| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.12% | 0% | 4.05% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 4.1% |
FCL Capital delivered 16.88% returns in USD for 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, as their contrarian positioning in emerging markets finally paid off after years of underperformance. The fund's core thesis centers on copper as an indirect play on AI and energy transition, building positions in diversified copper miners trading at traditional commodity multiples despite exposure to revolutionary demand drivers. FCL estimates AI data centers will require 500-700 thousand tonnes of copper by 2030, while electric vehicles and renewable energy create additional structural demand against constrained supply. The letter critiques Brazilian investors' false belief in risk-free CDI returns, noting zero USD returns over the past decade, and warns of expensive US tech valuations. Looking forward, FCL sees tokenization and prediction markets as emerging opportunities for 2026, while maintaining overweight positions in China, Brazil, and emerging markets. The fund emphasizes real asset allocation and warns that astronomical returns typically steal from subsequent periods through elevated starting valuations.
FCL Capital identifies value opportunities at the intersection of transformative themes and undervalued assets, particularly copper miners as indirect plays on AI and energy transition, while warning against false safety in Brazilian fixed income and expensive US tech valuations.
FCL expects continued opportunities in undervalued markets and themes, particularly copper miners as indirect AI plays. They remain constructive on emerging markets while becoming more open to US tech themes. The fund anticipates tokenization and prediction markets will create new investment opportunities in 2026.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0700.HK, 1211.HK, 6367.T, AAPL, FCX, GLEN.L, HBM.TO, HDB, KGH.WA, KWEB, MSFT, NVDA, SCCO, TSLA | AI, Brazil, Copper, crypto, emerging markets, Energy Transition, technology, value | - | FCL delivered 16.88% USD returns in 2025 by positioning in undervalued copper miners as indirect AI plays. The fund built diversified copper exposure expecting structural demand from data centers, EVs, and renewables against constrained supply. FCL warns Brazilian investors about false CDI safety and expensive US tech valuations while anticipating tokenization opportunities in 2026. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1211.HK, AAPL, AMZN, ASML, BKNG, CHGG, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, TSLA, TSM | AI, ASML, China, Investment, Lithography, semiconductors, technology | - | FCL Capital positions for the AI revolution through ASML, the monopoly provider of advanced lithography machines essential for cutting-edge semiconductors. While AI hype inflates valuations across the ecosystem, ASML offers the widest technological moat with 20% expected annual growth through 2030. The fund delivered 19.5% YTD returns in USD, benefiting from Chinese corporate governance improvements and selective technology exposure. |
| - | 2025 Q2 | 1211 HK, 2020 HK, 6367.T, AAPL, HDFCBANK.NS, MONC.MI, NVDA, TKNGY | China, Consensus, contrarian, Daikin, emerging markets, HVAC, Psychology, valuation | 6367.T | FCL Capital advocates contrarian investing against consensus, maintaining overweight emerging markets exposure that drove 15.97% USD returns in H1 2025. Added Daikin position targeting HVAC growth in developing markets. Expects continued EM outperformance as US tech faces headwinds from slower growth and higher AI capex requirements. |
| - | 2025 Q1 | 1211 HK, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, HDB, META, MSFT, NVDA, PDD, TSLA | BYD, China, Electric Vehicles, Exceptionalism, Tesla, trade war, valuation |
1211.HK TSLA |
FCL Capital calls the US market a relative bubble driven by excessive American exceptionalism beliefs. The fund maintains heavy China exposure (38.87%) with BYD as the largest holding and Tesla as a short position. Despite trade war escalation, the manager sees Chinese companies offering superior value and technology leadership for long-term outperformance. |
| - | 2024 Q4 | 1211 HK, HDB, NFLX, NYT, PDD, TSLA | China, contrarian, emerging markets, global, Media, Resilience, technology, value | NYT | FCL Capital champions investment irregularity over predictability, delivering 9.14% returns while maintaining contrarian positions in China (35% allocation) and identifying The New York Times as a hidden gem with global brand moat and 11 million digital subscribers. The fund embraces nonlinear returns, believing spectacular long-term performance requires tolerance for volatility rather than seeking mediocre consistency. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 1211 HK, 2020 HK, GOOGL, MC.PA, MTCH, PDD, TSLA, UBER | AI, China, dividends, Electric Vehicles, Investment Philosophy, Stimulus, technology, value |
UBER PDD MTCH |
