| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -20% | -22% |
EMA GARP Fund declined 20% in Q2 2026 as AI euphoria drove the NASDAQ up 21.6% while gold and mining stocks corrected sharply. The managers view this as a temporary setback in their core monetary debasement thesis. With US federal debt at 123% of GDP and annual deficits of 5-6%, they argue the government is effectively bankrupt and will be forced to inflate massively. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish posture is viewed as temporary theater before inevitable rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. The managers see financial war escalating between the West and Russia/China/Iran, with gold replacing US Treasuries as the global reserve asset. Far East central banks are accumulating gold aggressively while Western investors sell. The portfolio is concentrated in gold and silver miners trading at extreme valuations despite record profitability. Case studies of Aris Mining and Avino Silver demonstrate multi-bagger potential with substantial operating leverage to higher bullion prices. Sentiment indicators show extreme oversold conditions historically associated with major rallies. The managers maintain high conviction that their portfolio could double or triple in the next bull market leg, requiring only patience as the AI bubble and broader equity market face risks comparable to 1999 and 2007.
The US is effectively bankrupt with unsustainable debt levels and will be forced to inflate massively through money printing and yield curve control, making gold, silver, and mining stocks the primary beneficiaries of inevitable monetary debasement.
The managers remain highly confident in their thesis despite the grinding first half of 2026. They view the correction in gold, silver, and mining stocks as temporary, driven by AI euphoria and misplaced faith in Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkishness. The fundamental drivers of their monetary debasement thesis remain intact: unsustainable US debt, inevitable inflation, and the shift of gold from West to East as the global reserve asset. They expect the Fed to cut rates by year-end once task forces provide cover with lower inflation numbers. The managers see their mining portfolio as severely undervalued with potential to double or triple when the next leg up begins, requiring only patience as negative sentiment reaches 30-year lows. They view current conditions as similar to 1999/2000 when gold was ignored during the dotcom bubble before beginning a major bull market.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ARIS, ASM | AI Bubble, Federal Reserve, gold, inflation, Miners, Monetary Debasement, Silver, US Debt |
ARIS ASM |
EMA GARP Fund's 20% Q2 decline reflects temporary AI euphoria overshadowing their core monetary debasement thesis. With US debt at 123% of GDP and inevitable massive inflation ahead, gold and silver miners offer extreme asymmetry at current prices. Portfolio concentration in names like Aris and Avino provides multi-bagger potential with substantial operating leverage. Sentiment at 30-year lows signals major rally ahead as financial war drives gold's replacement of Treasuries as global reserve asset. |
| Apr 20 2026 | 2026 Q1 | LGLD.TO | Bitcoin, commodities, defense, Fed, gold, inflation, Mining, War | - | Precious metals correction creates opportunity in secular bull market driven by monetary debasement and Fed money printing necessity. Gold miners trading at historically cheap valuations with 70% margins while central banks accumulate reserves. War-driven inflation and unsustainable debt burden will force aggressive Fed easing despite stagflationary risks. |
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, HUI, SIL, XAU | Bitcoin, Federal Reserve, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, Silver, Sound Money | - | EMA GARP Fund gained 174.5% in 2025 betting on precious metals amid monetary system breakdown. Fed restarted money printing while Trump Administration plans massive fiscal stimulus. Gold and silver miners trade cheap relative to underlying metals despite 70% profit margins. Physical silver shortages emerging as critical mineral. Fund believes still early in secular sound money trend. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AEM, AU, AUMBF, MSTR, NEM | Bitcoin, debasement, gold, inflation, Mining, Monetary, Silver, sovereign debt |
AUMBF ASM CN |
EMA GARP Fund surged 48.85% in Q3 2025 and 131.4% year-to-date, capitalizing on gold and silver mining stocks as sovereign debt crisis unfolds. With gold at $4,200 and silver at record highs, the managers see early innings of monetary debasement trade. Mining stocks remain undervalued despite strong performance, offering asymmetric upside as institutional capital reallocates to this underrepresented sector. |
| Jul 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | NEM | Bitcoin, Fed policy, gold, inflation, Miners, Precious Metals, Silver, sovereign debt | - | EMA GARP Fund's 55.5% YTD return reflects successful positioning in precious metals ahead of an emerging sovereign debt crisis. Unsustainable U.S. deficits and Trump's push for lower rates signal inevitable monetary debasement within 12-18 months. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are breaking out as sound money alternatives, with mining stocks positioned to outperform in the early innings of this bull market. |
