Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | - | 20.2% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.2% | 34.4% | -6.1% | -10.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | - | 20.2% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.2% | 34.4% | -6.1% | -10.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% |
Desert Lion Capital Fund returned 6.0% net in December 2025, bringing full-year returns to 20.2% net, building on the 34.4% return delivered in 2024. The JSE All Share Index posted a remarkable 57.0% return for 2025, driven almost exclusively by large-cap precious metals miners that rallied 295% during the year. The fund maintains a concentrated, benchmark-agnostic approach investing in underappreciated small and mid-cap South African companies with superior fundamentals and dislocated prices. The fiscal, economic, and inflation outlook has improved meaningfully, with liquidity flowing back into South African capital markets and local bond yields declining from 10.3% to 8.2%. Most portfolio companies continue to grow intrinsic value at better-than-expected rates while valuations remain depressed. The manager believes the fund is in the early innings of a cycle where South African equities outperform relative to U.S. markets, with historical cycles lasting eight to thirteen years. Given low starting valuations, above-average fundamentals, declining discount rates, and increasing liquidity flowing into lesser-known market areas, the necessary ingredients are firmly in place for superior long-term returns driven by earnings growth and valuation normalization.
Desert Lion Capital invests in a concentrated portfolio of underappreciated South African small and mid-cap companies with superior fundamentals and dislocated prices, positioned to benefit from an early-stage cycle of relative outperformance as valuations normalize and liquidity returns to the market.
The manager believes they are still in the early innings of a cycle where South African equities outperform relative to U.S. equity markets, with previous cycles lasting approximately eight to thirteen years. Given low starting valuations, above-average fundamentals, declining discount rates, and increasing liquidity flowing into lesser-known areas of the market, the necessary ingredients are firmly in place for superior returns.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ALSH, J203 | emerging markets, liquidity, re-rating, valuation, value | - | Desert Lion Capital delivered 20.2% net returns in 2025, investing in concentrated, undervalued South African small and mid-cap companies. With improved fiscal outlook, declining bond yields, and returning liquidity, the manager believes they are in early innings of a multi-year cycle of South African equity outperformance versus U.S. markets. |
| Dec 5 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ACS.JO, ARA.JO, ART.JO, HCI.JO, IOC.JO, KRO.JO, LEW.JO, SDO.JO, SOL.JO | Buybacks, dividends, Industrial, JSE, real estate, small caps, South Africa, value |
ACS SJ ART SJ ARA SJ LEW SJ |
Desert Lion's South African small-cap portfolio delivered 3.7% in November as fundamentally strong companies trade at deeply dislocated valuations. Portfolio holdings like Acsion, Argent, and Lewis demonstrate exceptional value metrics while actively returning capital through buybacks and dividends. Early signs suggest renewed interest in this overlooked segment as bond inflows reduce discount rates. |
| Jul 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ART.JO, CPI.JO, HCI.JO, IOC.JO, KRO.JO, SDO.JO | Buybacks, dividends, earnings, Industrial, South Africa, value |
ART SJ ART.JO |
Desert Lion focuses on undervalued South African equities trading at deep discounts despite strong fundamentals. Argent Industrial exemplifies this approach, trading at 4× P/E while compounding EPS at 30% annually through excellent capital allocation. With improving macro backdrop including declining bond yields and potential emerging market flows, current valuations offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ART.JO, CWL.JO, HCI.JO, KRO.JO, SDO.JO, SOL.JO | Concentration, Education, small caps, South Africa, value | SDO.JO | Desert Lion's concentrated South African equity strategy underperformed in Q1 while recycling capital into new high-conviction positions. Core holdings like education company Stadio demonstrate structural growth opportunities in neglected markets. The manager welcomes volatility as deployment opportunity, emphasizing strong portfolio fundamentals and significant valuation discounts versus expensive U.S. markets. |
| Feb 1 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ARI.JO, CLC.JO, KRO.JO, LEW.JO, SDO.JO, SOL.JO | Cyclical, emerging markets, infrastructure, Privatization, South Africa, value | - | Desert Lion delivered 34% returns in 2024 as South African equities inflected from underperformance to outperformance. Manager sees early stages of cyclical uptrend driven by improving fundamentals, infrastructure privatization ending blackouts, and scope for rate cuts. Despite re-rating, stocks remain compellingly valued with meaningful capital flows yet to arrive. |
| Oct 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CGR.JO | Development, Housing, Property, South Africa, value | CGR.JO | Desert Lion delivered 36.6% YTD returns by finding deep value in inefficient South African equities. Their concentrated portfolio includes Calgro, an affordable housing developer up 100%+ but still trading at 3x PE despite 29% EPS growth. Manager sees South Africa's improving fundamentals and cheap valuations as early-stage opportunity others cannot access. |
| Jul 8 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | concentrated, Politics, Reform, South Africa, value | - | Desert Lion outperformed significantly as South Africa's Government of National Unity signals political shift toward market-friendly policies. New Cabinet appointments show meaningful improvement across key portfolios. Private sector optimism is building while global markets still discount failed state scenarios, creating attractive opportunities for patient capital in a resilient economy poised for recovery. |
| May 13 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ARA.JO, HCI.JO, KRO.JO | Mining, oil, South Africa, Tourism, value |
HCI.JO KRO.JO ARA.JO |
