| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The third quarter saw broad asset class gains driven by AI enthusiasm and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose over 8% supported by strong corporate earnings, particularly in technology where firms invested record amounts in cloud and AI infrastructure. Nvidia projects $3-4 trillion in additional infrastructure spending by 2030. Gold surged over 40% year-to-date to over $4,000 per ounce, benefiting from geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, and serving as an inflation hedge. The Fed pivoted in September, prioritizing employment over inflation concerns and cutting rates to 4% with two additional cuts signaled by year-end, despite inflation remaining at 3.1% above the 2% target. This raises stagflation concerns not seen since the 1970s. With global indices at record levels, investors face limited capacity to absorb negative developments like government shutdowns or trade policy uncertainties. Going forward, diversification and conservative fixed income positioning are recommended to protect against market risks including potential technology sector slowdowns.
Markets benefited from AI enthusiasm and prospects of Fed rate cuts, but elevated valuations and emerging stagflation risks warrant defensive positioning through diversification and conservative fixed income allocation.
Investment diversification should continue to play a key role offering protection from market risks. Conservative fixed income can provide income and stability. With global indices at record levels, investors have limited capacity to absorb negative developments.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NVDA | AI, Fed policy, gold, inflation, rates, Stagflation, technology | - | Markets rallied on AI enthusiasm and Fed rate cut expectations, with the S&P 500 gaining 8% and gold surging 40% year-to-date. However, the Fed's pivot to prioritizing employment over inflation raises stagflation risks. With indices at record levels and limited downside capacity, diversification and conservative fixed income positioning are warranted to protect against emerging market risks. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, energy, Federal Reserve, geopolitics, inflation, technology, Trade Policy | - | Q2 2025 saw markets reach new highs despite tariff threats and geopolitical tensions. Technology companies drove performance through AI and cloud expansion while the Fed eyes 2% inflation target achievement. Fiscal concerns mount with $37 trillion debt, but tariff revenues provide some offset. Upcoming earnings face modest 5% growth expectations amid macroeconomic uncertainty. |
| Apr 23 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT | Dollar, gold, inflation, Recession, technology, Trade Policy | - | Q1 2025 market volatility exposed technology bubble risks while diversification provided protection. Dollar weakness from tariff threats drove gold above $3000. Persistent 3% inflation limits Fed rate cut flexibility. Markets shifted from post-election optimism to recession fears with stocks nearing bear territory. Economic softening evident despite solid Q4 GDP growth. |
| Jan 22 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, Banking, Bull Market, equities, Fed policy, Manufacturing, Trade Policy | - | Following a banner 2024 with the S&P 500 hitting fifty-seven new highs, equity investors remain optimistic about the established bull market continuing. AI-driven earnings growth, successful Fed soft landing, and hopes for business-friendly policies from the new administration support continued expansion, though tariff threats and persistent manufacturing weakness present notable headwinds. |
| Oct 23 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | earnings, energy, inflation, rates, Risk Appetite, United States | - | Third quarter gains pushed stocks near 20% year-to-date as Fed rate cuts and economic resilience drive optimism. GDP exceeds 3% growth with unemployment at 4.1% while inflation moderates to 2.2%. Corporate earnings momentum continues with five straight quarters of growth expected. Geopolitical risks and consumer debt stress remain concerns, though evolved energy markets provide some stability. |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Elections, Employment, Europe, geopolitics, inflation, Tourism | - | U.S. economy shows resilience with Fed successfully managing soft landing and inflation falling to 2.6%. European tourism recovery provides tailwinds. Key risks include persistent geopolitical conflicts and dangerous market concentration with five stocks driving 55% of S&P 500 gains. Political elections across major economies add uncertainty to outlook. |
| Apr 25 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | AI, Federal Reserve, inflation, large cap, technology, US Economy | - | U.S. markets and economy show remarkable resilience with the S&P 500 hitting new highs and strong job growth despite recession fears. AI investment drives technology sector strength while inflation expectations moderate around 2.5%. Key risks include commodity price volatility and Federal Reserve challenges in reaching 2% inflation targets without triggering recession through tighter policy. |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | AI, Europe, inflation, Japan, rates, real estate, technology | - | Strong Q4 2023 returns driven by AI excitement mask brewing economic challenges. Commercial real estate faces $550 billion debt maturity wall while housing markets freeze under 7% mortgage rates. Rolling recessions and global growth concerns threaten 2024 outlook, but long-term investors should stay focused given historical election-year market resilience. |
