| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -13.3% | 12.6% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 12.6% |
Ghosh Capital delivered 36.8% returns since inception in June 2024 versus 29.1% for the S&P 500, but suffered a difficult Q4 2025 with -13.3% returns versus +2.6% for the index. The underperformance stemmed from concentration risk and options leverage mistakes. The portfolio's 30% position in Kneat, a SaaS company, experienced a 35% drawdown due to weak Q2/Q3 results where net new ARR came in below expectations from macro headwinds and deal delays. Additionally, the manager used long-dated options on Wix and Clearwater Analytics for leverage but sold both positions at losses due to volatility concerns, missing Clearwater's subsequent buyout. Key lessons include implementing strict position sizing limits regardless of conviction, avoiding quality compromises when hunting for cheap names, and using options sparingly. Despite setbacks, Kneat ended 2025 with record strategic customer wins, positioning for recovery in 2026-2027 as the company approaches $90M ARR with strong customer retention and expanding contracts.
Focus on high-conviction concentrated positions in undervalued technology companies while implementing strict risk management rules around position sizing and leverage to avoid the concentration and options-related losses experienced in Q4 2025.
Manager expects 2026 to see recovery in Kneat stock price as company marches towards $90M ARR. The highest number of new strategic customer wins in company history during 2025 should drive sustained higher growth in 2026 and 2027 as initial small contracts expand significantly over time.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AEM, APH, AVGO, CWAN, GOOGL, HOOD, MSFT, MU, NVDA, RHM.DE, SII, WIX | Concentration, Leverage, Options, risk management, SaaS, technology, value |
KSI CN WIX |
Ghosh Capital's 37% since-inception outperformance was dented by Q4 concentration and leverage mistakes. A 30% Kneat position and options leverage on speculative names led to significant losses. Manager learned hard lessons about position sizing and risk management. Kneat's record customer wins in 2025 set up potential recovery as ARR growth accelerates in 2026-2027. |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, APH, ASTS, AVGO, BA, CSU.TO, GOOGL, GSAT, HOOD, KNEAT.TO, LMT, MDA.TO, MELI, MSFT, NU, RHM.DE, RKLB, SATS, TOI.TO, V | AI, Canada, global, Satellites, Space, technology, value |
MDA CN TOI.TO MELI KNEA.TO GOOGL MDA.TO |
Strong Q2 performance driven by defensive cash positioning that enabled opportunistic buying during April selloff. Portfolio focused on global valuation discrepancies in quality businesses, with top holdings in Kneat, Google, and MDA Space. Deep dive on MDA Space highlights attractive space sector opportunities trading at significant discounts to US peers despite superior operating history and profitability. |
| Apr 2 2025 | 2025 Q1 | APH, CBZ, COST, CSU.TO, ETL.PA, GOOGL, HOOD, HRB, KNT.L, KPG.AX, MDA.TO, MELI, MNDY, PNG.TO, RELY, RHM.DE, SPGI, TEAM, TOI.TO, VIE.PA | defense, growth, infrastructure, Nationalism, small caps, Valuations, value | KPG.AX | Ghosh Capital delivered 8.0% returns in Q1 2025 by staying nimble in volatile markets where valuations matter again. The fund capitalized on defense and infrastructure spending themes driven by global nationalist policies while finding attractive small cap opportunities. Cash management from 20% to 45% and back enabled opportunistic deployment into quality growth companies at reasonable valuations. |
| Jan 3 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ADBE, AMD, ASML, BRZE, CRWD, CSU.TO, GOOGL, HOOD, KPG.AX, KSI.TO, MELI, MU, NVDA, SPGI, TEAM, V, WDAY | AI, Cloud, compounders, Concentration, growth, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Ghosh Capital delivered 11.8% in Q4 by betting against market polarization, finding mispriced quality businesses dismissed by filter bubbles. Key winners included Alphabet, Atlassian, and Nvidia. The strategy combines stable compounders with active trading of dislocated growth names. Portfolio expanded from concentrated positions to 20 holdings as opportunities normalized. Expects volatile 2025 with new dislocation opportunities. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
SoftwareKneat, a software company, represents 30% of the portfolio despite rough Q2 and Q3 results where net new ARR came in below expectations due to macro headwinds and delayed deals. The manager maintains conviction in Kneat's long-term prospects, expecting recovery in 2026 as the company marches toward $90M ARR with strong customer retention and improving cash flow. |
SaaS ARR Enterprise Software |
AIThe manager discusses AI-native assets through Wix's acquisition of Base44, which was becoming one of the fastest growing $0-100M ARR 'vibe-coding' apps. However, the market focused negatively on gross margin compression from running unoptimized AI models rather than recognizing the growth potential of the AI coding platform. |
