Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 36% | 29.7% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 36% | 29.7% |
Buckley Capital delivered 36.0% net returns in Q2 2026, bringing YTD performance to 29.7% versus 22.8% for the Russell 2000 Value. The quarter was marked by strong broad-based performance and disciplined capital recycling. The manager fully exited Dave after a 100%+ gain as valuations reached the high end of historical ranges, and exited most of Root at a loss after underestimating the depth of auto insurance industry headwinds. Liquidia remains the largest YTD contributor, up over 100%, with 50%+ upside remaining to potential acquisition value pending an imminent legal ruling. New positions in Celsius and Light & Wonder offer compelling risk-reward, with Celsius facing temporary SKU rationalization headwinds masking multiple 2027 tailwinds, and Light & Wonder trading at a 7-turn valuation discount to Aristocrat despite faster growth and credible management targets implying 150%+ upside. Basic-Fit continues executing on its staffless 24/7 conversion and European expansion through the Clever Fit acquisition. The portfolio is concentrated in businesses with improving fundamentals, identifiable catalysts, and attractive valuations, positioned to compound capital over the long term.
Buckley Capital identifies mispriced small and mid-cap equities where the market overly focuses on near-term uncertainty while underappreciating long-term earnings power and value creation, maintaining strict sell discipline to recycle capital from fairly valued positions into more compelling opportunities.
The manager believes the current portfolio is among the strongest owned in recent years and is well positioned heading into the second half of 2026. Dislocations across small and mid-cap equities continue to create compelling investment opportunities, particularly in situations involving misunderstood business models, temporary operational headwinds, or improving competitive positioning. The manager remains committed to disciplined capital allocation, trimming or exiting positions where risk-reward has become less attractive and redeploying into businesses where the market underestimates normalized earnings power and intrinsic value.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ALL.AX, BFIT.AS, CELH, DAVE, LNW, LQDA, MNST, ROOT | Beverages, Biotechnology, Consumer Finance, Europe, Fitness, gaming, SmallCap, value | - | Buckley Capital returned 36% in Q2 2026 through disciplined capital recycling, exiting Dave at peak valuations and Root after industry headwinds deepened, while maintaining conviction in Liquidia ahead of a catalyst and initiating positions in mispriced Celsius and Light & Wonder. The small-cap portfolio is concentrated in businesses with improving fundamentals and identifiable catalysts where the market underestimates normalized earnings power, positioned for continued compounding. |
| May 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ACHC, HGV, SEZL | Fintech, healthcare, small cap, special situations, turnaround, value | - | Buckley Capital targets high-quality businesses at deep discounts, focusing on special situations where markets undervalue normalized earnings power. Key positions include Acadia Healthcare's CEO-driven turnaround, mispriced BNPL leader Sezzle, and undervalued timeshare operator Hilton Grand Vacations. Despite Q1 volatility, strong April performance validates their thesis as fundamentals assert themselves across concentrated portfolio. |
| Jan 27 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ALL, BFIT, DAVE, FTAI, GE, HLT, HWM, IHG.L, IWG.L, LNW, LQDA, MAR, PRTH, RR.L, RTX, SAF.PA, UTHR, VRNA, WLFC | aerospace, Europe, Fintech, gaming, Inflection, small caps, turnaround, value |
WLFC PRTH LNW IWG LN DAVE LQDA |
Buckley Capital outperformed in 2025 with 21.4% returns by exploiting price-value disconnects in small-cap equities. The concentrated portfolio targets inflection points in quality businesses like Basic-Fit and Willis Lease Finance, where improving fundamentals remain underappreciated. Multiple holdings are transitioning from temporary setbacks to normalization, positioning for meaningful value realization through company-specific catalysts rather than macro themes. |
| May 5 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BFIT.AS, DNTL.TO, IWG.L, LQDA, UTHR, VRNA | Europe, healthcare, small caps, tariffs, value, volatility |
DNTL.TO BFIT.AS VRNA LQDA |
Buckley Capital outperformed during Q1 tariff-driven volatility with defensive positioning and core holdings in stable businesses like Dentalcorp and Basic Fit. Healthcare exposure through successful Verona Pharma and Liquidia Corp launches provides growth drivers. Manager views current market stress as creating attractive value opportunities similar to best-performing years, expecting continued outperformance through disciplined small-cap value investing. |
| Jan 27 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, DNTL.TO, GOGO, MSFT, PLNT, TSLA, XPOF | Aviation, Connectivity, Fitness, Franchising, Russell 2000, small cap, undervalued, value |
GOGO XPOF |
Small-cap value manager targeting 20% annual returns through concentrated positions in undervalued Russell 2000 names. Portfolio includes IWG at 7.5x earnings with 25% growth, new aviation connectivity play Gogo with 300% upside, and fitness franchisor XPOF expecting 100-200% returns. Believes small caps positioned to outperform overvalued large caps over next decade. |
| Oct 29 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CC, CZR, IWG.L | Chemicals, Fed Cuts, gaming, real estate, small caps, value |
CC CZR IWG.L |
