| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Steven Gorelik argues that the war in Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally shifted global energy dynamics, moving focus from artificial intelligence and data centers back to traditional energy infrastructure. The disruption affects 20% of global oil production and highlights the dangerous fragility of an energy system operating with less than 3% spare capacity. Drawing parallels to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo and 1979 Iranian revolution, Gorelik expects a major investment period that will more than double capital committed to finding new hydrocarbon sources. Since 2014, oil and gas investments have declined due to price volatility and renewable energy concerns, with current levels remaining 40% below 2014 peaks despite recent recovery. The manager believes countries will seek alternatives to reduce dependency on single energy sources, driving investments in both additional oil and gas sources and increased renewable penetration. This investment cycle is expected to exceed 2014 peaks as the world addresses energy security vulnerabilities exposed by recent geopolitical events.
The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains, creating a catalyst for a major investment cycle in hydrocarbon exploration and production similar to the 1970s oil crises.
Manager expects a major investment period in hydrocarbon exploration and production, similar to the response following the 1970s oil crises. Investments are expected to exceed 2014 peaks as countries seek to reduce dependency on single energy sources. The response will likely include both additional oil and gas sources and increased renewable energy penetration.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | energy, Geopolitical Risk, Investment Cycle, Middle East, oil, Supply Chain | - | Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 20% of global oil production, exposing dangerous energy supply fragility. Manager expects major investment cycle in hydrocarbon exploration similar to 1970s oil crises, with capital spending likely exceeding 2014 peaks as countries reduce single-source dependency through both traditional and renewable energy investments. |
| Oct 21 2025 | 2025 Q3 | META | AI, Data centers, infrastructure, Investment, productivity, technology, value | - | Massive AI infrastructure spending continues despite growing skepticism about returns. Meta exemplifies successful monetization, deploying $70 billion annually in data centers with clear path to double-digit returns through improved ad targeting. Unlike companies still seeking business models, Meta's execution-dependent approach offers better prospects. AI resembles early automobiles - powerful but requiring refinement before widespread adoption. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 1299.HK, 2330.TW, 2912.TW, 300012.SZ, 300124.SZ, 3690.HK, 9999.HK, BBCA.JK, BCH, FMX, HDB, NTCO3.SA, RADL3.SA, UL | AI, Brazil, China, emerging markets, Indonesia, Quality, semiconductors | - | Aikya's emerging markets fund underperformed in October despite positive returns, missing semiconductor momentum while maintaining quality and valuation discipline. Indonesian banks benefited from improved sentiment, Chinese holdings faced correction headwinds, and Latin American consumer names showed mixed results. The fund's defensive positioning and focus on high-quality companies at sensible valuations remains unchanged despite short-term underperformance. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AIZ, FTI, NTR, RCM, SNBR, SYF, TRV | Buybacks, Capital Allocation, free cash flow, insurance, rates, value |
TRV AIZ |
Firebird argues that while S&P 500 buybacks destroy value due to sub-3% free cash flow yields, their portfolio's 7.1% yield makes repurchases accretive. The fund showcases decade-long insurance holdings Travelers and Assurant as examples of strong capital allocation. After selling three positions including a 3x winner in TechnipFMC, the 30-company portfolio targets 12% long-term returns. |
| Jul 10 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 004800.KS, 028260.KS, 090430.KS, 267250.KS, 4527.T, 9301.T, CDI.PA, CHRY.L, CORD.L, DIE.BR, ENT.L, GXI.DE, HVPE.L, J36.SI, NWSA, OCI.L, PGHN.SW, REA.AX, VIV.PA | discount, Engagement, Holdings, Korea, NAV, value | NWSA | AVI Global Trust focuses on companies trading at discounts to net asset value, building Korean exposure to 9.5% of NAV amid corporate governance reforms. Korean holdings delivered 25% weighted returns while News Corp discount widened despite family trust resolution. With 68% of KOSPI below book value, outlook remains compelling for active value investors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilWar in Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of global oil production, highlighting fragile equilibrium with less than 3% spare capacity. Manager expects major investment period similar to 1970s oil crises, with capital spending likely to exceed 2014 peaks as countries seek alternatives to single-source dependency. |
Hydrocarbons Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk Investment Cycle Energy Security |
Natural GasNatural gas investments have been at historic lows since 2014 due to price volatility and renewable energy concerns. Current investment levels remain 40% below 2014 levels despite recent recovery. Manager expects significant increase in hydrocarbon investments following Middle East disruptions. |
