| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Chilton Capital navigated a volatile first quarter where markets initially reached new highs in January before the Iran war caused significant pullback, with the S&P 500 ending down 4.4%. The conflict spiked oil prices over 50% and introduced meaningful risks to global growth, particularly affecting Asia and Europe due to their oil import dependence. Market leadership shifted dramatically as value stocks in Energy and Materials outperformed growth names in Technology, while the equal weight S&P 500 outperformed the cap-weighted index. The firm maintains that technology valuations have become attractive despite multiple contraction, positioning these sectors for rebounds when expected growth materializes. Key investment themes include defense spending driven by security risks, continued AI infrastructure despite near-term uncertainty, and commercial real estate where significant M&A activity is expected. The team actively used market volatility to upgrade portfolios while maintaining balanced positioning. Looking forward, a more tempered mid-single-digit return outlook seems appropriate given geopolitical uncertainty, though strong earnings fundamentals remain intact once the conflict resolves.
Despite geopolitical volatility from the Iran war causing market pullback, the firm maintains a balanced approach with strong earnings outlook intact, positioning in defensive themes like defense and value while using market volatility to upgrade portfolios with new opportunities.
More tempered outlook for full year 2026 market returns is warranted due to Iran war developments. Mid-single-digit return currently seems more likely than previous high-single-digit return outlook, though this would still represent greater than 9% gain from quarter-end. Markets expected to bounce back from oversold conditions once favorable resolution reached due to continued strong earnings outlook, but timing uncertain and lower valuation multiple should be applied due to expectation for higher inflation and rates.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17 2026 | 2026 Q1 | NSA, PSA, VRE | AI, defense, energy, Geopolitical, Iran, REITs, value | - | Iran war volatility created attractive entry points across defensive themes. Value outperformed growth as energy prices spiked, but technology multiples compressed to attractive levels. Defense spending and REIT M&A remain compelling themes. Team upgraded portfolios during volatility while maintaining balanced positioning. Mid-single-digit returns likely for 2026 given geopolitical uncertainty, but strong earnings outlook intact. |
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | RMZ | AI, Bonds, Fed policy, international, private credit, Rate Cuts, REITs | - | Markets overcame multiple 2025 headwinds to deliver strong returns, led by mega-cap growth and AI investment cycle momentum. Fed easing continues with more cuts expected in 2026. Despite concerns over private credit and AI bubbles, fundamentals remain solid with earnings growth supporting 7-9% market gains projected for 2026 amid ongoing economic expansion. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | INTC, NVDA | AI, earnings, Margins, Rate Cuts, REITs, technology, Trade Policy |
NVDA INTC |
Market gains appear justified by record corporate margins, AI-driven productivity gains, and Fed easing despite Trump administration policy noise. Peak trade uncertainty likely behind us, though sector-specific tariffs remain a risk. Earnings acceleration expected into 2026-27 with AI providing massive long-term tailwinds. REITs positioned for recovery as rate cuts support valuations. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, BXP, DOV, HIW | earnings, fixed income, Global Markets, Rate Cuts, REITs, tariffs, technology | - | Markets rebounded strongly from tariff-driven volatility as American companies demonstrated exceptional adaptability in shifting supply chains. Expected Fed rate cuts and policy tailwinds including deregulation position markets for potential double-digit gains in 2026-2027, though current all-time high valuations and ongoing tariff uncertainty may limit near-term upside despite continued earnings growth momentum. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | growth, international, rates, REITs, Trade Policy, value, volatility | - | Chilton navigated Q1 volatility with REIT strategy delivering 3.9% returns and 280bps alpha amid Trump policy uncertainty. Despite tariff risks and market correction, firm maintains cautiously optimistic outlook supported by potential deregulation, tax cuts, and Fed accommodation. Portfolios positioned for rebound opportunities across sectors while maintaining defensive flexibility. |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMZN, CRM, META, TSLA | AI, Federal Reserve, interest rates, Mega Cap, real estate, REITs, tariffs | - | Chilton expects market consolidation in early 2025 after strong two-year run, but sees 6-8% upside from earnings growth despite policy uncertainty. REITs positioned for 10-15% returns on improving fundamentals. AI driving continued mega-cap leadership while international markets lag on dollar strength. Maintaining defensive bond positioning with shorter maturities. |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BX, LINE | Commercial real estate, Fed Cuts, Market Leadership, rates, REITs, value | - | The Fed's rate cutting cycle creates a favorable environment for both equities and REITs, with public real estate particularly well-positioned after years of private market dominance. Market leadership is rotating from mega-cap growth to value and defensive sectors, while REITs trade at NAV premiums enabling accretive acquisitions for the first time since 2010. |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA | AI, growth, interest rates, large cap, Mega Cap, REITs, technology | - | Chilton Capital supports mega-cap growth leadership driven by AI and superior fundamentals while acknowledging valuation risks. They expect higher rates to persist with limited Fed cuts, creating stock picker opportunities through increased dispersion. REITs are positioned for a multi-year bull market as rates stabilize, giving public REITs structural advantages over private alternatives. |