Small cap value manager underperformed in 2024 despite portfolio trading at 70% discount to fair value. Positioned for Fed rate cut tailwinds with small caps at 45-year relative valuation lows. Key holdings Chemours, Caesars, and IWG offer significant upside through business normalization and multiple re-rating. Expects value realization trend to reverse with continued Russell 2000 outperformance. |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BFIT, CC, DNTL.TO, HGV, IWG.L | Chemicals, Europe, Fitness, Russell 2000, small caps, Timeshare, Travel, value |
HGV BFIT |
Small caps at worst valuation versus large caps since 2000, mirroring pre-2000 setup before Russell 2000 outperformed S&P 500 by 9.5% annually. Fund positioned to significantly beat Russell 2000 through concentrated value plays including Hilton Grand Vacations at 6.9x EBITDA and Basic-Fit at all-time low multiples. Fed rate cuts provide additional catalyst for small cap outperformance. |
| May 22 2024 | 2024 Q1 | CC, GFF, GSY.TO, IWG.L, NGVT | Co-working, Commercial real estate, small caps, Specialty Chemicals, value | - | Buckley Capital posted 4.08% in Q1 while positioning aggressively for small-cap outperformance. The manager initiated Ingevity at 7-8x normalized earnings and doubled Chemours on temporary weakness. With small-cap valuations at 7th percentile levels since 1930 and strong economic backdrop, the concentrated portfolio of specialty chemicals and commercial real estate plays offers compelling multi-year upside potential. |
| May 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, DNTL.TO, GFF, GSY.TO, IWG.L, XPOF | Canada, Consolidation, Franchising, Short Squeeze, small caps, value | - | Buckley Capital delivered 31.4% returns in 2023, significantly outperforming small cap benchmarks. Manager sees generational opportunity in small/mid-cap value stocks trading at 9.6x earnings with 18% growth versus expensive large caps. Portfolio concentrated in quality businesses like Canadian dental consolidator Dentalcorp and coworking leader IWG, positioned for mean reversion as valuations normalize. |
| Oct 25 2023 | 2023 Q3 | DNTL.TO, GFF, LNW | gaming, healthcare, Industrial, Outperformance, small caps, value |
LNW DNTL.TO AAGFF |
Small caps are at pandemic-bottom valuations with Russell 2000 at 9x versus S&P 500 at 21x. Buckley Capital owns high-quality businesses trading at fractions of intrinsic value, outperforming benchmarks by 15-19% year-to-date. Key holdings Light and Wonder, Dentalcorp, and Griffon offer significant upside as fundamentals remain strong despite multiple compression. Fund targets 30% IRR over five years. |
| Jul 31 2023 | 2023 Q2 | DNTL.TO, GFF, MRLLN, NGMS, XPOF | Acquisitions, Building Products, Fitness, gaming, small cap, Testing, value | - | Buckley Capital's small-cap value strategy delivered exceptional Q2 performance driven by the Neogames acquisition at 120% premium. The fund targets undervalued companies with recurring revenues and organic growth, currently underwriting 30% IRR over five years. Key holdings include building products consolidator Griffon and UK testing business Marlowe, both trading below intrinsic value with multiple expansion catalysts. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
GamingLight & Wonder is undergoing a transformation under new management from Aristocrat, with aggressive 2028 targets of $2.0B EBITDA and >$10.55 EPS implying 150%+ upside. The company is trading at its lowest multiple in five years despite being faster-growing than Aristocrat. The Grover acquisition adds high-margin electronic pull-tab business with significant expansion runway across new states. |
Gaming Casinos Entertainment Grover iGaming |
BeveragesCelsius faces short-term headwinds from SKU rationalization but has multiple tailwinds for 2027 including 17% distribution increase, Red Bull price increases to follow, and strong growth from Alani Nu brand at 30%+ annually. The stock trades at 19x 2026 earnings versus Monster at 42x, with potential to reach $50-60 versus $30 today as headwinds clear. |
Beverages Energy Drinks Distribution Consumer | |
FitnessBasic-Fit is realizing benefits from converting French gyms to staffless 24/7 operations, which should increase customer base and margins. The Clever Fit acquisition in German-speaking countries and Wellyou acquisition add 40 gyms in Germany, improving ROIC and cash flow through increased franchising focus. Stock trades at 6.4x 2026 EBITDA versus fair value of 9-10x, with potential to double over 12-24 months. |
Fitness Europe Franchising Germany France | |
BiotechnologyLiquidia continues to deliver exceptional returns, up over 100% YTD and trading at $78 versus average cost of $9. The fund awaits Judge Andrews' decision on Yutrepia for PH-ILD, expected soon, with 50%+ upside remaining to potential acquisition value. Manager believes Andrews will rule in Liquidia's favor and an acquirer will emerge shortly after. |
Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals M&A Litigation | |
Auto InsuranceRoot was exited at a substantial loss after underestimating the depth and duration of commercial auto insurance industry headwinds. The soft market makes near-term execution very difficult for Root, though the manager still believes the long-term story is compelling and hopes to reenter the position in the future. |
Auto Insurance Insurance Commercial Auto | |
Consumer FinanceDave was fully exited after rallying over 100% from average cost as the stock became very expensive, trading at the high end of its historical multiple range. The original thesis played out well with management creating a beat-and-raise dynamic, but at current valuations the risk-reward is no longer attractive compared to other portfolio holdings, though the manager would like to own it again at the right price. |