| Apr 17 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN | Bitcoin, Dollar, Fed, Fiscal, gold, inflation, Mining, tariffs | - | Trump's tariff shock popped the Everything Bubble, triggering sovereign debt crisis dynamics with simultaneous stock, bond, and dollar declines. Gold surged 60% as investors fled to sound money, while the fund's precious metals focus delivered 20.7% returns. With fiscal deficits spiraling and the Fed trapped, monetary accommodation will drive further gains in gold and miners. |
| Jan 21 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, LGCFF, META, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, ORCL, TSLA | Bitcoin, Fiscal Dominance, gold, inflation, Mining, Precious Metals, Silver | - | Fund positioned for sovereign debt crisis through 55% gold miners, 23% silver miners, 15% Bitcoin exposure. Despite Q4 disappointment from Trump rally pressuring precious metals, maintains thesis that $3.7 trillion deficit run-rate will force Fed money printing. Gold miners trading at historic discount to bullion despite highest profit margins ever, creating compelling risk-reward opportunity. |
| Oct 18 2024 | 2024 Q3 | GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOEX, SIL | commodities, Fiscal Dominance, gold, inflation, Miners, monetary policy, Precious Metals, Silver | - | EMA GARP Fund up 12.7% in Q3, 29.1% YTD, positioned for precious metals breakout driven by fiscal dominance. US debt crisis forcing monetary debasement while gold hits $2,650. Mining stocks underperforming metal creates opportunity. Fund heavily weighted silver miners expecting breakout. Everything aligning for exceptional precious metals performance ahead. |
| Jul 18 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ASM | BRICS, commodities, Debt, gold, inflation, Mining, Monetary, Silver | ASM | EMA GARP Fund gained 9.24% in Q2 as silver broke out. Managers see an inflationary 1970s-style decade ahead driven by unsustainable debt requiring massive money printing. BRICS dedollarization and industrial silver demand create perfect storm for precious metals. Portfolio of deeply undervalued mining stocks positioned for significant outperformance as the everything bubble eventually pops. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMAT, AMZN, BABA, CSCO, DBX, DKS, ETSY, FANG, GOOGL, HUM, META, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, RHI, SMCI, TOL, UNH, WSM | AI, China, free cash flow, Quality, technology, valuation, value | - | Distillate Capital warns of NVIDIA's bubble-like valuation while maintaining disciplined value approach. Their portfolios offer record valuation advantages with 6.6% free cash flow yields versus S&P 500's 4.1%. Despite underperforming due to avoiding AI stocks, they emphasize capital preservation and see attractive opportunities in overlooked international markets, particularly Chinese consumer companies trading at depressed valuations. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | - | Fed policy, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy, rates, sovereign debt | - | EMA GARP Fund down -3.87% in 2023 despite gold's strong performance as mining stocks lagged. Fund maintains sovereign debt crisis thesis will force Fed pivot to accommodation. With $16 trillion Treasury issuance needed and recession indicators flashing, mathematical constraints demand monetary easing. Junior miners at 70% NAV discounts position for outsized gains when Fed pivots to support overleveraged system. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | LGC.V | Fed policy, Fiscal, gold, inflation, Mining, Stagflation | LGC.V | EMA argues the US fiscal doom loop with $970B annual interest expense will force Fed abandonment of inflation fighting for monetary accommodation. Portfolio concentrated in gold miners including Lavras Gold discovery success. Expects gold to break $2,100 reaching $2,500-$3,000 with explosive miner performance when mathematical inevitability of monetary expansion occurs. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | banks, Bitcoin, Deficit, Fed, gold, inflation, Mining, Silver | - | Fund down 17% in Q2 as precious metals lagged AI rally, but manager sees unsustainable US fiscal deficits forcing Fed pivot to money printing. Gold approaching all-time highs, silver facing massive supply deficit, Bitcoin gaining institutional adoption. Portfolio overweight junior miners at extreme valuations, positioned for explosive outperformance when metals break higher. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | SIVB | Banking, Credit Crisis, Currency, Fed policy, gold, inflation, monetary policy, Recession | - | Fed has lost control as banking crisis exposes $600 billion in unrealized losses and unsustainable debt dynamics. Silicon Valley Bank failure signals systemic stress that will force monetary policy reversal within 6-18 months. Gold mining stocks are silly cheap at pound the table moment with 3-4x upside potential as gold heads to $3,000-$4,000 per ounce. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
