| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 13.8% | 8.7% |
The Guinness Global Innovators Fund returned 13.8% in Q2 2026, outperforming the MSCI World Index by 0.7 percentage points. The quarter saw a powerful rotation back into the AI trade as hyperscalers raised 2026 capex guidance to $758bn, driving exceptional returns for semiconductor equipment manufacturers with Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research all returning over 100%. The semiconductor industry experienced 79% year-over-year revenue growth led by memory, where DRAM and NAND sales surged 271% on soaring prices as AI hardware demand outstripped supply. However, investor sentiment diverged between semiconductor suppliers and hyperscalers, with the latter underperforming amid concerns over AI monetization returns. The Fund benefited from its overweight to Information Technology and positive stock selection in semiconductor equipment, though Communication Services was a drag with Netflix disappointing. Geopolitical tensions eased as the US-Iran conflict de-escalated, sending Brent crude from $120 to mid-$70s, though inflation reached a three-year high prompting a more hawkish Fed stance. The Fund made two switches during the quarter, purchasing AMD and Nasdaq while selling Adobe and Intuit amid software sector weakness. Despite a complex macro environment, the Fund's focus on quality growth at reasonable valuations and equally weighted positions provides resilience.
The Guinness Global Innovators Fund invests in quality growth companies trading at reasonable valuations, focusing on companies experiencing faster profit growth, larger margins and lower susceptibility to cyclical pressures, with exposure to long-term secular growth themes driven by innovations in technology, communication, globalisation, or innovative management strategies.
The current market environment has been shaped by heightened geopolitical tensions, rising inflationary pressures and evolving monetary policy expectations. At the same time, weakness across parts of the software sector has tempered enthusiasm for AI-related stocks, while growing debate around whether the AI trade has entered bubble territory has added caution to investor sentiment. Despite a complex macro-economic setting, stock fundamentals have shown resilience. The Fund's focus on high-quality growth stocks, underpinned by structural innovation themes, maintains valuation discipline which is particularly important in the context of a market where valuation is front of mind. The equally weighted positions limit over-reliance on any single company.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AAPL, ABBN SW, AMAT, AMD, AME, AMZN, APH, AVGO, DHR, GOOGL, KLAC, LRCX, MA, META, MSFT, NVDA, SCHN.PA, TMO, TSM, V | AI, geopolitics, growth, inflation, innovation, Quality, semiconductors, technology | - | The Fund returned 13.8% in Q2 2026, outperforming on semiconductor equipment strength as AI infrastructure build-out accelerated. Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research all doubled as memory and foundry capex surged. Hyperscalers raised 2026 capex to $758bn but underperformed on monetization concerns. Geopolitical tensions eased with oil falling from $120 to $70s, though inflation hit three-year highs. The Fund added AMD and Nasdaq while exiting Adobe and Intuit. |
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ADBE, AMAT, INTU, LRCX | AI, energy, geopolitics, growth, innovation, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Guinness Global Innovators underperformed in Q1 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and AI-driven software sector weakness. Strong semiconductor equipment performance from Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA offset headwinds from zero Energy exposure and software holdings pressure. Fund maintains conviction in quality growth approach despite near-term macro volatility and AI disruption concerns. |
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | 2020.HK, ABB, AMAT, APH, AVGO, CRM, DHR, GOOGL, ICE, LRCX, MDT, META, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SHL.DE, TMO | AI, global, inflation, innovation, monetary policy, Quality, semiconductors, technology | - | Fund underperformed in November due to AI bubble concerns affecting technology holdings, despite strong individual stock selection. The 2026 outlook appears constructive with monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and continued AI investment supporting earnings growth, though elevated valuations and inflation risks create uncertainty. Quality factor underperformance presents opportunity given current relative valuations. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, 2020.HK, ABB, AMZN, APH, AVGO, BABA, GOOGL, IFX.DE, KLAC, LRCX, LSEG.L, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, NVO, ORCL, TSM | AI, China, Cloud, growth, innovation, semiconductors, technology | - | Guinness Global Innovators returned 7.5% in Q3 2025, slightly underperforming markets despite benefiting from AI-driven tech strength. The fund capitalized on semiconductor equipment demand while exiting struggling healthcare positions. With AI infrastructure spending approaching unprecedented levels and market valuations elevated, the strategy maintains disciplined focus on quality growth companies across diversified innovation themes. |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 2020.HK, AAPL, APH, DHR, ICE, IFX.DE, INTU, KLAC, LRCX, MA, META, NFLX, NVDA, NVO, SHL.DE, TMO, TSM | AI, global, growth, innovation, Quality, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy | - | Guinness Global Innovators outperformed in Q2 2025 despite trade policy volatility, benefiting from AI-exposed technology holdings like Amphenol and Nvidia while healthcare faced tariff headwinds. The fund's quality growth approach and equal weighting strategy helped navigate Liberation Day tariff uncertainty. Managers remain confident in secular innovation themes positioning for long-term returns. |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 0001.HK, 005930.KS, 034730.KS, AC.TO, Gold, J36.SI, RIT.L | AI, Asia, Discounts, gold, Mining, technology, value |
Gold 005930.KS AC.PS |
Oldfield's fund posted strong 29.1% YTD returns led by Barrick Gold doubling amid $4000 gold prices and central bank reserve shifts. The strategy targets deep value opportunities in holding companies trading at 50% NAV discounts while maintaining selective AI exposure through Samsung and SK Inc at reasonable valuations, avoiding expensive AI bubble stocks. |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 0161.HK, 5238.KL | Asia, Concentration, Construction, real estate, small caps, value |
0163.HK 5238.KL |
Stone Sentinel delivered 45.3% YTD returns through concentrated value investing, holding 5 deeply undervalued positions across Asia. Recent additions Able Engineering and Protasco trade at significant discounts to intrinsic value despite strong fundamentals. Manager emphasizes practical wisdom and adaptability while maintaining conviction in carefully selected opportunities with substantial margins of safety. |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BRK-A, FINV | China, Concentration, Construction, Fintech, technology, value |
GSJ CLA FINV |
Stone Sentinel Capital's concentrated value strategy delivered 38% YTD returns through five deeply undervalued positions. Holdings include Spanish construction company GSJ trading below net cash, French software firm CLA at 6.5x FCF amid activist turnaround, and Chinese fintech FINV offering 30% FCF yields in consolidated oligopoly market. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | dividends, fixed income, rates, small caps, Valuations | - | Oujo Wealth Strategies reports strong 2025 performance across all portfolios despite market volatility. The firm is cautiously optimistic, making tactical shifts into fixed income while favoring dividend payers, mid and small caps, and longer-term bonds. With the S&P 500 at 6,700 and earnings growing, they see equities offering a slight premium over safer assets. |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, CCJ, CEG, GLNG, GOOGL, MELI, MSFT, RYAAY, SWKS, TDW, TLN | E-Commerce, energy, global, nuclear, Utilities, value |
TLN MELI RYAAY SWKS |
City Different's concentrated global equity strategies surged 13%+ in Q3, driven by nuclear power play Talen Energy and Latin American e-commerce leader Mercado Libre. Energy holdings dragged on weak oil prices and Chinese demand. The team trimmed winners to buy Ryanair while exiting failed Skyworks position, maintaining constructive long-term outlook despite advocating moderate near-term expectations. |
| Jan 9 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A | AI, large cap, Market Leadership, Patience, Quality, technology | - | Pittenger & Anderson advocates for timeless investment principles over market timing. Their ICQP framework emphasizes intelligence, consistency, quality, and patience as antidotes to media-driven fear and greed. While AI-driven Big Tech continues leading markets with the S&P up 14.8% year-to-date, record margin debt and narrow leadership present risks. Fed rate cuts provide supportive backdrop. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A, GOOGL, JPM, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Debt, diversification, long-term, rates, tariffs, technology | - | P&A marks 30 years by reaffirming their core thesis: own high-quality companies long-term despite volatility. Q2 saw dramatic tariff-driven selloff and recovery, while AI productivity gains and Fed rate cuts provide potential catalysts. U.S. debt concerns and declining foreign ownership create risks, but international diversification helped with MSCI EAFE up 19.9% year-to-date. |
| Jul 1 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMZN, RIVN, WMT | Electric Vehicles, Government, policy, tariffs, Trade Policy | RIVN | GDS Investments warns that Trump Administration policies, particularly tariffs, are creating business uncertainty despite stable markets. A Yale CEO survey shows 70% report tariff harm to their businesses. The manager criticizes policy formulation without private sector consultation and government picking winners and losers. Investment focus remains on resilient companies with competitive moats that can adapt to policy uncertainty. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | NVO, RIVN, STZ | fundamentals, inflation, Macro, Quality, rates, value | - | GDS Investments maintains that company fundamentals trump macro conditions, using recent market volatility to acquire quality names like Rivian, Constellation Brands, and Novo Nordisk at attractive prices. Despite structural shifts in rates and inflation, strong businesses with moats can navigate any environment, making current turmoil an opportunity rather than obstacle. |