Consumer Finance FinTech Valuation | |
| 2026 Q1 |
Behavioral HealthAcadia Healthcare represents a turnaround opportunity with proven CEO Debbie Osteen returning to lead the company. The behavioral health industry faces significant supply-demand imbalance with 30 million Americans receiving no mental health treatment and a deficit of 75,000 psychiatric beds. Osteen's operational discipline and capital-light strategy should drive meaningful free cash flow improvement from negative $424 million in 2025 to positive $140 million in 2026. |
Healthcare Turnaround Management Supply Shortage Mental Health |
BNPLSezzle is viewed as a mispriced buy now pay later business trading at attractive valuations of 12.7x current year earnings and less than 10x next year's earnings. The BNPL space is growing at 20% annually and Sezzle has the best business model with ability to quickly adjust credit standards. The company can compound earnings at 20%+ with a long growth runway. |
Fintech Consumer Finance Growth Valuation Credit | |
TravelHilton Grand Vacations represents an attractive entry point in the timeshare industry at just 6x free cash flow. The company has demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles with 60% of EBITDA from recurring sources. Management is buying back 15% of shares annually at current prices, and the business should trade at 10-15x FCF given its consistency and growth profile. |
Timeshares Hospitality Buybacks Recurring Revenue Valuation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI emergence has created market hysteria and broad software sell-offs despite limited real-world adoption. Manager believes incumbent software firms with domain expertise and proprietary data are better positioned than AI-native startups to capture long-term benefits from AI integration. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Automation Technology |
SoftwareSoftware sector treated as monolith awaiting AI disruption, creating valuation disconnect. Manager maintains significant overweight despite recent underperformance, believing dominant vertical platforms can successfully reinvent themselves for agentic world and fend off AI-native competitors. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Technology Vertical Software | |
ValueTraditional value industries experiencing renewed enthusiasm as AI mania creates broadening market leadership. Manager unable to capitalize on value rotation due to software overweight, describing it as biggest black eye on 15-year track record. |
Value Investing Small Cap Value Industrial | |
HotelsChoice Hotels represents asset-light, high-margin opportunity trading at distressed multiple due to cyclical headwinds. Company shifting portfolio toward higher-revenue segments with potential for significant cash unlock and share buybacks at historically low valuations. |
Hospitality Franchising Extended Stay Real Estate | |
| 2025 Q1 |
HealthcareThe fund has significant exposure to healthcare companies with best-in-class or first-in-class products, focusing on de-risked assets that don't require molecular-level analysis. Two material positions, Verona Pharma and Liquidia Corp, have grown to 5%+ positions due to strong performance and represent opportunities in COPD and pulmonary arterial hypertension treatments respectively. |
Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals COPD PAH Drug Launch |
ValueThe manager emphasizes buying fundamentally strong companies at attractive valuations, particularly during periods of market volatility when indiscriminate selling creates opportunities. The fund seeks businesses trading at significant discounts to their intrinsic value, with examples like companies trading at less than 10x FCF when similar businesses typically trade at over 20x FCF. |
Valuation Discount FCF Mispricing Opportunistic | |
TariffsTrump's aggressive tariff announcement created significant economic uncertainty and broad-based equity selling. The fund positioned defensively with less than 5% direct tariff exposure and expects the economic disruption from tariffs may lead to stagflation. The manager believes Trump may implement a less impactful tariff plan to improve his approval rating. |
Trade Policy Economic Uncertainty Stagflation Positioning | |
VolatilityThe manager views market volatility as creating the best investment opportunities, noting that their best years (2009, 2011, 2020) came during periods of significant market stress. Volatile markets typically correct within 12 months and create fortuitous environments for disciplined stock pickers when indiscriminate selling ignores valuation. |
Market Volatility Opportunity Stock Picking Market Timing | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in undervalued stocks trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, comparing portfolio holdings like IWG and Basic Fit to overvalued large-cap names like Apple and Tesla. Portfolio consists of undervalued stocks diversified across multiple businesses with substantial gaps between current prices and intrinsic values. |
Undervalued Intrinsic Value Discount Multiple Compression Valuation |
Small CapsLetter focuses extensively on small-cap opportunities, particularly Russell 2000 positioning and historical outperformance patterns. Manager believes current environment mirrors 2000 when small caps were poised to outperform large caps after period of underperformance. Expects Russell 2000 to generate 7-10% returns versus 5-7% for S&P 500 over next decade. |
