| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Evolve Private Wealth argues that the investment environment underpinning three decades of portfolio construction has fundamentally changed, requiring new approaches to asset allocation. The post-Cold War order has officially ended according to Western leaders, necessitating higher geopolitical risk premiums than any model built in the last 30 years. The stock-bond correlation is not broken but behaving normally for an inflationary environment, similar to the 1970s when both assets declined simultaneously. Private credit faces a structural prisoner's dilemma where the mismatch between illiquid assets and semi-liquid wrappers creates redemption cascades, evidenced by major firms facing significant unmet redemption requests. The firm positioned for these regime changes by incorporating commodities and trend-following strategies as inflation hedges, which outperformed during Q1 2026 when traditional portfolios failed. They are launching a private markets fund in Q2 2026 to capitalize on dislocations created by private credit dysfunction. The strategy focuses on building resilience across multiple regimes rather than predicting specific outcomes.
The investment environment that shaped three decades of investor assumptions has structurally shifted, requiring portfolios built for a world with higher geopolitical risk premiums, potential inflation regime dynamics, and recognition that some aggressively marketed investment structures carry hidden risks.
The manager expects the structural shifts to persist rather than reverse. The geopolitical transition will take years to resolve, inflation regime dynamics remain active, and private credit dysfunction will continue until fund managers can convince investors that loans are worth stated values. The focus is on building portfolios for multiple regimes rather than predicting specific outcomes.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, Geopolitical Risk, inflation, portfolio construction, private credit, regime change | - | The post-Cold War investment paradigm has ended, requiring portfolios built for higher geopolitical risk, inflation regime dynamics, and private credit structural problems. Traditional 60/40 portfolios failed in Q1 2026 while commodities and trend-following strategies outperformed as designed. Evolve is launching a private markets fund to capitalize on private credit dislocations and secondary market opportunities. |
| Feb 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, diversification, global, international, opportunity, private markets, real estate, valuation | - | Evolve's globally diversified approach paid off as international markets outperformed U.S. equities by the widest margin in over a decade. AI is maturing from hype to fundamentals while private markets offer compelling opportunities. The firm is launching a private markets fund in Q1 2026 to capitalize on current dislocations in secondaries, lower-middle market deals, and distressed real estate. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 000333.SZ, 0005.HK, 002714.SZ, 0700.HK, 0981.HK, 1024.HK, 2899.HK, 300274.SZ, 300750.SZ, 600519.SS, BABA, BIDU | AI, China, Onshore, semiconductors, technology, value | - | The fund underperformed in Q3 by avoiding overvalued AI stocks that drove market gains. The manager views current AI valuations as unsustainable, similar to China's COVID rally peak in 2021. Despite weak macro data, the fund maintains exposure to structural growth themes while trading at attractive valuations relative to its own history. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BRK-B, JPM, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR | AI, Fed policy, growth, healthcare, Mega Cap, tariffs, technology | - | Oak Ridge's growth strategies delivered solid Q2 performance despite tariff volatility, driven by AI leadership in technology and selective healthcare positioning. The firm trimmed winners to manage concentration while maintaining conviction in transformative trends. With markets at 25x earnings amid policy uncertainty, success depends on Fed rate cuts and earnings growth sustaining current valuations. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BABA, BTI, CHTR, CRDA.L, DGE.L, FAST, HILS.L, MCO, MSFT, ORCL, PM, POOL, REL.L, SCHW, SGE.L, SPX.L, TMO, TXN, WSO | Diversified, Funds, Investment Trust, long-term, Private Capital, Public Companies | - | Caledonia delivered 4.4% NAV total return driven by strong Public Companies and Private Capital performance. Permanent capital structure enabled opportunistic deployment during market volatility. Oracle's AI-driven gains were realized profitably. Stonehage Fleming sale at 3.2x cost exemplifies patient capital approach. Significant liquidity of £430m positions firm for future opportunities despite ongoing macro uncertainties. