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This Fall 2025 edition of Graham & Doddsville showcases the enduring relevance of value investing principles through interviews with seasoned practitioners and student investment pitches. Brandes Investment Partners demonstrates unwavering commitment to pure value philosophy, having maintained discipline through 165 months of underperformance while building positions in luxury goods, banking, and specialty retail. Giverny Capital's David Poppe emphasizes quality-first investing, positioning for AI through infrastructure plays like Taiwan Semiconductor and AAON while maintaining long-term holdings in Arista Networks and Progressive. The publication highlights emerging market opportunities, particularly in fintech infrastructure with companies like dLocal and MercadoLibre capitalizing on digital adoption in Latin America. Student pitches demonstrate sophisticated analysis across sectors from automotive aftermarket to water heaters, reflecting strong fundamental research capabilities. Despite market concentration in mega-cap technology stocks, the featured investors maintain conviction that patient capital deployed in high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages will generate superior long-term returns. The emphasis on management quality, capital allocation discipline, and contrarian positioning reflects classic value investing tenets adapted for modern markets.
Value investing principles remain sound despite recent underperformance, with opportunities emerging in high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, particularly in AI infrastructure, emerging market fintech, and companies with strong data analytics capabilities.
The publication reflects cautious optimism about value investing opportunities, with multiple managers expressing confidence in their long-term approach despite recent underperformance relative to growth strategies. There is particular enthusiasm for AI-related infrastructure investments, emerging market opportunities, and high-quality businesses trading at reasonable valuations.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAON, AAP, ANET, AOS, ASTS, CVNA, DLO, FEVR.L, GOOGL, KER.PA, MELI, META, NLB.L, PGR, RKLB, TBCG.L, TSM, WISE.L, WOSG.L, XPEL | AI, emerging markets, Investment Analysis, long-term, Portfolio Management, Quality, Student Pitches, Value Investing | - | Graham & Doddsville Fall 2025 reinforces value investing fundamentals through practitioner interviews and student pitches. Featured managers maintain discipline despite growth stock outperformance, positioning in AI infrastructure, emerging market fintech, and quality businesses with competitive advantages. Strong emphasis on long-term ownership, management quality, and contrarian opportunities across global markets from luxury goods to Latin American e-commerce platforms. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | NVDA | AI, Bonds, Buybacks, Dollar, emerging markets, government debt, inflation, technology | - | Global markets rally amid inflationary boom driven by loose policies and AI mania, with Nvidia exemplifying technology bubble dynamics. Deteriorating government finances threaten bonds while dollar weakness stimulates emerging markets. Despite overvaluation risks and market complacency, unattractive alternatives in bonds and cash force continued equity investment where strong earnings support further gains. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, GLXY.TO, GOOGL, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, SOXX, V, VOO | AI, Fed policy, global, large cap, rates, semiconductors, technology | - | Alpine Capital maintains conviction in AI infrastructure beneficiaries despite bubble concerns, executing strategic rotations in semiconductors while holding concentrated positions. Fed rate cuts and supportive policy create favorable conditions for risk assets. The manager emphasizes patient capital and low turnover as keys to outperformance, expecting continued upside momentum with structural bearishness unlikely given robust economic fundamentals. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Fed policy, inflation, Markets, sector rotation, Trade Policy | - | Markets surged in Q2 2025 with S&P 500 up 10.2% and NASDAQ gaining 16.7%, driven by cooling inflation and tech sector outperformance. Trade policy shifts created volatility but were viewed as manageable. Fed held rates steady while awaiting sustained inflation progress toward 2% target. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN | Capitalism, Geopolitical, global, South Africa, tariffs, technology, United States | - | Alpine Capital views Q1 2025 tariff-driven market volatility as temporary disruption rather than structural shift. Despite S&P 500's 4.3% decline, the firm maintains conviction in US capitalism and global technology leadership. South African exposure remains underweighted due to persistent outflows. Expects 2025 consolidation year but retains long-term optimism on American economic resilience and technology dominance. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMZN, GS, HCLTECH.NS, INFY, JPM, MSFT, ORCL, RR.L, TCS.NS, TECHM.NS, WMT | Capital markets, defense, domestic growth, India, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Gymkhana Partners capitalizes on India's domestic growth resilience despite U.S. trade tensions. The fund focuses on small-cap defense and industrial companies benefiting from indigenization policies, trading at attractive 14.8x forward earnings. Strong domestic investor flows and policy reforms support the thesis that India's consumer-driven economy will prosper regardless of external headwinds. |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2021 | 2021 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2021 | 2021 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2021 | 2021 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueMultiple interviews emphasize value investing principles, with Brandes Investment Partners maintaining pure value philosophy despite 165 months of underperformance following the global financial crisis. The publication showcases various value-oriented approaches from concentrated portfolios to systematic value investing strategies. |
