Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.7% | 5.4% | 35.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 35.5% | 11.2% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.7% | 5.4% | 35.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 35.5% | 11.2% |
Fawkes Capital delivered strong December performance of 3.5%, driven primarily by Wasion Holdings as markets recognized the company's global electrical products earnings power. The fund maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, believing the US economy will remain solid through 2026 despite cost-of-living pressures on lower-income households. AI infrastructure investment represents a major catalyst, with potential $400 billion deployment in 2026 equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. Unlike the dotcom bubble, AI infrastructure must scale dynamically with real demand, though monetization remains challenging with only 5% of ChatGPT users paying. The semiconductor cycle presents compelling opportunities as chip shortages drive equipment demand, with memory prices tripling and foundries increasing capex significantly. The fund recently initiated a position in Metasurface Technologies, a precision semiconductor equipment component supplier trading at attractive 6-7x earnings with substantial cash holdings. While maintaining selective positions in attractive risk-reward opportunities, the fund has proactively reduced equity exposure amid increased January market volatility.
Selective positioning in technology infrastructure beneficiaries, particularly semiconductor equipment suppliers, while maintaining cautious optimism on US economic resilience despite reducing overall equity exposure amid increased market volatility.
Cautiously optimistic with continued belief that the US economy will remain on solid footing through 2026, though recent concerns have led to trimming some equity exposure while maintaining selective positions where risk-reward remains attractive.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 000660.KS, 0300.HK, AMAT, AMD, INTC, LRCX, TSM | AI, Asia, Bubble, Equipment, infrastructure, semiconductors, technology | 8637 HK | AI infrastructure investment could reach $400 billion in 2026, equivalent to 1.5% of US GDP, potentially doubling economic growth. Unlike the dotcom bubble, AI infrastructure must scale dynamically with usage as demand is real and immediate. However, AI remains largely uneconomic with only 5% of ChatGPT users paying for services. Global chip shortage driven by accelerating AI demand has caused memory chip prices to triple in 2025. Intel and AMD are flagging logic chip supply constraints while leading foundries like TSMC and SK Hynix announced double-digit capex increases, pointing to significant equipment demand. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Big tech, Energy Infrastructure, Power Shortage, semiconductors |
GOOGL LBRT GOOGL FELIX AU LBRT BE ARGN |
Fawkes Capital discusses the ongoing AI-driven bubble, arguing that speculative excesses are concentrated in small caps while Big Tech capex remains justified by real demand. The fund anticipates continued expansion in AI infrastructure spending, particularly in data centers, which is straining U.S. power supply. Fawkes highlights investment opportunities in energy infrastructure firms like Liberty Energy and Argan that can address electricity bottlenecks created by AI growth. |
| Aug 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AVIO IM, MAXR, NVDA, PKE, VH2 GR | ai buildout, DataCenters, Energy Demand, fiscal spending, infrastructure |
VH2 GR NVDA PKE MAXR |
The letter centers on infrastructure spending as a multi-year investment cycle, with emphasis on German and AI-related infrastructure buildouts. Management argues that energy, datacenter capacity, and grid investments are structurally underappreciated by markets. The theme is supported by government policy and secular demand growth. |
| Apr 28 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 26 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ACMR, GEO, SKYX, SXE AU | - | - | |
| Oct 25 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AGX, CLS, GEO, LEU | - | - | |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BDT CN, CRDO, HPS/A CN, QCOM, VRT | - | - | |
| Apr 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AGX, ARQ, HPS/A CN, KMI, POWL | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Semiconductor CycleThe portfolio's underweight to South Korean semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, was a key driver of relative underperformance. These stocks continued to benefit from strong AI-related memory demand and elevated investor enthusiasm. Memory chips are largely a commoditized product with weak pricing power, extreme capital intensity and pronounced boom-bust cycles that lead to volatile earnings. |
Memory South Korea Cyclical Commoditized Volatility | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q2 |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | FELIX AU | Felix Gold Ltd. | Other | Metals & Mining | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | Antimony, Commodities, Critical Minerals, Gold, Mining, Profits, supply chain | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | AI, datacenters, energy, Fracking, Gas turbines, growth, infrastructure, Power | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | BE | Bloom Energy Corp. | Industrials | Alternative Energy | Bull | NYSE | AI, Clean tech, Decentralization, energy, Fuel cells, growth, infrastructure | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | ARGN | Argan Inc. | Health Care | Engineering & Construction | Bull | NYSE | AI, backlog, construction, energy, engineering, growth, infrastructure | Login |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | VH2 GR | Friedrich Vorwerk Group SE | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | - | growth, Hydrogen, infrastructure, Pipelines, spending | Login |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | Datacentres, energy, materials, semiconductors, Supercapacitors | Login |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | PKE | Park Aerospace Corp. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, Budgets, Composites, Engines, Missiles | Login |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | MAXR | Maxar Technologies Inc. | Real Estate | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Communications, Defense, Imagery, Satellites, Surveillance | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | 8637 HK | Metasurface Technologies | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, CapEx, cash, Equipment, Pricing power, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Internet Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cash flow, cloud, growth, innovation, Margins | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | AI, datacenters, energy, Fracking, Gas turbines, growth, infrastructure, Power | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Xinyu Ru | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Internet Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cash flow, cloud, growth, innovation, Margins | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 000660.KS | SK Hynix has solidified its leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), emerging as the exclusive HBM supplier for Microsoft's in-house AI accelerator and securing roughly two-thirds of NVIDIA's anticipated HBM4 demand for its next-generation platforms at meaningfully higher price points and margins than prior generations. |
| 0300.HK | Performance was driven largely by our major position in Wasion Holdings, as market participants continued to recognise the company's earnings power in supplying electrical products globally. |
| AMAT | Top gainers in the Fund this quarter included Applied Materials (+26%). During the quarter, we trimmed the Fund's holding in Applied Materials as it rallied |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| INTC | even Intel (a frequent punchline for missing cycles) found itself unexpectedly capacity-constrained in data-centre CPUs. |
| LRCX | we believe it is well positioned to become an approved vendor for Lam Research (a supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment) as well |
| TSM | TSMC was a top contributor during the quarter, driven by robust demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing and improved gross margins as AI continues to grow strong and the non-AI segment showed signs of recovery. Management raised its revenue growth guidance to the mid-30% range, and given continued strength in demand, AI-related growth targets are expected to move above the current mid-40% level. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
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