| Apr 22 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, BXP, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, SPG, TSLA | AI, earnings, interest rates, large cap, REITs, technology | - | Market gains driven by AI-fueled earnings upgrades in technology, though near-term volatility expected after historic run. Fed rate cut expectations reduced to three cuts in 2024. REITs face headwinds but positioned for distressed opportunity capture given superior capital position versus leveraged private real estate owners. |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, growth, rates, REITs, technology, value | - | Chilton sees favorable 2024 conditions with Fed pivoting to rate cuts, inflation moderating, and economy achieving soft landing. Expects S&P 500 returns of 5-7%, fixed income 3-5%, and REITs 12-16%. Market leadership should broaden beyond 2023's narrow tech winners toward value and international stocks. Key risks include geopolitical issues and potential Fed overcorrection. |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q3 | ARM, CART | Capital markets, Fed policy, inflation, rates, REITs, Treasury Yields | - | Chilton sees the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience to Fed rate hikes, creating potential for immaculate disinflation. With Treasury yields at 16-year highs, they're locking in attractive fixed income yields through laddered strategies. Despite maintaining REIT downside conviction, they identify compelling risk-adjusted returns as property values decline while leverage remains historically low and employment strong. |
| Jul 13 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AVGO, MSFT, NVDA | AI, Bull Market, earnings, Fed policy, inflation, REITs, technology | - | Markets entered a new bull market driven by AI innovation and mega-cap technology leadership. Key catalysts include falling inflation, potential Fed pause, and improving earnings outlook. AI could add 7% to global GDP per Goldman Sachs estimates. Main risk is Fed over-tightening causing recession. REITs offer opportunities from commercial real estate distress. |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CRM, MSFT, NVDA | Banking, Fed policy, inflation, interest rates, REITs, technology | - | Fed rate hikes are successfully taming inflation while the economy stays resilient, creating opportunities despite banking sector stress from SVB and Signature Bank failures. Technology companies are executing transformation plans while AI demand accelerates at Nvidia. Growth stocks and public REITs look attractive as interest rates peak and valuations become more compelling following 2022 weakness. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIran war caused oil prices to spike over 50% as roughly 20% of global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The longer it remains closed, the greater the risk to global economic growth. Rising energy prices have increased likelihood of higher inflation and potential recession. |
Energy Geopolitical Inflation Supply |
AIAI infrastructure buildout is being questioned by investors amid increasing uncertainty. However, AI spending continues to drive robust earnings growth outlook. Major themes like AI remain attractive areas for investment despite current market volatility. |
Technology Infrastructure Earnings | |
DefenseNational defense has remained a strong theme as heightened security risks and heavy munitions usage support the need for additional production. Defense/aerospace is identified as an attractive area for investment. |
Security Production Spending | |
ValueValue stocks in sectors like Energy and Materials significantly outperformed growth names. The equal weight S&P 500 outperformed the market cap weighted index. International markets benefited from heavier exposure to value stocks as rising commodity prices supported value-oriented sectors. |
Outperformance Commodities Rotation | |
Commercial Real EstateREIT sector produced +4.8% return in Q1 despite volatility. Sector is ripe for M&A due to discounts to NAV, increasing NAVs, expectations for rate cuts, low obsolescence risk, and rising replacement costs. At least $45 billion in REIT M&A expected to close in 2026. |
REITs M&A NAV Discount | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager views AI concerns as premature, citing rapid household adoption and strong earnings growth from major companies. The aggressive AI buildout is necessitated by demand, with major players healthy enough to fund infrastructure investments anticipating healthy returns. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Infrastructure Capex Technology |