| Jan 9 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 6 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 6 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe AI infrastructure build-out remains a dominant theme, with hyperscalers raising 2026 capex guidance to $758bn. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers and memory producers are benefiting from supply constraints and surging demand for AI hardware. However, investor sentiment has diverged, with semiconductor stocks significantly outperforming hyperscalers amid concerns over AI monetization returns. |
Hyperscalers Data Centers GPUs Inference Training |
Semiconductor CycleThe semiconductor industry experienced 79% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026, led by memory where DRAM and NAND sales surged 271% on soaring prices. Supply constraints extend beyond memory and GPUs to leading-edge wafer capacity, optical components, and power infrastructure. Foundry and memory fab capex expectations have risen from $146bn to $185bn for FY26. |
Memory DRAM NAND Foundries Wafer Capacity | |
Semi EquipmentWafer fabrication equipment companies delivered exceptional returns as foundries and integrated device manufacturers responded with record capital expenditure. The current cycle is characterized as supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained, with management raising outlook for global WFE spending into 2026 and 2027. Rising equipment intensity and highly recurring service revenues reinforce the structural growth outlook. |
WFE Process Control Etch Deposition Metrology | |
EnergyBrent crude oil prices fell sharply from $120 per barrel in April to mid-$70s by June as the US-Iran conflict de-escalated and the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened. The unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had driven oil above $100 earlier in 2026 reduced inflation concerns and supported a broad recovery across risk assets. |
Oil Brent Iran Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical Risk | |
InflationInflation reached a three-year high in May 2026, prompting a more hawkish tone from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets shifted expectations from one rate rise to two hikes in the next 12 months. The removal of forward guidance and Warsh's preference for trimmed mean PCE inflation measures has created uncertainty regarding the future path of interest rates. |
PCE Fed Rate Hikes Monetary Policy Forward Guidance | |
Capital MarketsSpaceX completed the largest IPO on record at $1.77 trillion valuation, while Anthropic and OpenAI filed for listings at valuations approaching $1 trillion each. Alphabet raised $85bn in equity and $32bn in bonds to fund AI infrastructure. Gross proceeds from US IPOs reached $120bn by mid-2026, above the 2021 record year, though the number of deals remains near historical averages. |
IPOs Equity Issuance Debt Issuance Valuations Late Cycle | |
CloudHyperscalers have significantly underperformed semiconductor stocks year-to-date, down 6% versus the SOX Semiconductor Index up 101%. The scale of ongoing hyperscaler capex approaching $760bn has raised concerns given the lack of visibility on return on investment. Markets have been far more willing to reward the suppliers of AI infrastructure than the companies funding it. |
Hyperscalers Capex ROI Amazon Microsoft | |
StreamingNetflix delivered strong organic growth driven by membership numbers, higher pricing, and increased advertising revenue, but shares sold off 25.7% as the company maintained guidance despite positive momentum. The market interpreted this as a potential indicator of growth deceleration, with questions about whether Netflix can sustain pricing power given recent increases. |
Netflix Advertising Pricing Power Content Subscribers | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe quarter saw a meaningful shift in how markets are pricing the long-term AI opportunity, particularly in software. The release of models such as Claude Cowork raised concerns over 'vibe coding' and software commoditization. However, the fund sees AI as unlikely to uniformly destroy software but rather redistribute value across the technology stack. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Disruption Automation Agents |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor equipment companies performed strongly, driven by continued demand for AI infrastructure build-out. Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA had strong quarters as hyperscalers continue allocating capital towards cutting-edge chips. Memory has been a particular bright spot with demand for high-bandwidth memory outpacing supply. |
Chips Equipment Memory Foundries Manufacturing | |
OilThe escalation of the US-Iran conflict drove a surge in oil prices with Brent crude reaching $118 per barrel. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in upheaval in energy markets globally. Markets view current disruption as largely temporary while pricing in some degree of lasting structural damage to supply. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Prices Conflict | |
