| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
Eagle Capital argues that fundamental changes in market structure have created better opportunities for active managers. With passive investing taking larger market share and remaining active participants increasingly momentum-focused, markets have become less efficient and more reactive. This creates opportunities to find undervalued assets in controversial areas and benefit as earnings growth materializes. The firm has positioned in companies across healthcare, software, e-commerce, and energy that trade at discounts despite expected strong earnings growth. In managed care, they see multi-year margin improvement as Medicare Advantage recovers. Mercado Libre offers exposure to Latin American e-commerce growth with low penetration rates. Software companies like SAP and Workday are positioned to benefit from AI while trading at depressed valuations. Natural gas producer EQT could benefit from electricity demand growth and LNG exports. Eagle's approach focuses on building portfolios for multiple scenarios rather than betting on specific outcomes, allowing small advantages to compound over time like in tennis where top players win most matches despite winning barely half their points.
Eagle Capital believes market structure changes have created less efficient markets with fewer active participants and more momentum-driven trading, creating opportunities to add value by mining controversial areas for quality assets and harvesting results as earnings growth unfolds over time.
Eagle expects the changing market structure with less diversity and more momentum to continue offering good opportunities for the foreseeable future. The firm plans to keep doing deep research company by company, letting compounding take care of itself in an environment where sharper moves create sharper opportunities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 2026 Q1 | DHR, EQT, HUM, INTU, LSEG.L, MELI, SAP, SPGI, UNH, WDAY | AI, Concentration, healthcare, market structure, Natural Gas, software, value | - | Eagle Capital sees market structure changes creating opportunities as passive flows and momentum trading make markets less efficient. The firm has positioned in quality companies across healthcare, software, and energy trading at discounts to expected earnings growth. Key holdings include managed care recovering from Medicare pressure, Latin American e-commerce leader Mercado Libre, and defensive software businesses navigating AI disruption. |
| Feb 13 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ASML, BAYRY, LSEGY, SAP, SHEL, TSM, TSMC | Agriculture, energy, international, semiconductors, software, technology, value |
ASML NA BAYN GR LSEG LN SAP GR SHEL LN TSM |
Eagle Capital delivered strong 2025 performance by increasing international exposure to undervalued multinational leaders like ASML, TSMC, SAP, Shell, and Bayer. With elevated U.S. valuations creating future return headwinds, the firm's flexibility to find global bargains provides competitive advantage. International investments outperformed while improving portfolio diversification and risk-adjusted returns. |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASTS, FTAI, MGNI, NBIS, NTDOY | aerospace, AI, Compounding, gaming, infrastructure, Satellites, small caps, technology |
LSEG LN LSEG LN |
Crossroads delivered 34.1% YTD returns through concentrated positions in gaming, AI infrastructure, satellite broadband, and aerospace. Nintendo's Switch 2 achieved record sales, AST SpaceMobile advanced toward commercialization, Nebius secured massive Microsoft AI contract, and FTAI transformed its aviation platform. Portfolio designed to exploit volatility through antifragile structure targeting mispriced emerging technology leaders. |
| Aug 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ASTS, ET, FTAI, GOOGL, META, MGNI, MRO, NBIS, NTDOY | gaming, Satellites, small cap, Space, tariffs, technology, value |
NTDOY ASTS |
Crossroads delivered 36.9% net returns in Q2 2025 despite small-cap value headwinds, driven by Nintendo's record Switch 2 launch and AST SpaceMobile's satellite broadband progress. The fund's concentrated approach to event-driven value investing in structural transformation stories continues generating superior risk-adjusted returns through disciplined analysis and patient capital allocation in overlooked opportunities. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AA, AER, AMZN, AON, BAYRY, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, EL, ELV, GE, GEV, GOOGL, HLT, HUM, INTU, LBRDK, LEN | AI, diversification, Geopolitical, long-term, Recession, tariffs, uncertainty, value | - | Eagle outperformed during Q1 2025's tariff-driven market crash, expecting moderate recession but maintaining long-term optimism. Portfolio positioned defensively with minimal direct tariff exposure. Tariffs may prove less inflationary than feared as consumer economizing creates deflationary pressures elsewhere. Share buyback opportunities and eventual policy support provide upside catalysts for well-positioned holdings. |
| Feb 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AER, AMZN, AON, CMCSA, COP, GOOGL, HUM, LNSTY, MSFT, SHEL, UNH, WDAY, WWD | earnings, energy, healthcare, long-term, technology, value |
AMZN COP UNH HUM |