GoldGold is replacing US Treasury Bonds as the global reserve asset as financial war escalates between the West and Russia/China/Iran. Far East demand remains robust while Western investors are selling. Gold prices remain too low relative to the monetary base, fiscal debt, and S&P 500. The 1H 2026 correction is viewed as a back-test to the Q4 2025 breakout, with higher prices expected soon. |
Gold Reserve Asset Monetary Base Central Banks Financial War |
SilverSilver supply deficits persist and are poised to deepen due to high demand from monetary properties and industrial uses including solar, AI, and EV cars. Technical charts show a cup and handle pattern with a back-test to the $50 breakout point. Silver is expected to breakout to $200-$300 per ounce once the bull market resumes. |
Silver Supply Deficit Industrial Demand Solar Technical Breakout | |
Gold MinersGold and silver miners are way too cheap at present bullion prices with robust earnings outlook given substantial operating leverage. Industry profitability is as good as it has been at any point in the last 25 years. Miners like Aris and Avino offer massive asymmetry with potential for multi-bagger returns. Sentiment indicators show extreme oversold conditions historically associated with large upward moves. |
Gold Miners Operating Leverage Valuation AISC Asymmetry | |
AIAI capex spending by hyperscalers is driving growth and earnings, accounting for half of current US GDP growth. However, the AI bubble echoes 1999 zaniness with extreme valuations. Hyperscalers are burning all cash flow and taking on leverage to fund capex. The manager views this as a bubble with significant risks despite acknowledging AI's productivity benefits. |
AI Capex Hyperscalers Bubble Productivity | |
InflationThe US is effectively bankrupt and will have to inflate massively or the debt will consume the country. The Trump Administration's run it hot strategy coupled with large deficits will be highly inflationary, similar to the WWII period when cumulative price increases reached 70%. Yield curve control and money printing are viewed as inevitable solutions, making sound money assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin major beneficiaries. |
Inflation Monetary Debasement Yield Curve Control Money Printing Fiscal Deficit | |
US DebtUS Federal debt has reached 123% of GDP with annual deficits of 5-6% that are unsustainable. The US Government is effectively bankrupt with $39.4 Trillion in federal debt plus $120 Trillion in off-balance sheet entitlements. Interest expense of $1.3 Trillion per year creates a doom loop where higher rates worsen the deficit. The only way out is through severe inflation or monetary reset. |
US Debt Deficit Bankruptcy Entitlements Doom Loop | |
ETFsPassive ETF investing has surpassed active investing and ignores business valuation by indiscriminately buying index baskets even when 51% of names trade above 10x sales. Platform trend-following vehicles like Citadel control 25% of US equity volume and set trends. This creates concentration risk and fragility, particularly problematic when stocks decline. |
ETFs Passive Investing Trend Following Concentration Risk Market Structure | |
Private CreditPrivate credit vehicles face mounting risks with non-accruals quadrupling and redemptions growing. Approximately 25% of private credit is invested in software businesses facing AI disruption risk. Leverage and industry concentration create echoes of 2008 where forced selling by one vehicle can create a death spiral. Asset mark-to-market issues are emerging as funds gate withdrawals. |
Private Credit Non-Accruals Leverage Redemptions Death Spiral | |
| 2026 Q1 |
GoldManager views gold as in early innings of a secular bull market driven by central bank demand and monetary debasement. Gold remains historically cheap versus S&P 500 at 68% ratio compared to 150% in 2012. Central banks continue accumulating gold as reserve asset amid dollar system breakdown. |
Central Banks Monetary Reserves Debasement Secular |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks have lagged bullion but are positioned for outperformance with 70% profit margins at current gold prices. Manager expects miners to catch up as they represent streams of gold and could become central banks if monetary system returns to gold standard. |
Mining Margins Outperformance Leverage Valuation | |
SilverSilver remains supremely cheap versus S&P 500 at only one-third of 2011 levels. Solar demand in Europe and Asia strengthening due to higher oil and gas prices from the war. Silver miners have never been cheaper relative to the metal despite 70%+ margins. |
Solar Industrial Cheap Demand Margins | |
InflationManager expects next wave of inflation to reach double digits, driven by war costs, deficit spending, and monetary debasement. Current environment resembles 1970s stagflation with inflation accelerating while growth rolls over. Wars are historically highly inflationary. |
Stagflation War Deficit Monetary Historical | |
Defense SpendingPentagon budget nearly doubling to $1.5 trillion as warfare technology changes reveal US military vulnerabilities. $30,000 drones subduing $100 million fighter jets shows need for massive retooling and increased defense expenditures. |