InflationRising oil prices have increased the risk of a stagflationary environment and heavily dented confidence in the inflation outlook. The energy shock has had a material effect on central banks' scope for further monetary easing, with markets now pricing near zero rate cuts for 2026. |
Prices Monetary Policy Stagflation Central Banks Rates | |
SoftwareSoftware sector came under renewed scrutiny with concerns over AI-driven disruption. The market has been unforgiving with software sectors experiencing widespread drawdowns exceeding 50%. However, the fund believes AI systems remain probabilistic and lack the determinism required for many mission-critical workflows. |
SaaS Disruption Valuations Enterprise Applications | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI capex cycle continues with hyperscaler spending expectations rising 78% for 2026 and 95% for 2027. However, concerns about an AI bubble are emerging due to circular deal flows and elevated capital intensity, with some companies putting over 100% of operating cash flow toward capex. |
Artificial Intelligence Capex Hyperscalers Bubble |
SemiconductorsFund benefited from underweight to Nvidia which fell 12.6% and overweight to Applied Materials which gained 8.4%. Rising interest in TPUs highlights industry trend toward workload-optimized hardware, though GPUs remain central due to flexibility and software lock-in. |
Chips GPUs TPUs Hardware | |
QualityQuality as a factor has underperformed year-to-date but historically rallies after such periods. Quality provides downside protection in bear markets and is currently trading below its 10-year average premium, presenting a good entry opportunity. |
Factor Investing Downside Protection Valuations | |
InflationInflation outlook becoming increasingly divergent across regions. US core inflation expected to remain at 2.6% in 2026 above Fed target due to tariffs and fiscal policy, while Euro area inflation expected to fall to 1.8%. |
Price Pressures Regional Divergence Monetary Policy | |
RatesFavorable monetary backdrop with policy rates moving decisively off 2023 peaks. Markets anticipating additional Fed rate cuts despite two cuts already delivered, with Powell noting inflation appears close to 2% target strengthening case for gradual reductions. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Rate Cuts | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI infrastructure expenditure has accelerated at unprecedented pace, with Hyperscalers committing vast sums to expand data centers and GPU clusters. Collective Hyperscaler capex projected to exceed $500bn by 2027, supplemented by $300bn in R&D. The surge in AI capital expenditure has sparked debate about how quickly heavy spending can translate into tangible returns. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Infrastructure |
CloudMajor cloud providers are intensifying investment programs with multiyear partnerships and significant capacity buildouts. Oracle entering partnership with OpenAI entailing significant new capacity buildouts. Companies achieving margin expansion and efficiency gains as AI automates workflows and reduces costs through cloud infrastructure. |
Infrastructure Data Centers AI Automation | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor equipment manufacturers like Lam Research delivered robust returns with record gross margins driven by favorable product mix and strong demand from China. Management spoke to increasing complexity and intensity in etch and deposition processes for AI chips, with companies showcasing new products ahead of peers in innovation. |
Equipment AI Memory Foundries | |
ChinaChinese equities staged notable rally outperforming most major global markets as policy momentum, easing US-China trade tensions, and renewed AI optimism provided tailwinds. Beijing coordinated stimulus with rate cuts and targeted credit easing. Gains were broad-based, led by AI and semiconductor companies benefiting from renewed investor confidence. |
Policy Trade AI Stimulus | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe fund benefits from exposure to artificial intelligence through holdings like Nvidia and Amphenol. Nvidia delivered strongest quarterly earnings despite US licensing restrictions on China shipments, with strong global demand for its latest AI platform. Amphenol saw record sales growth driven by AI-related data center demand. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers GPUs Semiconductors Computing |
Trade PolicyUS trade policies dominated the quarter with sweeping tariffs announced on Liberation Day imposing 10% baseline tariffs escalating to 145% on Chinese goods. This created significant market volatility and uncertainty, though markets rebounded when tariffs were paused for 90 days. The TACO theory emerged suggesting Trump Always Chickens Out when markets react negatively. |
Tariffs China Trade War Policy Uncertainty Protectionism | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor holdings performed strongly in Q2 after lagging in Q1. The fund holds multiple semiconductor names including Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, KLA-Tencor, Infineon, and LAM Research. The sector benefited from renewed risk-on sentiment and strong AI-driven demand despite trade policy headwinds. |
Chip Designers Semi Equipment Memory Foundries Technology Hardware | |