| Oct 24 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT | China, consumer, credit, rates, real estate, technology | - | Markets declined 3% in Q3 as macro pressures mounted. Seven tech stocks drive 84% of market gains, creating unhealthy concentration. China's economy struggles while U.S. faces $32 trillion debt burden. Consumer spending threatened by $1 trillion credit card debt and resuming student loans. Fed's higher-for-longer rate stance poses additional risks to real estate and corporate investment. |
| Jul 26 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | AI, earnings, inflation, rates, Recession, technology | - | Markets rallied in Q2 driven by AI excitement and economic resilience, but narrow breadth with ten stocks driving 95% of gains raises concerns. Technology led with NASDAQ up 32%, while expensive valuations at 20x earnings and forecasted profit declines create headwinds. Upcoming earnings season will test market strength amid continued Fed tightening. |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, China, inflation, monetary policy, rates, Recession | - | Q1 2023 saw markets gain 7.5% despite banking stress and aggressive Fed tightening from 0% to 5% rates. While recession risks are rising with weakening economic data, inflation is moderating toward 3% and markets expect policy easing by June. International markets outperformed on China reopening and European stability, creating opportunities for long-term investors. |
| Jan 20 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 12 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 13 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
AITechnology stocks continued to perform well with major computing firms investing record amounts in cloud and AI capabilities. Nvidia expects an additional $3 to $4 trillion of infrastructure spending by 2030. AI enthusiasm drove market performance across asset classes. |
Cloud Infrastructure Spending Technology |
GoldGold rose over 40% year-to-date to over $4,000 per troy ounce, serving as an effective hedge against inflation and safe-haven asset during economic stress. Demand driven by frozen Russian assets, rising government debt, uncertain trade policies, and geopolitical risks. |
Inflation Geopolitical Safe Haven | |
RatesFederal Reserve pivoted in September making softening job market their primary concern over inflation. Chair Powell lowered rates to 4% while signaling two additional cuts by year-end, despite inflation still above the 2% target at 3.1%. |
Federal Reserve Inflation Employment | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTariff announcements in April led to sharp global stock selloffs, with the U.S. administration pausing threatened tariffs and extending major trading partners a ninety-day respite. Economists warned that planned trading levies could slow economic growth, increase inflation, and undermine investor confidence. Net government tariff revenue eclipsed $60 billion during the first five months of the year. |
Tariffs Trade War Economic Growth Inflation Revenue |
AIThe largest global technology companies continued to lead the way as they plan for further hiring in their Artificial Intelligence businesses, double digit sales growth in their cloud segments, and success developing their Large Language Model initiatives. Technology companies showed resilience and delivered solid business results with optimistic growth targets. |
Artificial Intelligence Cloud LLM Technology Growth | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates will play an important role in a shifting economic landscape. Fed Chairman Jay Powell will be primarily focused on his inflation target of 2%, a goal that may be achieved soon. Central banks and investors are eager to digest fresh data for clarity amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Inflation Target Monetary Policy Powell | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIMarket sentiment towards technology stocks and the Artificial Intelligence investment theme soured, as some analysts suggested a potential bubble was forming around former market darlings including Microsoft, Apple, and Google. |
Technology Bubble Microsoft Apple Google |
InflationPrice levels remain a cause for concern in the U.S. economy, as both the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes continue to rise at high rates (3.5% and 3%, respectively, in the recent January report). The Federal Reserve may not provide interest rate cuts due to existing concerns around inflation. |
Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index Federal Reserve Interest Rates | |
Trade PolicyMuch of the dollar's decline can be attributed to President Trump's tariff threats. As the trade levies were activated on April 2nd, investor sentiment turned negative as concerns about a recession, higher inflation, and full-fledged trade wars increased. |
Tariffs Trade Wars Dollar Weakness Recession | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIArtificial Intelligence contributed to optimism and strong corporate earnings that drove market performance in 2024. AI was cited as one of the key factors behind impressive corporate earnings reports and the S&P 500's achievement of fifty-seven new all-time highs. |
Artificial Intelligence Corporate Earnings Technology Innovation Productivity |
Trade PolicyTrump's threat of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10-20% on all other countries represents either the highest tariff levels in over one hundred years or negotiating tactics. These trade developments will influence global economic health and be particularly relevant to multinational corporations in major indices. |
