| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.9% | 2.0% | 7.4% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 7.4% | 28.4% |
Burke Wealth Management's Ken Burke expresses optimism for 2026 following a tumultuous 2025 marked by trade policy restructuring and continued AI revolution momentum. The core thesis centers on AI infrastructure investment being fundamentally different from the dot.com bubble, as current compute capacity cannot meet existing demand driven by three mega-trends: CPU to GPU transition in data centers, AI-powered recommender systems replacing traditional ones, and emerging robotics applications. The manager views infrastructure buildout as the most secure AI investment opportunity, explaining continued positions in Nvidia and ASML plus new Micron investment. Portfolio changes included adding Alphabet back after regulatory concerns subsided, while consolidating enterprise software exposure into platform companies ServiceNow and Salesforce by exiting Adobe due to AI disintermediation risks. The Trump administration's growth-focused policies and deregulation agenda provide a favorable equity backdrop. Key risks include AI bubble concerns and potential tariff volatility from Supreme Court rulings. The manager expects 2026 to be quieter politically while AI investment themes continue driving portfolio positioning and market dynamics.
The manager believes the AI revolution is fundamentally different from the dot.com bubble because current compute capacity cannot satisfy existing demand, driven by three mega-trends: CPU to GPU transition, AI-driven recommender systems, and future robotics applications, making infrastructure investments the most secure part of the AI value chain.
We look towards 2026 with a sense of optimism. The Trump administration has made a heavy bet on domestic growth and we think that is a favorable macro backdrop for equities. The AI revolution continues to prove both exhilarating and challenging for investors to digest but ultimately, we think the investment occurring today is going to unleash unparalleled productivity gains, albeit with a serving or two of disruption along the way. We like the way our portfolio is positioned for this new environment.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, ADBE, ASML, BWXT, CMCSA, CRM, GOOGL, ISRG, META, MU, NOW, NVDA, ORCL, SNOW, TDG | AI, Data centers, Enterprise Software, growth, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy | - | The AI revolution continues to gain steam with expectations for a slowdown in data center infrastructure spend proving incorrect. The manager believes the current AI… |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASML NA, BWXT, CHTR, CRM, MU, NOW | Artificial Intelligence, Enterprise Software, Nuclear Energy, semiconductors, Trade Policy | - | The quarter was shaped by a pro-growth US Policy backdrop combining tariffs, manufacturing reshoring, and corporate tax reform, creating a supportive environment for domestic investment… |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABNB, BWXT, NVDA, NVO, SNOW, UBER | innovation, scalability, secular growth, Valuation discipline, volatility | - | The letter focuses on secular growth businesses with long runways and scalable models. Management highlights patience through volatility and disciplined valuation. Growth is framed as… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABT, CHTR, CRM, ICE, NOW, NVDA, TDG, UNH | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ADBE, AMZN, CHTR, CRWD, GOOG, NVO, SNOW, UEEC | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Data CentersComfort Systems USA benefited from robust demand for data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the company reporting stronger-than-expected revenue driven by this demand. |
Infrastructure Technology Construction AI Revenue | |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor represents the dominant manufacturer for leading fabless chip designers including NVIDIA, Apple, and Broadcom. The global arms race to develop artificial general intelligence will support multiple years of robust growth for foundries with leading-edge capabilities. |
Foundries Advanced Process AI Chips Manufacturing Technology Leadership | |
SoftwareThe fund maintains significant exposure to enterprise software companies, particularly cybersecurity and systems software. They believe complexity of enterprise integration protects established players from AI disruption, with companies like Dynatrace, Varonis, and SentinelOne offering defensive moats through proven resilience and security. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Cybersecurity Systems Software Cloud | |
Trade PolicyTariff headwinds are set to peak in 4Q25 with most tariffs having been paused and only starting to have economic effect at the end of 3Q25. US tariff collections have spiked to an annualized run rate of over US $300 billion which could effectively add up to 2.0 percent of GDP fiscal drag on the consumer. |
Inflation Growth Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Policy |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | The largest 10 companies, by market capitalization, had reached 40.7% of the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, up from roughly 30% at the end of 2021. At the top of this list are Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Broadcom (AVGO), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA). Apple: Market capitalization near $4 trillion. A double requires creating a company larger than the size of Walmart, JPMorgan, and Pfizer combined. |
| ADBE | Later in the quarter we initiated Adobe, a stock we have held before, where we believe AI is more likely to enhance the product suite than disrupt it. |
| ASML | ASML is the largest constituent of the MSCI EAFE Index as the critical toolmaker in the AI ecosystem. |
| BWXT | Positive returns from BWX Technologies were not enough to offset the detractors |
| CMCSA | Within the portfolio, stocks like AutoZone, Comcast, and Zoetis were all punished for having perceived headwinds to already lowered expectations for growth. |
| CRM | We trimmed Salesforce Inc. |
| GOOGL | I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Larry Page, co-founder of Google |
| ISRG | We were pleased to see patience rewarded with a bounce back in various healthcare concerns such as Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX), which posted meaningful gains. |
| META | Meta was cited as a larger position that contributed little despite what I thought was positive operating progress, representing opportunity cost in the portfolio. |
| MU | We took a position in Micron Technology early in the quarter to gain exposure to high-bandwidth memory, a clear bottleneck in chip development. The position was later sold for a solid gain. |
| NOW | In the case of ServiceNow, the stock weakened following reports of a potential large acquisition while the company has also been challenged by bearish sentiment across the software as a service or SAAS segment. |
| NVDA | Nvidia sits at the top of the S&P 500 as the designer in the AI ecosystem. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. |
| SNOW | Snowflake is a popular cloud-based platform that provides comprehensive data warehousing services, mainly for large businesses. By being cloud native, Snowflake helps companies more easily store, analyze and share their data across an entire organization, which has become a crucial ingredient for companies prioritizing IT infrastructure upgrades that can incorporate more AI functionality. A recently expanded partnership with Anthropic highlights how the company is quickly deepening its AI capabilities. Competition is fierce, but Snowflake has become the leading player in cloud data storage, especially for those companies looking for an agnostic solution that can support the multiple hyperscalers that many companies employ. Snowflake's unique and dominant position in the data warehousing market, in what should be a high-growth profitable and sticky business over time, makes the company an attractive investment. |
| TDG | TransDigm is a leading aerospace parts supplier that designs and produces highly engineered components for almost every commercial and military aircraft in service today. TransDigm has spent the last 30 years building a portfolio of hundreds of thousands of parts with these characteristics. And while each part breaks unpredictably and infrequently, by assembling this vast portfolio, they have essentially created a collection of near monopolies that create an incredibly smooth and high pricing power annuity stream. |
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