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | diversification, inflation, Supply Chains, tariffs, trade war | - | |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | AI, Capital Expenditure, Data centers, Mega Caps, productivity | - | |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Bonds, diversification, International Equities, Magnificent 7, Recession | - | |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Currency, Global Equities, private markets, real estate | - | |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | ADS.DE, AMT, AMZN, AVGO, DEO, ES, GOOGL, MA, META, MSFT, NESN.SW, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, RKT.L, SAP, TSM, UMG.AS, UNH, YUM | AI, consumer, global, growth, Quality, semiconductors, technology | ADS.DE | Magellan Global Opportunities delivered 3.0% in Q3 2025, benefiting from Alphabet's antitrust victory and AI-driven semiconductor strength. The fund maintains focus on quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages, highlighted by detailed Adidas analysis. Despite AI enthusiasm driving markets higher, the manager remains cautious on full valuations while selectively pursuing individual opportunities. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMT, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, CMG, ES, GOOGL, INTC, MA, MELI, META, MSFT, NESN.SW, NKE, NVDA, NVO, ORCL, SAP, TSM, YUM | AI, Athleisure, global, growth, large cap, Quality, semiconductors, technology | ADS.DE | Global Opportunities Fund lagged in Q3 as speculative growth outperformed, transitioning to proven strategy. AI enthusiasm drives markets higher but appears increasingly speculative with circular OpenAI deals. TSMC and ASML benefited from semiconductor optimism while Chipotle and Novo faced headwinds. Constructive on US economy with rate cuts but cautious on full valuations. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Peer Group, Performance, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | RVK's Q2 2025 peer group analysis shows institutional portfolios delivered positive returns despite initial tariff-driven market volatility. US trade policy negotiations caused sharp equity declines and Treasury dislocations early in the quarter, but markets recovered following a 90-day tariff pause and trade deal progress, with volatility subsequently declining. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | 0700.HK, 2020.HK, ABB, AMZN, APH, AVGO, BABA, GOOGL, KLAC, LRCX, LSEG.L, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, NVO, ORCL, TSMC | AI, China, Cloud, global, growth, innovation, semiconductors, technology |
GOOGL LRCX LSEG.L AVGO|BYD|CRWD|MELI|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|NVO|ORLY|SPOT AVGO 000700.HK |
Guinness Global Innovators underperformed in Q3 2025 despite benefiting from AI-driven tech rally. Fund exited Novo Nordisk amid GLP-1 competition concerns while adding Broadcom and Tencent. Unprecedented AI infrastructure spending by Hyperscalers drives market enthusiasm but raises valuation concerns. Strategy maintains focus on quality growth companies with innovation exposure through equally weighted, thematically diversified approach. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Geopolitical RiskThe post-Cold War order has structurally ended according to Western leaders, creating a new era of great power politics. This shift requires portfolios to price higher geopolitical risk premiums than models built over the past 30 years. The simultaneous renegotiation of rules on trade, energy, reserve currencies, and military alliances creates systemic uncertainty. |
Sanctions Trade Policy Defense Spending Dollar Global |
InflationThe stock-bond correlation is behaving normally given current macroeconomic conditions, not broken as commonly claimed. In inflation-driven shocks, both stocks and bonds decline simultaneously as the 1970s demonstrated. Current conditions mirror that era with political pressure on the Fed, high government debt, and oil supply shocks above $100 per barrel. |
Inflation Rates Oil Commodities Volatility | |
Private CreditPrivate credit funds face a structural prisoner's dilemma where individually rational redemption decisions create collectively harmful outcomes. The mismatch between illiquid assets and semi-liquid wrappers, combined with inflated NAV marks, rewards early movers at the expense of remaining investors. Major firms including Blue Owl, Ares, Apollo, and others face significant unmet redemption requests. |
Private Credit Credit Stress Liquidity BDC | |
CommoditiesCommodities serve as essential portfolio diversifiers during inflationary periods because they are frequently the source of inflation itself. The Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 24.4% and S&P GSCI rose 40% in Q1 2026, while the S&P 500 Energy sector surged 38.3% as oil prices drove transportation and manufacturing costs higher. |
Commodities Oil Energy Transition Inflation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI remains transformative but markets are shifting from hype to show-me phase. The mismatch between $400B capex and $50B revenues raises valuation concerns. Physical constraints like power shortages and build delays challenge frictionless scaling assumptions. |
Artificial Intelligence Capex Monetization Infrastructure Valuations |
Private CreditManager remains cautious on private credit as discounts to NAV and payment-in-kind structures become more prevalent. This validates earlier concerns about inflated valuations in the democratized private markets space. |
Private Markets NAV Payment In Kind Valuations Illiquidity | |