Eagle Capital expects challenging market returns ahead due to elevated S&P 500 valuations offering only 4.4% earnings yield versus 4.6% treasuries. The firm maintains its value discipline focused on long-term earnings power, holding concentrated positions from high-yield energy names like ConocoPhillips to growth compounders like Amazon, while adding to distressed managed care plays like Humana. |
| Nov 19 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, AON, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, ELV, GEV, GOOGL, GS, HLT, HUM, META, MSFT, NFLX, OXY, SAP, TSM, WWD | aerospace, Aftermarket, growth, Quality, value | WWD | Eagle Capital highlights Woodward as exemplifying their strategy of finding well-managed businesses with leading positions and promising growth. The aerospace supplier has tripled content share on new narrowbody aircraft, creating unique aftermarket growth as fleet transitions. Strong margins expansion under new CEO, trading at discount despite high-teens EPS growth potential over next decade. |
| Aug 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AA, AAPL, AER, AMZN, AON, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, DFS, ELV, GE, GEV, GOOGL, GS, HLT, HUM, LLY, META, MSFT, NVDA | Concentration, large cap, Passive, S&P 500, technology, valuation | - | Eagle Capital warns that S&P 500 concentration and valuation risks suggest below-average returns ahead despite the index's historical success. With 35% of capital in 10 companies and technology multiples extended, the firm is recycling capital from expensive holdings into discounted opportunities, maintaining conviction in select mega-cap technology names while avoiding overvalued Apple and Nvidia. |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, HUM, INTC, NVDA, QCOM, SAP, TSM, WWD | aerospace, duration, healthcare, long-term, semiconductors, technology, value |
HUM AMZN WWD SAP TSM |
Eagle Capital targets companies with temporary near-term issues that resolve to stronger long-term positions. Current focus includes Humana's Medicare margin recovery, Amazon's efficiency gains, and TSMC's AI/automotive exposure. Despite market valuation concerns, high dispersion creates opportunities in controversial names. The firm is actively recycling capital into higher-return positions. |
| Feb 21 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AMZN, AON, BAYRY, C, CHTR, CMCSA, COF, COP, ELV, GE, GOOGL, GS, HLT, IAC, LBRDK, MAR, META, MSFT, NFLX, OXY | energy, fiscal policy, inflation, Long Term, technology, value | - | Eagle Capital maintains its concentrated, long-term value approach with 35-year track record of outperformance. The firm sees attractive opportunities in unloved energy stocks trading at wide free-cash-flow yields. Portfolio trades at discount despite superior expected growth. Key concern is unsustainable 6-7% fiscal deficit creating inflationary pressures and requiring tighter future policy environment. |
| Nov 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMZN, COP, GOOGL, META, MSFT, OXY, SHEL, V | Capital Allocation, energy, Magnificent Seven, oil, technology, value |
COP SHEL DOXY |
Eagle's concentrated strategy delivered positive Q3 returns while markets declined, trimming Magnificent Seven technology positions after strong performance while building energy positions in ConocoPhillips, Shell, and Occidental Petroleum. The energy thesis capitalizes on supply-demand imbalances created by premature investment decline due to electric vehicle fears, quality management teams, and potential portfolio protection during supply shocks. |
| Aug 4 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMZN, AON, BAYRY, COF, COP, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, SHEL, UNH | AI, Cloud, Data, disruption, Distribution, energy, technology | - | Eagle Capital positions for AI disruption by favoring companies with distribution control and data advantages like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, while building energy positions in ConocoPhillips and Shell as atoms businesses face minimal AI disruption. The firm expects rich opportunities as AI transforms industries but remains sober about the early stage and uncertain roadmap ahead. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is creating disruption risks across software companies but also opportunities. The technology is widening the distribution of outcomes for businesses, with some facing impairment while others may benefit. AI is deflationary for engineering costs and will change workflows. Danaher may benefit from AI applications in biopharma research as a medium to long-term accelerator. |
Software Disruption Biopharma Engineering Workflows |
Managed CareUnitedHealth Group and Humana are positioned for a multi-year improvement in margins and returns after Medicare Advantage bottomed from cost/price squeeze. Both companies are implementing AI and reducing costs as incremental tailwinds. Expected annual EPS growth exceeding 20% at weighted position. |
Medicare Healthcare Margins Cost Reduction | |
E-commerceMercado Libre dominates Latin American e-commerce with complementary fintech business. Latin America has low e-commerce penetration at mid-teens versus nearly 30% in US, enabling longer runway for extraordinary growth. Company investing heavily to capture opportunity with revenue growth accelerating to 39%. |
Latin America Fintech Penetration Growth | |
Natural GasEQT is the largest pure play US natural gas producer with long-lived assets and low-cost structure in Marcellus shale. Natural gas trades at wide discount to global prices. Combination of US electricity demand inflection, LNG export growth, and Middle East disruption may narrow this discount over next 5-10 years. |