FCL Capital gained 9.98% in Q3 2024, boosted by China's surprise stimulus package. Despite setbacks in core holdings Uber, PDD, and Match due to autonomous vehicle fears, political sensitivities, and pandemic hangover effects respectively, the manager maintains conviction in long-term thesis. Heavy China exposure (37.91%) and concentrated portfolio (top 5 = 60.41%) reflect high-conviction approach to world-changing companies. |
| - | 2024 Q2 | 1211 HK, 2587.T, 3382.T, 6501.T, 7974.T, 8058.T, MONC.MI, PDD, UBER | AI, Corporate Governance, emerging markets, gaming, Japan, Luxury, small caps, value |
3382.T 2587.T 7974.T |
FCL Capital sees Japan's corporate governance revolution creating value opportunities while avoiding overvalued AI stocks. The fund expects mean reversion favoring small caps and emerging markets over large cap US tech dominance. Nintendo could replicate Apple's 2015 transformation by breaking console cycle dependency. Portfolio remains concentrated with strong geographic diversification across China, US, Europe, and emerging markets. |
| - | 2022 Q2 | AMBP3.SA, CPRI, ENT.L, FLRY3.SA, GDDY, HYPE3.SA, META, VIPS, YDUQ3.SA | Bear Market, Brazil, China, diversification, Luxury, small caps, Tech Correction, value |
YDUQ3.SA FLRY3.SA AMBP3.SA HYPE3.SA |
FCL Capital's diversification strategy failed during Q2 2022's broad market correction, with the fund declining 29.89% despite correctly calling the US tech bubble. Brazilian small caps, European luxury, and Chinese equities all underperformed. Management views the selloff as clearing market excesses and expects their contrarian positioning to benefit as cycles turn. |
| - | 2022 Q1 | CARL-B.CO, CPRI, ENT.L, FLRY3.SA, GDDY, MTCH, YDUQ3.SA | Brazil, China, diversification, emerging markets, Europe, global, growth, Valuations | - | FCL Capital's globally diversified fund targets undervalued emerging markets, particularly China and Brazil, expecting 2022 to reverse 2021's underperformance trends. Chinese regulatory support and Brazilian strength signal potential turning point. With 55.7% concentration in top 5 positions and geographic diversification preventing overexposure to single events, the fund positions for emerging market outperformance versus expensive US markets. |
| - | 2021 Q4 | BRFS3.SA, CPRI, ENT.L, FLRY3.SA, GDDY, HFG.DE, SUZB3.SA, VIPS, YDUQ3.SA, YY | Brazil, contrarian, E-Commerce, emerging markets, Food, HelloFresh, technology, valuation | HFG.DE | FCL Capital makes a contrarian case for Brazil and emerging markets in the 2020s, arguing historic valuation discounts and currency undervaluation create compelling opportunities. The firm's concentrated portfolio includes disruptive growth stories like HelloFresh alongside Brazilian oligopolists, positioning for mean reversion after a decade of emerging market underperformance versus developed markets. |
| - | 2021 Q3 | AAPL, CPRI, DKNG, ENTG.L, FLRY3.SA, GDDY, MGM, MTCH, VALE, YDUQ3.SA | China, crypto, emerging markets, Gambling, global, technology, value | - | FCL Capital delivered 18% returns over 12 months through concentrated global investing in overlooked opportunities. Largest position Entain received DraftKings takeover bid at 45% premium. Fund maintains 1.9% crypto exposure via Ethereum, believing it could surpass Bitcoin. Despite regulatory concerns, maintains emerging market focus expecting outperformance versus developed markets in coming decade through faster growth and valuation reversion. |
| - | 2021 Q2 | 2020 HK, BABA, BRFS3.SA, CPRI, ENT.L, GDDY, VIPS, YDUQ3.SA | China, Consolidation, Environmental, global, regulation, technology, value |
GDDY VIPS |
FCL Capital returned 8.45% in H1 2021 despite Chinese tech headwinds. Manager identifies value opportunities in overlooked tech names like GoDaddy and introduces environmental services play Ambipar. Challenges winner-takes-all mentality, showing second-tier competitors can outperform. Maintains conviction in Chinese growth story despite regulatory pressure. Sees attractive entry points emerging from recent selloffs across global markets. |
| - | 2021 Q1 | 2020 HK, BHP, BRFS, CPRI, ENT.L, FLRY3.SA, MONC.MI, RIO, SUZB3.SA, VALE, VIPS, YDUQ3.SA, YY | China, commodities, emerging markets, growth, Iron Ore, Mining, value | - | FCL Capital's contrarian approach delivered 14.09% in Q1 2021, with four-year returns of 211.74% in BRL. Their Vale thesis exemplifies their misfit philosophy - buying a world-class iron ore miner at 6x P/E due to governance issues and sector disfavor. They expect the 2020s to favor emerging markets value over developed market growth. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
ConcentrationU.S. equity market concentration has reached extreme levels with the ten largest S&P 500 constituents accounting for over 40% of index weight. This concentration creates challenges for risk management and alpha generation in actively managed portfolios. The concentration is driven by both expanding valuations and growing earnings share of the largest companies. |
Market Structure Index Weight Risk Management Alpha Generation Portfolio Construction |