Tariffs China Trade Agreements Multinational Corporations Global Economy | |
Capital MarketsBanking sector executives are laying groundwork for Initial Public Offerings and corporate mergers after years of dormant capital markets. There is renewed optimism in the banking sector for increased deal activity and capital markets revival. |
IPOs Mergers Banking Deal Activity Capital Markets Revival | |
| 2024 Q3 |
InflationFederal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has been winning the battle against rising prices. The August reading for the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) registered at 2.2%, providing evidence that the Fed is accomplishing their mandate to achieve price stability within the economy. |
PCE Price Stability Fed Policy Economic Mandate |
EnergyMilitary conflicts are testing global oil markets which have historically been prone to price spikes. However, the world oil market has evolved with OPEC building surplus capacity and the United States' LNG export capacity on track to double between 2024 and 2028. |
Oil Markets OPEC LNG Energy Supply Geopolitical Risk | |
| 2024 Q2 |
TravelEuropean tourism is showing notable strength with the UN forecasting 2024 to be the strongest year for tourists since 2019. Tourism accounts for about 10% of Europe's overall economy, which bodes well for consumer-facing European companies. |
Tourism Europe Recovery |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIAccording to Boston Consulting Group research, 85% of corporate executives are planning more spending around Artificial Intelligence and Generative AI in 2024. This makes it an exciting time to be an investor in technology companies as corporations prepare quarterly reports and investors assess whether these AI investments are translating into profitable business results. |
Technology Corporate Spending Innovation Generative AI |
ResilienceThe U.S. economy has continued to prove resilient during a time when many economists had considered a broad recession imminent. The economy appears better balanced post-pandemic with shipping bottlenecks mostly resolved and labor force participation trending higher. The Federal Reserve has successfully delivered on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. |
Economic Recovery Labor Market Federal Reserve Post-Pandemic | |
InflationExpectations for price increases in 2024 and 2025 have settled at a tolerable level of around 2.5%. However, the Federal Reserve's effort to reach their targeted inflation rate of 2% has been a daunting challenge. Higher oil prices can permeate supply chains quickly and have inflationary consequences, keeping policy makers on edge. |
Price Stability Monetary Policy Oil Prices Supply Chains | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIArtificial Intelligence excitement has driven the largest technology stocks to ever-higher valuations. The potential for AI stretches far and wide, benefiting companies across all industries as deployment spurs productivity gains throughout the broader economy. |
Technology Productivity Valuations |
Commercial Real EstateCommercial real estate faces significant challenges with $550 billion of property debt maturing in 2024, causing banks and investors to brace for losses. This represents a major economic headwind for the sector. |
Property Debt Banks Losses | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has implemented eleven rate increases over nineteen months, with bond prices under pressure from rising rates. The Fed threatens to keep rates higher for longer to reach their 2% inflation target, which could constrain mortgage-sensitive real estate and corporate borrowing plans. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Inflation Real Estate |
Credit StressU.S. credit card balances have surpassed $1 trillion, while student loan repayments resume in October. These factors pose risks to consumer spending, which comprises two-thirds of economic activity. |
Credit Cards Student Loans Consumer Spending Household Debt | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIArtificial intelligence developments are driving record strength in computer chip and cloud technology stocks. AI represents the latest example of companies innovating and creating new business opportunities. These technologies are being deployed into other industries like healthcare and global trade logistics. |
Cloud Semiconductors Innovation Healthcare Logistics |
| 2023 Q1 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve lifted rates from 0% to 5% in twelve months at a record pace. Higher interest rates are increasing recession odds and causing Americans to increase monthly borrowing by the largest amount in 50 years. The market is pricing in an end to tight monetary policy by June. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Recession Borrowing |
InflationThe Fed appears to be winning its inflation fight through aggressive monetary policy tightening. Core inflation is heading towards a more comfortable 3% by the end of the year, providing some relief from the restrictive monetary environment. |
Core Inflation Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Price Stability |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NVDA | Just a couple of weeks ago, Nvidia shared with analysts that they are expecting an additional $3 to $4 trillion dollars of infrastructure spending to occur by 2030. |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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