LNG Electricity Exports Marcellus | |
Capital MarketsLondon Stock Exchange Group and S&P Global operate critical financial market infrastructure with dominant market share or monopoly positions. Both have AI-disruption risk in parts of enterprise but analysis indicates risks are limited to small subset and likely offset by AI-driven upside in data segments. |
Infrastructure Data Monopoly Trading | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Defense SpendingManager maintains exposure to global armaments companies, noting the entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. Despite Q4 underperformance, the position materially outperformed for the full year with top contributors including Rheinmetall, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. |
Defense Armaments Military Geopolitical Security |
GoldManager holds both physical gold bullion and a leveraged gold exposure called 'Gresham's Wrath' that combines 1.5x gold exposure with option income generation. Gold demand from global central banks is accelerating while US Treasuries are being reduced, with growing mistrust driving physical deliveries. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Central Banks Inflation | |
Capital MarketsManager maintains positions in exchanges like Nasdaq and Chicago Board of Options Exchange, viewing them as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage. These exposures materially outperformed for the year, benefiting from trading volume growth and proprietary products. |
Exchanges Trading Financial Infrastructure Technology Data | |
CommoditiesManager uses managed futures strategy across North American and European commodities including energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock. The strategy underperformed in 2025 due to counter-trend reversals post-Liberation Day, though precious metals like gold and silver were positive contributors. |
Futures Energy Agriculture Metals Volatility | |
EnergyManager holds West Texas real estate with associated oil, gas, and water rights, describing it as a capital-light compounding machine with perpetual royalty income. The position underperformed in Q4 and for the year, with Texas Pacific Land Corp being the key detractor. |
Oil Gas Royalties Real Estate Permian | |
CryptoManager completely exited Bitcoin position in mid-November despite long-term bullish views, using a risk management framework similar to commodity trading funds. The exit was well-timed as Bitcoin continued falling while US Large Cap equities they rotated into increased in value. |
Bitcoin Digital Assets Risk Management Volatility Alternative | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GamingNintendo's Switch 2 has achieved record-breaking sales of over 10 million units in its first four months, making it the fastest-growing gaming hardware in history. The company benefits from a dual-platform position with both Switch 2 and legacy Switch contributing to profits, with strong software attach rates driving business model transformation. |
Nintendo Switch Hardware Software Console |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is transitioning from R&D to commercialization of its space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to normal smartphones. The company aims to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions, positioning for initial service rollout in 2026. |
AST Satellites Cellular Broadband Connectivity | |
AINebius secured a $19+ billion multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, providing significant earnings visibility. The company has contracted 1 GW of power capacity supporting almost $10 billion of annual revenue potential, positioning it as a credible AI infrastructure provider in the early innings of a long deployment cycle. |
AI Infrastructure Microsoft Power Compute | |
AerospaceFTAI Aviation operates as a vertically integrated industrial platform capturing attractive aftermarket aviation economics through its Module Factory and Strategic Capital Initiative. The company manufactures 'green time' at structurally lower costs than OEMs, creating immediate part availability in a supply-constrained market. |
Aviation Aftermarket Engines Modules Maintenance | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GamingNintendo delivered a blockbuster quarter with the Switch 2's record-breaking launch, selling over 3.5 million consoles in the first four days and 5.82 million units through June. The company is transforming from cyclical earnings to secular growth with its Apple-like iterative hardware model and software ecosystem. |
Nintendo Switch Console Hardware Software |
Satellite BroadbandAST SpaceMobile is pioneering space-based cellular broadband to eliminate coverage gaps and bring affordable broadband to billions. The company is rapidly advancing to commercial scale with 45-60 satellites expected by year-end 2026 and cash flow breakeven expected by Q1 2026. |
Satellites Broadband Connectivity Infrastructure Space | |
Trade PolicyThe quarter began with tariff uncertainties as rates reached 9.75% average effective rate in July with country-specific rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Markets learned to price in tariff uncertainty as the administration's negotiating patterns became clear, with the 'TACO Trade' meme reflecting market adaptation. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Negotiations Uncertainty | |
