| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
GDS Investments' April 2026 letter addresses the ongoing Iran conflict's economic implications and broader geopolitical shifts under the Trump Administration. The war has driven oil prices up over 50% from under $70 to over $110 for WTI crude, creating supply shocks that compound costs across industries. Manager views this as separating stronger businesses from weaker ones, expecting portfolio companies to navigate pressures more effectively than competitors. The letter highlights a concerning shift in international relations, with limited allied support demonstrating consequences of the Administration's coercive approach. Rising Treasury yields from 4% to 4.45% reflect investor concerns about inflation and geopolitical risk. Portfolio positioning benefits from January-February rebalancing that improved quality and risk profiles. The manager discusses Rivian positively, noting Uber's $1.25 billion robotaxi investment as validating multiple monetization pathways. Outlook expects continued episodic disruptions until significant political change, likely post-midterms or 2028, with elevated volatility persisting even if recession is avoided.
Focus on high-quality companies with strong competitive positions that can navigate external shocks better than peers while maintaining disciplined capital allocation in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
Manager expects continued episodic disruptions with economic consequences until there is a significant political shift, likely after midterms or 2028. Even if recession is avoided, volatility will remain elevated and prices will likely continue rising. Behind-the-scenes efforts to resolve the Iran conflict are expected, accompanied by narratives framing any outcome as success.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 2026 | 2026 Q1 | RIVN, UBER | Electric Vehicles, Geopolitical, Iran, oil, portfolio, risk management | RIVN | GDS Investments navigates Iran conflict fallout with oil up 50% and Treasury yields rising to 4.45%. Portfolio positioned for volatility after Q1 rebalancing, focusing on quality companies that outperform during external shocks. Bullish on Rivian following Uber's $1.25B robotaxi deal. Expects continued geopolitical disruptions until political landscape shifts post-midterms or 2028. |
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ABNB, AMZN, CRWV, DEO, F, GE, GM, GOOGL, LEN, NVO, ORCL, RIVN, STZ, TDW, TREX, VAL, WMT, ZTS | AI, Buybacks, cyclicals, Electric Vehicles, Quality, Rotation, technology, value |
GOOG AMZN TREX RIVN |
Surowiec positions for market rotation from AI speculation to traditional value, maintaining diversified mega-cap anchors while building cyclically depressed quality businesses with strong buyback programs. Rivian leads as the most exciting position with proprietary technology development. Economic fragility persists beneath AI-driven headline strength, but early rotation signals support the patient value strategy targeting durable cash flows over speculative promises. |
| Oct 11 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMZN, RIVN, WMT | Business, CEOs, Electric Vehicles, Government, Markets, policy, regulation, tariffs | - | Surowiec highlights Yale CEO survey showing widespread business harm from tariff policies and regulatory overreach. Investment focus remains on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive moats capable of adapting to policy uncertainty. Portfolio includes EV exposure via Rivian addition while maintaining large-cap positions in Walmart and Amazon for their scale advantages in navigating disruption. |
| Jul 13 2025 | 2025 Q2 | NVO, RIVN, STZ | fundamentals, inflation, Macro, Quality, rates, value | - | Surowiec argues company fundamentals trump macro conditions despite higher rates and inflation creating headwinds. Strong businesses with moats and balance sheet strength navigate all environments. Recent turmoil created entry points for quality companies like Rivian, Constellation Brands, and Novo Nordisk at attractive valuations. Core value investing principles remain unchanged despite shifting structural conditions. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AMZN, F, GOOGL, JPM, RIVN, SHEL, SLB, STZ, TDW, TSLA, VAL | Electric Vehicles, oil, Politics, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy, uncertainty, value |
GOOGL AMZN TDW VAL SLB RIVN STZ |
Trump's tariff policies triggered 12% market decline but create value opportunities for patient investors. Manager maintains positions in capital-light businesses like Google/Amazon and cyclical oil investments while adding recession-resistant Constellation Brands. Believes Trump is overplaying his hand and expects 2026 midterm backlash to drive policy changes. Views current turmoil as major inflection point favoring disciplined value investors. |
| Oct 13 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABNB, GE, HD, NKE | consumer, Leadership, management, technology, value |
NKE ABNB NKE ABNB |
