Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.15% | 0% | -3.79% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.8% | 28.5% | 42.8% | -14.0% | 36.3% | 8.1% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.15% | 0% | -3.79% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.8% | 28.5% | 42.8% | -14.0% | 36.3% | 8.1% |
Emeth Value Capital delivered -3.79% net returns in 2025 versus +22.41% for MSCI ACWI, underperforming by 26.20%. The manager reflects on lessons learned from worst performing investments, identifying five key patterns: market share fluidity risks, leverage vulnerabilities in growth businesses, scale disadvantages, directional misjudgments, and focusing on potential rather than existing outcomes. Superior Plus exemplifies the preferred investment profile as North America's leading propane distributor serving 750,000 customers with sticky relationships due to company-owned tanks and container laws. The company's Superior Delivers transformation program targets $70 million in EBITDA improvements by 2027 through cost optimization and customer growth. Certarus provides additional exposure to energy infrastructure through compressed natural gas delivery, benefiting from AI data center buildout and renewable natural gas transport. The portfolio emphasizes physical activity businesses protected from AI displacement while participating in infrastructure growth. Despite near-term underperformance, the manager maintains conviction in businesses with durable competitive advantages, predictable cash flows, and clear operational improvement pathways.
Focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages, predictable cash flows, and protection from market share fluidity, exemplified by Superior Plus' dominant propane distribution platform with sticky customer relationships and ongoing operational transformation.
The manager expresses cautious optimism about the portfolio's positioning in physical activity businesses that remain protected from AI displacement while benefiting from AI infrastructure growth. Superior Plus transformation program provides clear operational improvement pathway, while the broader portfolio benefits from scale advantages and sticky customer relationships.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 2026 | 2025 Q4 | SPB.TO | Canada, CNG, Consolidation, Distribution, energy, Propane, Transformation, value | SPB CN | Emeth Value Capital underperformed significantly in 2025 but maintains focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages. Superior Plus represents the investment philosophy through its dominant propane distribution platform with sticky customer relationships and ongoing operational transformation targeting $70 million EBITDA improvement. Portfolio positioned in physical activity businesses protected from AI displacement while benefiting from infrastructure growth. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ADBE, AMZN, BN, BRK-B, BYTZ.L, CDW, CTG.L, DHR, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, META, MO, MSFT, NOW, NSIT, ORCL, SWON.SW | Cloud, Enterprise, Leverage, Microsoft, Operating Leverage, software, technology |
SWON SE SWON.SW |
Emeth Value Capital focuses on businesses with one-sided operating leverage, combining downside protection with upside growth potential. The primary holding, SoftwareOne, experienced significant challenges in 2024 but is positioned for recovery through new leadership, cost reduction, and the strategic Crayon merger, creating substantial value creation opportunities in the expanding enterprise cloud market. |
| Feb 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | DRVN, SEAT, UA | Concentrated Portfolio, Entertainment, Event Ticketing, Expectations, marketplaces, Reflexivity, Value Investing | - | Emeth Value Capital's concentrated value approach delivered 28.51% returns in 2024, outperforming by 12.08%. The portfolio offers superior earnings yields compared to concentrated S&P 500 indices. Extensive analysis of Vivid Seats highlights secondary ticketing opportunities at attractive valuations. The manager leverages inverse reflexivity dynamics where low expectations create strategic flexibility for portfolio companies. |
| Aug 14 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BDEV.L, MO, RDW.L | Capital Cycle, Homebuilders, regulation, supply, Tobacco, United Kingdom, value | - | Capital cycle analysis drives investment in UK homebuilding leader Barratt Developments, where regulatory complexity creates oligopolistic returns despite declining volumes. Barratt-Redrow merger enhances multi-branding capabilities with eighty-five percent upside to intrinsic value. Similar to tobacco case study, supply-side constraints generate exceptional returns for incumbents with structural competitive advantages. |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | DRVN | Automotive, Consolidation, Franchising, small cap, value | DRVN | Value investing has been damaged by passive flows, but this creates extraordinary opportunities for remaining practitioners. Emeth targets companies at 5x earnings that return cash through dividends and buybacks, building portfolios so cheap success is nearly inevitable. Driven Brands exemplifies this approach - trading at 9x EBITDA despite 40% discount to peers and superior growth from Take 5 Oil Change expansion delivering 45% returns on new locations. |