Russell 2000 Small Cap Outperformance Relative Value Market Cap | |
FitnessSignificant position in Xponential Fitness, the largest global franchisor of boutique fitness brands operating across eight verticals including pilates, cycling, and yoga. Company showing strong operating momentum under new CEO with credit card data indicating 5.2% beat for Q4 relative to consensus. Manager believes XPOF trades at 60% discount to peers despite superior growth profile. |
Franchising Boutique Fitness Pilates Yoga Wellness | |
ConnectivityNew position in Gogo, which provides internet connectivity services to business aviation through a razor-razor blade model. Company benefits from industry consolidation to duopoly with Starlink and upcoming product launches including Galileo LEO satellite service and 5G offering. Manager sees 300% upside potential by 2028 as broadband penetration increases from current 35% to near 100%. |
Aviation Internet Satellites 5G Broadband | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Small CapsManager emphasizes small caps are in the 11th percentile of historical relative value differentials versus large caps, one of the lowest valuation environments in 45 years. Fed rate cuts historically benefit small caps significantly, with several outperformance cycles starting with rate cuts. |
Russell 2000 Valuation Fed Cuts Outperformance Relative Value |
ValuePortfolio average upside to fair value estimated at 70% with businesses dramatically undervalued. Manager focuses on process and long-term returns despite current underperformance, believing rationality will eventually prevail across stock prices. |
Undervalued Fair Value Upside Process Long-term | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Small CapsManager believes small caps are at their worst level relative to large caps since 2000, creating significant opportunity. Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 trading at all-time low valuation similar to 2000. Expects small caps to outperform large caps over next 5 years, similar to 2000-2004 period when Russell 2000 beat S&P 500 by 9.5% annualized. |
Russell 2000 Valuation Outperformance Relative Value |
TravelSignificant exposure through Hilton Grand Vacations in timeshare industry and Basic-Fit in European fitness/travel-adjacent sector. Timeshare industry has grown mid-single digits since 1970s with strong recurring revenue streams. HGV benefits from Hilton brand affiliation and partnerships for lead generation reaching diverse customer base. |
Timeshare Hospitality Recurring Revenue Brand Affiliation | |
FitnessBasic-Fit position represents largest Pan-European low-cost gym operator with significant growth runway. Fitness penetration in major European markets ranges from 9-18% vs 22% in US, suggesting multi-year TAM expansion. Company has guided to 1,575 clubs by year-end 2024 with long-term goal of 3,000-3,500 clubs by 2030. |
Gym Operators European Markets Market Penetration Network Expansion | |
ValuePortfolio focused on undervalued opportunities with significant upside potential. HGV trading at 6.9x consensus FY25 EBITDA vs historical range of 7x-13x. Basic-Fit at all-time low valuation of 8x 2024 FCF vs historical 15-30x range. Chemours could generate $4-5 FCF/share in 2025 vs current $24 trading price. |
Undervalued FCF Multiple EBITDA Multiple Historical Valuation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Specialty ChemicalsManager initiated position in Ingevity, a specialty chemicals company facing temporary margin pressure from high crude tall oil costs. The company is fixing these issues and should return to high historical growth rates. Also doubled position in Chemours after delayed filing created buying opportunity. |
Crude Tall Oil Activated Carbon Caprolactones EBITDA Margins Raw Materials |
Commercial Real EstateIWG benefits from the crisis in commercial real estate as it transitions to a capital-light model, partnering with landlords struggling to re-lease traditional office space. The company is signing up roughly 1,000 new properties per year under this managed approach. |
Co-working Flex Office Capital Light Property Management Office Space | |
Small CapsManager is very bullish on small caps given strong economy and potential for lower interest rates. The valuation differential between small-cap and large-cap stocks is extremely attractive, with rolling 5-year returns ranking in the 7th percentile since 1930. |
Valuation Gap Interest Rates Economic Strength Relative Performance Historical Spreads | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager emphasizes small and mid-cap value stocks are generationally cheap relative to other asset classes. Portfolio trades at 9.6x earnings with 18% EPS growth compared to expensive large caps like Apple at 28x earnings with only 8% projected growth. |
Value Small Caps Multiples Earnings Cheap |
DentalDentalcorp is a top position - largest dental service organization in Canada with recession-resistant, cash-generative business. Company has grown from 10 practices in 2011 to 535 currently, with significant consolidation runway in fragmented Canadian market. |
Healthcare Consolidation Canada Recession Resistant | |
FitnessXponential Fitness is a boutique fitness franchisor under coordinated short attack despite strong execution. Manager conducted extensive primary research showing over 90% of franchisees are profitable, contradicting short thesis claims. |
Franchising Short Squeeze Primary Research | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Small CapsSmall caps are at their most depressed levels since March 2020 pandemic bottom. The relative valuation of small cap stocks is near an all-time high with earnings positive IWN trading at 9x vs S&P at 21x. The Russell 2000 is down 30%+ from its November 2021 peak with multiple contraction of 40%+. |
