| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | - | 16.9% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 4.1% |
FCL Capital delivered 16.88% returns in USD for 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, as their contrarian positioning in emerging markets finally paid off after years of underperformance. The fund's core thesis centers on copper as an indirect play on AI and energy transition, building positions in diversified copper miners trading at traditional commodity multiples despite exposure to revolutionary demand drivers. FCL estimates AI data centers will require 500-700 thousand tonnes of copper by 2030, while electric vehicles and renewable energy create additional structural demand against constrained supply. The letter critiques Brazilian investors' false belief in risk-free CDI returns, noting zero USD returns over the past decade, and warns of expensive US tech valuations. Looking forward, FCL sees tokenization and prediction markets as emerging opportunities for 2026, while maintaining overweight positions in China, Brazil, and emerging markets. The fund emphasizes real asset allocation and warns that astronomical returns typically steal from subsequent periods through elevated starting valuations.
FCL Capital identifies value opportunities at the intersection of transformative themes and undervalued assets, particularly copper miners as indirect plays on AI and energy transition, while warning against false safety in Brazilian fixed income and expensive US tech valuations.
FCL expects continued opportunities in undervalued markets and themes, particularly copper miners as indirect AI plays. They remain constructive on emerging markets while becoming more open to US tech themes. The fund anticipates tokenization and prediction markets will create new investment opportunities in 2026.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0700.HK, 1211.HK, 6367.T, AAPL, FCX, GLEN.L, HBM.TO, HDB, KGH.WA, KWEB, MSFT, NVDA, SCCO, TSLA | AI, Brazil, Copper, crypto, emerging markets, Energy Transition, technology, value | - | FCL has built a position in copper miners as an indirect play on AI, energy transition, and urbanization. The fund views copper as undervalued relative… |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASML, BKNG, BYD, CHGG | AI, Capex, Cloud, infrastructure, semiconductors | - | FCL frames AI as a transformational but volatile technological wave, with potential outcomes ranging from exponential economic growth to systemic risk. They emphasize picks-and-shovels beneficiaries… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
BrazilFocus on Brazilian equity market opportunities amid political uncertainty and electoral cycles. The firm views Brazil as experiencing cyclical pessimism that creates valuation opportunities, while maintaining that institutional changes are less dramatic than headlines suggest. |
Elections Political Risk Bovespa Institutional Cycles | |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 0700.HK | Shinya also visited Shenzhen, where Star Magnolia Capital organized an educational visit for our families to Tencent's headquarters, alongside meetings with several promising early-stage companies. |
| 1211.HK | The contributors in returns in 2025 came from BYD Co Ltd, American Express Co, and Bank of America Corp. Similarly with BYD, the thesis is simple. It has the most integrated operations and lowest costs. Yes, there is currently a price war but that means that BYD can drive much-needed consolidation in China and perhaps beyond. Moreover, with its low-cost structure, BYD can choose to return the industry to profitability when it wants. |
| 6367.T | We added to our positions in Daikin, a global leader in air conditioning systems, on valuation. |
| AAPL | AAPL shares rose in 4Q25 following better-than-feared iPhone 17 sell-through trends and stronger Services momentum. The company reported that early adoption of its on-device AI features exceeded internal expectations, particularly in North America and Europe, where attach rates for Pro models remained elevated. Wearables also returned to growth, helped by new health features and improved battery life. |
| FCX | Freeport McMoRan was able to recover the share price drawdown seen in September following a major mudflow event at their Grasberg mine, which resulted in a full suspension of production and a material cut to guidance. The share price finished 2025 at its high. |
| GLEN.L | Glencore also contributed as commodity markets remained firm. |
| HBM.TO | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| KGH.WA | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| SCCO | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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