| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 13% |
Bumbershoot Holdings generated a 13.02% return in 2025, positioning between major benchmarks through steady performance with minimal volatility. The fund's core thesis centers on disciplined selection in an increasingly narrative-driven market where credible investment opportunities are narrowing. Technology sector gains led by Alphabet, Micron, First Solar and Camtek drove core performance, while materials exposure through fertilizer companies and Barrick Mining contributed positively. The manager anticipates a substantial next reflation cycle, where liquidity will flood into financial assets and businesses with credible narratives. Key risks include elevated market valuations, investor complacency, and the potential deflationary impact of AI on employment and SaaS ecosystems. The strategy emphasizes holding concentrated positions longer rather than rotating quickly, as fewer quality opportunities exist. With uncertainty rising and selection becoming paramount, the fund is positioned to capitalize on the manager's deep research process and conviction-weighted approach across technology, industrial, and materials sectors.
In an increasingly narrative-driven market with narrowing opportunity sets, disciplined selection and concentrated conviction in undervalued assets across technology, materials, and industrial sectors will drive superior returns through the next reflation cycle.
The manager is as excited about the opportunity set as any time since starting the company. The market remains narrative-driven and split between favored and out-of-favor assets. Selection will be paramount as uncertainty rises and credible investment narratives become scarcer. The fund is exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of whatever comes next.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CAMT, CF, CTRA, FSLR, Gold, GOOGL, HRI, IPI, KGF.L, LGND, MDGL, MU, NPKI, NTR, ORN, OSIS, OSK, VKTX, VMEO, VPG | Concentration, liquidity, Multi-Strat, Reflation, Selection, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Bumbershoot delivered 13% returns through concentrated positions in technology, materials, and industrials while preparing for the next substantial reflation cycle. As market narratives narrow and credible opportunities become scarce, the fund's disciplined selection process and willingness to hold concentrated positions longer positions it well for an environment where stock-picking expertise will be paramount. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AGM, BOX, CAMT, CF, CTRA, FSLR, GOOGL, HERC, IPI, KEX, LGND, MDGL, MOS, NR, NTR, ORN, OSIS, VKTX, VLO, WTTR, ZM | AI, Fertilizers, healthcare, Micro Cap, small caps, technology, value | - | Bumbershoot returned 5.65% in 2024 despite December volatility, maintaining positions in quality businesses across technology, healthcare and fertilizers. Manager questions AI investment narrative driving market concentration while exploring Fed policy challenges. Despite underperformance versus narrow market leadership, fund stays committed to process-driven approach targeting durable businesses at fair valuations. |
| May 3 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AE, AGM, AXR, BOX, BRK-B, CTRA, EVLV, FEIM, GENC, GHM, GOOGL, HCCI, HSII, IMKTA, KVHI, LGND, MDLZ, MSTR, MU, NR, ORN, PATI, PLAB, STXS, VKTX, ZION | Biotechnology, Fertilizers, fundamentals, healthcare, small caps, value | - | Bumbershoot delivered 5.82% returns in 2023 despite challenging fundamentals-driven environment. Viking Therapeutics led gains on GLP-1 results while fertilizer holdings detracted. Fund maintains value investing conviction amid momentum-driven markets favoring mega-caps. Core exposure below targets with plans to rebuild across new ideas. Firm expanded with new partner addition. |
| Nov 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 22 2022 | 2021 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 20 2021 | 2020 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
ValuationPrice is emphasized as the key variable in investment decisions, with the manager arguing that when entry price is low, investments can perform well even under challenging conditions. The portfolio's implied real IRR currently stands at 11.6% annually, down from over 15% at end of 2024 due to market appreciation. |
Price Discipline Margin of Safety IRR Risk Premium DCF |
BrazilThe manager discusses Brazil's electoral environment and political uncertainty, noting that while elections influence short-term prices, long-term performance is more driven by valuation than political outcomes. They emphasize that Brazil changes less than headlines suggest and that well-run companies tend to endure through cycles. |
Elections Political Risk Institutional Risk Country Risk | |
Risk ManagementThe letter emphasizes stress testing, scenario analysis, and the importance of margin of safety. The manager advocates for evaluating not only base cases but also adverse scenarios to assess investment resilience and reduce reliance on single favorable outcomes. |
Stress Testing Scenario Analysis Downside Protection Capital Preservation | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager extensively discusses AI investment narrative driving markets, questioning whether foundational AI layers remain investable versus application layers. Explores AI's transformational potential and market concentration around AI-related mega-cap stocks. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning GPUs LLMs Foundational |
