Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5% | 3.0% | 19.9% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 19.9% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5% | 3.0% | 19.9% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 19.9% |
Diranko Capital delivered 19.9% net returns in 2025, outperforming broader markets through focused small-cap investing. The manager made two acknowledged mistakes: holding EROAD too long after a 3x gain, resulting in a 30% decline from peak, and mistiming cyclical exposure in Mattr Corp. Despite these setbacks contributing -9% combined, the portfolio generated strong overall returns. Going into 2026, the portfolio is positioned across three opportunity sets: 25% in deep value investments trading below 5x earnings or half replacement cost, 22% in special situations including liquidations and thrift conversions, and 50% in microcaps with 20%+ growth potential. The manager believes these opportunities persist due to limited institutional coverage of small businesses averaging €150 million market cap. Key risks include elevated market valuations and potential mean reversion after strong performance. The strategy benefits from structural advantages as retail investors and quantitative funds eventually discover undervalued positions, triggering reratings beyond fundamental business performance.
Focus on small businesses with average market cap of €150 million across three opportunity sets: deep value investments trading below 5x earnings or half of replacement cost, special situations driven by corporate actions, and microcaps with underappreciated 20%+ annual profit growth potential.
Manager expects the three opportunity sets to persist across market cycles due to limited institutional coverage of small businesses and structural advantages. Portfolio has been adjusted and is well positioned to continue generating satisfactory returns going into 2026.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CSU.TO, ERD.NZ, MAT.NZ | Cyclical, deep value, growth, Microcaps, small caps, special situations, Telematics, value | ERD NZ | Manager focuses on deep value investments trading below five times sustainable earnings or less than half of replacement cost. These capital-intensive businesses with uncertain growth… |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, bigtech, Capex, productivity, Valuations | - | The letter evaluates the sustainability of trillion-dollar AI capex cycles and concludes that adoption, monetization, and returns on invested capital are unlikely to meet market… |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 9 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Small CapsThe fund invests in a portfolio of competitively advantaged small and medium-sized businesses, which remained out of favor for most of the quarter. The strategy of owning leading small-cap businesses has been the foundation since inception, delivering 354 basis points of annual outperformance over the benchmark since inception despite recent headwinds. |
Growth Outperformance Benchmark Russell Businesses |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | David Diranko | ERD NZ | EROAD Ltd | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | capital allocation, Regulatory Exposure, Telematics, turnaround, Valuation Discipline | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CSU.TO | Broad pressure on the stocks of software companies enabled us to initiate a position in Constellation Software. This is a unique business we had on our radar for a long time but were never able to purchase due to its high valuation. At its core, the company is a permanent capital vehicle designed to acquire 'vertical market software' (VMS) businesses and hold them indefinitely. |
| ERD.NZ | EROAD is a New Zealand–based telematics software company with over 90% market share in road user charging within its home market and has been a portfolio position since inception. We bought the stock at NZD 0.92 per share at a market capitalization of NZD 170M and an enterprise value of NZD 198.4M, implying a valuation of only 1.1x EV/sales. In early October, EROAD surprised the market by announcing the loss of an important U.S. customer, which initiated a strategic review. The stock fell 30% that day and continued to slide thereafter. We subsequently sold the position around NZD 1.60 per share after confirming that the company did not intend to exit the U.S. market and would continue subsidizing it through its New Zealand business. Overall, we made an 80% return in less than a year on the position, which is a good outcome. |
| MAT.NZ | In my second mistake, I caught an industrial business at the wrong point in the cycle. While I was aware of the cyclicality of the business, I succumbed to the fallacy that it was good enough to escape industry cyclicality, which proved to be a mistake. While I still believe the business may generate good returns going forward from a lower valuation, I am unable to assess when the cycle may turn. Our investment in Mattr contributed -5% to this year's performance. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||