Data CentersData center demand drove strong performance for holdings like Amphenol which saw record sales growth of 48% driven by IT datacom market demand. Nvidia also benefited from hyperscaler adoption of its server systems for AI workloads. The theme represents exposure to secular growth in cloud infrastructure and AI computing. |
Cloud Infrastructure Servers Networking IT Infrastructure Hyperscalers | |
| 2025 Q1 |
GoldGold price touching $4000 reflects market unease, with central banks holding more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Gold now accounts for around 25% of central bank reserves, indicating a significant shift in reserve allocation preferences. |
Gold Central Banks Reserves Treasuries Unease |
AIRecent capital investment commitments in AI by OpenAI and others have benefited Samsung significantly. The manager maintains cautious exposure through Samsung and SK Inc, which provide AI exposure at valuations far removed from bubble territory despite broader AI stock market excesses. |
AI OpenAI Samsung Valuations Bubble | |
ValueThe portfolio focuses on conventional companies with listed holdings trading at substantial discounts to net asset value. Examples include holding companies like Ayala Corp trading at 50% discount versus typical 20-30% discounts, representing double discount opportunities. |
Discount NAV Holdings Conventional Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueManager screens 80,000 global stocks to pick 5-6 concentrated positions, focusing on stocks trading below intrinsic value. Able Engineering trades below cash at 6x earnings despite double-digit growth. Protasco trades at 2.4x PE with core segments worth more than entire market cap. |
Deep Value Concentration Screening Undervaluation Cash |
ConstructionAble Engineering is engaged in building construction and repair, maintenance, addition, and alteration projects for Hong Kong public works. The company has six-decade operating history with government-issued licenses for large public housing projects and strong growth supported by government spending. |
Public Works Infrastructure Government Contracts Hong Kong Housing | |
Commercial Real EstateAble Engineering owns an office building carried at roughly the same value as the company's market cap. The building was developed at cyclical peak and impaired due to 17% vacancy rates in Hong Kong office market, with Kowloon East reporting 24% vacancy. |
Office Buildings Vacancy Rates Hong Kong Impairment Cyclical | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ValueManager emphasizes deep value investing approach with concentrated portfolio of 5 stocks trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. GSJ trades at €400m with €350m net cash, implying core business valued at €50m despite generating €32m net earnings. CLA priced at 6.5x FCF for software publishing segment with recurring revenues. FINV offers 30% FCF yields when including cash position. |
Deep Value Intrinsic Value FCF Yields Net Cash Discount |
ChinaRecent addition of FINV, a large nonbank lender in China connecting small-ticket borrowers to lenders. The fintech company operates in an oligopoly dominating 80-90% of originations after 95% of industry participants exited due to strict regulations since 2016. FINV appears most technologically competent among survivors with superior risk models and real-time updates. |
FinTech Nonbank Lending Oligopoly Technology Risk Models | |
| 2024 Q2 |
DividendsDividend payers have performed well and paid their dividends, which the firm views positively. They identify dividend-paying stocks as attractive due to their yields, fair valuations, and strong holdings for retiree income. |
Income Yields Retirees |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has been under scrutiny to lower rates significantly but has only made one minor cut this year. The firm discusses how equity markets love low rates as they boost valuations, while businesses benefit from cheaper borrowing costs. |
Fed Monetary Policy Valuations Borrowing | |
| 2024 Q1 |
NuclearNuclear power is experiencing renewed demand as AI and data centers require reliable, clean energy. Talen Energy's Susquehanna facility benefits from power price surges and partnerships like Microsoft-Constellation restarting Three Mile Island reactor. |
Nuclear Power Data Centers AI Clean Energy |
E-commerceMercado Libre continues as the leading e-commerce and fintech platform across Latin America, with strong performance in Brazil and Mexico markets driving portfolio returns. |
E-commerce FinTech Latin America Brazil Mexico | |
EnergyEnergy sector underperformed as second-worst S&P 500 sector this year. Oil prices declined due to reduced Chinese demand and lack of OPEC+ supply disruptions, impacting energy-related holdings. |
Oil Energy China OPEC Commodities | |
UraniumUranium investments like Cameco faced headwinds during the quarter, though the manager remains constructive on uranium outlook for the future. |
Uranium Nuclear Fuel Cameco Energy Transition | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIThe Big Tech/AI trade continues to drive market performance. Nine of the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 are directly involved with or beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, with the tenth (Berkshire Hathaway) holding large stakes in AI-related companies like Apple and Amazon. Market leadership remains very narrow around AI-focused companies. |