| Jan 8 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BBU, BEP, BIP, BN, DKS | Alternative Asset Managers, Brookfield, infrastructure, insurance, real estate, Renewable Energy, Value Investing | ABBN SW | Concentrated value fund focused on Brookfield Corporation, a leading alternative asset manager trading at a significant discount following its asset management spin-off. The manager sees 79% upside potential driven by Brookfield's diversified real asset platform spanning renewables, infrastructure, and real estate. The thesis centers on long-term value creation in high-quality businesses with strong management ownership. |
| Dec 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | DESP | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Small CapsThe fund operates a concentrated Micro and Small-Cap strategy that naturally diverges from market indexes. Portfolio consists of ~60% businesses with market caps below $500M, with top five positions accounting for ~60% of the portfolio. |
Microcap Small Cap Concentration |
| 2025 Q2 |
LeverageManager explores various forms of leverage as force multipliers for extraordinary outcomes, including financial leverage, operating leverage through pricing power, and technology-enabled hyperscalability. Emphasizes one-sided operating leverage where downside is protected by durable cash flows while upside benefits from growth with operating leverage. |
Operating leverage Pricing power Financial leverage Scalability Margin expansion |
CloudExtensive discussion of cloud computing transformation in enterprise IT, including migration from on-premise to cloud-based solutions, Microsoft's cloud strategy evolution, and the growing importance of cloud solution providers in the technology ecosystem. |
Cloud migration Azure AWS Cloud infrastructure SaaS | |
Enterprise SoftwareDeep analysis of enterprise software licensing business models, evolution from perpetual licenses to subscription-based models, and the critical role of software asset management in helping organizations optimize their IT spend across hundreds of vendors. |
Software licensing Enterprise agreements Software asset management IT optimization Subscription models | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Event TicketingExtensive analysis of Vivid Seats as a secondary ticketing marketplace with 20% US market share. The live events industry has grown faster than GDP for 34 of the last 40 years. Secondary ticketing represents $17 billion annually with 20% commission rates versus primary's $45 billion at 5-7% rates. |
Secondary Markets Live Events Marketplace Commission Rates Market Share |
EntertainmentLive entertainment spending has increased faster than GDP for 34 of 40 years, growing at 1.4x GDP rate. Artists now derive 90% of income from touring versus 50% from album sales in 1997. Over 10,000 artists now tour North America, up 40% from a decade ago. |
Live Music Touring Revenue Artist Economics Concert Industry Revenue Streams | |
MarketplacesVivid Seats operates as a leading online marketplace with unique competitive advantages including Skybox ERP platform used by 70% of professional brokers, proprietary data access, and white-label solutions generating $125 million in revenue. |
Platform Business Network Effects B2B Software Data Advantage White Label | |
| 2024 Q2 |
HomebuildersUK homebuilding industry benefits from structural supply constraints due to complex planning system. Only large volume builders can navigate regulatory complexity, creating oligopolistic market structure with exceptional returns on capital. |
Planning Supply Volume Regulation Oligopoly |
TobaccoTobacco industry demonstrates how regulatory barriers create pricing power despite declining volumes. Advertising bans prevent new entrants while excise taxes enhance pricing power for incumbents. |
Regulation Pricing Barriers Oligopoly Decline | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager emphasizes buying companies at extremely cheap valuations where fundamental buyers have disappeared due to passive investing. Strategy focuses on companies trading at 5x earnings that return cash through dividends and buybacks, building portfolios so cheap and unloved it will be difficult to lose. |
Multiple compression Passive investing Earnings yield Unloved stocks |
Auto AftermarketExtensive analysis of Driven Brands as the largest automotive services platform in North America with over 5,000 locations. Industry benefits from growing car parc, increasing vehicle complexity, and shift from DIY to DIFM services. Highly fragmented market provides consolidation opportunities. |
Automotive services Franchising Market consolidation Vehicle maintenance | |
Electric VehiclesManager argues EV transition concerns are overblown for oil change business. Analysis shows even with 50% BEV penetration in new car sales over a decade, ICE vehicles on road would only decline 8% due to slow fleet turnover. Geographic concentration in Gulf Coast states provides additional protection. |