Margin of safety Intrinsic value Undervaluation Contrarian Long-term |
AISeveral discussions focus on AI's transformative impact across industries. Giverny Capital positions for AI through Taiwan Semiconductor, AAON for data center cooling, and existing holdings in Arista Networks, Alphabet, and Meta that benefit from AI infrastructure and applications. |
Data centers Infrastructure Computing power Machine learning Technology | |
QualityEmphasis on investing in high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, strong returns on capital, and proven management teams. Giverny Capital focuses on companies with above-average earnings growth and returns on equity while maintaining long-term ownership periods. |
Competitive advantage Returns on capital Management quality Durability Moats | |
FintechMultiple investment ideas focus on financial technology, including dLocal as an emerging markets payments infrastructure provider, Wise's evolution from consumer-facing to platform business, and Mercado Pago's transition into a full financial platform in Latin America. |
Payments Digital banking Platform business Financial services Infrastructure | |
Emerging MarketsStrong focus on emerging market opportunities, particularly in payments infrastructure with dLocal, Georgian banking with TBC Bank, and Latin American e-commerce with MercadoLibre. These markets offer structural growth opportunities with lower penetration rates. |
Growth markets Digital adoption Infrastructure Underbanked Penetration | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIMarkets have become obsessed with AI leading to productivity and profitability surges since ChatGPT's release. The largest companies are investing gargantuan sums to secure AI advantages, driving extraordinary market cap increases like Nvidia's rise from $308 billion to $4.4 trillion in three years. Any disappointment on AI would leave markets vulnerable, particularly in the US. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Nvidia ChatGPT |
InflationGlobal markets are in a classic inflationary boom with loose fiscal and monetary conditions across all major economies. Every month over the last four years inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The return of inflation five years ago contributed to the worst ten-year rolling return from US Treasuries on record at minus 1.3%. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Central Banks Interest Rates Fiscal Policy | |
BuybacksS&P companies are generating excess cashflow and returning much of it to shareholders through share buybacks. Together with retail investor flows, $7-8 billion of liquidity flows into the US market daily. The S&P resembles a cash machine which recycles much of the cash it produces back into the market, creating perfect conditions for a bubble. |
Share Repurchases Cashflow Liquidity S&P 500 Bubble | |
DollarThe dollar continued to weaken and is now down 9.9% for the year, reflecting in gold's 47% rise year to date. The falling dollar is highly stimulative for Emerging Markets, encouraging investors into other parts of the world. The euro has gained 13.3% against the dollar this year as investors reweight to neglected areas. |
Currency Gold Emerging Markets Euro Devaluation | |
Credit StressGovernment debt has been ballooning with US National Debt exceeding $37 trillion, equivalent to about $279,000 per household. President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill will increase the US fiscal deficit by a further $3 trillion over the next decade. Both the UK and France have appalling debt profiles with chronic problems from entitlement spending and interest costs. |
Government Debt Fiscal Deficit Sovereign Risk Entitlements Default Risk | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIOrganizations must prioritize AI investments to avoid obsolescence, with hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft redirecting infrastructure spending toward AI initiatives. AI promises cost reductions and technological breakthroughs while displacing human labor and unlocking novel efficiencies. The current AI spending dynamic is backed by robust cash flows rather than debt, enabling sustained commitment and tremendous agility. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Technology Infrastructure |
SemiconductorsThe manager executed a rotation from Micron to the iShares Semiconductor ETF and added Lam Research, viewing the semiconductor sector as benefiting from AI infrastructure spending. While acknowledging some circular spending concerns within the broader semiconductor industry, these bubble worries are viewed as distant and not a pressing crisis. |
Semi Equipment Memory Technology AI | |
RatesThe Fed executed its first rate cut of the cycle in September to a 4.00%-4.25% range amid cooling inflation and rising unemployment concerns. Two additional 25bps cuts are anticipated this year, with the Fed pivoting focus from inflation to the labor market, creating a supportive environment for risk assets. |
Monetary Policy Inflation Central Banks Policy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Trade PolicyNewly imposed tariffs on select imports, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors, reshaped investor expectations. While these trade policy shifts introduced pockets of volatility, markets largely interpreted them as manageable and potentially stimulative to domestic production in the medium term. Businesses accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, contributing to a surge in imports. |
Tariffs Imports Trade |
InflationBoth the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index eased more than anticipated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a patient stance on interest rates. The CPI decreased by 0.1% in June 2024, marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. Core CPI rose by just 0.1% in June, the smallest increase since August 2021. |