Military Technology Budget Retooling Vulnerability | |
CryptoBitcoin positioned as non-counterparty money that cannot be sanctioned, with Iran demanding Bitcoin payments for oil transit fees. Bitcoin has deleveraged significantly and fear index signals buy opportunity. Expected to catch up to gold performance. |
Bitcoin Sanctions Deleveraging Iran Sound Money | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure plays dominated 2025 returns, with 65% of Russell 2000's return coming from AI infrastructure. The manager views this as a concentrated, singular bet on CAPEX spending by five companies building data centers. Questions the sustainability of this theme given its concentration and speculative nature. |
Infrastructure Data Centers CAPEX Concentration |
Small CapsSmall cap performance was dominated by AI infrastructure plays and speculative unprofitable companies in 2025. The manager notes extreme bifurcation between unprofitable stocks and quality stocks, with quality businesses trading at historically cheap multiples despite the overall market concentration. |
Russell 2000 Quality Valuation Bifurcation | |
ValueValuation disparities between winners and losers have reached historic extremes. Quality businesses trade at historically cheap multiples while the market has become as concentrated as ever. The manager sees this as creating significant opportunities for value-oriented investors. |
Quality Multiples Disparity Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold prices have increased relentlessly to over $4,200 per ounce, driven by sovereign debt crisis and monetary debasement. The manager believes gold is still deeply undervalued with potential to reach $8,000-$30,000 per ounce based on historical monetary base coverage ratios and global fiat currency backing calculations. |
Gold Monetary Base Debasement Sovereign Debt Central Banks |
Gold MinersGold and silver mining stocks are the best performing equities of 2025, with the fund's focus on junior miners providing significant operating leverage to higher gold prices. Many miners still trade at attractive valuations of 5-8x cash flow versus MAG7 at 48.5x, with substantial production growth potential. |
Gold Miners Junior Miners Operating Leverage Cash Flow Production Growth | |
SilverSilver has reached record highs near $53 per ounce with a major squeeze on physical inventory. The solar industry demand combined with silver being pulled along by gold has created critically low free float levels in London, with borrowing costs skyrocketing higher than 1980 Hunt brothers squeeze levels. |
Silver Physical Squeeze Solar Demand Inventory Hunt Brothers | |
InflationThe manager believes we are in an increasingly inflationary world driven by fiscal and monetary policies, with the US government behaving like an emerging market country. Peak deflation occurred in March 2020, and current policies will lead to credit expansion and surge in inflation. |
Inflation Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Emerging Market Credit Expansion | |
Private CreditThe private credit market has grown to over $1.7 trillion with concerning lending standards similar to 2008 housing crisis techniques. Recent bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group suggest potential systemic distress and overleveraging in this sector. |
Private Credit Lending Standards Bankruptcy Overleveraging Systemic Risk | |
CryptoBitcoin has been relatively quiet but remains digital gold with scarcity that will enable outperformance. The manager expects Bitcoin to follow gold's lead with a few months lag, moving faster and further, and has been tactically increasing exposure through stocks and call spreads. |
Bitcoin Digital Gold Scarcity Correlation Tactical Exposure | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GoldGold is in a clear bull market, up 61% in just over a year to $3,350. The manager believes we are only in the third or fourth inning of this bull market, with potential for $5,000 to $10,000 gold depending on future monetary debasement. Global investors and central banks are accumulating gold as they anticipate increasing monetary debasement given current government structures. |
Gold Bull Market Monetary Debasement Central Banks Sound Money |
SilverSilver broke through the critical $35 ceiling that had been in place since 2012 and is now catching up to gold's performance. The manager expects silver to outperform gold on a percentage basis, with potential to reach $60-70 per ounce or higher. The fund is heavily invested in silver miners which should benefit from this outperformance. |
Silver Silver Miners Outperformance Breakout Precious Metals | |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are finally beginning to catch up to the metal's performance after years of underperformance. As the bull market enters middle innings, miners should exceed the growth in metal prices due to expanding margins and leverage to higher gold prices. The entire global gold mining industry represents only 1% of the US stock market, suggesting significant upside potential. |
Gold Miners Leverage Undervalued Margins Outperformance | |