FertilizersLong-held positioning in agricultural-fertilizer sector through multiple holdings including Intrepid Potash, Nutrien, CF Industries and Mosaic was a detractor for the year. Manager remains highly constructive about long-term fundamentals within the fertilizer industry. |
Agriculture Potash Nitrogen Crop Protection Ag Chemicals | |
BiotechnologyHealthcare sector gains led by Madrigal and Ligand, with focus on biopharmaceutical royalties and metabolic disorders. Madrigal's Rezdiffra was approved as first NASH/MASH treatment, with largest exposures in Ligand, Madrigal and Viking Therapeutics. |
Pharmaceuticals Rare Diseases Drug Development FDA Approval Royalties | |
Infrastructure SpendingPlaying theme of infrastructure spending and energy sustainability through positions in Industrial and Energy sectors including OSI Systems, Coterra, Kirby, Herc Holdings and Valero that contributed to results. |
Industrial Energy Sustainability Capital Investment Equipment | |
| 2023 Q4 |
FertilizersThe fund maintains significant exposure to agricultural-fertilizer sector with positions in Intrepid Potash, Nutrien, Mosaic, and CF Industries. Despite being a significant detractor for the year, the manager remains highly constructive about long-term fundamentals within the fertilizer industry. |
Potash Nitrogen Agriculture Commodity Chemicals |
GLP1Viking Therapeutics was the largest contributor to Core gains, increasing substantially following positive early-stage results with its dual GLP-1/GIP compound VK2735 and top-line results from its Phase 2b VOYAGE study of VK2809 in biopsy-confirmed NASH. The combined position in Viking/Ligand/Madrigal/OmniAb represented the largest weighting within the Healthcare sector. |
Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals Drug Development | |
ValueThe manager emphasizes that every investor is a value investor, stating that the opposite of value is not growth but just a bad deal. The fund focuses on fundamentals-driven investing in an environment where only certain fundamental aspects are deemed worthy, with money flowing into select winners through momentum effects. |
Fundamentals Undervalued Quality |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CAMT | Core gains were led by investments in the Technology sector including Camtek |
| CF | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via CF Industries was a positive contributor to results |
| CTRA | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, Coterra added positively to performance |
| FSLR | First Solar is a vertically integrated leading manufacturer of solar panels manufactured in the US. The company differentiates itself by using thin-film Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) technology which offers better performance versus traditional silicon panels in hot/humid/low light conditions and is ultimately more efficient and economical for large scale deployment. An added tailwind has come from the Trump Administration's One Big Beautiful Bill which has driven US demand for non-China solar products. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HRI | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, Herc Holdings added positively to performance |
| IPI | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via Intrepid Potash was a positive contributor to results |
| KGF.L | Home improvement retailer, Kingfisher, finally started to turn things around… perhaps Europe does still count for something after all |
| LGND | The Healthcare sector was once again led by Ligand |
| MDGL | The Healthcare sector was once again led by Madrigal |
| MU | Core gains were led by investments in the Technology sector including Micron |
| NPKI | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as NPK International continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| NTR | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via Nutrien was a positive contributor to results |
| ORN | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as Orion Group continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| OSIS | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, OSI Systems added positively to performance |
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) was added to the SMID strategy in the fourth quarter. OSK is a global manufacturer of specialized vehicles and equipment used in essential and mission-critical applications. The company operates across three primary segments: Access equipment, Vocational vehicles, and Transport, serving customers in construction, airport and municipal services, fire and emergency response, defense, and delivery markets. |
| VKTX | Healthcare sector was more than offset by losses in Viking Therapeutics. While Viking has been a roller-coaster over the past couple of years, we remain optimistic as it moves VK2735 into multiple Ph3 trials |
| VMEO | Micro strategy had a standout performance, led by a notable attribution from Vimeo, which was acquired during the year |
| VPG | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as Vishay Precision Group continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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