CPI PPI Disinflation | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve opted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining the target range at 5.25% to 5.50%. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers require greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before considering any rate cuts. The Fed remains data-dependent on upcoming economic indicators. |
Fed Interest Rates Monetary Policy | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration tariff policies have created market disruption and operational paralysis across sectors. The rapid introduction, partial retraction, and reinstatement of tariffs has challenged market stability, though the manager supports addressing trade imbalances in principle. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Policy Manufacturing Retail |
United StatesThe US exemplifies the capitalist paradigm with the world's largest, most profitable corporations deriving substantial international revenue. American business culture prioritizes shareholder value, supported by extensive liquid financial markets and global talent attraction. |
Capitalism S&P 500 Technology Global Revenue Shareholder Value | |
South AfricaAlpine maintains underweighted allocations due to persistent capital outflows, political instability, and economic stagnation. The ZAR remains under pressure despite high real interest rates, with equity markets lacking catalysts despite attractive valuations. |
ZAR Capital Outflows Interest Rates Valuations Political Risk | |
| 2023 Q1 |
IndiaIndia is the world's fastest-growing major economy, on track to overtake Germany as the third-biggest by 2028. The economy shows resilience against U.S. tariffs due to its domestic consumer-driven growth model, with goods exports to the U.S. accounting for only 2.2% of GDP. India's buoyant economic growth, monetary policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and reformist governance were rewarded with an S&P sovereign credit rating upgrade. |
Domestic consumption Economic growth Sovereign rating Resilience GDP |
DefenseThe fund has increased exposure to defense/aerospace businesses, which now account for roughly 6% of capital. Companies are benefiting from the ongoing indigenization of India's defense/aerospace procurement. Examples include Airbus awarding Dynamatic Technologies one of the largest-ever aerospace export contracts won by an Indian company, and Rolls-Royce signing a long-term deal with Azad Engineering. |
Indigenization Aerospace Export contracts Defense electronics Manufacturing | |
Trade PolicyU.S. tariffs on Indian goods have escalated to 50% on categories including apparel, chemicals, and jewelry, though pharmaceuticals and electronics remain exempt. Mounting U.S. trade barriers have accelerated India's pursuit of free trade deals with other countries like the UK, UAE, and potentially the EU. The impact on India should be manageable given the small exposure to U.S. exports. |
Tariffs Free trade Export diversification Trade barriers Bilateral agreements | |
Capital MarketsIndian equities show resilience despite foreign institutional investor selling, attributed to relentless buying by domestic investors who now own 84% of publicly-traded shares. Indians pour billions into stocks monthly via systematic investment plans, and 2025 is shaping up to be a record year for Indian IPOs. Domestic capital markets are deepening significantly. |
Domestic investors Foreign selling IPOs Market flows Systematic investment |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| KER.PA | Kering has recently gone through a leadership transition with new CEO Luca de Meo, the first independent CEO in Kering's history. We see a company that historically operated at lower revenue levels than our recovery scenario and achieved margins of 30% to 40% at the Gucci level; margins at the time we purchased it were significantly below that. |
| WOSG.L | We revisited it this past August when the Swiss tariffs were announced. We incorporated the 39% tariffs into our valuation and again found the company trading at a very low valuation. The company also benefits from a very strong and well-incentivized management team and a highly attractive franchise anchored by the Rolex relationship. |
| TBCG.L | With TBC, we see a bank trading at under 5x earnings in a very attractive market. Georgia has strong GDP growth prospects, and the banking system functions as a duopoly between two well managed and rational players. A little more than 80% of the business is in Georgia, and beyond that you have meaningful option value in the Uzbek business. |
| CVNA | I pitched Carvana (CVNA) at the Goldman Emerging Managers Conference and the Morgan Stanley European CIO Conference in 2022. It was the best performing short, as the stock went from $196 down to $4, when Apollo stepped in and saved it from bankruptcy. We covered the short position. |
| ANET | With Arista, I wish I could say the original thesis was AI, but it was not. The thesis years ago was cloud computing data centers, and the idea that demand for bandwidth would grow for the rest of my career. Arista had, in my view, a better product than Cisco for hyperscale users. |
| PGR | Progressive today has about an 8-10 point underwriting advantage over the rest of the industry, which is unheard of. If anything, the margin is widening. They invested in telematics long before anyone else, so they know more about how you drive, and that turns out to be the most important underwriting factor. |
| DLO | We recommend a BUY for dLocal (DLO), a scaled emerging-markets payments infrastructure provider that we believe is at an inflection point: TPV growth is re-accelerating, take-rate compression is stabilizing, and a new management team is tightening execution. |
| MELI | At US$2k/share (c. 22x NTM EBITDA and c. 40x NTM P/E), the stock screens expensive on near-term multiples, but our base-case DCF points to 50–130% upside and a 15–25% IRR over 10 years. The thesis rests on durable scale advantages in LatAm e-commerce and logistics. |
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