RiskConcentration has led to increased volatility contribution from the largest stocks, now accounting for over 50% of S&P 500 volatility. The distribution of betas has widened significantly, creating challenges for traditional risk models. Existing risk management approaches may be unprepared for this uneven distribution of market exposures. |
Volatility Beta Distribution Risk Models Market Exposure Portfolio Risk | |
AIBreakthroughs in artificial intelligence have helped drive strong performance in mega cap technology stocks, contributing to increased market concentration. AI is identified as one of the key technological drivers behind the outperformance of the largest companies in recent years. |
Technology Mega Cap Performance Innovation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIFCL dedicates significant analysis to artificial intelligence, viewing it as transformational technology that could fundamentally alter economic logic with potential for 30-50% annual global growth. The firm discusses AI's evolution from Deep Blue defeating Kasparov to AlphaGo's creative moves, highlighting both extraordinary opportunities and existential risks including potential human extinction scenarios. |
Machine Learning Superintelligence Automation Innovation Disruption |
SemiconductorsThe letter extensively covers the semiconductor ecosystem, particularly focusing on lithography as the critical bottleneck. FCL emphasizes how chip complexity continues following Moore's Law, requiring ever-more sophisticated manufacturing processes, with EUV lithography representing an unassailable technological moat. |
Lithography EUV Chip Manufacturing Moore's Law Fabrication | |
ChinaFCL views recent Chinese corporate governance improvements as highly encouraging, particularly the April 2024 guidelines endorsing share buybacks. The firm sees China's anti-involution campaign and focus on practical AI applications in manufacturing as positive developments supporting the current bull market. |
Corporate Governance Buybacks Manufacturing Bull Market Policy Reform | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ChinaManager maintains bullish stance on Chinese markets despite criticism, noting China has generated over a third of fund profits despite being less than 20% of exposure. Views current consensus shift toward China as potentially creating a Parolin-like situation where the opportunity may be becoming more recognized. |
China Emerging Markets Valuation Consensus Outperformance |
HVACDetailed investment thesis on Daikin as the global leader in air conditioning with strongest positioning in high-growth emerging markets like Africa and India. Views the $320 billion global HVAC market as having significant runway for growth driven by rising incomes and low penetration in developing markets. |
HVAC Daikin Emerging Markets Growth Infrastructure | |
Emerging MarketsFund maintains overweight position in emerging markets versus US, which shifted from headwind to tailwind in 2025 as Chinese, Brazilian and European stocks outperformed US peers. Manager expects continued outperformance as US tech sector becomes less magnificent. |
Emerging Markets Outperformance Diversification Valuation | |
ConsensusCentral theme exploring how consensus formation leads to mispricing opportunities. Uses papal conclave betting as metaphor for market behavior, emphasizing the importance of independent thinking and taking contrarian positions when consensus appears wrong. |
Consensus Contrarian Behavioral Finance Psychology | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Electric VehiclesManager holds BYD as largest position (14.95% of portfolio) and shorts Tesla. BYD has become the world's largest EV company with superior technology including 5-minute charging and autonomous driving systems. Tesla has fallen behind technologically with outdated models and declining sales globally except in the protected US market. |
BYD Tesla Charging Autonomous Competition |
ChinaPortfolio has 38.87% allocation to China across multiple holdings including BYD, Anta, and PDD. Manager views China as offering better value and growth prospects than US markets, with Chinese companies leading in 37 of 44 promising 21st century technologies. Trade war impacts are manageable for portfolio companies. |
Technology Valuation Growth Innovation Trade | |
Trade PolicyUS-China trade war has escalated with 104% US tariffs on China and 84% Chinese retaliation. Manager views this as destructive value creation but believes portfolio is well-positioned as most Chinese holdings have limited US exposure. Sees trade tensions as evidence of declining US exceptionalism. |
Tariffs Retaliation Value Disruption Protection | |
United StatesManager argues US markets are in a relative bubble driven by excessive belief in American exceptionalism. While US deserves some premium for structural advantages, current valuations reflect emotion rather than fundamentals. US showing signs of decline including reduced openness and increased protectionism. |
Exceptionalism Bubble Valuation Premium Decline | |