InflationThe manager sees significant inflation ahead as the only way for the government to grow out of its deficit problem. With the Big Beautiful Bill increasing spending and Trump wanting lower rates, monetary debasement appears increasingly likely. This inflationary environment supports the thesis for precious metals and Bitcoin. |
Inflation Monetary Debasement Deficit Growth Strategy Currency | |
RatesInterest rates are central to the investment thesis, with Trump pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates aggressively. The manager expects a new dovish Fed Chair by May 2026 who will pursue pro-growth inflationary policies. Current interest expense on government debt is problematic and rising, creating pressure for rate cuts. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy Powell Dovish Government Debt | |
CryptoBitcoin broke through $110,000 resistance and is trading at $119,000, responding positively to the Big Beautiful Bill passage. Bitcoin is closely correlated with global M2 liquidity growth and serves as a sound money alternative alongside gold and silver in the current sovereign debt crisis environment. |
Bitcoin Crypto Sound Money Liquidity Sovereign Debt | |
| 2025 Q1 |
GoldGold prices up 60% in last 12 months, breaking through previous barriers and reaching $3,300 per ounce. Historical ratio analysis suggests gold could appreciate 4x to $12,000 per ounce to match 1980 levels relative to M2 money supply. Central banks and investors buying physical gold aggressively amid sovereign debt crisis concerns. |
Gold Central Banks Physical Gold M2 Sovereign Debt |
Gold MinersGold mining shares significantly underperforming gold bullion despite record profit margins of 56% with gold at $3,300 and average mining costs at $1,451 per ounce. Miners trading at 5-8x cash flow versus 12-20x in previous bull market. Gap expected to close as analysts recognize sustainability of gold price moves. |
Gold Miners Cash Flow Profit Margins Undervaluation Mining Costs | |
TariffsTrump Administration's aggressive tariff plans triggered market selloff and Everything Bubble burst. Tariffs represent bold attempt to reverse 50 years of globalization and reduce China reliance, but implemented in fragile, overleveraged market environment. 90-day suspension enacted after bond market volatility. |
Tariffs Trade Policy China Manufacturing Globalization | |
Fiscal DominanceFederal deficit running at $2.6T annualized rate despite DOGE cuts of only $100B per year. Spending growing 10% annually while tax revenues grow 3%. Deficit at 7% of GDP with risk of full-blown debt crisis if economy weakens further. |
Fiscal Dominance Budget Deficit DOGE Debt Crisis GDP | |
DollarUS Dollar depreciated 10% in three months from 109 to 99 on DXY, extremely rare decoupling from Treasury yields. Dollar exodus toward non-counterparty sound money assets like gold. Administration appears to want dollar depreciation to drive exports and manufacturing jobs. |
Dollar DXY Currency Depreciation Sound Money | |
CryptoBitcoin down 12% in quarter, trading in sympathy with tech stocks but expected to follow gold's lead. Nice buying opportunity emerged with gap opening between Bitcoin and gold performance. Bitcoin provides alpha generation alternative to gold miners for younger investors. |
Bitcoin Crypto Tech Stocks Alpha Sound Money | |
| 2024 Q4 |
GoldGold broke out from three-year ceiling to $2,650 per ounce, driven by fiscal dominance, central bank buying, and BRICS countries settling trade imbalances in gold. The fund sees almost perfect storm conditions for gold performance with weakening economy, credit bubble collapse, and monetary debasement. |
Gold Central Banks BRICS Monetary Debasement Fiscal Dominance |
Gold MinersGold miners remain extremely cheap versus bullion despite gold's 27% gain in 2024. The fund believes this anomaly will correct as miners have highest profit margins in history at current gold prices. Historical rule suggests miners should multiply gold returns by 3x. |
Gold Miners Operating Leverage Cash Flow Valuation Profit Margins | |
SilverSilver demand outstripping supply due to growth in solar and electric vehicles. Production declining in major producing countries while silver sits at potential technical breakout point. Fund expects explosive upside move toward $50 per ounce. |
Silver Solar Electric Vehicles Supply Deficit Technical Breakout | |
CryptoBitcoin rallied 121% in 2024 driven by ETF launches, global money supply growth, and Trump's crypto policies. Fund holds Microstrategy as Bitcoin proxy, viewing it as leading Bitcoin financial services company benefiting from financial engineering strategy. |
Bitcoin ETFs Trump Microstrategy Financial Engineering | |
InflationFund expects inflation reappearance based on agricultural commodity price growth of 28% in 2024, labor wage increases well above Fed target, and global money supply acceleration. Recent CPI data shows uptick from 2.4% to 2.9%. |
Inflation Agricultural Commodities Labor Costs Money Supply CPI | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GoldGold broke out from three-year ceiling to $2,650, up 28% in six months. Driven by fiscal dominance, central bank buying, BRICS demand, and inflation protection needs. Fund believes gold will reach unimaginable prices as sovereign debt crisis becomes understood. |