GDS Investments emphasizes the critical role of CEO leadership in company performance, highlighting Nike's positive CEO transition from outsider John Donahoe to company veteran Elliott Hill. The firm owns both Nike and Airbnb as examples of quality companies with strong leadership trading at attractive valuations, maintaining their disciplined value approach regardless of political outcomes. |
| Jul 2 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | large cap, long-term, Quality, Trade Policy, US, value | - | Front Street maintains a 37-year quality-focused approach, owning the best-managed US companies based on rigorous management criteria. They view economic dislocations like tariffs as opportunities for superior companies to outperform through adaptability. Despite acknowledging inflationary risks from trade policy, they remain confident in their proven process to compound wealth over decades. |
| Apr 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BRK-A | Discipline, Focus, long-term, Quality, value | - | Front Street/Tarkio advocates focusing on knowable business fundamentals over unpredictable macro events. They invest in companies with sustainable competitive advantages and employee empowerment cultures, believing this disciplined approach compounds capital reliably while promoting societal good. Drawing from Graham and Buffett's philosophy, they maintain narrow focus and express strong confidence in future prospects after forty-plus years of refinement. |
| Jan 22 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | AI, fixed income, international, risk management, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Horizon navigated Q2 2025's extreme volatility through active risk management, de-risking during April's tariff-induced selloff then re-investing during the subsequent recovery. The firm tactically shifted between domestic and international exposures, growth and value tilts, and credit risk levels based on evolving market conditions, demonstrating systematic approach to volatile environments. |
| Oct 25 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMG, CHTR, DOCN, FLEX, GOOGL, KMX, LOPE, NFLX, NOMD, TGT, TMO | financials, healthcare, multi-cap, Quality, small caps, value | - | City Different's Multi-Cap Core strategy lagged the S&P 500 in Q3 due to momentum-driven markets favoring speculative growth names they avoid. Mid-caps were the primary drag. Despite quarterly underperformance, the strategy leads year-to-date and maintains its balanced life-cycle approach across market caps, selling Digital Ocean to fund higher conviction ideas. |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZJ.AX, CABK.MC, CIP.AX, COL.AX, CS1.AX, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, LLOY.L, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NST.AX, QUB.AX, TECK, WYNN | AI, Banking, commodities, Copper, Europe, gold, Macau, Onshoring, value | - | PM Capital's value-driven approach delivered strong Q3 results through exposure to undervalued commodities and European banks. Gold and copper holdings benefited from supply disruptions and record prices while European banks continued re-rating on improving fundamentals. The manager maintains contrarian positioning in quality businesses at attractive valuations, avoiding overvalued growth themes despite market enthusiasm. |
| May 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, A91.L, BIRG.I, CABK.MC, CGF.AX, CRN.AX, CSTCF, DGE.L, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GQG.AX, HEIA.AS, INGA.AS, LLOY.L, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NEM.AX, NEX.PA, QUB.AX, RI.PA, SAN.PA, SHEL.L, SIE.DE, SPEC.L, TECK.TO, VK.PA, WOW.AX, WYNN | commodities, Copper, defense, European Banks, gaming, gold, Onshoring, tariffs |
SIE.DE FCX |
PM Capital delivered 8.1% quarterly returns driven by European banks and commodities themes. European banks like AIB Group and Lloyds significantly outperformed on infrastructure spending expectations, trading at deep discounts to peers. Commodity holdings Newmont and Freeport rallied on geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. The Great Decoupling between US-China creates reshoring opportunities favoring Siemens and domestic copper producers. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilThe Iran conflict has caused oil prices to surge over 50% from under $70 to over $110 for WTI crude, with some grades reaching $150. The Strait of Hormuz shutdown creates a global supply shock affecting transportation and manufacturing costs across industries. |
Oil Energy Geopolitical Supply Inflation |
GeopoliticalThe ongoing Iran war represents a broader shift in global dynamics as the Trump Administration experiments with upending the post-WWII international order. Limited international support demonstrates the consequences of a more coercive, transactional approach to allies. |
Geopolitical Iran International Conflict Allies | |
Electric VehiclesUber's $1.25 billion investment in Rivian for 10,000 robotaxis using the R2 model reinforces multiple monetization pathways for Rivian's platform as autonomous and mobility ecosystems evolve. This highlights the optionality in Rivian's business model. |