Small CapsSmall caps continued to lag with Russell 2000 Value generating only 5% returns for the quarter while the fund delivered 36.9% net returns. The manager emphasizes small company stocks offer an unusually fertile hunting ground for outsized risk-adjusted wealth creation despite ongoing headwinds. |
Small Cap Value Outperformance Russell Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration is serious about changing trade flows and will implement significant tariffs, though ultimate levies expected to come down from headline rates. Tariffs are a form of consumption tax shared by consumers and foreign exporters, with corporate profits expected to be somewhat lower. Manufacturing capacity additions to the U.S. will be limited to quick-cycle projects with good returns on capital. |
Tariffs Manufacturing Trade Consumption Exports |
InflationContrary to many expectations, tariffs may not lead to inflationary shock as consumers will be forced to economize without more money to spend. High inflation expected in a small part of the economy with stable-to-declining prices across much of the rest. Bond market inflation breakevens declined 0.2% following tariff announcement. |
Tariffs Deflation Consumer Breakevens Prices | |
OilOil price dropped $10 following tariff announcement, translating to almost $75 billion per year of savings for U.S. oil consumers. This represents roughly 25% of the $300 billion expected to be raised from tariffs. ConocoPhillips was one of the worst performers during the market crash with no direct tariff exposure. |
Energy Savings Consumer Volatility Prices | |
BuybacksCompanies with stable earnings returning capital may see higher EPS out five years if stock price declines allow advantageous repurchases. AerCap has reduced share count by 25% over past two years and may buy back more than 10% of shares this year. Several portfolio companies are similarly positioned for capital return benefits. |
Capital EPS Repurchases Returns Shares | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueEagle defines value as a philosophy anchored in math, seeking investments that can generate double-digit returns by reaching a 10% yield on capital employed. The firm analyzes long-term earnings power rather than current multiples, as demonstrated by their 10-year forward earnings yield analysis of S&P 500 companies. |
Long-term Earnings Yield Undervalued Math |
Managed CareThe managed care industry faces cyclical pressures, regulatory changes, and headline risk causing earnings pressure and multiple compression. Medicare Advantage has experienced dramatic downturn, with UnitedHealth as the largest player having a disappointing year while Humana suffered greatly as a pure play. |
Medicare Regulatory Cyclical Reimbursement Ratings | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AerospaceEagle views aerospace as one of the most attractive segments of the global economy, driven by strong demand growth and technical moats. The company highlights Woodward's unique position in aerospace aftermarket with tripled content share on new generation narrowbody aircraft. |
Aftermarket Commercial Aviation Defense Components |
| 2024 Q2 |
ConcentrationThe S&P 500 has approximately 35% of its capital in only 10 companies, nearly double the concentration the index has averaged over the past twenty years. Eight of the top ten companies are in technology, creating extreme sector concentration risk that makes the index riskier than historically. |
Index concentration Technology weighting Sector risk Market cap weighting Passive investing |
ValuationThe S&P 500 trades at elevated multiples with dramatic expansion from ~16x to ~22x over the past decade. High starting valuations create mean reversion pressures that suggest mid-single-digit returns for the next decade would not be surprising. |
Multiple expansion Forward P/E Mean reversion Starting valuations Expected returns | |
AINvidia's customers are investing in GPU capacity well ahead of uncertain end demand, with the stock pricing that this level of spend will continue and increase. The further the investment cycle goes without large proven use cases that enterprises and consumers will pay for, the more exposed Nvidia becomes to a drastic downturn. |
GPU capacity End demand uncertainty Investment cycle Use cases Enterprise adoption | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Managed CareHumana's Medicare Advantage business faces margin pressure from post-pandemic medical procedure catch-up, tighter CMS reimbursement, and industry mispricing. The company expects 2024-25 earnings weakness but believes industry conditions are near trough with multi-year recovery ahead. |
Medicare Healthcare Reimbursement Margins Recovery |
CloudSAP is transitioning its massive ERP customer base to cloud-available S/4HANA product. While the transition is long and uneven with initial revenue growth decline, the migration should drive higher monetization and above-trend revenue growth against modest cost structure growth. |
ERP Migration SaaS Enterprise Monetization | |
SemiconductorsTSMC faced worst revenue growth since 2008 due to declining smartphone and PC sales plus inventory adjustments. However, the company continues gaining market share and has large opportunities in AI and automotive silicon with less risk than fabless firms as a toll on the entire industry. |
Foundry AI Automotive Market Share Cyclical | |