Gold Bullion Central Banks Inflation Monetary |
Gold MinersMining stocks seriously underperforming gold metal despite 28% gold price gains. Analysts projecting lower future gold prices creating margin compression fears. Fund expects miners to outperform when analyst forecasts prove wrong. |
Miners HUI GDXJ Leverage Margins | |
SilverSilver expected to break out of price channel like gold did. Strong industrial demand from solar consuming 23% of supply. Silver miners offer enormous operating leverage with prices above $40-60 per ounce. |
Silver Solar Industrial Supply Leverage | |
InflationConsumer inflation expectations near 7% despite Fed claims of 2% target. Monetary debasement mathematically required given fiscal dominance. Gold performing as inflation protection asset. |
Inflation Debasement Consumer Expectations Protection | |
| 2024 Q2 |
GoldBRICS countries are increasingly settling trade in gold as they move away from the US dollar. Central banks globally are buying gold aggressively. Gold demand is huge in Asia and the Middle East while Western allocations remain very low. Gold is undervalued relative to money supply at near 80-year lows. |
Gold BRICS Central Banks Monetary Reserve Currency |
SilverSilver broke out in Q2 and may be the tightest supply/demand commodity globally over the next few years. Massive demand from solar panels and electric vehicles is driving consumption while supply remains constrained. Physical silver drawdowns from exchanges have spiked as producers fear shortages. |
Silver Solar Electric Vehicles Supply Deficit Industrial Demand | |
Gold MinersGold and silver mining stocks remain deeply undervalued relative to historical metrics despite recent bounces. A decade of capital starvation has led to declining production prospects. Mining stocks are trading at silly cheap valuations with significant upside potential as the precious metals bull market develops. |
Gold Miners Silver Miners Valuation Production Capital Starvation | |
InflationThe manager believes this decade will resemble the 1970s with recurring waves of inflation. Commodity prices are starting to move higher again and inflation is tightly correlated with commodities. Wage growth above 4% makes it difficult for the Fed to reach their 2% inflation target. |
Inflation Commodities Wages 1970s Stagflation | |
DebtThe US government is in a debt doom loop with large and growing deficits. Interest costs are consuming over 30% of government revenue. In the next recession, deficits could reach $4-6 trillion annually. The government will be forced to print massive amounts of money to service this debt. |
Government Debt Deficits Interest Costs Fiscal Crisis Money Printing | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AINVIDIA has become the dominant AI beneficiary with market cap rising to $2.5 trillion from $350 billion. The manager draws parallels to Cisco during the tech bubble, noting similar valuations and warning of downside risks if AI expectations are not met. They emphasize the difficulty of predicting long-term winners in transformative technologies. |
NVIDIA Semiconductors Valuation Bubble Growth |
ValueThe manager's investment process emphasizes capital preservation and margin of safety rather than paying high prices for growth expectations. They prefer companies where valuation and quality limit downside with discounted valuations leaving room for upside surprises. Their portfolios offer significantly higher free cash flow yields than benchmarks. |
Free Cash Flow Margin of Safety Quality Valuation | |
ChinaChinese stocks offer attractive valuations despite economic concerns. The strategy focuses on consumer-oriented companies like Alibaba and JD.com that benefit from China's transition toward household consumption rather than construction. These companies trade at extremely depressed valuations with strong cash positions. |
Consumption E-commerce Valuation Cash | |
| 2023 Q4 |
GoldGold recently attained a new all-time high price of $2,077 per ounce. The fund believes they are on the cusp of entering the third major gold cycle of the post-1971 era. Gold has achieved this despite being widely unknown and unloved, with 71% of Investment Advisors having only 0-1% exposure to Gold. |
Gold Precious Metals Sound Money Inflation Hedge Central Banks |
Gold MinersJunior Miners are trading at a 70% discount to their Net Asset Value. Historically, Fed pivots lead to outsized gains in gold/silver miner equities. The discount on the Junior Miners is at an historical extreme, but they are beginning to show some signs of life on a technical basis. |
Gold Miners Junior Miners Mining Equities Net Asset Value Undervaluation | |
InflationPCE and CPI inflation have decelerated, giving the Fed a chance to pause. However, deflation would cause this levered system to collapse. The Fed will stimulate upon any slowdown which will create inflation waves like the 1970s. The fund believes we have left the deflationary years of 1980 to 2020 behind. |
Inflation PCE CPI Monetary Policy Deflation | |
RatesThe US 10 Year Treasury Bond yield rose quickly to 5.00%, causing stocks to decline 11%. The Fed quickly began to turn dovish and will see them take action with QT ending then rate cuts. The Fed Chair stated they will not wait for PCE to hit 2% before beginning to cut interest rates. |