Commercial Real EstateReal estate presents opportunity where price and replacement cost have diverged. Valuations down 20% while construction costs rose 20-30%. Refinancing cliffs create opportunities for patient capital to acquire quality assets below replacement cost. |
Real Estate Replacement Cost Refinancing Construction Costs Patient Capital | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIChina's onshore AI stocks have driven significant market gains but are viewed as significantly overvalued with 70-90% of valuations based on uncertain future cash flows. The manager avoids these names, comparing current valuations to the peak of China's COVID rally in early 2021. |
Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors Technology Valuation Growth |
ChinaThe fund focuses exclusively on China A shares with structural growth themes built on demographic changes, production advances, and technology applications. Weak macro data contrasts with surging equity markets, particularly in onshore segments. |
A Shares Onshore Structural Growth Demographics Technology | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor and technology hardware companies feature prominently in both holdings and market commentary. The fund benefits from positions in Shengyi Technology due to AI server buildout demand while avoiding overvalued chip designers. |
Chips Hardware Manufacturing Supply Chain Technology | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AITechnology has been at the forefront with great excitement over transformative effects of AI, evidenced by sold-out Nvidia Blackwell chips and strong Microsoft Azure results. AI will likely continue to create transformative new opportunities at an unprecedented pace. The market concentration in AI-dominant fields is notable with all but Berkshire and J.P. Morgan among the top 10 S&P 500 constituents being in AI-dominant fields. |
Nvidia Microsoft Azure Blackwell Transformative |
Trade PolicyThe quarter began with panic selloff over triple-digit tariffs threatened on President Trump's Liberation Day. Fed concerns over tariff effects on inflation and interest rates initially caused market stress, though the market began viewing inflationary impact as transitory. Companies have reduced capital investment and hiring while trimming 2025 estimates due to anticipated protectionism policies. |
Tariffs Liberation Day Protectionism Inflation Fed | |
GLP1Healthcare holdings included long-term positions in a leading pharmaceutical company that had soared due to their leading GLP-1 drug and robust pipeline. The company is believed to be poised for future upside revisions due to further advances in weight loss and new drugs for Alzheimer's and cancer. Small-cap portfolios also benefited from a health and wellness company involved in adding GLP-1 drugs to their lineup. |
Weight Loss Pharmaceutical Pipeline Alzheimer's Cancer | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIOracle, Microsoft, and Alibaba Group were strong performers driven by their cloud businesses and AI-related services. Oracle's share price rose sharply following a series of AI-related announcements which led to a significant re-rating of the shares. The company took the opportunity to realize gains from Oracle given the strong AI-driven performance. |
Cloud Software Technology Growth Re-rating |
Private CapitalThe Private Capital pool delivered 7.7% returns over six months, driven primarily by the agreed sale of Stonehage Fleming and good operational performance from AIR-serv. The strategy focuses on cash generative businesses with strong growth potential, typically investing £50m to £150m using low levels of leverage. As a balance sheet investor, they are not constrained by finite fund life, allowing fundamental value creation over medium to long-term. |
Direct Investment Mid-market Value Creation Long-term Leverage | |
DividendsThe board declared an interim dividend of 3.68p per share, reflecting the change in dividend payment profile to 50% of the prior year's total annual dividend. The Income portfolio aims to deliver an initial yield on invested cost of 3.5% with overall dividend from holdings growing ahead of inflation over the longer term. |
Income Yield Progressive Inflation Distribution | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIRenewed enthusiasm in the AI trade has driven markets to fresh highs, with large deals announced by OpenAI with chip and data center partners. However, these deals are circular in nature and heavily dependent on OpenAI monetizing its limited current revenue base, creating increasing risks to the market. |
OpenAI Monetization Chips Data Centers GenAI |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor demand sentiment was lifted by announcements of several OpenAI partnerships with Oracle, Nvidia and Broadcom. These developments have potential to drive incremental demand for AI-related chips and manufacturing capacity, though focus remains on end-market demand dynamics necessary to support capacity plans. |
TSMC Nvidia Broadcom Manufacturing Capacity | |
AthleisureAdidas represents a compelling long-term opportunity as the world's #2 athletic footwear and apparel player. The brand benefits from deep heritage, durable competitive advantages through marketing reach and global distribution networks, with ability to turn global sports tailwinds into sustainable growth despite recent disruptions. |