Private CreditDefaults of auto-lender Tricolor and auto parts supplier First Brands created market concerns in Q4. Manager views these as isolated instances of fraud rather than systemic problems, with concerns fading as economic fundamentals remain healthy. |
Credit Defaults Auto Lending Financial Services | |
REITsREITs underperformed expectations with 3% return versus 10-15% forecast. Manager remains optimistic for 2026 with 10% base case return and 14% annualized return over 2026-2028, citing elevated earnings growth and depressed AFFO multiples. |
Real Estate AFFO Dividend Yield Property Types | |
RatesFed continued rate cutting with 0.25% reductions in October and December, bringing Federal Funds rate to 3.50-3.75%. Manager expects 2 additional cuts in 2026, with debate around policy given strong GDP but rising unemployment. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Bond Yields | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI is described as a massive 15-20 year driver of productivity and growth for the global economy. Morgan Stanley estimates S&P 500 companies could reap annual net benefits of $920 billion from full AI adoption through cost reductions and additional revenue. 90% of occupations will likely be impacted by AI through automation and augmentation. |
Productivity Automation Revenue Growth Adoption |
Trade PolicyPeak Trump trade policy uncertainty appears to be in the rear view mirror as measured by mentions in articles. The Supreme Court could strike tariffs down in Q4, while the administration seeks different approaches like specific sector tariffs. This presents a risk to steady market gains as companies have gotten comfortable with current trade deals. |
Tariffs Uncertainty Administration Sectors Risk | |
EarningsThe incredibly resilient earnings power of largest domestic companies continues to inflect higher. Current 12-month forward outlook for operating margins is at an all-time high. Companies are doing more with less, coupled with expectations for accelerating revenue growth across the market cap spectrum. |
Margins Revenue Growth Resilient Operating | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve restarted its rate cutting program in mid-September, reducing short-term rates by 0.25%. Consensus market expectations call for two additional 0.25% rate cuts during 2025 and two more in 2026. The Fed describes this as an insurance cut signaling caution rather than aggressive easing. |
Cutting Federal Reserve Insurance Easing Policy | |
Commercial Real EstateREITs produced a total return of +4.8% in Q3, bringing year-to-date returns to +4.7%. With construction continuing to slow and the market on solid footing, REITs are poised for acceleration of earnings growth in 2026-2027. Public REITs have been struggling to trade at or near their net asset values due to net outflows. |
REITs Construction NAV Outflows Earnings | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTrump's tariff rollout initially caused market volatility but subsequent de-escalation has been a major driver of recovery. American companies have quickly adapted by shifting supply chains and seeking tariff avoidance strategies. The ultimate impact remains uncertain as negotiations continue. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Negotiations Trade War China |
AISecular drivers like AI remain intact despite macro uncertainty, driving strong earnings for many tech companies. AI-related applications continue to support innovation and growth in the technology sector. |
Technology Innovation Earnings Secular Growth | |
Commercial Real EstateREITs showed resilience during tariff uncertainty with management teams maintaining or raising guidance. Higher construction costs from tariffs could benefit current property owners by dampening new supply and supporting rent growth over time. |
REITs Construction Costs Supply Rent Growth Property Types | |
RatesFed likely to resume cutting rates due to falling inflation and rising unemployment indicators. Markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year and three more in 2026. Lower rates would be stimulative for the economy by reducing borrowing costs. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Unemployment Inflation Monetary Policy | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration's aggressive rollout of tariffs has increased recession risk and created policy uncertainty. Substantial tariffs on trading partners including Canada and Mexico may slow growth and increase inflation, offsetting likely stimulative growth policies. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Inflation Growth |
Commercial Real EstatePublic REITs are well-positioned versus private alternatives with strong balance sheets and record low net debt/EBITDA. The Chilton REIT Strategy produced 3.9% returns in Q1 with 280 bps of alpha, benefiting from active management during volatile periods. |
REITs Private Balance Alpha Volatility | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% while watching policy developments. The market expects four 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, with the Fed more concerned about labor market deterioration than inflation pressures. |
Fed Cuts Labor Unemployment Monetary | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence remained the hottest topic in corporate America with AI models improving significantly. Companies including Salesforce and Meta Platforms realized immediate benefits from AI implementation. |
Technology Innovation Growth Mega Cap Software |