Interest Rates Treasury Yields Fed Policy Rate Cuts Monetary Accommodation | |
Credit StressBankruptcy filings, credit delinquencies and regional bank losses are growing. Chapter 11 Bankruptcy filings appear to have accelerated in the second half of 2023. Loan delinquencies are turning up in credit card and auto loans. Regional banks have been protected by the Fed via the BTFP program. |
Credit Stress Bankruptcies Delinquencies Regional Banks BTFP | |
CryptoBitcoin rallied 61% in Q4 post the Fed's dovish comments. Gold and Bitcoin got the memo about monetary chaos, with Bitcoin up 157% for the full year. The fund views Bitcoin as one of the sound money alternatives alongside gold. |
Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Sound Money Digital Assets Monetary Debasement | |
| 2023 Q3 |
GoldGold is hanging in there despite aggressive Fed tightening and is close to breaking its all-time high. Central banks continue buying gold while selling US Treasuries. The manager expects gold to reach $2,500 then $3,000 when it breaks through $2,100. |
Gold Central Banks Monetary Debasement Reserve Asset |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks have been left for dead despite gold's resilience. The manager believes Wall Street's $1,750 five-year gold price estimate is wrong and expects much higher prices, which will drive explosive performance in gold miners when the market turns. |
Gold Miners Valuation Margins Bull Market | |
InflationThe manager sees evidence of stagflation with slowing economy, falling stocks and bonds, but rising commodity prices. They believe persistent inflation will force the Fed to abandon its inflation fighter stance and return to monetary accommodation. |
Stagflation Commodity Inflation Monetary Policy Fed Policy | |
Credit StressUS banks have $558 billion in unrealized losses on securities with Bank of America showing $130 billion in unrealized losses. The manager expects more bank failures as auto and commercial real estate loans mature over the next 18 months. |
Bank Losses Commercial Real Estate Credit Crisis Silicon Valley Bank | |
| 2023 Q2 |
GoldGold is approaching all-time highs despite Fed hawkishness and remains cheap on many metrics. The manager expects gold to break through $2,050 per ounce and trade between $2,500-$3,000, potentially reaching $5,000-$10,000 in this bull market cycle. |
Gold Bullion Monetary Inflation Currency |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are trading at extreme discounts to net asset values with sentiment extremely low. The manager views them as non-expiring options on gold prices with significant operating leverage when gold breaks higher. |
Gold Miners Mining Leverage Valuation Sentiment | |
SilverSilver is projected to be the most undersupplied metal over the next 6 years, driven primarily by solar panel demand. The gap between gold and silver prices is at 50+ year extremes, creating asymmetric upside opportunity. |
Silver Solar Supply Demand Industrial | |
CryptoBitcoin has been the best performing asset in 2023, up 83%. The market is beginning to understand the difference between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with institutional adoption accelerating through ETF applications. |
Bitcoin Crypto Digital Institutional ETF | |
InflationDespite recent CPI moderation, the manager believes the Fed will be forced to return to money printing due to unsustainable fiscal deficits and debt dynamics, ultimately driving inflation and benefiting sound money alternatives. |
Inflation CPI Monetary Deficit Printing | |
Credit StressCredit card balances are rising, loan delinquencies are growing, and an academic study estimates 56.5% of all banks have negative net worth when assets are properly marked. Commercial real estate issues remain ahead for non-GSIB banks. |
Credit Banks Delinquencies Commercial Real Estate | |
| 2023 Q1 |
GoldManager believes gold is poised for aggressive price appreciation to $3,000-$4,000 per ounce due to Fed monetary policy failures and currency debasement. Gold is breaking out technically versus stocks and bonds as foreign central banks buy gold instead of US Treasuries. |
Gold Monetary Policy Currency Central Banks Breakout |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks are described as silly cheap at a pound the table moment. The HUI Gold Miners index corresponds to only an $800 gold price from 2008 despite gold trading much higher. Manager expects 3-4x upside over next 3+ years with potential for stocks to double just to reach fair value. |
Gold Miners Valuation HUI Index Leverage Upside | |
Credit StressBanking sector faces systemic issues with $600 billion of unrealized losses from long duration assets funded by short duration deposits. Silicon Valley Bank failure demonstrates vulnerability of modern banking system to rapid deposit withdrawals via mobile banking. |