Desert Lion Capital targets mispriced South African equities through concentrated value investing, leveraging local expertise to navigate political risk concerns. The fund's top holdings include HCI with transformative Orange Basin oil exposure, technology compounder Karooooo, and Astoria trading at 50% NAV discount. Manager sees significant price dislocations creating compelling long-term opportunities for patient capital. |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 27 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ART SJ | - | - | |
| Apr 19 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | ART SJ, NPN SJ | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| 2025 Q3 |
BuybacksShare repurchases in 2024 and 2025 hit consecutive records as companies raced to meet Tokyo Stock Exchange capital efficiency mandates. Buybacks were a primary driver of the market's 20% climb in the first half of FY2025. |
Share Repurchases Capital Efficiency TSE Mandates Shareholder Returns Records |
DividendsJapanese companies paid record dividends of ¥18 trillion for fiscal year ending March 2025, a 13.8% year-over-year increase. Many major firms have adopted progressive dividend policies guaranteeing dividends will never be cut, only maintained or increased. |
Progressive Dividend Record Payouts Shareholder Returns Yield Growth | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q2 |
BuybacksShare repurchases in 2024 and 2025 hit consecutive records as companies raced to meet Tokyo Stock Exchange capital efficiency mandates. Buybacks were a primary driver of the market's 20% climb in the first half of FY2025. |
Share Repurchases Capital Efficiency TSE Mandates Shareholder Returns Records |
DividendsJapanese companies paid record dividends of ¥18 trillion for fiscal year ending March 2025, a 13.8% year-over-year increase. Many major firms have adopted progressive dividend policies guaranteeing dividends will never be cut, only maintained or increased. |
Progressive Dividend Record Payouts Shareholder Returns Yield Growth | |
EarningsEarnings are central to the manager's optimism with consensus expectations pointing to meaningful acceleration in small-cap earnings in 2026, with growth projected in the low-to-mid teens and exceeding that of large-cap companies. This anticipated rebound reflects easier year-over-year comparisons, improving operating leverage, and broadening demand across cyclical and value-oriented sectors. |
Earnings Growth Operating Leverage Cyclical Sectors Consensus Estimates Earnings Revisions | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Education |
|
| 2024 Q4 |
Infrastructure SpendingPlaying on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, positions in Industrial and Energy sectors including Oshkosh, Coterra, OSI Systems, and Herc Holdings added positively to performance. |
Defense Energy Industrial Government Sustainability |
South AfricaThe fiscal, economic, and inflation outlook has improved meaningfully. History and fundamentals suggest that certain areas within the mid- and small-cap segments of the JSE are positioned to respond and catch up in a powerful way. Previous cycles of relative underperformance and outperformance have lasted approximately eight to thirteen years. |
JSE Emerging Markets Equities Undervalued Cycle | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Affordable Housing |
|
| 2024 Q2 |
South AfricaThe fiscal, economic, and inflation outlook has improved meaningfully. History and fundamentals suggest that certain areas within the mid- and small-cap segments of the JSE are positioned to respond and catch up in a powerful way. Previous cycles of relative underperformance and outperformance have lasted approximately eight to thirteen years. |
JSE Emerging Markets Equities Undervalued Cycle |
| 2024 Q1 |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply |
Tourism |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rudi van Niekerk | ACS SJ | Acsion Limited | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, development, Insiders, Real Estate, valuation | Login |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rudi van Niekerk | ART SJ | Argent Industrial Limited | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, capital allocation, cash, conglomerate, Industrials | Login |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rudi van Niekerk | ARA SJ | Astoria Investments Limited | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buyback, Delisting, discount, Event-driven, holding company | Login |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rudi van Niekerk | LEW SJ | Lewis Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Credit, dividends, Margins, retail, valuation | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rudi van Niekerk | ART SJ | Argent Industrial Limited | Materials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | buybacks, capital allocation, cashflow, Diversification :Contentreference[Oaicite:0]{Index=0}, Industrial, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | ART.JO | Argent Industrial | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | capital allocation, cash generation, Developed Markets, dividend, industrial conglomerate, mispricing, ROE, Security Barriers, Share Buybacks, South Africa, specialty equipment, Steel fabrication, UK, US, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | SDO.JO | Stadio Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Education Services | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | asset-light, Education Services, Emerging markets, For-Profit Education, growth, Higher Education, operating leverage, Private education, ROE Expansion, South Africa | Login |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | CGR.JO | Calgro M3 Holdings Limited | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | affordable housing, Equity, Housing shortage, Management Change, margin expansion, real estate development, Share Buybacks, South Africa, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | HCI.JO | Hosken Consolidated Investments | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | JSE | Coal Mining, Gaming, Hydrocarbon, Investment Holding Company, media, Oil exploration, Orange Basin, Properties, South Africa, Total Consortium, Tourism, Transport, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | KRO.JO | Karooooo | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | JSE | AI, Fleet Management, growth, Long-term compounder, SaaS, Software, South Africa, technology, Vehicle Tracking | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Desert Lion Capital | ARA.JO | Astoria | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | JSE | discount to NAV, growth, Hunting, Investment Holding Company, NAV Compounding, Outdoor, retail, South Africa, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||