E-commerceAmazon overestimated post-Covid e-commerce demand and increased capacity too much, leading to underutilization and inefficiency. Management is addressing these fixable execution issues with a multiyear view, driving significant earnings upgrades and future margin improvement. |
Capacity Efficiency Margins Recovery Execution | |
| 2023 Q4 |
EnergyAfter prolonged poor industry performance, structural supply/demand dynamics are attractive. Energy stocks trade at historically wide free-cash-flow-yield advantage to overall market. Geopolitical risks may cause energy price spikes, yet sector weighting is near all-time lows as percentage of overall market. |
Oil Natural Gas Energy Transition Geopolitical Free Cash Flow |
ValueEagle's portfolio trades at discount to overall market despite being comprised of companies expected to have superior EPS growth. The discount widens the further out they look, putting time on their side. Focus on attractive valuation and ability to organically compound earnings. |
Discount EPS Growth Compounding Valuation Long Term | |
InflationCurrent fiscal deficit level of 6-7% of GDP during full employment is inherently inflationary. While currently benefiting from disinflation due to supply-side improvements and tighter monetary policy, this may attenuate with time as fiscal stimulus continues. |
Fiscal Deficit GDP Monetary Policy Supply Side Stimulus | |
| 2023 Q3 |
OilEagle built positions in three energy stocks over 16 months based on attractive long-term supply-demand balance, quality assets well-positioned on the global cost curve, and strong capital allocation by management teams. The thesis centers on supply investment being subdued due to pressure from shareholders, regulators, and environmental groups, while decline rates require 9% annual new supply creation to meet demand growth. Electric vehicles represent a paradox - their threat to demand is actually depressing supply investment before the world is ready, creating opportunity. |
Supply Demand Decline Rates Electric Vehicles Capital Allocation |
Energy TransitionThe long-term bear case on oil demand growth from electric vehicles is critical to Eagle's bullish energy view. EVs will reduce gasoline and diesel demand over decades, but this clear headwind is depressing supply-side investment prematurely. Norway's EV penetration going from 0% to 84% over 12 years only reduced fuel consumption by 0.9% annually due to fleet turnover lag. The IEA projects EV penetration growing from 14% in 2022 to 35% in 2030, implying gradual oil demand decline. |
Electric Vehicles Gasoline Diesel Fleet Turnover IEA | |
Capital AllocationManagement quality is even more critical in capital-intensive industries like energy production. ConocoPhillips generates $24.6 billion in cash from operations annually and must allocate this between capex, buybacks, acquisitions, and dividends - decisions corresponding to the entire company value every 5-6 years. Eagle's three energy holdings returned almost 11% of their market caps to shareholders over the past year through buybacks and dividends. |
Cash Flow Buybacks Dividends Capex Management | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIEagle views AI as creating both opportunities and risks across three categories: automation, personalization, and generative AI. The firm believes distribution control and data moats provide defensive advantages, while atoms businesses face less disruption than bits businesses. |
Automation Generative Distribution Data Disruption |
CloudHyper-scale cloud platforms like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform are well-positioned as AI accelerates demand for scaled infrastructure. Cloud is better suited for episodic AI workload demands than on-premise data centers. |
Infrastructure Hyperscale Workloads Computing | |
Data CentersAI computing is enormously energy-intensive, providing a modest tailwind to energy demand. Cloud infrastructure will handle the vast majority of AI workloads versus on-premise data centers. |
Energy Computing Infrastructure | |
Energy TransitionEagle built core positions in ConocoPhillips and Shell, viewing energy production as a fundamental atoms business unlikely to be revolutionized by AI. Energy stands out as comparatively undisturbed by AI disruption. |
Oil Production Atoms Undisturbed |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, Foundry, Pricing, semiconductors | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | ASML NA | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, Euv, Lithography, Monopoly, semiconductors | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | BAYN GR | Bayer AG | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Xetra | agriculture, Free Cash Flow, litigation, Seeds, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Clearing, Data, Exchanges, Subscriptions | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | SAP GR | SAP SE | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | Xetra | AI, cloud, ERP, Subscriptions, switching costs | Login |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | SHEL LN | Shell plc | Energy | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cashflow, dividends, energy, LNG | Login |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Data & Exchanges | Bull | NYSE | AI, buybacks, Clearing, Exchanges, financial data, growth, indices, Margins, recurring revenue, valuation | Login |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ravenel B. Curry III | LSEG LN | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Financial Data & Exchanges | Bull | NYSE | AI, buybacks, Clearing, Exchanges, financial data, growth, indices, Margins, recurring revenue, valuation | Login |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | NTDOY | Nintendo Co., Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | OTC | Console, Digital, Ecosystem, entertainment, franchise, Gaming, Hardware, Ip, Japan, Software | Login |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | broadband, Connectivity, infrastructure, LEO, Mobile, Satellite, SPAC, Space, technology, telecommunications | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | DOXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Berkshire Hathaway, capital allocation, energy, Free Cash Flow, low-cost assets, Oil & Gas, preferred securities, Share Buybacks, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | SAP | SAP SE | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NYSE | cloud transition, Enterprise software, ERP, Germany, margin expansion, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | SHEL | Shell plc | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | LSE | Asset Optimization, capital returns, Deepwater, energy, global leader, high-margin, LNG, natural gas, Oil & Gas | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cloud computing, e-commerce, growth, High Growth, Long-Term Compounding, Reinvestment, technology | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | WWD | Woodward Inc. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Commercial Aircraft, Cyclical Recovery, Industrial Controls, manufacturing, market share, Operational Turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | HUM | Humana Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, Cyclical Recovery, defensive, healthcare, managed care, market leader, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, automotive, Cyclical, Foundry, market leader, Process Technology, semiconductors, Taiwan | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | AWS, Capacity utilization, Cloud computing, e-commerce, margin expansion, operational efficiency, technology, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Alaska, capital allocation, cash flow, E&P, energy, Long-cycle Projects, Oil & Gas, Shale, shareholder returns | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Inc | Health Care | Health Care Providers & Services | Bull | NYSE | Diversified Business, healthcare, Long-term holding, managed care, market leadership, Medicare Advantage, Regulatory risk | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | WWD | Woodward, Inc. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, aftermarket, Commercial Aviation, Engine Controls, growth, margin expansion, Narrowbody aircraft, Sole Source, Technical Moats, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | HUM | Humana Inc | Health Care | Health Care Providers & Services | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, earnings decline, healthcare, Medicare Advantage, Pure-Play, regulatory challenges, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Eagle Capital Management | COP | ConocoPhillips | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | capital allocation, Cyclical, energy, High Free Cash Flow, Modest Growth, Oil & Gas, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group and Humana, two of the leading providers of managed care, have significant scale advantages in a consolidated industry that outgrows the overall economy. The two companies have struggled over the past few years as Medicare Advantage went through a downcycle of cost/price squeeze. We believe conditions have bottomed and that we are transitioning to a multi-year improvement in margins and returns. Actions by each to reduce costs and implement AI through their businesses are incremental tailwinds. At our weighted position, we expect annual EPS growth exceeding 20%. |
| HUM | UnitedHealth Group and Humana, two of the leading providers of managed care, have significant scale advantages in a consolidated industry that outgrows the overall economy. The two companies have struggled over the past few years as Medicare Advantage went through a downcycle of cost/price squeeze. We believe conditions have bottomed and that we are transitioning to a multi-year improvement in margins and returns. Actions by each to reduce costs and implement AI through their businesses are incremental tailwinds. At our weighted position, we expect annual EPS growth exceeding 20%. |
| MELI | Mercado Libre is the leading e-commerce platform in Latin America, with a complementary fintech business. The company has a dominant share in most of its markets. It has used this position to build an integrated flywheel with payment and banking products that allow it to further monetize its platform and better engage with consumers and sellers. Latin America has relatively low e-commerce penetration—we estimate it at the mid-teens, compared with nearly 30% in the U.S.—enabling a longer runway for extraordinary growth. The company is investing heavily to capture this opportunity. Last year, revenue growth accelerated to 39%, while margins declined. We expect further declines this year. We believe current earnings would be more than 50% higher without these investments. But foregoing this spending would be a mistake. In some ways, the company reminds us of Amazon a decade ago. As with Amazon, management operates the business well, doesn't manage for short-term earnings, and has a superb track record of creating long-term value. We expect EPS growth to exceed 30% over the coming years. |