Adidas Nike Sportswear Brand Equity Distribution | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIRenewed enthusiasm in the AI trade has driven markets to fresh highs, with large deals announced by OpenAI with Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and AMD. However, these deals are somewhat circular in nature and heavily dependent on OpenAI growing and monetising its user base given its limited current revenue. While positive on GenAI potential over the long term, considerable uncertainty remains on the pace and degree of monetisation. |
OpenAI Monetisation Chips Data Centers Partnerships |
SemiconductorsTSMC benefited from improved semiconductor demand sentiment due to announcements of several OpenAI partnerships with Oracle, Nvidia and Broadcom. These were positive developments in their potential to drive incremental demand for AI-related chips and manufacturing capacity. However, focus remains on end-market demand dynamics necessary to support these capacity plans, particularly given single-customer concentration. |
TSMC Manufacturing Capacity Demand OpenAI | |
AthleisureAdidas represents a compelling long-term opportunity as a brand with deep heritage and durable competitive advantages. The company has demonstrated resilience through challenging periods and has regained strong momentum under new leadership. The blending of sports and lifestyle has broadened the addressable market as athletic apparel and footwear have become everyday wear. |
Adidas Brand Heritage Sportswear Lifestyle | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIAI infrastructure expenditure has accelerated at unprecedented pace, with Hyperscalers committing vast sums to expand data centers and GPU clusters. Collective Hyperscaler capex projected to exceed $500bn by 2027, supplemented by $300bn in R&D. The surge in AI capital expenditure has sparked debate about how quickly such heavy spending can translate into tangible returns. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Infrastructure Capex |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor equipment companies like Lam Research delivered robust returns, with record gross margins driven by favorable product mix and strong demand from China. Management spoke to increasing complexity and intensity in etch and deposition processes for AI chips, with companies showcasing new products ahead of peers in innovation. |
Semi Equipment Memory Foundries China Innovation | |
CloudHyperscalers are intensifying investment programs with multiyear partnerships and significant new capacity buildouts. Oracle entered partnership with OpenAI entailing significant new capacity buildouts. Companies are building AI-optimized data centers to handle intense computing needs for model training, inference, and generative AI features. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Capex AI Computing | |
ChinaChinese equities staged notable rally, outperforming most major global equity markets as policy momentum, easing US-China trade tensions, and renewed AI optimism provided tailwinds. Beijing coordinated stimulus with rate cuts and targeted credit easing. Gains were broad-based, led by AI and semiconductor companies benefiting from renewed investor confidence. |
Policy Trade Stimulus AI Semiconductors |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Android, antitrust, Chrome, Cloud computing, digital advertising, search engine, YouTube | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Advanced Packaging, AI chips, China Demand, Etch Processes, High-Bandwidth Memory, NAND flash, semiconductor equipment, Wafer Fabrication | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | LSEG.L | London Stock Exchange Group plc | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Counter-cyclical, defensive business, EBITDA margin, Exchange, financial data, FX Headwinds, market data, Share Buyback | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | AVGO|BYD|CRWD|MELI|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|NVO|ORLY|SPOT | Novo Nordisk A/S | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bear | NASDAQ | CEO transition, Compounded Drugs, diabetes treatment, GLP-1, Market Slowdown, Pharmaceutical Competition, Profit Warning, semaglutide | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, AI workloads, Asic, custom chips, data center, Enterprise software, high margins, VMware Acquisition | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | 000700.HK | Tencent Holdings Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Chinese Internet, Cloud computing, digital payments, Gaming, network effects, social media, user monetization, WeChat | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | ADS.DE | Adidas AG | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | XETRA | athleisure, athletic apparel, Brand Equity, Consumer Discretionary, Football, Germany, Global Sports, Marketing, Sportswear, turnaround | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Evolve Private Wealth | ADS.DE | Adidas AG | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | XETRA | athleisure, athletic apparel, Brand Equity, Consumer Discretionary, Distribution Networks, Economic Moats, Football, Footwear, Germany, Global Sports, Marketing, Sportswear, turnaround | Login |
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