Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | -12.9% | 22.3% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | -69.2% | -15.8% | 222.4% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | -12.9% | 22.3% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | -69.2% | -15.8% | 222.4% |
Hayden Capital returned -12.9% in Q4 2025 versus +2.7% for the S&P 500, but delivered +22.3% for the full year versus +17.9% for the index. The manager believes international markets will continue outperforming US equities due to valuation disparities and growing recognition that the US has become a less stable investment environment. The AI cycle is shifting from infrastructure build-out to real-world applications, creating uncertainty about which legacy companies will benefit versus face disruption. This has triggered indiscriminate selling in software and other digital sectors, despite many companies still growing. The manager sees opportunities in incumbent businesses that can leverage AI to amplify their models, particularly those whose value lies in proprietary data, network effects, and physical infrastructure rather than just code. Key holdings include Sea Ltd, where recent weakness appears driven by overblown TikTok competition fears, and the manager is exploring new positions in underappreciated AI application winners. Geographic allocation remains ~42% Asia, ~41% North America, and ~16% Latin America.
Focus on companies whose core value extends beyond underlying technology, particularly those with proprietary data, network effects, and physical infrastructure that AI cannot easily replicate.
The manager expects international markets to continue outpacing US equities driven by valuation disparities and US instability. He believes the AI cycle shift from infrastructure to applications will create opportunities for incumbent companies that can successfully leverage new technologies. The software sector valuation reset may present attractive opportunities for active stock-pickers who can distinguish between winners and losers during this period of disruption.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 1519.HK, 7974.T, ABNB, APP, BKNG, CPNG, DASH, EDU, EXPE, GTLB, MELI, NFLX, NOW, RBLX, SE, SPOT, TEAM, TTWO, U, UBER | AI, competition, E-Commerce, gaming, international, software, technology, valuation |
EDU SE |
The AI cycle is shifting from building core infrastructure to attacking real-world applications, creating uncertainty about which legacy firms will benefit versus face disruption. Software… |
| Nov 26 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 215A JP | AI, deployment, infrastructure, Platforms, productivity | 215A JP | Hayden argues that the AI boom resembles past infrastructure bubbles that, despite investor losses, leave behind lasting technological foundations. The letter focuses on the coming… |
| Aug 25 2025 | 2025 Q2 | SMRT | emerging growth, forced selling, market structure, survival, volatility tolerance | SMRT | The letter introduces a minimax framework focused on maximizing long-term survival rather than minimizing short-term volatility. Management argues that structural market changes, forced selling by… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | APP, COIN, SE | - | - | - |
| Feb 27 2025 | 2024 Q4 | SE | - | - | - |
| Nov 27 2024 | 2024 Q3 | APP | - | - | - |
| Aug 27 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMZN, APP, PDD | - | - | - |
| Jun 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | SE | - | - | - |
| Jan 7 2024 | 2023 Q3 | SMRT | - | - | - |
| Aug 25 2023 | 2023 Q2 | EDU, META, PDD, SE, TCEHY | - | - | - |
| May 25 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CVNA, PDD | - | - | - |
| Feb 24 2023 | 2022 Q4 | PDD | - | - | - |
| Nov 25 2022 | 2022 Q3 | SE, SMRT | - | - | - |
| Aug 19 2022 | 2022 Q2 | COIN | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
E-commerceThe portfolio maintains exposure to e-commerce platforms and enablement technologies through holdings like Amazon and Shopify. The fund views e-commerce as benefiting from secular shifts in consumer behavior and continued digital commerce adoption across retail categories. |
Platforms Digital Retail Consumer Technology | |
GamingNintendo continues to demonstrate exceptional performance with Switch 2 becoming the fastest-selling console in history, selling 17.4 million units in just 7 months. The company has a historically rich first-party software pipeline and is building new recurring revenue streams through Nintendo Switch Online and its expanding cinematic universe. |
Nintendo Console Software Hardware Entertainment | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
| 2025 Q2 |