Electric Vehicles Autonomous Mobility Robotaxis Platform | |
RatesThe 10-year Treasury yield has moved sharply higher from under 4% to roughly 4.45% as investors price in higher inflation, geopolitical risk, and increased fiscal spending. Higher yields make prolonged conflict financing more expensive and tighten financial conditions. |
Rates Treasury Inflation Credit Financing | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AfricaFund delivered exceptional performance with 67.21% returns in 2025, significantly outperforming the 44.7% benchmark. Portfolio companies show strong fundamentals with forward PE of 6.1x, dividend yield of 8.0%, and expected EPS growth of 19.2%. Manager emphasizes that valuations remain attractive despite strong performance, with no multiple expansion driving returns. |
Frontier Markets Emerging Markets Equities Value Growth |
LiquidityManager provides detailed analysis of liquidity challenges in African frontier markets, noting structural factors including foreign investor participation, local retail involvement, and institutional buy-and-hold behavior. Acknowledges liquidity constraints but theorizes that bull market conditions should improve trading volumes and market participation. |
Market Structure Trading Institutional Foreign Investment | |
Capital MarketsDiscussion of African capital market development including recent IPO activity in Nigeria, privatization efforts in Kenya, and proliferation of new investment products in Tanzania. Manager notes structural tailwinds from growing pension savings pools and young demographics providing future equity demand. |
IPOs Privatization Market Development Demographics | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Trade PolicyThe administration's tariff scheme has harmed 70% of businesses according to a Yale CEO survey. Policy formulation without private sector consultation creates uncertainty and costs that affect pricing, inventory, capex, and hiring decisions. Companies face difficult tradeoffs between raising prices, eating costs, or exiting business lines. |
Tariffs Policy Business Costs Uncertainty |
Industrial PolicyThe Trump Administration is increasingly dictating to the private sector and blurring lines between capitalism and socialism by picking winners and losers through the regulatory state. This creates a dynamic where business success depends more on political favors than innovation and competency. |
Regulation Government Winners Losers Capitalism | |
Electric VehiclesThe auto industry faces an inevitable and accelerating electric transition. EV penetration is expected to rise meaningfully over the next cycle, with firms like Rivian well positioned to capitalize on this shift as a relatively recent portfolio addition. |
EV Transition Penetration Auto Rivian | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes focusing on company-specific fundamentals rather than macro conditions, arguing that strong businesses can perform in all economic environments. Recent market turmoil has created compelling entry points for high-quality companies trading at significant discounts. |
Value Fundamentals Discounts Entry Points Quality |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's newly announced global tariffs are being poorly received by markets, causing a 12% decline in five days. The tariffs are based on flawed math and misunderstanding of trade deficits, will ultimately raise costs for consumers and businesses, and slow economic growth. The implementation creates uncertainty that makes long-term business investments harder to justify. |
Tariffs Trade Protectionism Inflation Policy |
OilHolding new oil and gas investments including Tidewater, Valaris, and Schlumberger positioned favorably in the capital cycle. These companies have gone through significant balance sheet restructuring and are poised to do disproportionately well when the cycle returns, while competitors like Shell have redirected capex away from offshore drilling. |
Offshore Drilling Cycle Restructuring Energy | |
Electric VehiclesMaintaining small position in Rivian Automotive, which offers ideal domestic production scenario amid tariff environment. The company has shrewd leadership, attractive balance sheet, and partnership with Volkswagen for software platforms. Well positioned to capture customers from Tesla's declining value, with upcoming 2026 R2 model potentially being a gamechanger at competitive pricing. |
Domestic Software Tesla Competition Pricing | |
ValueDespite market turmoil, maintaining commitment to value-oriented approach. Warren Buffett is the only billionaire to grow wealth in 2025, adding $12.7B while others lost billions. Economic downturns can serve as crucibles of opportunity for value investors who have patience, conviction, and emotional intelligence to own what is currently out of favor. |
Buffett Opportunity Patience Contrarian Downturn | |
| 2024 Q3 |
LeadershipThe letter extensively discusses CEO leadership changes at Nike and their impact on company performance. It analyzes how cultural fit and understanding of company mission affects CEO success, contrasting insider versus outsider leadership appointments. The discussion emphasizes the importance of leaders who understand the fabric of their brands beyond spreadsheet metrics. |
