Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Focus Wealth Management delivered returns at the high end of long-term targets in 2025, though the firm maintained a cautious posture as markets reached historically elevated valuations. The S&P 500 trades at 22x forward earnings, representing only the fourth time in 100 years markets have been so expensive. The current AI-driven rally parallels the late 1990s tech bubble, with dangerous concentration in large-cap technology stocks. While global markets surged led by AI companies, gold became a major risk-off expression, rising over 60% as confidence in the US dollar waned. The firm's diversified approach focuses on overlooked quality businesses like Jamieson Wellness and Drax Group that generate steady cash flows. In fixed income, they remain prudent on duration risk while selectively investing in opportunities like Spectrum Brands bonds. The team anticipates market excesses will eventually unwind, as every major technology hype cycle has been followed by material corrections. They emphasize maintaining discipline and avoiding the temptation to chase speculative momentum.
Focus Wealth Management maintains a disciplined approach centered on owning high-quality businesses with strong cash flows while avoiding the current market excess driven by AI hype and concentration in large-cap technology stocks.
The team remains confident in the businesses and investments owned, and selective in opportunities pursued. This is the point in the cycle when those who fare best are the ones who anticipate temptation and prepare for it in advance. The manager expects very muted equity returns from current levels and emphasizes this is not the moment to chase the crowd, but rather to win elsewhere and ensure discipline is maintained.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BNS.TO, DRX.L, JWEL.TO, RY.TO, SPB | AI, Bubble, Canada, diversification, gold, Quality, technology, Valuations |
JWEL CN DRX LN SPB |
AI-related companies led market gains in 2025, creating froth and excess in valuations. The current AI hype cycle parallels the late 1990s tech bubble, with… |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Concentration, Private assets, small caps, valuation | - | Focus warns of extreme market valuations and concentration risk, drawing parallels to prior speculative cycles. While AI offers transformative potential, the letter cautions against assuming… |
| Jul 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | dislocation, diversification, geopolitics, risk, Valuations | - | The commentary describes a market environment characterized by surface-level calm masking deeper geopolitical, fiscal, and valuation risks. Despite resilient portfolio performance, the manager warns that… |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 15 2024 | 2024 Q2 | COST | - | - | - |
| Apr 24 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 29 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 24 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
ValuationsEquity valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 trading near 23x forward earnings, well above its long-term average of 15.6x. High valuations may increase market sensitivity to earnings disappointments and tend to constrain longer-term returns, reinforcing the importance of selectivity. |
Multiples Premium Earnings Risk Selectivity | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
| 2025 Q2 |
Dislocation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jeff Hales | JWEL CN | Jamieson Wellness Inc. | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Branded Supplements, cash flow, Consumer-health, International Growth, Recurring Demand | Login |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jeff Hales | DRX LN | Drax Group plc | Utilities | Electric Utilities | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | data centers, Dispatchable Power, Energy security, Free Cash Flow, valuation | Login |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jeff Hales | SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Household Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | balance sheet, Consumer products, Cyclical Recovery, essential goods, Free Cash Flow | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BNS.TO | four of our holdings in the financials sector (TD, RBC, Scotiabank, and Manulife) posted strong stock performance on the back of stronger-than-expected earnings due to solid net interest income, resilient credit quality, healthy capital markets, and wealth-management fees |
| DRX.L | Drax Group plc is a UK-based power generation company that plays an important but often overlooked role in Britain's energy system. Drax operates one of the UK's largest power stations and currently supplies roughly 6–7% of the country's electricity. Despite this, Drax trades at a low valuation—about 6.5x earnings—and offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.4%. The business generates significant free cash flow and is expected to produce roughly £3 billion by 2031, compared to a current market value of about £2.7 billion. |
| JWEL.TO | Jamieson Wellness is one of Canada's leading producers of vitamins, minerals, and nutritional supplements. Over the last five years, the company has expanded internationally, doubling both revenue and EBITDA. The U.S. and China now account for nearly half of Jamieson business. While Jamieson does not attract attention during speculative market phases, it generates consistent cash flow and compounds value steadily over time. |
| RY.TO | The Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank, with operations across North America and globally and a workforce of more than 100,000 employees. The bank has a leading position in Canadian retail and commercial banking and multiple levers for organic growth. We expect continued acceleration in core business drivers, execution on key growth initiatives, and a supportive housing backdrop to drive resilient earnings growth and sustain dividend growth. |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings is a consumer products company focused on pet care, home & garden, and home & personal care (HPC). The company faced challenges in 2025 that now appear largely behind it, and we expect SPB to return to growth this year. There is also potential for the company to realize proceeds from a divestiture of its HPC segment, which we believe the market currently values at zero. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||