Commercial Real EstateREITs produced mixed results with the MSCI US REIT Index gaining 8.8% for the year but declining 6.1% in Q4 due to interest rate concerns. The firm forecasts 10-15% returns for 2025 based on cash flow, NAV, and dividend growth expectations. |
REITs Interest Rates Dividends NAV Real Estate | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates twice in Q4 bringing the Federal Funds rate to 4.25-4.50% range, but longer-term rates moved higher due to economic growth projections and inflation concerns. Bond market performance was negatively impacted by rising longer-term yields. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Bonds Inflation Treasury | |
Trade PolicyPresident-elect Trump's threat to implement tariffs on US trading partners has moved longer-term rates higher due to inflationary implications. The introduction of additional tariffs is seen as inflationary and could impact future Fed rate cutting decisions. |
Tariffs Inflation Policy Trump Trade | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Commercial Real EstateREITs are positioned for a changing of the guard as they trade at NAV premiums for the first time since 2010, enabling accretive acquisitions. Public REITs have strong balance sheets with 32% debt ratios while private funds face high debt costs from peak 2021-2022 purchases. The conditions resemble 2003-2007 with sustained NAV premiums and accretive growth potential. |
REITs NAV Premium Acquisitions Private Real Estate Cost of Capital |
RatesThe Federal Reserve began cutting rates with a 0.5% cut in September, marking the Powell Pivot from aggressive hiking. Markets expect 8 additional 0.25% cuts through 2025, potentially bringing money market yields to 2.5%. Lower rates provide economic stimulus through cheaper mortgages and corporate borrowing costs. |
Fed Cuts Powell Pivot Monetary Policy Yield Curve Economic Stimulus | |
ValueValue outperformed growth after six consecutive quarters of underperformance, with Russell 1000 Value returning 9.4% versus 3.2% for Growth in Q3. Historically, value stocks outperform in early rate-cutting cycles as investors shift toward defensive assets, though growth typically regains leadership 12 months after the first cut. |
Value vs Growth Russell 1000 Rate Cutting Cycle Defensive Assets Market Leadership | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIMega-cap growth companies have greater capacity to benefit from major secular trends such as artificial intelligence. Companies like NVIDIA, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft continue to outperform due to rising earnings estimates driven by AI developments. |
Technology Growth Semiconductors Cloud Data Centers |
Commercial Real EstateREITs are positioned for a multi-year bull market driven by better-than-expected economic growth, muted new construction, competitive advantages, and stabilization of interest rates. Public REITs have structural advantages over private real estate in higher rate environments due to lower blended capital costs. |
REITs Interest Rates Real Estate Yields Capital Costs | |
RatesThe bond market is pricing in just one or two rate cuts through year-end, well below earlier expectations. Short-term interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, with Fed Funds expected to settle around 3.5% over the next three years. |
Federal Reserve Bonds Monetary Policy Inflation Fixed Income | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIArtificial intelligence is identified as a major secular growth and productivity driver that has boosted expected gains for a broad range of sectors. The AI theme has contributed to persistent upgrades of expected forward earnings growth, particularly in the technology sector. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Growth Secular |
Commercial Real EstateREITs are positioned to take advantage of distress in late 2024 and 2025 as private real estate owners face challenges with floating rate debt and reduced cash flows. Public REITs have superior access to capital and low leverage, giving them advantages to attract tenants and acquire distressed properties. |
REITs Distress Leverage Capital Occupancy | |
RatesInterest rate expectations have shifted with the Fed now expected to cut rates three times in 2024, down from five or six cuts expected previously. The bond market is pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of 4% by year end 2025, which may not be enough to help heavy borrowers with near term maturities. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Bond Market Treasury Monetary Policy | |
EarningsEarnings drive the market over time, and recent earnings revisions have been so positive that the S&P 500 has already surpassed many strategist targets for 2024. Information Technology is predicted to have the fastest earnings growth at 18.2%, with Communication Services second at 17.4%. |
Earnings Growth Revisions Technology Communication Services Forward Estimates | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence emerged as a tangible and material business driver for many companies in 2023, particularly mega-cap growth stocks. AI contributed to dramatic gains and renewed confidence in technology companies as a key catalyst for future growth. |
Technology Growth Innovation Automation Software |