| SAP | SAP, Workday, and Intuit are highly entrenched application software businesses. SAP's ERP software is among the stickiest and most durable businesses in the world. Software is lately controversial due to AI-driven disruption. AI is deflationary for engineering costs and will change many workflows in how software is used. The technology is widening the distribution of 5- to 10-year outcomes for these businesses. In some cases, the central tendency shifts lower; in others, it's stable or even shifts upward. The entire space has sold off over the past year, and we believe the recovery will be more heterogeneous than the decline. Many businesses will be impaired, but a number will likely benefit. We have positioned ourselves with companies that we expect to be comparatively resilient, that also have idiosyncratic earnings growth paths or call options. SAP will face tougher competition in its peripheral products, but its core is highly defensible, and we think it will grow rapidly over the next five years, driven by its cloud migration. We expect EPS growth of around 20% for the group. |
| WDAY | Workday is the only de novo ERP to be successfully built in decades, with the leading global human capital management position and a large financials platform. Workday earns well below normalized margins today and may reignite product development with the return of its founder to the CEO role. We expect EPS growth of around 20% for the group. |
| INTU | Intuit is a household name because of TurboTax, but its largest business and growth engine is QuickBooks, which operates as a functional monopoly in small-business accounting software in the U.S. Intuit's QuickBooks has singularly valuable distribution to small businesses and is weaving AI capabilities into its products to better serve this hard-to-reach customer. We expect EPS growth of around 20% for the group. |
| DHR | We've built a position in Danaher, a leading life sciences company. Danaher sells a broad mix of consumables and tooling that are mission-critical to biological R&D, diagnostic testing, and biopharma drug production. It has high market share, differentiated technology, strong management, and good growth prospects. Over the last several years, Covid-related revenue disappeared, the biotech end-market boomed and then crashed, China slowed, and NIH funding was cut. As a result, this historically stable grower has been anything but stable or growing. It's now trading at a depressed multiple on depressed earnings. With lower-quality earnings flushed out of the base and other parts running below trend, we expect improving, and possibly even above trend, growth over the coming years. Moreover, one of the most exciting areas of exploration for AI technology is in biopharma research. This has the potential to be a medium- to long-term accelerator for Danaher's business. We expect EPS growth in the mid-teens. |
| LSEG.L | London Stock Exchange Group ("LSEG") and S&P Global operate critical financial market infrastructure. LSEG has trading and clearing venues, data and applications businesses, and the FTSE Russell Index business. The segments generally have dominant market share or even monopoly positions, above-GDP revenue growth, high margins with even higher incrementals, and good free-cash-flow conversion. These stocks are interesting today because each also has AI-disruption risk in parts of the enterprise. Our analysis indicates that these risks are limited to a small subset of the business and are likely more than offset by AI-driven upside in the data segments. In time, we believe the stocks are reasonably likely to be perceived as beneficiaries of AI. Given today's depressed multiples, this situation presents an attractive asymmetry. We forecast EPS growth in the mid-teens in the coming years. |
| SPGI | S&P Global operates the S&P ratings business, the S&P index business, Platts, and a portfolio of data and applications businesses. The segments generally have dominant market share or even monopoly positions, above-GDP revenue growth, high margins with even higher incrementals, and good free-cash-flow conversion. These stocks are interesting today because each also has AI-disruption risk in parts of the enterprise. Our analysis indicates that these risks are limited to a small subset of the business and are likely more than offset by AI-driven upside in the data segments. In time, we believe the stocks are reasonably likely to be perceived as beneficiaries of AI. Given today's depressed multiples, this situation presents an attractive asymmetry. We forecast EPS growth in the mid-teens in the coming years. |
| EQT | EQT is the largest pure play U.S. natural gas producer. The company has long-lived assets, with decades of inventory. It also has a low-cost structure due to its enviable position in the Marcellus shale and captive pipeline assets. Management has an excellent track record of making wise strategic and capital allocation decisions. Despite selling a commodity product, EQT is a high-quality business with operating margins exceeding those of 80-90% of S&P 500 companies. Natural gas in the U.S. trades at a wide discount to global prices. The combination of the inflection in U.S. electricity demand, LNG export growth, and disruption in the Middle East may narrow this discount over the next 5-10 years. We expect EPS growth in the mid-teens. |
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