CEO Management Culture Succession Turnaround |
| 2024 Q2 |
QualityThe fund focuses on identifying the best-managed companies according to specific criteria including humility, integrity, trust, long-term focus, purpose and passion, teamwork, employee empowerment, and disciplined capital allocation. These criteria have been their north star for 38 years, with the process compounding over decades. |
Management Leadership Culture Capital Allocation Long-term |
Trade PolicyThe manager discusses tariffs as economic dislocations that provide opportunities for their companies to gain advantages over peers due to their superior adaptability. Tariffs will mean higher prices and potentially higher interest rates, creating an inflationary environment with declining bond prices. |
Tariffs Inflation Interest Rates Economic Policy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
QualityThe fund focuses on identifying and partnering with companies that create empowering and collaborative work environments for employees. They believe supporting great employee empowerment companies is their most reliable way to compound capital at meaningful rates over long periods while doing good for society. |
Employee Empowerment Workplace Culture Human Potential Collaborative |
| 2023 Q4 |
Risk AppetiteThe quarter was characterized by extreme volatility as investors rapidly adjusted risk appetite in response to tariff announcements and subsequent market recovery. Risk Assist algorithm was very active, first aggressively de-risking in early April then re-investing as market trends reversed higher. |
Volatility De-risking Risk Management Market Timing Drawdown |
Trade PolicyMuch larger-than-expected tariffs announced on April 2 caused extreme market volatility similar to Covid-19 and Global Financial Crisis experiences. Investors braced for anticipated recession due to tariff impact, leading to sharp sell-off before reversal. |
Tariffs Trade War Policy Risk Economic Impact | |
AIAI theme saw volatile performance with concentrated AI exposures in software and semiconductors contributing least to performance initially. Strategy later shifted more exposure toward select areas of AI theme, particularly software and communication services, as market sentiment improved. |
Software Semiconductors Technology Growth | |
| 2023 Q2 |
CopperPortfolio heavily weighted toward copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following supply disruptions at major mines. Several high-profile supply issues this year have shifted market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. |
Copper Miners Supply Disruption Deficit Industrial Metals |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% rise in gold price to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% over the period while Northern Star rallied 26%. Despite record gold prices, investor ownership of gold equities remains low with valuations still attractive and capital returns competitive. |
Gold Miners Record Prices Undervalued Capital Returns | |
BankingEuropean bank positions delivered strong results with steeper yield curve and growing confidence in infrastructure spending driving re-rating. Caixabank rose 22% yet still trades below 11 times earnings. Enhanced Yield Fund increased exposure to global banks including HSBC and Lloyds. |
European Banks Yield Curve Infrastructure Re-rating | |
AIMarket narratives increasingly driven by AI investment cycle, highlighted by partnerships among OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle. However, discussions of these themes rarely address valuation or return on invested capital, which the manager views as cautionary. |
Investment Cycle Partnerships Valuation Concerns | |
OnshoringUS reshoring and infrastructure investment identified as key megatrend driving market narratives alongside AI. Manager notes these themes are driving market focus but expresses caution about lack of valuation discipline in discussions. |
Infrastructure Investment Megatrend Market Narrative | |
| 2023 Q1 |
European UnionEuropean banks are significantly undervalued relative to US and Australian peers. Rising infrastructure and defense spending in Europe will stimulate industrial activity and credit demand. A reviving European economy could create jobs and boost anaemic credit growth, aiding European banks. |
Banking Infrastructure Defense Credit Valuation |
CommoditiesUnderinvestment in resource projects will constrain commodity supply, supporting higher metal prices. President Trump is using commodities as bargaining chips for trade concessions. These artificial barriers coincide with decades of global underinvestment and new drivers from the transition to renewables. |
Copper Gold Supply Trade Renewables | |
OnshoringThe COVID-19 pandemic encouraged multinationals to increase manufacturing at home to reduce global supply chain risks. President Trump wants more manufacturing to return to the US and his use of tariffs could accelerate global reshoring. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Tariffs Automation Factory | |