Russell 2000 Valuation Multiple Compression Relative Value Market Dislocation |
ValueThe fund owns a collection of high quality businesses that trade at a fraction of what they are worth. This valuation disconnect is expected to lead to very strong forward returns as the market recognizes the underlying business strength. |
Undervalued Quality Intrinsic Value Mispricing Upside | |
GamingLight and Wonder represents a perfect confluence of events - an incredible business run by a great management team at an exceptional price. The company has poached 65 executives from Aristocrat and is running their successful playbook. Market share gains in Australia are starting to shift into North America. |
Slot Machines Market Share Management Australia North America | |
| 2023 Q2 |
GamingNeogames was the fund's second largest position when acquired by Aristocrat. The iLottery business has 67% market share in North America and provides services for governments transitioning from traditional scratch cards to online lottery programs. The North American iLottery market is projected to grow at 30%+ CAGR from 2021-2027. |
iLottery iGaming Sports Betting Online Lottery Gaming Platform |
Building MaterialsGriffon's Home and Building Products business has shown sustained profitability improvements with EBITDA of ~$480 million in fiscal 2023, roughly 90% greater than 2021 levels. Channel checks continue to be positive with strong demand in the commercial sector and consistent pricing, though some discounting occurs on large multi-door commercial projects. |
Commercial Construction Steel Prices Building Products Pricing Power | |
Testing & InspectionMarlowe operates Testing, Inspection, and Certification (TIC) and Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) segments with 85% recurring revenue and 7-10% organic growth. The business trades at 7.5x EBITDA versus historical 13-14x multiples, with rumors of the TIC business being up for sale potentially worth the entire enterprise value. |
Fire Safety Water Inspection Air Inspection Compliance Software | |
FitnessXponential Fitness was attacked by a short report but management and franchisee discussions suggest ~90% of franchises opened over 1 year are profitable. The top 3 brands (Club Pilates, Pure Barre, StretchLab) comprise two-thirds of open studios with satisfied franchisees. Strong same-location sales and growing AUVs contradict short report criticisms. |
Franchising Boutique Fitness Studio Operations Franchise Profitability |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | WLFC | Willis Lease Finance Corporation | Aerospace & Defense | Aircraft Leasing | Bull | NASDAQ | Accounting, Aerospace, asset value, Leasing, NAV | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | PRTH | Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, cashflow, Payments, take-private, undervaluation | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | LNW | Light & Wonder, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | duopoly, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | IWG LN | International Workplace Group plc | Real Estate | Flexible Office Space | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | asset-light, Flexible Office, Franchising, Margins, rerating | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | DAVE | Dave Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | BNPL, earnings growth, Fintech, Neobank, valuation | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Zack Buckley | LQDA | Liquidia Corporation | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | Asymmetric, Biotech, litigation, Optionality, pharma | Login |
| May 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | DNTL.TO | Dentalcorp Holdings Ltd. | Health Care | Health Care Facilities | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | acquisition strategy, Canada, cash generation, defensive, Dental Services, Healthcare consolidation, market leader, Recession-resistant | Login |
| May 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | BFIT.AS | Basic-Fit N.V. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | double-digit growth, Europe, Fitness Centers, Low-Cost Operator, market leader, Misunderstood Investment, Operational Leverage, regulatory catalyst | Login |
| May 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | VRNA | Verona Pharma plc | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | asymmetric risk-reward, biotechnology, Commercial Launch, COPD Treatment, FDA approval, Market Share Opportunity, Novel Mechanism, Special Situation | Login |
| May 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | LQDA | Liquidia Corporation | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, biotechnology, Litigation Victory, Market Share Capture, PAH Treatment, Patent Litigation, Product Superiority, Special Situation | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | 5G, Air-to-Ground, Business Aviation, Connectivity Services, duopoly, LEO satellites, private jets, Razor-Blade Model, recurring revenue, Satellite communications | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | XPOF | Xponential Fitness Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | Boutique Fitness, Credit Card Data, EBITDA growth, Franchise Peers, Franchising, multiple expansion, new CEO, Pilates, turnaround, valuation discount | Login |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | CC | Chemours Company | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical Recovery, environmental regulations, FCF