| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Following three consecutive years of strong gains, the S&P 500 delivered 17.9% returns in 2025 despite significant headwinds including a tariff tantrum, 43-day government shutdown, and AI bubble concerns. Mega-cap growth stocks continued their leadership with superior earnings growth, while sector performance remained narrow with only Communication Services, Information Technology, and Industrials outperforming. The AI investment cycle remains robust with companies reporting strong returns on data center investments and household adoption accelerating faster than any prior technology. Private credit concerns following Tricolor and First Brands defaults appear isolated rather than systemic. The Fed continued easing with two quarter-point cuts, bringing rates to 3.50-3.75%, with markets expecting additional cuts in 2026. REITs underperformed expectations at 3% returns despite strong fundamentals and declining yields. Looking ahead, the market appears positioned for 7-9% gains in 2026 supported by AI capex buildout, consumer spending, and Fed easing, though trade policy and geopolitical tensions remain key risks requiring diversified positioning.
Despite multiple concerns including tariff tantrums, government shutdown, and AI bubble fears, markets delivered strong returns supported by earnings growth, rate cuts, and sustained consumer spending, with outlook remaining positive for 2026 driven by AI investment cycle, Fed easing, and economic momentum.
Market appears poised for another move higher in 2026 with baseline projection of 7-9% gains assuming modest valuation contraction and accelerating earnings growth. Economy growing strongly supported by AI capex buildout, consumer spending, and easing Fed. International markets may see more earnings-driven returns after 2025 re-rating.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | RMZ | AI, Bonds, Fed policy, international, private credit, Rate Cuts, REITs | - | AI buildout continues with aggressive capex plans through the decade. Household adoption is occurring faster than any prior major technology. Companies report strong earnings growth and material returns on data center investments. Demand is real, cycle is young, and picks and shovels providers likely to see years of significant earnings growth. Fourth quarter saw concerns over private credit market health following defaults of auto-lender Tricolor and auto parts supplier First Brands. These appear to be isolated fraud instances rather than systemic problems. Concerns have faded as economic fundamentals remain healthy. REITs underperformed expectations with 3% return versus 10-15% forecast. Despite strong fundamentals and declining Treasury yields, AFFO multiples compressed. Healthcare, industrial, and regional malls outperformed while office, data centers, and self-storage struggled. Outlook remains optimistic for multiple expansion. Fed continued rate cutting with 0.25% reductions in October and December, bringing Fed Funds to 3.50-3.75%. Market expects 2 additional cuts in 2026. Debate continues over appropriate policy given strong GDP growth versus rising unemployment and housing recession. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Fed policy, Global Equities, productivity, Rate Cuts |
NVDA INTC |
Chilton highlights AI as a long-term productivity driver across sectors, supporting earnings and global GDP growth. The letter also discusses the Feds rate cuts as supportive for equities and fixed income, and the divergence between U.S. and international performance. It stresses diversification amid tariff, fiscal, and geopolitical uncertainty. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | cash flow, Competitive Advantage, Compounding, Quality, volatility | - | The letter focuses on owning high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages and strong management teams. Chilton emphasizes resilience through cycles, consistent cash generation, and prudent capital allocation as drivers of compounding returns. Market volatility is viewed as an opportunity to add to proven franchises. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 22 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 13 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Private CreditThe space has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Lending Risk | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Real EstateThe portfolio includes exposure to various real estate segments including self-storage (CubeSmart facing occupancy pressures), wireless tower infrastructure (SBA Communications), life sciences real estate (Alexandria Real Estate), and single-family rentals (Invitation Homes). The sector faces headwinds from higher interest rates and housing market challenges. |
REITs Interest Rates Housing Infrastructure Occupancy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Global Markets |
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RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
QualityThe company emphasizes investing in businesses with excellent economics, durable competitive advantages, and high-integrity management. This quality focus is evident in concentrated equity holdings and operating business acquisitions. |
Durable Advantages Management Quality Economic Moats Competitive Position |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bradley J. Eixmann | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenter, GPUs, growth, Hardware, leadership, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bradley J. Eixmann | INTC | Intel Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | CapEx, Chips, manufacturing, recovery, semiconductors, turnaround | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| RMZ | In the fourth quarter of 2025, the MSCI US REIT Index (RMZ) produced a total return of -1.7%, which brought calendar year 2025 total return to +3.0%. This compares to our original forecast of +10-15% for the year. |
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