EV transition Fleet turnover Geographic exposure ICE vehicles | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Alternative Asset ManagersBrookfield Corporation represents a leading global alternative asset manager with over $400 billion in assets under management. The manager views the alternative investment sector as positioned for robust growth, driven by increasing institutional allocations and the democratization of alternatives reaching retail investors. Brookfield's acquisition of Oaktree and strong franchises in renewables and infrastructure position it well for continued expansion. |
Asset Management Private Markets Institutional Retail Growth |
Renewable DevelopersBrookfield Renewable Partners owns one of the world's largest portfolios of hydroelectric, wind, solar, and renewable storage assets. The manager highlights the partnership's development pipeline of over 200,000 GWh of power projects and expects 5% annual cash flow growth from development activity. The quality of hydro assets provides perpetual cash flows with superior capacity factors compared to wind and solar. |
Hydroelectric Wind Solar Development Pipeline | |
Infrastructure SpendingBrookfield Infrastructure Partners owns critical global infrastructure including utilities, transport, midstream, and data segments. The manager emphasizes the partnership's proven record of consistent dealmaking across market cycles with a 26% blended IRR across concluded investments. Infrastructure assets provide inflation-indexed cash flows and long-term contracted revenues. |
Utilities Transport Midstream Data Contracted | |
Commercial Real EstateBrookfield owns a $22 billion portfolio of global office and retail properties, with the manager acknowledging current headwinds from rising interest rates. However, they emphasize that over 80% of their office portfolio consists of high-occupancy, trophy properties with long-term leases. The post-pandemic recovery has been weighted toward the best office assets as corporates trade up in quality. |
Office Retail Trophy Properties Occupancy Recovery | |
InsuranceBrookfield has invested heavily in scaling its insurance solutions business since 2020, underwriting predictable long-term insurance liabilities in life and annuity verticals. The manager views this as a better form of banking, borrowing long and investing long, targeting mid-teens returns on equity. Recent acquisitions of American National and American Equity position the business for significant scale. |
Life Insurance Annuities Underwriting Spread Scale |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Carreon | SPB CN | Superior Plus Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cashflow, consolidation, Distribution, EBITDA, energy, Logistics, Propane, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Andrew Carreon | SWON SE | SoftwareOne Holding AG | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | Swiss Exchange | cloud, Margins, Procurement, Software, transformation | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Emeth Value Capital | SWON.SW | SoftwareOne Holding AG | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | SIX Swiss Exchange | Channel partner, cloud solutions, Enterprise software, IT services, Merger Synergies, Microsoft Partner, Software Reseller, Switzerland, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Emeth Value Capital | DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Auto Glass, Automotive Services, Car wash, Collision Repair, DIFM, franchise, Multi-Site Operator, North America, Oil Change, private equity, Quick Service, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Aug 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Emeth Value Capital | ABBN SW | Brookfield Corporation | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | Alternative Asset Manager, Carried interest, demerger, Fee Related Earnings, infrastructure, Institutional Investors, permanent capital, private equity, Real Estate, Renewable Power | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SPB.TO | Superior Plus is a leading North American distributor of propane, serving 750,000 residential and commercial customers across the U.S. and Canada. The company was founded in Ontario, Canada in 1951, and today delivers approximately one billion gallons of propane annually, making the group the largest and most profitable propane distributor in North America on a per gallon basis. Superior Plus has grown rapidly in recent years through more than $3 billion in acquisitions, a new leadership team has now refocused on operations to cement the advantages of this large-scale platform. The Superior Delivers transformation program announced in November 2024 targets a $70 million increase in EBITDA by 2027 through cost to serve improvements and customer growth initiatives. The base case scenario implies a fair value of C$17.79 per share, or 153 percent upside to intrinsic value. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||