Investment Cycle Supply Chain Energy Security Geopolitical Risk | |
Energy TransitionManager acknowledges the transition from molecules to electrons but emphasizes that daily life remains dominated by hydrocarbons. Expects both additional oil and gas sources and increased renewable penetration as response to supply disruptions. |
Renewables Investment Energy Security Diversification | |
AIArtificial intelligence's impact on employment and productivity was a major focus coming into the year, along with data center construction pace. However, geopolitical events have shifted attention back to traditional energy infrastructure. |
Data Centers Employment Productivity | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIMassive investments in AI infrastructure continue with hundreds of billions being deployed in data centers and compute power. While skepticism exists about returns, companies like Meta are demonstrating measurable paths to monetization through improved ad targeting. The technology resembles early automobiles - powerful but requiring refinement before widespread adoption. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Monetization Productivity Investment Returns |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe market's continued excitement for AI potential led semiconductor stocks materially higher, with Taiwanese and Korean markets at record highs. While the fund believes in AI's long-term potential, they maintain quality and valuation discipline rather than chasing momentum. |
Semiconductors Taiwan Korea Technology |
QualityAikya's investment approach relies on quality as a key pillar, investing exclusively in high-quality companies. The strategy emphasizes quality discipline alongside valuation considerations when making investment decisions. |
Investment Process Fundamentals Discipline | |
| 2024 Q3 |
BuybacksThe fund analyzes the relationship between interest rates and buyback activity, noting that S&P 500 buybacks have been value-destructive due to low free cash flow yields below borrowing costs. In contrast, the fund's portfolio companies like Synchrony Financial and Nutrien have double-digit free cash flow yields, making their buybacks value-accretive. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation Free Cash Flow Interest Rates Value Creation |
InsuranceThe fund holds two insurance companies for over a decade - Travelers and Assurant. Both companies demonstrate strong capital allocation through dividends and buybacks, with Travelers returning $30 billion to shareholders over ten years while growing intrinsic value at double-digit rates despite modest premium growth. |
P&C Insurance Capital Allocation Independent Agents Combined Ratio Extended Warranties | |
RatesThe letter extensively discusses the Federal Reserve's 0.5% rate cut and the historical context of real interest rates. The manager examines how artificially low rates can lead to asset bubbles and notes that negative real rates benefit borrowers while hurting savers, with implications for corporate investment decisions and buyback profitability. |
Federal Reserve Real Interest Rates Asset Bubbles Monetary Policy Cost of Capital | |
ValueThe fund emphasizes a cash-flow-focused value approach, with the portfolio trading at a 7.1% free cash flow yield versus 2.9% for the S&P 500. The manager expects 9.7% operating cash flow growth over five years and calculates a 12% long-term IRR for the portfolio, demonstrating disciplined valuation-based investing. |
Free Cash Flow Valuation Cash Flow Growth IRR Value Investing | |
| 2024 Q1 |
KoreaBuilding exposure to Korea due to ongoing corporate governance reform agenda and rich array of deeply undervalued companies. Korean names have contributed +1.1% to NAV with weighted average total return of +25%, driven by strong performances at HD Hyundai, Hyosung Corporation and Samsung C&T. 68% of KOSPI index still trading below book value and 61% without sell-side coverage. |
Corporate Governance Value Discount Reform |
ValueFocus on companies whose share prices stand at a discount to estimated underlying net asset value. News Corp trading at significant discount with REA stake accounting for 75% of market cap. Amorepacific Holdings now trades on widest ever discount of 52%. Outlook compelling for nimble, fundamental-focused investors with experience of active engagement. |
Discount NAV Undervaluation Engagement |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Firebird US Value Fund | NWSA | News Corp | Communication Services | Publishing | Bull | NASDAQ | Australia, discount, Dow Jones, Family Trust, holding company, information services, media, Publishing, REA Group, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Firebird US Value Fund | TRV | Travelers Co | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | capital allocation, combined ratio, Commercial Insurance, dividend, Independent Agents, Property & Casualty Insurance, Regulated Insurer, Share Buybacks, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Firebird US Value Fund | AIZ | Assurant Inc | Financials | Multi-line Insurance | Bull | NYSE | business transformation, Extended Service Contracts, Lender-Placed Insurance, M&A, margin expansion, Mobile Device Protection, Niche markets, Pricing power, specialty insurance | Login |
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