| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | -5.6% | 0.1% | 4.7% |
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond delivered +0.56% in Q4 2025 and +0.45% for the full year, outperforming its benchmark by 6.50% annually. The fund's performance was primarily driven by emerging market hard-currency debt exposure, which benefited from strong carry, improving fundamentals, and Fed easing. Corporate credit in financials and energy sectors also contributed positively. Interest rate strategies provided mixed but overall supportive returns through German curve steepening and long positions in Brazilian and South African bonds, partially offset by losses on short French government debt positions. Foreign exchange strategies detracted as US dollar depreciation against the euro impacted performance despite limited dollar exposure. The portfolio actively managed duration between 4-6 until September before reducing to around 3 at year-end. Looking forward, the fund maintains a balanced and cautious stance with moderate duration of 3.1, significant emerging market exposure, and selective positioning across developed markets. Key risks include persistent political uncertainty, trade tensions, and fiscal sustainability concerns, while catalysts include continued central bank easing and improving emerging market fundamentals.
Global bond strategy focused on emerging market hard-currency debt and selective duration positioning across developed markets, capitalizing on central bank easing cycles while managing risks from trade tensions and fiscal concerns.
Maintains balanced and cautious positioning in context of persistent uncertainty, end-of-cycle valuations, and trade tensions. Portfolio holds moderate duration of 3.1 with selective approach across regions, significant emerging market exposure, and limited US dollar positioning.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Central Banks, Currency, duration, emerging markets, fixed income, Global Bonds, inflation, Trade Policy | - | Central banks pivoted to easing with Fed delivering three rate cuts between September and December. Duration was actively managed between 4-6 until September, then reduced to around 3 at year-end. Portfolio maintains moderate duration of 3.1 with selective positioning across regions. Emerging market hard-currency debt was the main performance contributor, benefiting from strong carry, improving fundamentals, moderating inflation, and Fed easing. Portfolio maintains significant exposure supported by attractive real yields, particularly in Brazil and Eastern Europe. Trump's return triggered volatility with early tariff announcements against Canada, Mexico and China. Liberation Day reciprocal tariff announcements in April caused equity crash and rates volatility. Trade tensions weighed on investor confidence and contributed to US dollar depreciation. Persistent inflation near 3% in Japan led to rate hikes. US maintained short duration and long breakeven inflation positioning as expectations for rate cuts appear overly optimistic given resilient growth and inflation still above target. |
| Oct 21 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Bonds, fiscal policy, gold, inflation | - | The fund outperformed its benchmark with strong contributions from technology and gold miners. Managers emphasized AI as a key growth driver, supported by fiscal expansion and accommodative monetary policy. They remain cautious on inflation resurgence and maintain exposure to gold, inflation-linked bonds, and defensive hedges amid higher long-term rates. |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | diversification, flexibility, gold, Hedging, Macro Uncertainty | - | The letter stresses multi-asset diversification amid heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Management favors equities, gold, and active hedging while remaining cautious on rates. Flexibility and risk management are core pillars. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Emerging marketsGlobal equities, especially those outside the U.S., powered equity returns. In emerging markets, shares of companies linked to commodities were the strongest performers as commodities rallied. Even after a strong year for international and emerging markets shares, we still see some of the best value in the world in these areas. |
International Commodities Non-US Best Value |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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