| 2024 Q4 |
MediaThe New York Times represents a hidden gem investment opportunity as one of the few elite publications that can thrive in the digital transition. With premium branding, global distribution capabilities, and growing digital subscriber base reaching 11 million total subscribers, the company benefits from online distribution, increased English proficiency worldwide, and learning to monetize social media effectively. |
Publishing Digital Transformation Subscription Content Global Distribution |
ChinaDespite conventional wisdom about Chinese market underperformance, the total market value of Chinese listed companies increased 212% versus 186% for US companies over the past decade. The performance gap is largely due to share buybacks in the US creating scarcity while China saw many IPOs with fewer buybacks, causing individual share performance to lag despite strong underlying market value growth. |
Market Value IPOs Buybacks Performance | |
ResilienceInvestment success requires tolerance for irregularity and nonlinear outcomes. The fund emphasizes that spectacular returns come with periods of underperformance, citing examples like Michael Burry's housing crisis bet and Elon Musk's near-bankruptcy before Tesla's success. Investors must choose between predictable mediocre returns or spectacular long-term returns with volatility. |
Volatility Nonlinear Patience Conviction | |
| 2024 Q3 |
DividendsManager explores dividend investing strategy, arguing that while dividends don't inherently create superior returns, focusing on dividend-paying stocks can help investors beat the market through three mechanisms: selecting cheaper stocks (value factor), identifying quality companies with sustainable cash flows, and providing psychological discipline that prevents emotional trading mistakes. |
Dividends Value Quality Psychology Discipline |
AIManager discusses AI's impact on investing and business, particularly Tesla's pivot to positioning itself as an AI company rather than a car company, and the potential for AI to disrupt Uber's business model through autonomous vehicles. Also mentions the dawn of AI era and its promises across many fields. |
AI Automation Tesla Uber Technology | |
ChinaManager provides extensive analysis of China's economic stimulus measures in late September 2024, including central bank actions, real estate policy changes, and the creation of a state fund to promote share buybacks. Discusses the political risks facing successful Chinese companies like PDD and the government's pragmatic response to market conditions. |
China Stimulus PDD Policy Buybacks | |
Electric VehiclesManager argues that BYD will overtake Tesla as the EV leader because future car buyers will prioritize price and convenience over novelty and ideology. Chinese EV companies, particularly BYD, have superior engineering and more affordable models that can serve mass markets, especially in emerging economies. |
Electric Vehicles BYD Tesla China Competition | |
| 2024 Q2 |
JapanJapan is experiencing a corporate governance revolution with improved shareholder alignment, English reporting, and management engagement. The country offers attractive value opportunities in heavy industry and machinery sectors with cheap multiples and conservative management implementing share buybacks and ROIC targets for the first time. |
Corporate Governance Value Heavy Industry Machinery Shareholder Returns |
GamingNintendo represents a fascinating transformation opportunity similar to Apple in 2015, potentially breaking free from console cycle dependency through Nintendo Direct streaming services. The company commands global devotion and could see multiple expansion if it transitions from a device company to a subscription-based model. |
Nintendo Console Cycle Streaming Subscription Multiple Expansion | |
LuxuryJapan represents 10% of global luxury sales despite having only 125 million people, driven by Japanese perfectionism and minimalist culture that demands the highest quality. Moncler maintains a prominent flagship store in Ginza that remains busy even in summer. |
Moncler Japanese Perfectionism Premium Consumption Quality | |
AICurrent AI frenzy parallels mid-2000s commodity super cycle with NVIDIA unable to produce chips fast enough for large language models. However, it's hard to justify current NVIDIA prices under any plausible chip demand assumptions, lacking margin of safety. |
NVIDIA Chip Demand Super Cycle Valuation | |
Small CapsSmall caps have significantly underperformed large caps over the past decade, with the Russell 2000 showing dramatically lower returns than the S&P 500. This house expects eventual reversion to long-term norms with small cap outperformance against large cap peers. |
Russell 2000 Underperformance Mean Reversion Cycle | |
| 2022 Q2 |
ValueManager argues that after the tech correction, promising growth stocks have given away their abnormal valuation premium compared to value stocks and are now trading at reasonable valuations. Traditional value plays like banks and commodity companies outperformed during the correction. |