RatesFederal Reserve pivoted from tightening to potentially cutting rates in 2024 as inflation growth slows dramatically. Rate volatility was extreme during the quarter, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from 4.59% to 3.88%, driving significant bond market gains. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Treasury Bonds Inflation | |
Commercial Real EstatePublic REITs significantly outperformed in Q4 2023, with the MSCI US REIT Index producing 13.7% total return for the year. REITs are positioned to benefit from their cost and availability of capital advantage versus private real estate, enabling accretive acquisitions from distressed owners. |
REITs Property Yields Capital Acquisitions | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve continued aggressive rate hikes during the quarter, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.81% to 4.61%, its highest level in over 16 years. The firm believes the Fed is likely at or near the end of this rate hiking cycle and that rates are unlikely to move much higher than current levels. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Treasury Yields Monetary Policy Rate Hikes |
InflationInflation growth continued to slow during the quarter, with economists beginning to use the term immaculate disinflation to describe the potential for the Fed to meet its 2% target without causing major damage to growth or employment. The current situation has surprised the Fed and most economists with continued economic growth and strong employment. |
Disinflation Fed Target Economic Growth Employment Price Stability | |
Commercial Real EstateThe firm maintains strong conviction in downside risk to REIT prices but believes it will take stability in the 10-year Treasury yield before investors look more closely at strong risk-adjusted returns. Real estate values are down 16.5% from April 2022 highs, though REIT leverage is about half of 2008 levels and unemployment remains near 50-year lows. |
REITs Property Values Leverage Dividend Growth Real Estate Investment | |
Capital MarketsAs inflation growth slows and the economy shows resilience to higher interest rates, capital markets activity is beginning to improve. Major players Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have seen uptick in M&A and public offering interest, with companies like Arm Holdings and Instacart going public during the quarter. |
IPOs M&A Activity Public Offerings Investment Banking Market Recovery | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIArtificial Intelligence continued to garner significant investor attention, with ChatGPT becoming the fastest growing consumer application ever. NVIDIA CEO called this the iPhone moment for AI, with enterprises rushing to adopt AI applications. Goldman Sachs estimates AI could add 7% to global GDP and 4% to S&P 500 net margins over the next decade. |
ChatGPT Enterprise GDP Margins Innovation |
Commercial Real EstateThe commercial real estate market faces significant challenges reminiscent of the early 1990s, with tightening capital windows and floating-rate debt pressures. However, public REITs hold advantages with stronger balance sheets and ability to make accretive acquisitions from undercapitalized properties. |
REITs Distress Acquisitions Balance Sheets Valuations | |
| 2023 Q1 |
InflationFederal Reserve rate hikes are successfully slowing inflation growth from peak levels. Producer price index fell to 4.6% in February from double-digit levels last year, suggesting continued consumer inflation slowdown ahead. |
Inflation Fed Rates CPI PPI |
Credit StressSilicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures represent second and third largest bank failures in US history. Banking crisis caused by poor balance sheet management and exposure to tech/crypto sectors, leading to government intervention through Bank Term Funding Program. |
Banking Credit SVB BTFP Deposits | |
AINvidia seeing acceleration of demand for products in artificial intelligence areas, which could be a meaningful secular business driver as the semiconductor giant emerges from deteriorating results. |
AI Nvidia Semiconductors Demand Secular | |
Commercial Real EstatePrivate real estate market remains at peak valuations while public REITs have declined, creating significant pricing discrepancy. Private real estate faces challenges from high leverage and floating rate debt as Fed raises rates, while public REITs entered 2022 with record low debt levels. |
REITs Private Real Estate Leverage Debt Valuation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bradley J. Eixmann | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenter, GPUs, growth, Hardware, leadership, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bradley J. Eixmann | INTC | Intel Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | CapEx, Chips, manufacturing, recovery, semiconductors, turnaround | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| PSA | The big news in REITland in March was the announcement of an all-stock merger between Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) and National Storage Affiliates (NYSE: NSA) where PSA is acquiring NSA for a $10.7 billion enterprise value. |
| NSA | The big news in REITland in March was the announcement of an all-stock merger between Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) and National Storage Affiliates (NYSE: NSA) where PSA is acquiring NSA for a $10.7 billion enterprise value. |
| VRE | This came soon after the announcement of an all-cash acquisition of Veris Residential (NYSE: VRE) for $3.4 billion. |
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