GamingMacau casinos faced pressure due to investor concerns about US tariffs on China potentially impacting Macau activity. The sector rebounded in June driven by improved Macau gaming data and tourism recovery. |
Macau Tourism Recovery Casinos China |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | RIVN | Rivian Automotive Inc | Auto Manufacturers | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | NASDAQ | automotive, autonomous vehicles, Electric Vehicles, growth, Mobility Platform, Partnership, robotaxis, technology platform | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Glenn D. Surowiec | TREX | Trex Company Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | balance sheet, buybacks, composite decking, housing cycle, market share, ROIC | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Glenn D. Surowiec | RIVN | Rivian Automotive Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | NASDAQ | Autonomy Platform, Electric Vehicles, Manufacturing Scale, Partnerships, Software Stack, vertical integration | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Glenn D. Surowiec | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI Enhancement, cloud, competitive moat, Search Dominance, YouTube | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Glenn D. Surowiec | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | AWS, capital expenditure, Cloud computing, diversification, Logistics Automation, operating leverage | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Capital-light, consumer, defensive, e-commerce, efficiency, innovation, platform | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | SLB | SLB | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | Capital Cycle, Cyclical, energy, Oil Services, restructuring, technology, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | STZ | Constellation Brands Inc. | Consumer Staples | Distillers & Vintners | Bull | NYSE | alcoholic beverages, Berkshire validation, consumer staples, defensive, Recession-resistant, Well-managed | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | VAL | Valaris Limited | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Capital Cycle, Cyclical, Drilling contractor, energy, offshore drilling, restructuring, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Capital Cycle, Cyclical, energy, Marine services, offshore drilling, restructuring, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | RIVN | Rivian Automotive Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | NASDAQ | automotive, domestic production, Electric Vehicles, growth, Software, technology, Tesla alternative | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Capital-light, defensive, efficiency, innovation, platform, Tariff-resistant, technology | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | SIE.DE | Siemens AG | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | XETRA | Digitization, Factory Automation, Germany, Industrial technology, Industrials, manufacturing, Reshoring | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc | Materials | Copper | Bull | NYSE | Commodity Scarcity, Copper, domestic production, materials, Mining, strategic assets, US | Login |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | NKE | Nike Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | NYSE | athletic apparel, Brand, CEO transition, Consumer Discretionary, Footwear, Leadership Change, retail, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | ABNB | Airbnb Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | asset-light, growth, hospitality, international expansion, marketplace, platform, technology, Travel, Two-Sided Market | Login |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | NKE | Nike Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | NYSE | athletic apparel, Brand, CEO transition, Consumer Discretionary, Footwear, Leadership Change, retail, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | GDS Investments | ABNB | Airbnb Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | asset-light, growth, hospitality, international expansion, marketplace, platform, technology, Travel, Two-Sided Market | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| RIVN | Uber recently agreed to invest $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031 in exchange for 10,000 robotaxis using Rivian's R2 model. We view this deal as reinforcing the idea that Rivian's platform has multiple potential pathways to monetization over time, particularly as autonomous and mobility ecosystems continue to evolve. While there is still significant execution ahead, developments like this highlight the optionality inherent in Rivian's business and the range of outcomes that could emerge over the next several years. |
| UBER | Uber recently agreed to invest $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031 in exchange for 10,000 robotaxis using Rivian's R2 model. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
