| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The final quarter of 2025 capped a standout year shaped by Donald Trump's political actions and accelerating AI momentum. Technology companies are pouring billions into data center construction, creating concerns about potential market corrections. U.S. indices experienced heightened volatility while emerging markets, led by South Korea's 84% rally, significantly outpaced U.S. equities. European markets also outperformed with Euro Stoxx 600 gaining 36.8% versus S&P 500's 17.9%. Bond markets showed mixed dynamics with corporate credit spreads narrowing to historic lows. Precious metals rallied on debasement fears while oil declined on supply concerns. The Federal Reserve postponed easing until year-end, prompting reassessment of future rate cuts. Geopolitical risks included ceasefire deals and ongoing sanctions. Looking ahead to 2026, strategists project continued but more moderate equity returns driven by AI integration across industries. Monetary and fiscal stimuli should provide support, particularly for Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities, while geopolitical developments will influence risk asset flows.
The market outlook for 2026 remains constructive with continued but more moderate equity returns expected, driven by ongoing AI integration across industries and supported by monetary and fiscal stimuli, particularly benefiting Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities.
Most market strategists project continued, though more moderate, equity returns compared with the robust gains of the past three years. Growth is expected to be underpinned by ongoing AI integration across industries. Monetary and fiscal stimuli should provide further support, with more upside for Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities. Geopolitical developments will influence risk assets and safe-haven flows.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Data centers, emerging markets, geopolitics, rates, technology | - | The AI revolution is accelerating with technology companies pouring billions into data center construction. Investment in AI is surging but concerns exist that the relentless pace could trigger a sharp market correction. Growth is expected to be underpinned by ongoing AI integration across industries in 2026. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, earnings resilience, emerging markets, Global Growth, Rate Cuts | - | The third-quarter review highlights a strong global equity rally supported by Fed rate cuts, easing trade tensions, and resilient corporate earnings. AI-driven technology leadership persisted, while emerging markets outperformed on dollar weakness and improving risk appetite. Capital Group emphasizes selective positioning as valuations rise, favoring regions and sectors with earnings durability amid late-cycle conditions. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Artificial Intelligence, emerging markets, Global Equities, sector rotation, Weak Dollar | - | Global equities advanced strongly in a volatile quarter as easing trade tensions and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence drove a broad market rally. U.S. technology stocks led returns, while a sharply weaker U.S. dollar boosted non-U.S. equities and emerging markets. Capital Group notes improving conditions for diversification as currency moves, rate-cut expectations, and sector dispersion create a more balanced opportunity set. |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Artificial Intelligence, diversification, Equity Volatility, Global Markets, Trade Policy | - | The market review highlights heightened volatility driven by trade policy uncertainty, sticky inflation, and diverging central bank paths early in 2025. Equity performance was led by U.S. technology and AI-related stocks, while rate-sensitive sectors and international markets lagged amid dollar strength. Capital Group emphasizes diversification across regions and sectors as policy uncertainty and valuation dispersion create both risks and selective opportunities. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
| 2025 Q3 |
EM |
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Growth |
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RateCuts |
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| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DollarDollar depreciated -9% against trading partners in 2025, worst year since 2017. De-dollarization trend accelerating as world shifts away from US. Reduced net dollar exposure from 25% to 8% following geopolitical tensions and superpower positioning concerns. |
Depreciation De-dollarization Reserves Geopolitical | |
Rebound |
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| 2025 Q1 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Policy |
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VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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