| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
2025 marked a clear rotation from American exceptionalism as international equities outpaced U.S. equities by the widest margin in over a decade, validating Evolve's globally diversified positioning. The firm's thesis centers on three key themes: the return of global diversification as a practical portfolio tool, AI's maturation from hype to show me the money phase, and emerging opportunities in private markets. While AI remains transformative, the $400 billion capex versus $50 billion revenue gap and physical infrastructure constraints are forcing valuation adjustments. Private markets are creating supply-demand imbalances as traditional institutions face over-allocation and liquidity challenges. Evolve is launching a private markets fund in Q1 2026 targeting secondaries, lower-middle market specialists, and real estate opportunities where prices have diverged from replacement costs. The firm maintains its disciplined approach of compounding capital prudently through diversification and selective underwriting, building portfolios designed to endure multiple market cycles rather than chase headlines.
Market leadership rotated in 2025 from narrow consensus positioning to broader, more diversified opportunities, validating the firm's approach of global diversification, measured AI exposure, and patient capital deployment in private markets.
Markets eventually reward what is sensible, even if what's sensible seems unpopular at times. The firm expects continued opportunities in global diversification, measured AI investment, and private market dislocations. Focus remains on building portfolios that can endure many headlines rather than predicting the next one.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, diversification, global, international, opportunity, private markets, real estate, valuation | - | AI remains transformative but markets are shifting from hype to show me the money phase. The industry has spent over $400 billion on capex while producing roughly $50 billion in revenues. Physical constraints including power generation, grid capacity, and data centers are challenging assumptions of frictionless scaling. Private markets are finally offering opportunity as supply and demand balance has shifted. Traditional institutions are over-allocated, distributions have dried up, and scarcity of capital gives patient liquidity providers leverage on price and terms. The firm is launching a private markets fund in Q1 2026. Real estate presents opportunities where price and replacement cost have meaningfully diverged. Commercial real estate market is down approximately 20% since 2022 while construction costs have risen 20-30%. Refinancing cliffs are forcing motivated behavior creating acquisition opportunities at deep discounts. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Capital Expenditure, Market Concentration, Mega Caps, Retail Investors | - | Equity resilience in Q3 masked extreme market Concentration, with gains disproportionately driven by a handful of AI-linked mega-cap stocks. Massive capital expenditures, circular funding dynamics within the AI ecosystem, and uncertain monetization raise risks that expectations may be ahead of realized returns. The letter emphasizes disciplined participation in AI while highlighting overlooked segments of the market that could benefit if leadership broadens. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Artificial Intelligence, asset allocation, Currency, Global Equities, private markets | - | The letter stresses the benefits of international diversification amid U.S. concentration risk and currency shifts, noting stronger relative performance from non-U.S. equities. The maturation of AI from narrative to monetization, combined with selective private market opportunities, supports broader allocation beyond mega-cap growth. The outlook favors balanced exposure across geographies and asset classes to manage valuation dispersion and macro uncertainty. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Alternatives, Bonds, International Equities, Trade Policy, US Dollar | - | Q1 2025 was defined by a structural shift in global trade policy, as sweeping US Tariffs triggered equity selloffs, wider credit spreads, and a spike in policy uncertainty. Markets began repricing growth, inflation, and supply chain risk, with US equities underperforming while international markets and defensive assets provided relative resilience. The environment reinforced the value of Diversification across geographies, asset classes, and alternatives amid regime change. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | diversification, inflation, Supply Chains, tariffs, trade war | - | Tariff escalation and shifting U.S. trade policy marked a structural inflection in global economic expectations, triggering equity repricing and volatility. The Liberation Day announcement introduced broad-based tariffs, raising concerns about supply chains, corporate margins, and retaliatory responses. Investors are encouraged to reassess diversification, inflation sensitivity, and geopolitical risk in portfolio construction. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | AI, Capital Expenditure, Data centers, Mega Caps, productivity | - | Artificial Intelligence is reshaping market leadership, with equity returns increasingly concentrated in a small group of mega-cap technology firms benefiting from AI-related capital expenditure and infrastructure buildout. The newsletter highlights both the transformative potential of AI and the risk of over-exuberance, noting that large-scale data center investment and chip demand have outpaced clear monetization pathways. Investors must balance structural growth opportunities with valuation discipline as expectations run ahead of realized productivity gains. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Bonds, diversification, International Equities, Magnificent 7, Recession | - | The letter questions whether markets are underpricing recession risk while equity indices trade at elevated multiples, particularly within concentrated mega-cap leadership. Drawing parallels to the Nifty Fifty era, the manager argues that enthusiasm around the Magnificent 7 risks overvaluation, while more attractively priced opportunities exist in the average stock and international markets. Fixed income has regained relevance with yields near 6% in high-quality segments such as agency mortgage-backed securities, offering diversification and recession hedging benefits. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Currency, Global Equities, private markets, real estate | - | The letter emphasizes the renewed importance of global diversification after international equities outperformed U.S. markets by the widest margin in over a decade, aided by dollar weakness and valuation dispersion. The firm argues that concentration risk in U.S. mega-cap technology had become excessive and that broader geographic exposure enhances portfolio resilience. Alongside this rotation, the team highlights a maturation of the AI narrative from speculative enthusiasm to monetization scrutiny and identifies emerging opportunities in private markets, particularly secondaries, lower-middle-market specialists, and discounted real estate assets. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | - | Covenant-Lite Loans, Fund Leverage, Illiquidity Premium, private credit, private equity | - | The letter warns that private equity and private credit may mask risk through opaque valuations and stale marks, creating an illusion of stability versus public markets. Secondary or continuation funds can misalign incentives by recycling assets to extend fee streams, while covenant-lite lending and fund-level leverage heighten default and liquidity risks in a higher-rate regime. The opportunity set persists, but manager selection and underwriting discipline are paramount as capital saturation pressures returns. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Illiquidity, Leverage, private credit, private equity, Valuations | - | The rapid democratization of private markets has shifted the illiquidity premium toward an illiquidity discount, with opaque valuations and continuation vehicles raising structural incentive concerns. Stale marks, secondary fund transactions, and fee structures may distort reported returns and understate true volatility, particularly in a higher-rate regime. Elevated leverage in private equity-backed companies and covenant-lite private credit structures create asymmetric downside risk as refinancing costs rise. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Generative AI, GPUs, Nvidia, semiconductors, valuation | - | The surge in Artificial Intelligence enthusiasm has driven a narrow equity rally, with AI-linked stocks experiencing multiple expansion far exceeding earnings growth. Nvidias dominant position in GPUs and AI networking infrastructure places it at the center of the theme, yet its valuation embeds highly optimistic long-term growth assumptions (pp. 23). History suggests that transformative industry trends do not guarantee attractive investment outcomes when entry valuations are extreme. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Earnings Yield, momentum, Quality, shareholder yield, value | - | The letter emphasizes the persistent failure of market forecasting and argues that disciplined factor-based investing is a more reliable path to long-term returns. Historical data shows forecasters average error materially exceeds the markets long-term return, reinforcing the case for systematic exposure to Value, Momentum, and Quality. By integrating these complementary Factors, the portfolio seeks to exploit behavioral mispricings while improving diversification and reducing volatility of excess returns. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Private CreditThe space has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Lending Risk | |
Real EstateFund holds significant positions in Australian real estate companies including Lendlease, Lifestyle Communities, and Ingenia Communities. These companies are executing simplification strategies, capital recycling, and benefiting from structural tailwinds including aging population and housing undersupply. The fund sees meaningful upside through improved capital allocation and strategic execution. |
Development Capital Recycling Buybacks NTA Discount Demographics | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
ConcentrationFive companies now represent roughly 30% of the S&P 500's market cap. The top 10 exceed 40%—the highest concentration in 50 years. Nearly $340 billion flowed into U.S. deals, yet it was packed into the fewest deals of the decade, with nearly half the capital concentrated in a few dozen deals over $500 million. |
Market Capital Risk Deals Venture | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
| 2025 Q1 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
Tariffs |
||
| 2024 Q4 |
Trade |
|
| 2024 Q3 |
ArtificialIntelligence |
|
| 2024 Q2 |
ValuationAI-related companies continue to command premium valuations while other sectors remain reasonably priced. This valuation divide continues to guide investment activity, with the fund remaining wary of companies trading at exceedingly high valuations that imply exceptional multi-year earnings growth. |
Premium Divide Discipline Stretched Reasonable |
| 2024 Q1 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
| 2023 Q4 |
CreditFund focuses on elevated carry in high yield credit markets with spreads remaining range bound below 300 basis points. Manager believes high yield credit is fundamentally strong but valuations are tight, particularly in higher quality BBs. Strategy emphasizes sourcing positions with higher income levels given limited price appreciation opportunities. |
High Yield Credit Spreads Carry Investment Grade |
Governance |
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PrivateMarkets |
||
| 2023 Q3 |
CreditFund focuses on elevated carry in high yield credit markets with spreads remaining range bound below 300 basis points. Manager believes high yield credit is fundamentally strong but valuations are tight, particularly in higher quality BBs. Strategy emphasizes sourcing positions with higher income levels given limited price appreciation opportunities. |
High Yield Credit Spreads Carry Investment Grade |
Privates |
||
| 2023 Q2 |
ArtificialIntelligence |
|
| 2023 Q1 |
Factors |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