Multiples Valuation Premium Traditional Banks |
Small CapsThe fund focused on Brazilian small caps as a defense against overvalued US large caps, but these positions underperformed despite good operational results. Small caps suffered from narrower exit doors during the sell-off, creating surprising correlation with global equities. |
Brazil Defensive Correlation Liquidity Exit | |
ChinaChina was positioned as diversification away from overvalued US tech but suffered from government tech crackdown and restrictive lockdowns. However, the government is now showing signs of reversing course and Chinese shares are starting to outperform the wider market. |
Tech Crackdown Lockdowns Reversal Outperform Diversification | |
LuxuryEuropean luxury companies were viewed as one of the last free lunches in global markets, benefiting from wealth creation in emerging markets while trading at European multiples. The thesis was disrupted by the Ukraine invasion affecting European-based companies. |
European Emerging Markets Wealth Creation Ukraine Geopolitical | |
| 2022 Q1 |
ChinaChinese government announced end to tech crackdown and support for overseas listings, with Liu He's comprehensive announcement addressing international investor concerns. Golden Dragon Index rose 32% following the announcement. Manager sees ingredients for a turning point after tough year. |
Tech Crackdown Overseas Listings Regulatory Golden Dragon |
BrazilBrazilian market rose 35% in USD terms during quarter, helped by distance from Ukraine conflict and commodities exposure. Manager views Brazil as one of cheapest markets globally with greatest medium-term perspectives, trading at several standard deviations below usual multiples. |
Commodities Valuations Domestic Economy Ibovespa | |
EuropeEuropean luxury viewed as 2020s equivalent to US technology in 2010s - undisputed global champions trading at multiples that don't reflect this reality. Manager expects massive outperformance versus US when European markets return to normal historical discount. |
Luxury Valuations Discount Ukraine | |
CryptoBitcoin increasingly seen as digital gold and lifeline during stress, though not yet fully grown into this role. During recent conflict, Bitcoin fell only 5% versus 12% for Nasdaq despite 3x volatility, showing it's slowly becoming less purely risk-on. |
Digital Gold Bitcoin Ethereum Safe Haven | |
Emerging marketsAfter years of underperformance, emerging markets especially Brazil began outperforming developed peers in first quarter. Manager sees potential turning point with winds changing direction after extended period of flight to quality. |
Outperformance Flight to Quality Turning Point Valuations | |
ValuationsGlobal equity indexes, especially non-US ones, trading near historically low multiples after fear-driven selloff. Amazing growth companies trading at cheapest valuations in many years, creating bargain hunting opportunities. |
Multiples Growth Stocks Bargain Hunting Fear | |
| 2021 Q4 |
BrazilFCL argues Brazil could be entering a new investment golden age, with the currency significantly undervalued at -37.8% PPP, market cap at historic lows of 0.6% of global total, and structural improvements in capital markets enabling company growth. The firm sees Brazil as one of the last true contrarian opportunities for global investors in the 2020s. |
Emerging Markets Currency Valuation Capital Markets Contrarian |
E-commerceHelloFresh represents a major disruption to traditional grocery shopping through meal kit delivery. The company has grown from €1.3B to €5.5B in sales over three years, outcompeting rivals like Blue Apron. FCL sees this as transforming how people eat at home, with significant runway for geographic and product expansion. |
Food Delivery Subscription Disruption Technology Growth | |
Emerging MarketsThe firm believes emerging markets, particularly Brazil, China and Turkey, represent contrarian opportunities after a decade of underperformance. Risk premiums and valuation discounts versus developed markets are at historic extremes, setting up potential mean reversion and outperformance in the 2020s. |
Valuation Contrarian Risk Premium Mean Reversion | |
| 2021 Q3 |
CryptoManager holds 1.9% exposure to Ethereum through an ETN, believing Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptoasset. Views Ethereum as a programmable money platform enabling DeFi applications, NFTs, and smart contracts. Sees crypto as potentially creating a new financial system alongside traditional finance. |
Ethereum Bitcoin DeFi NFTs Smart Contracts |
GamblingEntain is the fund's largest position at 13.2% and received a takeover bid from DraftKings at £2,800 per share, representing a 45% premium. Manager views any offer below this price as significantly undervaluing the company's long-term potential in the expanding global online gambling industry. |
Online Gambling Sports Betting Gaming Apps M&A | |