multiple, margin expansion, refrigerants, specialty chemicals, Spin-off catalyst, Sum-of-parts | Login |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | CZR | Caesars Entertainment | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | deleveraging, Digital Sports Betting, FCF inflection, Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas Real Estate, rate cuts, Sum-of-parts | Login |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | IWG.L | IWG plc | Real Estate | Specialized REITs | Bull | LSE | Activist Investment, asset-light model, Flexible Workspace, Franchise Fees, Geographic Arbitrage, Multiple rerating, US Relisting, Value Realization | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | NYSE | Brand Affiliation, consolidation, Customer Upgrades, Cyclical Recovery, deleveraging, hospitality, market leader, recurring revenue, share repurchase, Timeshare | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | BFIT | Basic-Fit | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | Contrarian Value, demographic trends, European Fitness, Expansion Pipeline, Low-cost gyms, Management alignment, market leader, market penetration, recurring revenue, Unit economics | Login |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | LNW | Light and Wonder | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | Australia, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, Management transformation, market share gains, North America, recurring revenue, Slot Machines, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | DNTL.TO | Dentalcorp | Health Care | Health Care Services | Bull | TSX | Canada, consolidation, defensive, deleveraging, Dental Services, Free Cash Flow Growth, Healthcare services, Labor Inflation, margin expansion, Multiple re-rating | Login |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Fund Letters | Buckley Capital | AAGFF | Griffon Corporation | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, capital allocation, Commercial Construction, Industrial, margin expansion, Overhead Doors, Share Buybacks, Steel Prices, strategic sale, Sum-of-parts | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| DAVE | Dave has rallied over 100% from our average cost. While we believe Dave is a great business, the stock has become very expensive. It is now trading at the high end of its historical multiple range, and as such, we fully exited the position. While we continue to believe the business will do well, it will have to perform in line with our upside case for there to be meaningful returns going forward. This may be possible, but the risk-reward is not as attractive as other portfolio holdings. Our original thesis played out very well: we believed Dave is a great business that gives the average American consumer living paycheck to paycheck access to small but meaningful amounts of short-term cash. We also felt its business model is consistent and predictable. Finally, we believe it has a great management team which knows how to give conservative guidance and create a beat-and-raise dynamic over the course of several quarters. Yet the stock trades with irrationally large swings. When we made our original investment last October, we felt Dave was trading at far too cheap a multiple on our own internal estimates: we were at $17.00/share for 2026 while at the time the sell side was around $12.00. So on our estimates, we were buying Dave at 11x earnings when it was growing earnings at north of 30% per year. We predicted that sell-side expectations would have to move dramatically higher. That is exactly what happened, and while we continued buying through February of this year, the stock has now become fairly valued and, as mentioned, is trading towards the high end of its historical range, which is why we exited the position. Maintaining sell discipline is one of the cornerstones of our process. But Dave is still a stock we would like to own at the right valuations. |
| LQDA | Liquidia continues to be the gift that keeps on giving. At our average cost, we bought LQDA at around 1.5x our estimates for 2027 earnings and ~1x 2028 earnings. We originally purchased LQDA at $5.00/share; our average cost is around $9.00, and today the shares trade at around $78. We have continually adjusted our delta-adjusted position size using options as a risk management tool, but LQDA has still been our largest contributor YTD, up over 100% so far this year. We are still waiting on Judge Andrews' decision on whether LQDA will be able to sell its Yutrepia product for PH-ILD (pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease), a ruling that is likely to occur sometime soon. Despite the stock's appreciation, we still feel there is 50%+ upside to what an acquirer would pay for the business today. We believe Andrews will rule in LQDA's favor, and that an acquirer is likely to come in shortly after the ruling. |
| ROOT | We exited most of our Root position at a substantial loss. While we hope to reenter the position in the future, we underestimated how long and how deep the industry headwinds ROOT is facing will persist. Given how soft the commercial auto insurance market is currently, it will be very hard for ROOT to execute in the near term. ROOT is our one material mistake this year thus far, but we have a significant chance of making that money back eventually in the position, as we still believe the long-term story is compelling. |
