Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2% | - | -3.8% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.8% | 28.5% | 42.8% | -14.0% | 36.3% | 8.1% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2% | - | -3.8% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.8% | 28.5% | 42.8% | -14.0% | 36.3% | 8.1% |
Emeth Value Capital delivered -3.79% net returns in 2025 versus +22.41% for MSCI ACWI, underperforming by 26.20%. The manager reflects on lessons learned from worst performing investments, identifying five key patterns: market share fluidity risks, leverage vulnerabilities in growth businesses, scale disadvantages, directional misjudgments, and focusing on potential rather than existing outcomes. Superior Plus exemplifies the preferred investment profile as North America's leading propane distributor serving 750,000 customers with sticky relationships due to company-owned tanks and container laws. The company's Superior Delivers transformation program targets $70 million in EBITDA improvements by 2027 through cost optimization and customer growth. Certarus provides additional exposure to energy infrastructure through compressed natural gas delivery, benefiting from AI data center buildout and renewable natural gas transport. The portfolio emphasizes physical activity businesses protected from AI displacement while participating in infrastructure growth. Despite near-term underperformance, the manager maintains conviction in businesses with durable competitive advantages, predictable cash flows, and clear operational improvement pathways.
Focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages, predictable cash flows, and protection from market share fluidity, exemplified by Superior Plus' dominant propane distribution platform with sticky customer relationships and ongoing operational transformation.
The manager expresses cautious optimism about the portfolio's positioning in physical activity businesses that remain protected from AI displacement while benefiting from AI infrastructure growth. Superior Plus transformation program provides clear operational improvement pathway, while the broader portfolio benefits from scale advantages and sticky customer relationships.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 2026 | 2025 Q4 | SPB.TO | Canada, CNG, Consolidation, Distribution, energy, Propane, Transformation, value | SPB CN | Superior Plus is a leading North American propane distributor serving 750,000 customers with sticky customer relationships due to company-owned tanks and container laws. The propane… |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Compounding, Discipline, Leverage, Operating Leverage, Pricing Power | SWON SE | The commentary explores leverage as a core driver of long-term compounding through operating leverage, pricing power, and scalable business models. Management emphasizes asymmetric outcomes where… |
| Feb 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | SEAT | - | - | - |
| Aug 14 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BDEV LN, MO | - | - | - |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | DRVN | - | - | - |
| Jan 8 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BEP, BIP, BN, DKS | - | - | - |
| Dec 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | DESP | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Energy TransitionEnergy transition themes are reflected through infrastructure investments and companies positioned for the global push toward renewable energy, including exposure to energy services and LNG infrastructure where long-term dynamics look positive. |
Renewables Infrastructure Clean Energy Sustainability Climate | |
Natural GasKodiak Gas Services provides mission-critical large-horsepower compression infrastructure upstream of LNG exports and downstream power demand from AI-driven data centers. The company benefits from robust demand in the Permian and other basins through long-term, take-or-pay style contracts. |
LNG Energy Infrastructure Compression Permian Energy | |
PropaneSuperior Plus is a leading North American propane distributor serving 750,000 customers with sticky customer relationships due to company-owned tanks and container laws. The propane industry benefits from stable demand, high switching costs, and pricing power. Superior is executing a transformation program targeting $70 million in EBITDA improvements through cost optimization and customer growth initiatives. |
Propane Distribution Energy Utilities North America | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Leverage |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Carreon | SPB CN | Superior Plus Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cashflow, consolidation, Distribution, EBITDA, energy, Logistics, Propane, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Andrew Carreon | SWON SE | SoftwareOne Holding AG | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | Swiss Exchange | cloud, Margins, Procurement, Software, transformation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SPB.TO | Superior Plus is a leading North American distributor of propane, serving 750,000 residential and commercial customers across the U.S. and Canada. The company was founded in Ontario, Canada in 1951, and today delivers approximately one billion gallons of propane annually, making the group the largest and most profitable propane distributor in North America on a per gallon basis. Superior Plus has grown rapidly in recent years through more than $3 billion in acquisitions, a new leadership team has now refocused on operations to cement the advantages of this large-scale platform. The Superior Delivers transformation program announced in November 2024 targets a $70 million increase in EBITDA by 2027 through cost to serve improvements and customer growth initiatives. The base case scenario implies a fair value of C$17.79 per share, or 153 percent upside to intrinsic value. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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