parts costs, natural disasters, and continued driver inattention. Problems viewed as transitory with Progressive gaining market share. |
Insurance Auto Claims | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Community BanksRegional banking crisis emerged with Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic facing deposit flight and liquidity issues. Megabanks like JPMorgan and Bank of America expected to benefit from flight to quality and increased regulation of community banks. |
Banking Deposits Liquidity Regulation Crisis |
HomebuildersHousing demand remains strong despite high mortgage rates. Existing homeowners reluctant to sell due to low mortgage rates, restricting supply and benefiting new home construction. NVR performed well in the quarter. |
Housing Mortgages Supply Construction Rates |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | SAP | SAP SE | Software - Application | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI disruption risk, cloud migration, Enterprise software, ERP software, Germany, margin expansion, Mission-critical systems, switching costs, Value | Login |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | CSU.TO | Constellation Software, Inc | Software - Application | Application Software | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | AI disruption risk, Canada, Customer Inertia, Mission-Critical Software, Niche Software, serial acquirer, switching costs, Value, vertical market software | Login |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | AXP | American Express Company | Credit Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI disruption, consumer finance, credit cards, digital infrastructure, financial services, Fraud prevention, network effects, payment processing | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Stephen Dodson | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, healthcare, Insurance, Integration, Managedcare | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Stephen Dodson | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, Autonomy, cloud, datacenter, monetization, Search | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Stephen Dodson | RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, Biotech, Consumables, diagnostics, divestiture, research, spending | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stephen Dodson | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, antitrust, cloud, Margins, Regulation, resilience | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stephen Dodson | UNH | UnitedHealth Group | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | NASDAQ | growth, healthcare, Insurance, management, Margins, Optum, recovery | Login |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Health Care Plans | Bull | NYSE | DOJ investigation, health insurance, Leadership Change, Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, Repricing Strategy, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | PGR | The Progressive Corporation | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | Auto Insurance, market share, marketing strategy, Operational Agility, Post-Pandemic Recovery, Pricing power, Property & Casualty | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | AXP | American Express Co. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Affluent Demographics, Brand Premium, consumer finance, Expense Control, Premium credit cards, Revenue Growth, Younger Cardholders | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI competition, digital advertising, information services, Revenue Growth, search engine, Streaming Video, valuation discount, YouTube | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | AZO | AutoZone, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Aftermarket, Competitive Moats, international expansion, inventory management, retail, Return on capital, shareholder returns | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | NVR | NVR, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | NYSE | capital efficiency, homebuilding, Interest Rate Resilience, margin expansion, market share, operating leverage, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | DFH | Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bear | NASDAQ | Acquisitions, asset-light model, growth strategy, homebuilding, return on equity, Southeast Markets, Volatility Risk | Login |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Health Care Plans | Bull | NYSE | earnings growth, health insurance, Healthcare Management, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory risk, Structural positioning, valuation discount | Login |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | PGR | The Progressive Corporation | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | Auto Insurance, Data Analytics, financials, premium growth, Pricing power, Property & Casualty | Login |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Communication Services, compounding, earnings growth, High Multiple, Interactive Media, technology | Login |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | EXP | Eagle Materials, Inc. | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, Cement, commodity, construction materials, Gypsum, Housing shortage, infrastructure, materials, Sun Belt, Wallboard | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Health Care Plans | Bull | NYSE | Capitated Model, cybersecurity, Defensive Moat, Health Care Plans, Healthcare services, Integrated Healthcare, market share gains, Medicare, Optum, Pharmacy Benefits | Login |
| Apr 21, 2023 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Health Care Plans | Bull | NYSE | Aging demographics, Government Reimbursement, health insurance, Healthcare services, managed care, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory | Login |