Banking Credit Duration Risk Deposits Systemic Risk |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Fund Letters | Equity Management Associates | ARIS | Aris Mining | Gold | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Colombia, EBITDA multiple, Emerging Producer, Gold, Guyana, Mining, operating leverage, Precious Metals, production growth, Value | Login |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Fund Letters | Equity Management Associates | ASM | Avino Silver and Gold | Other Precious Metals & Mining | Silver | Bull | - | Copper Credits, growth, Mexico, Mid-tier Producer, Mining, operating leverage, Precious Metals, Price Optionality, production growth, Silver | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Lawrence W. Lepard | AUMBF | 1911 Gold Corporation | Materials | Gold | Bull | TSX | CapEx, development, Feasibility, Gold, leverage, Restart, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Lawrence W. Lepard | ASM CN | Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | Materials | Precious Metals & Minerals | Bull | TSX | growth, leverage, Margins, Mining, Production, Silver, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Equity Management Associates | ASM | Avino Silver and Gold | Materials | Precious Metals & Minerals | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, commodity, expansion, Mexico, Mining, Precious Metals, production growth, Silver, undervalued, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Equity Management Associates | LGC.V | Lavras Gold Corp. | Materials | Gold | Bull | TSX Venture Exchange | Alkaline, Brazil, Caldera, Discovery, Drilling, Equity, Exploration, Gold, Mining, Resource, Volcanic | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| ARIS | Aris is an emerging mid-tier producer with two operating mines in Colombia (Marmato and Segovia) and two large development projects, one in Colombia and one in Guyana. In 2025, they produced 257,000 ounces of gold. Their average selling cost was $3,526/ounce and their average mining cost (AISC) was $1,705/ounce. So, their gross mine profit was $467 million. In 2026, they have guided production between 300,000 and 350,000 ounces at similar costs. The mid-point of guidance equals a 26% growth in ounces produced. They have plans to increase the production in the existing mines after 2026 and their target is to become a 1 million ounce producer within 5 years. In the Q1 2026, they generated EBITDA of $212 million (a run rate of $800 million per year which is the same as the Bloomberg consensus estimates). So, the Company is trading at only 3.75x EBITDA. This compares favorably to the average EBITDA multiple of the S&P 500 which is currently 17x and even more so compared to the MAG-7 stocks which trade at an average multiple of 28x. If they are able to increase their production and gold prices remain at this level or higher their EBITDA will grow substantially in the next four years. Holding gold prices steady, Bloomberg analysts estimate EBITDA of $1.2 Billion in 2027 and $1.4 Billion in 2028. So, the Company's enterprise value is only 2x estimated EBITDA two years out. We think this stock has a lot of upside. In the best case scenario, Aris would generate $6.8 Billion of EBITDA and have a market value of $68 Billion. That is stock upside of 22x their present market value. Even if gold prices remain flat and they only achieve the Bloomberg consensus EBITDA of $1.4 Billion in 2028, this could lead to a market value of $11.2 Billion if the EBITDA multiple were to expand to 8x. That is a 3.7x upside vs today's value. |
| ASM | Avino Silver and Gold is a mid-tier producer of mostly silver with some gold and copper credits. They operate two mines which share one mill in Mexico's Durango Province, a generally safe area free of cartel activity. In calendar 2025, they produced 2.6 million silver equivalent ounces at an average cost (AISC) of $23.75/ounce. With an average silver selling price of $44.70 per ounce during the year their average margin was $20.95/ounce. So, at the mine operating level they had contribution of $54 million. After SG&A, EBITDA for 2025 was $28.5 million. However silver prices today ($60/ounce) are substantially above last year's average price and in Q1 of 2026 they had EBITDA of $20 million. Bloomberg analyst's consensus for 2026 EBITDA is $80 million. So, the Company is trading at 12.5x EBITDA. The Company is projecting that their silver equivalent ounce production will grow to 2.8 million this year, 2026, 4.0 million in 2027, 6.7 million in 2028 and 8.0 million in 2029. Furthermore, the price of silver is now $60/ounce but in the most recent run up it hit $120/ounce. We believe that the price of silver is heading to $100 and then ultimately to $200 per ounce over the next few years. If for example silver goes back to its $120 high later this year it would mean their average selling price this year could be $80 and at that price, they would have EBITDA of $140 million. Making their present multiple a more reasonable 7.1x. Furthermore, if they execute their growth plans and achieve production of 8.0 million ounces in 2028 and the silver price is $200/ounce they would earn EBITDA of $1.4 Billion in 2028. Their current market capitalization is lower than this. Assuming they maintain an EBITDA multiple of 10, the stock will be a 14x bagger. We strongly believe they will grow production and silver prices will go up. If it only ends up being 2-3x our money in the next few years, we'll take it. |
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