The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elm Wealth's Q3 2025 letter describes an exceptionally quiet quarter for asset allocation with no material changes to US equity, non-US equity, or fixed-income weights. The firm maintains low US risk levels due to unattractive expected returns, with US markets offering only a 1.3% risk premium relative to safe assets. In contrast, non-US markets provide more compelling opportunities with 3-6% risk premia and low risk levels. Client concerns about US P/E ratios near 40x prompted discussion of the firm's preferred PCAPE metric, which suggests US long-term expected real returns of 3-3.5% - quite low compared to 2% real yields on 10-year TIPS. The firm emphasizes that high P/E ratios imply low future returns rather than mean reversion. Portfolio changes included removing municipal bond exposure in favor of aggregate investment-grade bonds for improved ETF efficiency. The letter also introduces their new lifetime investing tool ELISA and announces an upcoming educational event in NYC.
Dynamic asset allocation based on risk premia and risk levels across global markets, currently favoring non-US equity exposure over US markets due to more attractive expected returns.
Markets remained in the same configuration throughout Q3 with US expected returns unattractive relative to safe assets and non-US markets offering better risk-adjusted opportunities. The firm expects to maintain current positioning given these dynamics.
As of Sep 30, 2025
Elm Wealth was founded in 2011 by Victor Haghani, a seasoned financial markets veteran with 40 years of experience. Haghani co-founded Long-Term Capital Management in 1993 and was a founding partner of JWM Partners after LTCM's collapse. He founded Elm Wealth because existing wealth management options weren't meeting his standards for managing his family's wealth. James White joined as CEO in 2018, bringing two decades of finance experience across quantitative research, market-making, investing, and wealth management from firms including Bank of America, Citadel Investment Group, and PAC Partners. Together, Haghani and White co-authored 'The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions' published in 2023. The management team personally invests over 80% of their liquid assets in Elm, demonstrating strong alignment with clients.
Elm Wealth's investment approach is called Dynamic Index Investing®, which provides research-driven, practical personal wealth management solutions. Their investment philosophy centers on global diversification, cost and tax efficiency, significant equity exposure, and consistent investment sizing decisions. The approach is a rules-based asset allocation methodology that uses baseline portfolios with value and momentum overlays to respond to changing market conditions. Elm blends hedge fund-level investment acumen with the simplicity and cost-effectiveness of a robo-advisor. The Dynamic Index Investing® approach uses a Baseline Portfolio that assumes a 4% risk premium environment and uses dynamic scaling to adjust asset allocation based on market risk premia and momentum signals. The investment program employs dynamic asset allocation strategies aiming to outperform benchmark portfolios over a long-term horizon of 10 to 20 years, using a primarily rules-based approach based on valuation and momentum factors.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction in their valuation framework, specifically defending their PCAPE methodology and clearly articulating why they prefer non-US markets. They maintain consistent positioning despite client concerns, showing confidence in their analytical approach.
Growth Outlook
The manager expresses concern about US market valuations with P/E ratios near 40x and describes US expected returns as 'pretty unattractive' relative to safe assets. However, they find non-US markets more attractive with better risk premia, creating a mixed but slightly negative overall market outlook.
Risk Appetite
The firm maintains 'low US risk levels' and describes the quarter as exceptionally quiet with no material allocation changes. This suggests a cautious, defensive posture rather than aggressive risk-taking, though they remain constructive on non-US opportunities.
Capital Deployment
The letter explicitly states that Q3 was 'as quiet on the asset allocation front as we've ever seen' with no material weight changes. The only change mentioned was a tactical shift from municipal to aggregate bonds for efficiency, indicating neutral deployment activity.
Forward Guidance
The manager indicates markets 'remained in exactly this configuration throughout the quarter' and expects to maintain current positioning. There's no clear directional bias toward increasing or decreasing risk, suggesting a neutral wait-and-see approach.
Language Signal
Language includes negative descriptors like 'unattractive' for US returns and 'high' for valuations, but is balanced by 'attractive' descriptions of non-US opportunities. The tone is analytical and measured rather than strongly directional.
Perceived Risk
The manager acknowledges elevated US valuations with P/E ratios near 40x and describes expected returns as unattractive, indicating moderate risk awareness. However, they don't express systemic concerns and maintain that high P/Es don't necessarily mean reversion risk.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees limited opportunity in US markets due to poor risk-adjusted returns but identifies better opportunities in non-US markets with 3-6% risk premia. This suggests selective rather than broad opportunity availability.
Time Horizon
The focus on long-term expected real returns, PCAPE methodology, and emphasis that high P/Es imply low long-term returns rather than near-term mean reversion indicates a patient, multi-year investment horizon and approach to capital allocation.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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