Coding Platforms Margins | |
GoldSprott and Agnico Eagle were small position sizes that delivered outsized returns given the strong performance of gold and silver in the quarter. These precious metals positions were among the biggest gains for the portfolio despite their small allocation. |
Precious Metals Mining | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SpaceDeep dive on MDA Space, a 56-year-old Canadian space technology company building satellites, space robotics, and providing geointelligence. The company trades at attractive valuations compared to US space peers despite having longer operating history and actual profitability. Major growth drivers include large constellation wins for Globalstar and Telesat. |
Satellites Robotics Defense Constellation Geointelligence |
AIGoogle's AI mode is being ignored by investors despite creating delightful experiences for everyday users. The manager sees this as a classic Silicon Valley Filter Bubble situation where the market is missing the real adoption happening outside tech circles. |
Google Search Technology Adoption | |
ValuePortfolio focused on valuation discrepancies in high quality businesses, particularly finding attractive opportunities outside the US when stretched valuations made domestic markets less compelling. This bottoms-up approach led to global diversification based on relative value. |
Valuation Quality Discrepancy Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Defense SpendingCountries like Canada and Europe are taking defense seriously due to Trump's policies requiring more global defense contributions. This creates a wall of money for consistent defense spending as nationalist policies spread worldwide. |
Defense Nationalism Government Spending Geopolitics Military |
Infrastructure SpendingSecond-order effect of nationalist policies driving infrastructure investment. France announced plug baby plug policies, benefiting waste management and satellite companies as Europe reduces reliance on US infrastructure like Starlink. |
Infrastructure Nationalism Government Investment Independence Satellites | |
Small CapsManager finding fewer dislocations in medium to large caps but plenty in small caps. Small cap land offers venture-like investing opportunities in public markets with quality business models under $1B valuations. |
Small Cap Dislocations Venture Quality Valuations | |
ValueFocus on valuations mattering again with examples like Costco at 60x PE being overvalued despite business quality. Manager emphasizes relative and absolute valuation discipline in deployment decisions. |
Valuations Value Investing Discipline Multiples Quality | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI as a key investment theme, highlighting Alphabet's decades of AI research leadership and Sergey's return to work on AI. Notes that AI-enabled search over Jira and Confluence represents perfect GenAI use cases for B2B settings. Views Adobe's video generation capabilities and AI tooling as underappreciated by the market. |
Artificial Intelligence GenAI Search Video Generation B2B |
CloudManager emphasizes cloud transition as a key driver, particularly for Atlassian where AI-enabled features are only accessible through cloud products. Views the cloud migration as enabling better AI integration and functionality for enterprise software companies. |
Cloud Migration Enterprise Software SaaS B2B AI Integration | |
SemiconductorsManager highlights memory semiconductors, specifically HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as the biggest market shift memory has ever seen. Notes Samsung has completely missed the boat while Micron and SK Hynix are positioned well, drawing parallels to the Nvidia/AMD dynamic in GPUs. |
Memory HBM GPU Semiconductor Cycle Market Share |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | Fund Letters | Shomik Ghosh | WIX | Wix.com Ltd | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, Margins, Options, Software, valuation | Login |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Fund Letters | Shomik Ghosh | KSI CN | kneat.com inc | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | ARR, Retention, SaaS, Software, undervaluation | Login |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Shomik Ghosh | MDA CN | MDA Space Ltd. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | TSX | backlog, Constellations, Geointelligence, robotics, Satellites, Space, valuation | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | MDA.TO | MDA Space | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | TSX | Aerospace, Canada, Defense, Geointelligence, geopolitical, government contracts, recurring revenue, Satellites, Space Robotics, valuation discount | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | GOOGL | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, contrarian, healthcare, Mainstream Adoption, Narrative Disconnect, Search, Silicon Valley, User Experience | Login | |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | TOI.TO | Topicus | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | TSX | Acquisitions, Canada, capital allocation, FCF yield, growth, Software, spinoff, Vertical SaaS | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | KNEA.TO | Kneat | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | TSX | ARR, Canada, Distribution, life sciences, platform, Regulated Industries, valuation arbitrage, Vertical SaaS | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | MELI | MercadoLibre | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Brazil, e-commerce, FCF yield, Fintech, growth, Latin America, market inefficiency, Tariff Resilient | Login |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ghosh Capital | KPG.AX | Kelly Partners Group | Commercial & Professional Services | Professional Services | Bull | ASX | Accounting, Australia, compounder, Equity, Fragmented Industry, High retention, M&A, network effects, professional services, Recession-resistant, Roll-up, small-cap, Tax Services | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AEM | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| APH | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| AVGO | Coming off of several large contrarian bets that played out well like Google, Micron, Nvidia/Broadcom during Deepseek selloff, aggressively adding at the April lows during the tariff selloff, I was feeling good about buying stocks out of favor by the market and started to reach into more speculative areas. |
| CWAN | Wix and Clearwater Analytics were the two offenders here. In neither of them, did I have very high conviction on the business models. I just thought they were too cheap for assets the market was missing. With Clearwater, the market was overly focused on the debt and large acquisitions while missing how core Clearwater was growing strongly still and had a tailwind from rate cuts. Clearwater Analytics ended getting bought out and would've netted me a large gain but in the meantime due to the size of the position I took and the options leverage, the weak performance was causing me to question my conviction until I decided to sell my position for a 30% loss, 2 weeks before the buyout news came through. However, for those interested in hearing my Clearwater Analytics thesis, Andrew Walker had me on the Yet Another Value Podcast to talk publicly about it. With the buyout news pending, it has risen 30%+ in 3 months. Alas, I did not participate in any of the upside due to what I discussed above in the letter. |
| GOOGL | Coming off of several large contrarian bets that played out well like Google, Micron, Nvidia/Broadcom during Deepseek selloff, aggressively adding at the April lows during the tariff selloff, I was feeling good about buying stocks out of favor by the market and started to reach into more speculative areas. My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle. |
| HOOD | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| MSFT | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| MU | Coming off of several large contrarian bets that played out well like Google, Micron, Nvidia/Broadcom during Deepseek selloff, aggressively adding at the April lows during the tariff selloff, I was feeling good about buying stocks out of favor by the market and started to reach into more speculative areas. |
| NVDA | Coming off of several large contrarian bets that played out well like Google, Micron, Nvidia/Broadcom during Deepseek selloff, aggressively adding at the April lows during the tariff selloff, I was feeling good about buying stocks out of favor by the market and started to reach into more speculative areas. |
| RHM.DE | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| SII | My biggest gains came from Google, Robinhood, Amphenol, Microsoft, Rheinmettal, Sprott, and Agnico Eagle (the last two are precious metals positions that were small position sizes but delivered outsized returns given the performance of Gold and Silver in the quarter). |
| WIX | Wix and Clearwater Analytics were the two offenders here. In neither of them, did I have very high conviction on the business models. I just thought they were too cheap for assets the market was missing. Wix had bought Base44 which was becoming one of the fastest growing $0-100M ARR "vibe-coding" apps. While Lovable, Replit and others kept getting higher valuations in the private markets, Wix was trading at a 6% FCF yield and had an AI native asset that was growing like a weed. On Wix, I just completely misjudged how the market would look at the outperformance of Base44 (gross margins are getting hit because running AI models without optimizing them for cost is lower than software margins). Because of the position sizing and options position, I once again sold for a loss rather than re-assess my position as the risk of total loss was too large for me. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