ChinaDespite reducing some Chinese positions due to regulatory concerns, manager remains committed to China exposure. Notes that Chinese markets have outperformed US markets over 20 years despite high volatility, with 17 bear markets in 20 years. Views China as an economic adolescent with best decades ahead. |
Chinese Equities Regulatory Risk Volatility Economic Growth | |
| 2021 Q2 |
ChinaManager discusses Chinese tech companies facing regulatory pressure from the Communist Party, particularly around VIE structures and overseas listings. Despite near-term headwinds, believes China will remain pragmatic and the regulatory crackdown represents temporary turbulence rather than fundamental threat to investment thesis. |
Regulation Technology VIE Listings Valuation |
TechnologyManager argues that while US tech companies like FAANGs trade at extreme valuations, opportunities exist in overlooked names like GoDaddy and Chinese tech companies trading at significant discounts. Challenges the winner-takes-all mentality, showing that second-tier competitors can deliver strong growth. |
Valuation FAANGs Multiples Competition Growth | |
Environmental ServicesManager introduces Ambipar as a potential beneficiary of a third major global trend around environmental responsibility. Sees the company as uniquely positioned to consolidate a fragmented industry as corporations face increasing pressure to manage environmental risks and waste disposal sustainably. |
Consolidation Waste Management Sustainability Regulation Growth | |
ValueManager identifies significant valuation discrepancies within sectors, particularly between US and Chinese tech companies. Emphasizes finding quality companies trading at conservative multiples while avoiding overvalued market darlings, citing specific free cash flow yield comparisons. |
Multiples Discrepancy Quality Cash Flow Opportunity | |
| 2021 Q1 |
Iron OreVale represents a compelling value opportunity in iron ore mining, trading at historically low multiples despite being a world-class company. The manager believes iron ore will remain highly profitable for the next 20-30 years driven by China's continued urbanization and steel demand. Vale's governance issues have created a mispricing anomaly with normalized free cash flow yield near 20%. |
Vale Mining China Steel Urbanization |
ValueThe manager expects the 2020s to bring above-average returns for value stocks, especially in emerging markets and sectors like commodities and industrials. They see a rotation away from expensive tech and growth names toward undervalued companies that were left behind in recent rallies. |
Rotation Multiples Emerging markets Commodities | |
ChinaChinese tech and consumer names are positioned as champions of the future. The manager highlights China's ongoing urbanization with a million people per month moving to cities through 2050, driving steel and infrastructure demand. Chinese companies represent a core investment theme focused on benefiting from expanding Asian wealth. |
Urbanization Tech Consumer Wealth | |
Emerging marketsAfter lagging for the past decade, emerging markets are positioned for outperformance in the 2020s. The manager sees particular opportunities in value companies within commodities and industrials sectors, as well as companies able to capitalize on Asian industrialization and wealth expansion. |
Outperformance Commodities Industrials Asia |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | Software - Application | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | autonomous vehicles, Emerging markets, Free Cash Flow, mobility, network effects, ride-hailing, technology platform | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | PDD | PDD Holdings Inc | Internet Retail | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | cash generation, China, e-commerce, growth, political risk, regulatory scrutiny, Temu | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | MTCH | Match Group Inc | Internet Content & Information | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Opportunity, Dating Apps, Free Cash Flow, gamification, Hinge, market leadership, Tinder, Value Investment | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | 3382.T | Seven & i Holdings | Grocery Stores | Food & Staples Retailing | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | consumer staples, convenience stores, Demographics, Japan, retail, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | YDUQ3.SA | Yduqs | Education & Training Services | Education Services | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Brazil, Distance Learning, Education, Enrollment Growth, Higher Education, Medical Programs, Multiples Compression, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | HFG.DE | HelloFresh SE | Restaurants | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | - | Artificial Intelligence, Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, Europe, Food Technology, Germany, growth, Meal Kit Delivery, Platform business, Subscription service | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | 2587.T | Suntory Holdings | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | Beverages | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consumer staples, international expansion, Japanese Brands, Luxury, Premium Beverages, Whiskey | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | FLRY3.SA | Fleury | Diagnostics & Research | Health Care Services | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Brazil, diagnostics, healthcare, Healthcare consolidation, laboratory services, premium market, Preventive Medicine, Regulatory advantage | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | 7974.T | Nintendo | Electronic Gaming & Multimedia | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Consumer Discretionary, entertainment, Gaming, Intellectual Property, Japan, platform, subscription model | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | GDDY | GoDaddy Inc. | Software - Infrastructure | Internet Services & Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | digital infrastructure, Domain registration, Emerging markets, internet services, SaaS, small business, technology, Web Hosting | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | AMBP3.SA | Ambipar | Waste Management | Environmental & Facilities Services | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Acquisitions, Brazil, consolidation, environmental services, international expansion, IPO Success, market cycle, organic growth | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | 1211.HK | BYD Company Limited | Auto Manufacturers | Automobiles | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | automotive technology, autonomous driving, battery technology, Chinese Manufacturer, Electric Vehicles, Emerging markets, Global Market Leader, Trade War Resilient | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | Internet Retail | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | China, Consumer Discretionary, contrarian, discount retail, e-commerce, Flash Sales, technology, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | HYPE3.SA | Hypera | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Aging Population, Brand management, Brazil, Consumer healthcare, defensive, Multiples Compression, Off-Patent Drugs, pharmaceuticals, secular growth | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | Auto Manufacturers | Automobiles | Bear | NASDAQ | automotive technology, Brand risk, Chinese Competition, Competitive Displacement, Electric Vehicles, Post-Growth Company, Short Position, valuation disconnect | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | 6367.T | Daikin Industries | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Air Conditioning, Asia-Pacific, Emerging markets, global leader, growth, HVAC, Industrial Equipment, infrastructure, Japan, Penetration | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | - | Ambipar Participações e Empreendimentos S.A. | Waste Management | Environmental & Facilities Services | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Brazil, consolidation, Emergency Response, environmental services, ESG, growth, industrial services, waste management | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | NYT | The New York Times Company | Publishing | Publishing | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brand moat, Content, Digital Subscribers, Digital transformation, Global distribution, Journalism, media, Paywall, Publishing, subscription model | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | FCL Capital | - | Vale S.A. | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Brazil, China, Commodities, Cyclical, Emerging markets, ESG, Iron ore, Mining, Steel, turnaround, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 0700.HK | Shinya also visited Shenzhen, where Star Magnolia Capital organized an educational visit for our families to Tencent's headquarters, alongside meetings with several promising early-stage companies. |
| 1211.HK | The contributors in returns in 2025 came from BYD Co Ltd, American Express Co, and Bank of America Corp. Similarly with BYD, the thesis is simple. It has the most integrated operations and lowest costs. Yes, there is currently a price war but that means that BYD can drive much-needed consolidation in China and perhaps beyond. Moreover, with its low-cost structure, BYD can choose to return the industry to profitability when it wants. |
| 6367.T | We added to our positions in Daikin, a global leader in air conditioning systems, on valuation. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| FCX | Freeport McMoRan was able to recover the share price drawdown seen in September following a major mudflow event at their Grasberg mine, which resulted in a full suspension of production and a material cut to guidance. The share price finished 2025 at its high. |
| GLEN.L | Glencore also contributed as commodity markets remained firm. |
| HBM.TO | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| KGH.WA | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| SCCO | Listed as one of the top 5 components of COPX with forward P/E ratio shown in chart |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
