| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 12.8% |
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.9% | 32.1% | -20.7% | 22.6% | 32.1% |
The Guinness Global Innovators Fund returned -1.5% in November, underperforming the MSCI World by 0.9 percentage points as AI bubble concerns weighed on technology stocks. Despite strong performance from Medtronic and Alphabet, weakness in Nvidia and Salesforce offset gains. The Fund maintains top quartile performance over longer time horizons. Looking ahead to 2026, the investment environment appears constructive with expansive monetary policy, substantial fiscal stimulus through the OBBA, and continued AI capex growth supporting earnings expectations of 15.9% for the S&P 500. However, elevated valuations across all regions, emerging AI bubble concerns, and persistent US inflation risks create uncertainty. The Fund's quality-focused approach becomes more attractive as quality stocks trade below their 10-year average premium. The strategy continues to emphasize high-quality companies with durable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets, and exposure to secular innovation themes, using equal-weight positioning to manage concentration risk while maintaining conviction in long-term growth drivers.
The Fund invests in high-quality global companies exposed to secular innovation themes, using equal-weight positioning and valuation discipline to capture long-term growth while managing risks from market volatility and bubble concerns.
The outlook for 2026 appears constructive with favorable monetary easing, substantial fiscal stimulus, and continued AI investment supporting earnings growth. However, elevated valuations, AI bubble concerns, and persistent US inflation risks create uncertainty. Quality investing is expected to become more attractive given current relative valuations.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | 2020.HK, ABB, AMAT, APH, AVGO, CRM, DHR, GOOGL, ICE, LRCX, MDT, META, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SHL.DE, TMO | AI, global, inflation, innovation, monetary policy, Quality, semiconductors, technology | - | AI capex cycle continues to gather momentum with Hyperscaler spending expectations rising 78% for 2026 and 95% for 2027. However, concerns around an AI bubble… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 1 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 6 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 6 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
QualityThe portfolio has shifted toward higher quality businesses with better profitability, lower leverage, and less volatile earnings. Quality stocks underperformed significantly in 2025, creating attractive entry points for value investors. The manager maintains price discipline while seeking quality companies trading at discounts to intrinsic value. |
Quality Profitability Leverage Earnings | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor represents the dominant manufacturer for leading fabless chip designers including NVIDIA, Apple, and Broadcom. The global arms race to develop artificial general intelligence will support multiple years of robust growth for foundries with leading-edge capabilities. |
Foundries Advanced Process AI Chips Manufacturing Technology Leadership |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 2020.HK | The Fund also benefited from positive stock selection in Consumer Discretionary thanks to Anta Sports (+4.6%). |
| AMAT | Metasurface primarily supplies parts to Applied Materials, one of the world's leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers |
| APH | We trimmed Amphenol Corp. |
| AVGO | Broadcom, a leading semiconductor company and long-term holding, continued to execute well amid strong demand for custom silicon supporting AI workloads. |
| CRM | We trimmed Salesforce Inc. |
| DHR | After lagging through the first three quarters of 2025, Danaher's stock rebounded during Q4 as bioprocessing, life science, and diagnostics demand continued to recover from a cyclical trough. On the 3Q25 call, management established conservative 2026 growth expectations. Revenue is expected to continue to lag long-term trends at 3-6% but improve throughout the year. |
| GOOGL | I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Larry Page, co-founder of Google |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a long-term holding and remains a top 10 position in the Fund. ICE's share price has been under pressure, largely due to AI-related concerns. The share price has already recovered 15% from recent lows. |
| LRCX | we believe it is well positioned to become an approved vendor for Lam Research (a supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment) as well |
| MDT | These purchases were funded through trims to medical device company Medtronic |
| META | Meta was cited as a larger position that contributed little despite what I thought was positive operating progress, representing opportunity cost in the portfolio. |
| NFLX | Netflix has built a durable economic moat around its vertically-integrated, globally-scaled streaming business. As the first company to establish a global subscription media platform within the $500 billion TV market, Netflix is now reaping the benefits of its early leadership. With more than 300 million members, Netflix enjoys the lowest content cost per subscriber in the industry. |
| NVDA | Nvidia sits at the top of the S&P 500 as the designer in the AI ecosystem. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. |
| SHL.DE | We have also exited our position in Germany-based Siemens Healthineers. The company remains highly advantaged and a leader in its field, however business headwinds we believed to be temporary have turned out to be longer-lasting and we foresee continued difficulties in the year ahead. The biggest issues for the company are its China business—which is hurt by negative pricing trends and weak orders—and tariffs, which will be a meaningful headwind to margins this year. |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific was up on improved sentiment toward the health care sector. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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