| BFIT.AS | We wrote about Basic-Fit in July 2025, when the market was penalizing the company for one-time expenses relating to the conversion of its gyms in France to staffless and 24/7 operations. The stock is up ~35% so far since we wrote about it, but we believe the real benefits are yet to materialize. Specifically, the new 24/7 gyms should see an increase in their customer base, which is critical for gyms because the incremental margins on new members are very high. Going staffless also increases margins for each gym. We should see these benefits realized over the next few months. BFIT is pursuing similar opportunities in Spain, having extended operating hours there by four hours for 105 gyms (from 6 am- 12 am). We are also very excited by the November 2025 acquisition of Clever Fit, whose gyms are concentrated in German-speaking countries. The company negotiated with its new Clever Fit franchisees through Q1 2026 and is now in a better position to start realizing the synergies from this acquisition. While the newly acquired Clever Fit gyms will need some investment to bring them to the BFIT standard, this investment should allow them to meaningfully increase their revenue per gym. The acquisition will also allow BFIT to increase its presence over a geographic area that now includes 12 European countries. Germany is particularly exciting, as Clever Fit was the largest gym brand there and BFIT recently acquired another 40 gyms in Germany via the Wellyou acquisition in June 2026. Finally, the Clever Fit deal should improve BFIT's ROIC and cash flow margins because it increases its focus on franchising. We believe BFIT has a very strong chance of a significant re-rating in the back half of this year. The stock is trading around 6.4x our estimate of 2026 EBITDA, with EBITDA growing very quickly over the next few years. We believe it should be trading closer to 9-10x EBITDA, and that BFIT can double over the next 12-24 months. |
| CELH | Celsius is a new position for us. We are attracted to the relatively low cyclicality and strong secular growth of the business. The energy drinks industry is growing at high single to low double digits, and CELH will maintain or likely grow its market share over time. Additionally, Monster Beverage, its main comp, has 31.5% EBITDA margins and is one of the best-performing stocks of the last 30 years. MNST trades at 42x 2026 estimated earnings while CELH trades at 19x. More importantly, CELH trades at closer to 12x our estimate of 2027 earnings while MNST trades at 37x. This huge delta should converge as CELH is facing some short-term issues that we believe will clear up in the next few months. The first is the company's need to rationalize its portfolio of SKUs, which is currently in process. The Celsius brand overall has been showing negative growth, but as the SKU count rationalization completes, the remaining SKUs should grow at double digits, and this headwind will shift to a tailwind. Additionally, CELH is getting significantly more distribution over the next 6-12 months, with a 17% increase expected. The negotiations for the increased shelf space are done, but there is a delay in implementation due to hardware installs which are underway. Lastly, Red Bull is raising prices by high single digits in the next 9 months, and we believe CELH will get the chance to follow shortly afterward. With multiple tailwinds in 2027 and easy comps, we believe consensus estimates of 8% revenue growth only give CELH credit for the price increases, and ignore the additional upside from the upcoming SKU rationalization, the significant distribution gains, and the high growth of the company's newest brand, Alani Nu, which is currently growing 30%+ per year. Once the company gets through its current slowdown (much of which is deliberate, as CELH is slowing down innovation while it focuses on the integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar, their integration into Pepsi's distribution system, and the SKU rationalization), it plans on accelerating new launches. Putting all these together, we think CELH can generate around $2.25-2.50/share in EPS in 2027, and it should trade at 20-30x earnings, leading to a $50-$60/stock versus $30 today. We think by 2030, CELH can do around $4.00/share in earnings, which would lead to an $80-$120 stock by then. We think there is a very low probability of downside at today's levels, given that the shares are trading at such a low multiple with such strong growth potential over the next few years. |
| LNW | Light & Wonder is a leading global gaming company that develops and distributes casino content across land-based, online, and mobile channels. Its core gaming business supplies slot machines, table products, and casino management systems to operators worldwide, through both outright sales and a growing base of leased machines that generate recurring revenue from a share of daily play. The company monetizes this same game library digitally through SciPlay, its social casino mobile business, and through iGaming, which delivers real-money online casino content to operators via its platform. It also owns Grover Gaming, the leading supplier of electronic pull-tab games for charitable gaming in the US. LNW is the second-largest slot supplier globally behind Aristocrat. LNW is undergoing a transformation rooted in a wholesale management change. Chairman Jamie Odell and Deputy Chair Toni Korsanos are the team that drove Aristocrat's decade of industry dominance, and they recruited CEO Matt Wilson (also ex-Aristocrat) to run the same playbook of investing heavily in game content and letting hit franchises compound. This team set aggressive 2025 targets in 2022 ($1.4B in adjusted EBITDA ex-Grover) and came remarkably close to achieving them despite real setbacks, falling slightly short only because litigation forced the company to remove its hit game Dragon Train. The team has now set 2028 targets of $2.0B