Technology Large Cap Market Leadership Big Tech |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIAI is viewed as a potential catalyst for stocks through two mechanisms: reducing inflation via productivity and efficiency gains across sectors, and potentially translating to higher margins and stronger equity performance if companies retain cost savings. The letter notes that top companies today are mostly technology-oriented and tied to artificial intelligence possibilities. |
Productivity Efficiency Margins Technology |
Trade PolicyUniversal tariffs announced by President Trump triggered significant market volatility, causing the S&P 500 to decline 21% before recovering on news of a 90-day pause. The letter notes that tariffs haven't produced the inflation many worried about, with Amazon's CEO reporting they're not seeing prices go up. |
Tariffs Volatility Inflation Trade | |
RatesInterest rate policy is highlighted as important to stock prices. Markets currently anticipate two interest rate cuts this year. The letter discusses concerns about U.S. government debt refinancing at nearly twice the average interest rate of three years ago, with over $9 trillion needing refinancing in the next 12 months. |
Fed Cuts Debt Refinancing | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Trade PolicyThe letter extensively discusses the Trump Administration's tariff scheme, with 70% of CEOs surveyed saying tariffs have harmed their businesses. The manager views tariffs as creating policy unpredictability and avoidable costs that affect CEO decision-making around pricing, inventory, capex, and hiring. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Costs Supply Chain |
Industrial PolicyThe manager criticizes the administration's approach of dictating to the private sector and picking winners and losers using the regulatory state. This blurs the lines between capitalism and socialism and creates uncertainty for business planning and investment decisions. |
Regulation Government Winners Losers Capitalism | |
Electric VehiclesThe letter mentions research suggesting EV penetration will rise meaningfully over the next cycle. Rivian is highlighted as a relatively recent portfolio addition that is well positioned to capitalize on the electric transition in the auto industry. |
EV Transition Penetration Auto Electric | |
| 2023 Q1 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes focusing on company-specific fundamentals rather than macro conditions, arguing that strong businesses can perform in all economic environments. Recent market turmoil has created compelling entry points for high-quality companies trading at significant discounts. |
Value Fundamentals Discounts Entry Points Quality |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | Gold | Barrick Gold Corporation | Materials | Gold | Bull | NYSE | Central Bank Demand, Commodities, gold mining, Low-cost producer, materials, profit margins | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | 005930.KS | Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Korea Stock Exchange | AI infrastructure, memory chips, semiconductors, South Korea, technology hardware, Value AI Exposure | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | AC.PS | Ayala Corporation | Financials | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | Philippine Stock Exchange | banking, conglomerate, Emerging markets, NAV discount, Philippines, Real Estate, telecommunications, Value | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | 0163.HK | Able Engineering Holdings | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | construction, dividend yield, government contracts, Hong Kong, infrastructure, Public Works, Real Estate, RMAA, Value | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | 5238.KL | Protasco | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | Bursa Malaysia | asset monetization, capital allocation, conglomerate, Government Concessions, land bank, Malaysia, Road Maintenance, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | GSJ | Grupo Empresarial San José | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | Madrid Stock Exchange | Asset Play, construction, Free Cash Flow, net cash, Real Estate, Spain, Value | Login |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | CLA | Claranova | Information Technology | Software | Bull | Euronext Paris | activist, france, Free Cash Flow, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, technology, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | FINV | Finvolution | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | China, consumer finance, Fintech, Free Cash Flow, international expansion, oligopoly, risk management, technology | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | TLN | Talen Energy | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Amazon Web Services, clean energy, data centers, electricity generation, Independent Power Producer, Microsoft, Nuclear Power, utilities | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | MELI | Mercado Libre | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Brazil, digital payments, e-commerce, Fintech, Internet Retail, Latin America, marketplace, Mexico | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings plc | Industrials | Airlines | Bull | NASDAQ | Airlines, Dublin, Europe, Low-Cost Airline, Returns on Capital, Travel Recovery, Value Investment | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | SWKS | Skyworks Solutions | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bear | NASDAQ | 5G Technology, Apple Dependency, customer concentration risk, Internet of Things, Mobile Communications, Radio Frequency Chips, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Guinness Global Innovators | RIVN | Rivian Automotive Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | NASDAQ | automotive, Bull, Electric Vehicles, EV, Portfolio Addition, Transition | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials (+111.8% in USD) was the top performer over the quarter. As the broadest player across front-end, process control and advanced packaging, Applied Materials remains well positioned to capture share as chipmakers invest across the full manufacturing stack. Recent results and forward commentary from management pointed to a clear inflection in growth beginning in the second half of FY26, highlighting the firm's significant exposure and leading role in the global AI infrastructure build-out. |
| KLAC | KLA (+105.2% in USD) was among the top performers. KLA, the leader in process control and yield management, continues to play a critical role as semiconductor manufacturing becomes increasingly complex. Demand for its inspection and metrology tools remains structurally supported by the transition to advanced nodes, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging, where small improvements in yield have a large economic impact for customers. |
| LRCX | Lam Research (+103.0% in USD) was a top performer. Lam, which specialises in etch and deposition, has been supported by accelerating DRAM and high-bandwidth memory demand, resilient China revenues, and faster-than-expected growth in its high-margin services business. Management has repeatedly raised its outlook for global WFE spending, framing the current cycle as supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained, and extended their elevated growth outlook into 2026 and 2027. |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) returned 29.2% in USD over Q2 and was purchased during the quarter. AMD is a fabless semiconductor company focused on high-performance and AI computing. It designs and sells a broad portfolio of AI-optimised processors and networking chips, positioning itself as a full-stack solutions provider across cloud and AI infrastructure while maintaining strong competitive positioning in PC and gaming end-markets. AMD has notably closed the performance gap with Nvidia in recent years, driven by targeted acquisitions and sustained software investment. The Helios platform, built on AMD's acquisition of systems integrator ZT Systems, is AMD's first rack-scale system unifying graphical processing units (GPUs), computer processing units (CPUs) and Pensando networking into a frontier AI infrastructure solution, and should be a material growth driver from 2027 onwards. AMD is also structurally advantaged by a shift in data centre computational architecture. Its EPYC server CPUs offer industry-leading performance-per-dollar and have taken substantial share from Intel in enterprise and cloud deployments. The rapid build-out of AI infrastructure is driving demand for high core-density server CPUs to meet the orchestration requirements of agentic workloads, and the rise of AI agents could push the CPU-to-GPU deployment ratio toward parity, representing a four-times to eight-times increase from current levels. At 45x one-year forward price-earnings ratio, the valuation is objectively demanding but not excessive given the potential for 50% annualised earnings growth to 2030. |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq returned -4.6% in USD over Q2 and was purchased during the quarter. Nasdaq is best understood not as a traditional exchange but as a global technology, data, and analytics company that happens to own a major stock exchange, a positioning it has deliberately built since its 2017 strategic pivot away from transaction-driven revenue towards higher-growth, higher-margin software and analytics. Nasdaq's business is diversified across three segments. Through its Financial Technology segment, the firm is strategically positioned to benefit from a structural rise in compliance and transparency requirements as regulators demand more granular and frequent reporting from banks globally. This segment also houses Calypso, a trading and risk-management platform whose demand is underpinned by the growing complexity of trading, collateral, and risk requirements at large financial institutions. The Capital Access Platforms segment includes listing fees, market data subscriptions and index licensing on products such as the Nasdaq-100. Its 60% recurring revenue mix offers protection against economic downturns. We originally looked at Nasdaq at the end of last year, when the stock traded at around 23x forward price-earnings ratio. Since then, partly driven by the broader 'SaaSpocalypse', the stock has de-rated to 19x, which we view as an attractive entry point given the quality and growth characteristics of the business. |