| Apr 21, 2023 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | CNVRG PM | NVR, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | NYSE | homebuilder, Housing supply, mortgage rates, New Construction, Rate Lock-in, Real Estate, Supply Constraint | Login |
| Apr 21, 2023 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financials | Diversified Banks | Bull | NYSE | Banking Crisis, Deposit Flight, financial stability, market share gains, Megabank, Regulatory advantage, Systemically Important | Login |
| Apr 21, 2023 | Fund Letters | Bretton Fund | ABAC | Bank of America Corp. | Financials | Diversified Banks | Bull | NYSE | Banking Consolidation, Deposit Migration, interest rate risk, Megabank, Systemically Important, Unrealized Losses, well-capitalized | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| UNH | A year ago, we wrote to you about the travails of our UnitedHealth investment. The stock lost over half its value in about a month, an extraordinary change for a steady business that serves as the health insurance provider to one in seven Americans. There were two core problems the company faced: unexpectedly higher healthcare usage and chasing unprofitable business. The company has since executed on its turnaround plan, raising rates to reflect the higher usage and getting out of markets it couldn't make money in. We bought more after the stock tanked, and it has since rebounded, returning 37% over the past year and 80% off its lows. We think there's more to come. The stock added 2.5% to performance in the quarter. |
| GOOGL | We are believers in AI and its capabilities, and our largest holding continues to be Alphabet, arguably the leading beneficiary of AI. The stock added 3% to performance this quarter. |
| MU | Computer memory in particular, a notoriously crummy industry with poor returns, is seeing nearly insatiable demand as AI companies undertake an expensive landgrab for computing power. Stock prices have surged to absurd levels over the past year—Micron by 600%, SK Hynix 500%, Sandisk over 3,000%—and along with the broader semiconductor space, they have driven much of the return of the market. Nothing fundamental has changed about the memory business, and the sector will see a painful downturn at some point. |
| SAP | In addition to creating euphoria in semiconductor stocks, the excitement around AI has killed software stocks on the premise that AI will enable new competitors to create cheaper alternatives and also allow customers to develop their own software to replace their current systems. That will absolutely happen, but we are not convinced it will happen to all types of software. The indiscriminate selling allowed us to add two new positions this quarter: SAP and Constellation Software. SAP is the largest enterprise software company in the world. Giant corporations use its software for everything from HR to complex manufacturing as the brainstem of their operations. Even with incredible advances in the ease of AI-enabled software, we don't think people are going to tear out their mission-critical systems. For the core SAP customer—a highly complex operation deeply integrated into SAP's software—we don't think this risk is huge. And on the other side of the coin, SAP is a beneficiary of AI as it's now able to produce more code more efficiently. SAP is a highly profitable company whose revenues are growing around 9% and earnings around 15% as their margins are set to expand as it pivots to the cloud and cuts expenses. We paid about 16 times the 2027 estimated earnings for these shares, a material discount to the rest of the market, and we think it is a nice add to our portfolio. |
| CSU.TO | The indiscriminate selling allowed us to add two new positions this quarter: SAP and Constellation Software. The world is filled with millions of programs made for niche businesses that are limited in size by the nature of their product. Think management and accounting software for country clubs or the floor planning software for a car dealership. These are usually highly profitable businesses, but may only be growing 1–2% per year and are too small to go public and not growing fast enough to be attractive to a Salesforce or Atlassian. Constellation Software has been buying these businesses for 30 years and inspired copycats. Both SAP and Constellation are perceived to be at risk from AI. In Constellation's case, it's easier to see the fear. Consider software for dry cleaners that uses an interface that looks like it was written for the Commodore 64, surely it would not take long to design a competitor. Let's stipulate it can be done. Indeed, new entrants release competing products all the time. A new product could be made much more cheaply now, but what happens next? The competitor would have to go out and reach all the dry cleaners, thin margin businesses with other priorities, and persuade them to swap out the existing system. Will the new system bring in new customers? No. Will it allow for cost savings? Probably not. It will look better and have a more dynamic interface, but is that worth the transition? Again, probably not. Some enterprising dry cleaners will surely use Claude to create their own systems and save themselves $130 per month. But will most take the plunge and take on the associated maintenance and bug fixing that comes with that, or will they decide it is worth $130 to have someone else do that work? The software world is changing fast and the investors are rapidly trying to price that risk. We believe the price we're getting for these businesses that we feel are relatively insulated from AI are bargains. We bought Constellation for a little more than 13 times the 2027 estimated free cash flow per available share, which is expected to grow 15–20% in the coming years. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