in adjusted EBITDA and >$10.55 in EPS (we are at ~$13.00), which we believe imply ~150%+ upside for the stock if achieved given today's depressed valuation multiple. The street doesn't believe them — consensus sits well below the targets — but we think this skepticism is irrational: this is a credible management team with a track record of achieving targets it sets. Based on our several conversations with management, we believe there is actually deliberate conservatism in the targets. Notably, management intentionally does not give a precise path to the numbers, leaving them open-ended so that if one part of the business underperforms, they can make it up elsewhere. Moreover, beyond the $2B target sits a stack of free options that management has deliberately excluded from its guidance: US iGaming and video lottery terminal (VLT) legalization in additional states, international iGaming expansion (the Philippines is already live, the UAE is coming), Grover legalizations in additional states, and carbon/AI-driven cost efficiency. LNW is trading at its lowest multiple in five years — ~7.4x EBITDA vs. Aristocrat (ALL) at 14.8x, a ~7-turn gap vs. a historical average of 3-4 turns. This gap is the widest ever, despite LNW being the faster-growing business with similar EBITDA margins. The gap versus ALL is attributable to two linked items: higher leverage and lower FCF conversion. We believe that cash conversion is at an inflection point and should materially improve going forward. Cash conversion was hit over the last few years due to non-recurring items (the Dragon Train legal case, which was a headwind in 2024 and 2025 and was settled in Q1 2026; and one-time restructuring costs relating to the Grover acquisition). Ultimately, this will improve FCF conversion, reduce debt and leverage, and decrease annual cash interest, leading to further improvement in FCF conversion. The company has accelerated its stock buyback program as well. In Q2 2026, the company spent ~$134M to repurchase 2% of its shares outstanding. With ~$180M left under the current buyback program, we see no reason why the company will decelerate. It will likely buy back another 2% of shares in Q3 2026. At a bare minimum, the buybacks will mean the company handily exceeds EPS estimates going forward. The recent share price weakness stems largely from one quarter of soft market share data, which we believe the market is misreading. Quarterly ship-share in this industry is heavily skewed by the timing of launches of new cabinets (the fundamental physical hardware unit of the gaming industry). Aristocrat is currently enjoying a successful new cabinet launch, while LNW's new hardware slate is weighted to the second half of the year — so a single quarter of headline weakness says little about underlying competitive position. Australia is the clearest example. Earlier this year, the market grew worried about LNW's Australian share decline, but this too was caused by launch timing: customers simply stop buying an old cabinet when a new one is on the horizon, and LNW's share fell ahead of its refresh. The new Cosmic Dual Screen cabinet has since launched in Australia, and based on our conversations with the team, it has been a success — we expect Australian share to normalize as it rolls out. The same setup now applies to the US, where LNW's second-half slate — the Cosmic Sky and Landmark 7000 premium cabinets, new for-sale hardware, and a deep pipeline of franchise content — is just beginning to hit casino floors. As these launches roll out, we expect the market share data to inflect, and the stock to inflect with it. We're also excited about the Grover acquisition, which closed in May 2025. The purchase price was $850M upfront plus up to $200M in revenue-based earn-outs, or just 7.7x 2024 EBITDA for a business that grew revenue at a 29% two-year CAGR and has ~82% margins. Grover is the dominant, vertically integrated provider of electronic pull-tabs — regulated gaming devices in VFW halls, American Legion posts, and local bars, where a portion of proceeds funds charities — with 10,000+ leased devices with recurring revenue-share economics across 1,500 low-churn customers. The runway waterfall is what makes this compelling: paper pull-tabs are legal in 39 states, e-pull-tabs in just 11, and Grover operates in only 5 (North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, New Hampshire) — so there's room for Grover to expand share where it already operates, to expand into already-legal states, and to take advantage of legalization in additional states. Minnesota and Maryland are the two priority already-legal states, while Indiana legalized in 2025 following the acquisition, and Grover is already #2 there with ~20% share within a year of entry, and charities themselves are lobbying for legalization in new states. Critically, neither the deal model nor management's $2B 2028 target underwrites any new-state expansion — that's all free optionality. Within existing states, venues have capacity for more units and same-store growth remains healthy. There are also content synergy opportunities with the rest of LNW's business: the company has spent billions on slot R&D over decades, and can now layer proven franchises onto Grover's installed base — even redeploying depreciated premium gaming-ops units into the charitable channel at strong incremental returns. In summary, LNW is a high-growth, high-margin, hardware-anchored, regulated recurring-revenue business (~73% recurring revenue vs 65% in 2024), driving what should be an Aristocrat-style valuation re-rating — and it's insulated from AI disruption. |
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