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| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As of Oct 13, 2026
Guinness Global Energy Fund delivered a net return of 15.2% in USD for the third quarter of 2026, matching the MSCI World Energy Index net return of 15.2% and substantially outpacing the broader MSCI World Index net return of 1.9%. Year-to-date through September 30, 2026, the fund gained 38.8% net of fees, ahead of its comparator benchmark's 36.5% advance and the broad market's 11.8% gain. Portfolio asset allocation at quarter-end stood at 94.0% in energy equities and 6.0% in cash, with equity positioning diversified across integrated oil and gas (53.7%), exploration and production (17.6%), midstream infrastructure (8.8%), equipment and services (8.2%), and refining and marketing (5.7%). Performance over the quarter was dominated by downstream refining tightness and geopolitical dislocations across Russia and the Middle East. Sustained Ukrainian drone campaigns knocked out approximately 4m b/day of Russian refining capacity, while attacks on Middle Eastern transit routes and Saudi infrastructure took another 2.2m b/day of refining offline. These supply disruptions caused European diesel margins to reach $93/bl and US gasoline margins to exceed $60/bl. In parallel, vessel re-routing around the Cape of Good Hope and shuttle tanker transfers expanded transit times, pushing oil tanker freight rates close to $30/bl and magnifying global product supply bottlenecks. Relative outperformance within the portfolio was propelled by pure-play US refiner Valero, advantaged European refiners Repsol and OMV, and super-majors ExxonMobil and Chevron, which capitalized on surging refining spreads. Upstream natural gas exposure bolstered Equinor amid depressed European gas storage levels, while Canadian oil sands operators Cenovus and Suncor benefited from their downstream integration and non-Middle East crude security. In contrast, emerging market oils PetroChina and Sinopec lagged under state-mandated product price caps, and North American midstream pipeline operators faced valuation headwinds from balance sheet gearing.
Over the next 20 years, the combined effects of population growth, developing world industrialisation and diminishing fossil fuel supplies will force energy prices higher and generate growing profits for energy companies.
The managers anticipate that energy commodity prices will remain supported by structural supply constraints and heightened geopolitical risks. In the oil market, Saudi Arabia's fiscal requirement of roughly $90/bl and disciplined OPEC+ quota management are expected to maintain an effective price floor north of $80/bl, with global oil demand projected to rebound by 2.5m b/day in 2027 to 105m b/day before peaking in the early 2030s. Refining margins are forecast to remain elevated two to three times above long-run historical averages through the end of the decade due to acute physical capacity deficits. In natural gas, international prices are anticipated to settle in a $9-$11/Mcf range, sufficient to incentivize substantial US LNG export capacity additions through 2028, while domestic US Henry Hub prices should align with an onshore incentive price near $3.50/Mcf.
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