| ADBE | Adobe returned -2.5% in USD over Q2 and was sold during the quarter. We initially bought Adobe for its high-quality fundamentals: a subscription-based model that generated over 96% of revenue, profit margins approaching 30%, and a deep distribution network supported by strong brand equity. However, the shares have struggled recently due to the rapidly changing and increasingly competitive landscape in the creative design and data analytics markets. Initially, Adobe was seen as a beneficiary of the AI boom as its flagship tool Firefly quickly gained momentum, generated over 16 billion creative outputs and set adoption records. Despite this early promise, the picture has since been muddled by a disconnect between upbeat management commentary and the lack of a growth inflection that would be expected to follow. While Adobe was focusing on the longer term by prioritising user proliferation rather than immediate product monetisation, we felt achieving an inflection in the backlog and sales growth through pricing was going to be more difficult than previously envisioned. In particular, the potential need to adapt the industry-standard SaaS model to incorporate the token intensity of AI product presents a real challenge for the company. This has been compounded by the announced retirement of long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen and company changes to segment reporting, further complicating analysts' ability to assess performance over time. |
| INTU | Intuit returned -40.2% in USD over Q2 and was sold during the quarter. We initially bought Intuit for its market-leading position in mission-critical tax and accounting software, a deeply embedded QuickBooks platform with significant switching costs, and a strong consumer brand in TurboTax. QuickBooks' c.80% market share, high customer retention and accountant-led distribution created a durable competitive advantage, while Intuit's expanding ecosystem across payments, payroll, lending, Mailchimp, and tax services provided a clear runway for long-term growth and further monetisation. Toward the end of 2025 and in early 2026, markets became increasingly concerned with the 'Saaspocalypse', the implications of AI disruption of the software sector, causing sentiment on the stock to sour. While Intuit continued to deliver resilient results overall, its most recent earnings print changed the thesis for us. Revenue and earnings were modestly ahead of consensus, but the quarter was overshadowed by disappointing TurboTax performance, where revenue growth of 7% fell short of expectations (c.8%) and paid DIY returns declined sharply, particularly among price-sensitive, lower-income filers. This reignited concerns that Intuit's pricing power and share at the lower end of the tax market may be more vulnerable than previously anticipated. In particular, TurboTax's DIY weakness, combined with management's shift toward 'value-based' pricing, suggests that the moat around simple tax filing may be eroding faster than expected. |
| NFLX | Netflix returned -25.7% in USD over Q2 and was one of the Fund's weaker performers. Netflix, the streaming giant, sold off despite strong organic growth driven by strong membership numbers, higher pricing, and increased advertising revenue. There was also a boost to earnings per share from the termination fee related to Paramount's merger with Warner Bros, as Netflix had previously been in talks to acquire the latter's studio and streaming assets. However, the market was disappointed by Netflix choosing to maintain guidance for 2026 despite the positive momentum seen in the first quarter. This was taken as a potential indicator of growth deceleration in future quarters, with some questioning whether Netflix can sustain pricing power given the increases it has already pushed through the subscriber base. The company also announced the departure of its Co-founder and Chairman Reed Hastings to focus on philanthropic and other pursuits. The bid for Warner Bros was a departure from Netflix's historic modus operandi, so it was encouraging to see it display capital discipline by refusing to engage in a bidding war. Its withdrawal from the process signalled a return to the existing organic growth strategy of heavy internal investment into content. Netflix is actively scaling its advertising capabilities to expand its ad-supported tier: rolling out interactive video ads, leveraging AI to automate ad targeting, and shifting the bulk of its ad business toward programmatic channels. In our view, Netflix continues to generate strong, recurring cash flows and separate itself from legacy media peers as a dominant, high-quality company. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing returned 41.6% in USD over Q2. TSMC, historically more conservative on capacity, is now guiding FY26 capex toward the high end of its range. TSMC also stands out on the logic side, with expected capex growth rising to 42%, reflecting stronger demand for advanced foundry and packaging capacity. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet returned 24.4% in USD over Q2. Alphabet has also taken advantage of strong investor sentiment. In June, the company priced close to $85bn in equity, including a private placement with Berkshire Hathaway, only weeks after raising nearly $32bn in bonds in February, both to help fund its AI infrastructure build-out. Alphabet generated $174bn of operating cash flow over the past year and had not raised meaningful equity since 2006. Its tapping both equity and debt markets within weeks indicates the scale of the AI infrastructure build-out. |
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