Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 13.2% | -1.8% | 14.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 14.5% | 31.0% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 13.2% | -1.8% | 14.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 14.5% | 31.0% |
Broadleaf delivered 14.5% returns in 2025 despite a disappointing Q4 that cost them relative performance versus the S&P 500. The manager remains bullish on AI despite bubble concerns, viewing the technology as still in infant stages requiring sustained investment. AI-related spending drove economic growth across multiple sectors, though concerns about data center spending and funding levels created fourth-quarter volatility. The portfolio maintains focus on the Innovation Cycle with AI at center stage, while the Credit Cycle shows renewed strength with banks outperforming for the first time in years. Key risks include elevated bubble concerns and a K-shaped economy creating political volatility. Catalysts include expected Trump administration stimulus and AI productivity gains broadening beyond the Magnificent 7. The manager is not making defensive adjustments like during the inflation scare, instead maintaining concentration in sustainable growth opportunities while acknowledging clients should align exposure with their risk tolerance and time horizons.
Focus on sustainable long-term growth opportunities in AI and innovation while managing concentration risk in a potentially volatile but rewarding capex-intensive economy.
The manager expects 2026 could be more of the same AI-driven growth with potential excitement from Trump administration stimulus. They remain bullish on AI theme but acknowledge elevated risks. The outlook emphasizes preparing for rough seas while maintaining focus on long-term growth opportunities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | NVDA, ORCL, PLTR | AI, Concentration, credit, growth, innovation, large cap, technology | - | AI remains central to investment thesis despite bubble concerns. The technology development is in infant stages requiring sustained financial support. AI-related spending drove economic growth… |
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CI, COST | Employment, Fed policy, growth, inflation, tariffs | - | Broadleaf highlights extreme dispersion between price and value as narrative-driven markets favor growth regardless of fundamentals. The manager emphasizes downside protection through balance-sheet strength and… |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Balance Sheets, contrarian, Margin Of Safety, Mean reversion, value | - | The letter emphasizes contrarian value investing in underappreciated businesses facing temporary headwinds. Management highlights margin of safety, balance sheet strength, and the potential for mean… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Credit CycleFor the first time in years, the financial sector led by banks has started to outperform. Debt markets both public and private have become more popular as funding sources. The manager sees greater contributions from the Credit Cycle needed to realize AI's long-term dreams. |
Banks Debt Markets Private Credit Leverage Capital | |
Innovation CycleAll eyes remain on artificial intelligence as the primary innovation driver. The manager expects AI productivity gains to broaden beyond the Magnificent 7 to benefit the broader S&P 493 companies through reduced labor costs and improved efficiency. |
Technology Productivity Disruption Enterprise Automation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Fed Policy |
|
Growth |
||
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| PLTR | The top three contributors to this outperformance came from Palantir Technologies (US Defense) |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||