Survival |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Fred Liu | 215A JP | Timee Inc | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | NYSE | Demographics, Employment, Fintech, inflation, Japan, Labor, Margins, marketplace, Staffing, valuation | Login |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Fred Liu | SMRT | SmartRent, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Governance, Interest, Multifamily, profitability, proptech, SaaS | Login |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Fund Letters | Fred Liu | EDU | New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Education Services | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | capital return, Demographics, Free Cash Flow, Regulatory risk, Share Buybacks, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Fund Letters | Fred Liu | SE | Sea Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Competition, e-commerce, EV/EBITDA, Logistics, margin compression, market share | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 7974.T | Shares of Nintendo dropped, weighed down by investor concerns that rising costs for its manufacturing parts, including memory chips, could negatively impact its profit. |
| ABNB | ABNB: $6B authorized August 2025; $3.7B repurchased |
| APP | AppLovin provides tools that help mobile app developers, particularly mobile game developers, market and monetize their products. We exited AppLovin after significant price appreciation. |
| BKNG | You may remember that we owned Booking during the pandemic. It is the world's leading online travel agency and a business we have admired for a long time. The company benefits from powerful network effects—more hotels attract more travelers, and vice versa—creating a moat that is incredibly difficult for competitors to cross. It is highly profitable, capital-light, and generates significant free cash flow. We were happy to re-enter this high-quality compounder at a valuation that offers a compelling margin of safety. |
| CPNG | Shares of Coupang, Inc., Korea's largest e-commerce platform, declined 26.7% in the fourth quarter (though up 7.3% in 2025). The weakness was initially driven by elevated upfront investments in its new market, Taiwan, where aggressive customer acquisition, supplier onboarding and product procurement, and logistics infrastructure buildout weighed on near-term profitability. |
| DASH | DoorDash Inc. operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and independent contractors. reported better-than-expected quarterly results. However, management announced a significant increase in planned investments for 2026, which led to a -17% decline in its share price. |
| EDU | We sold the last of our New Oriental position this quarter. The opportunity first appeared in 2022, after a brutal stretch for the company. China had launched a sweeping regulatory crackdown on the afterschool tutoring sector in 2021, and shares were then hit again as investors fled Chinese markets during the 2022 bear market. In total, the stock plummeted 96% from peak to trough in just over a year. Since then, growth has settled into a more measured pace, with revenues up ~+13% y/y and operating profit growing ~+17% y/y over the past two years. Shares appreciated ~+126% during our ownership. |
| EXPE | Expedia, which was a recent purchase, also posted strong results and raised the outlook going forward. We added to our exposure to Expedia and continue to hold both stocks in the Fund. |
| GTLB | We initiated a new investment position in GitLab (GTLB), a Dev/Sec/Ops software platform vendor that helps software developers plan, build, and monitor code for new and existing applications. The stock has been under severe pressure for some time, largely due to the belief that AI-powered 'Vibe Coding' software companies will displace GTLB solutions. We fundamentally reject this thesis and believe that as software development becomes easier and more productive, more code will be generated, increasing the need for planning, development, and monitoring tools like GitLab's. We estimate GTLB's intrinsic value is $75 per share. |
| MELI | E-commerce Volatility: turbulence in our e-commerce portfolio companies, Sea Ltd (Southeast Asia) and MercadoLibre (Latin America), amidst aggressive price wars. |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| NOW | In the case of ServiceNow, the stock weakened following reports of a potential large acquisition while the company has also been challenged by bearish sentiment across the software as a service or SAAS segment. |
| RBLX | An overweight position in Roblox Corp. (RBLX) detracted from performance. The stock declined following quarterly earnings, which signaled slower profit growth and uncertainty around future bookings. |
| SE | E-commerce Volatility: turbulence in our e-commerce portfolio companies, Sea Ltd (Southeast Asia) and MercadoLibre (Latin America), amidst aggressive price wars. |
| SPOT | Spotify is the world's leading audio streaming platform. Third-quarter results showed continued operating progress, with users increasing 11% to 713 million and subscribers growing 12% to 281 million. Meanwhile, operating income expanded to a mid-teens margin, alongside a record quarterly free cash flow. Despite the momentum, the shares weakened as investors reset near-term margin expectations. Spotify has been a top contributor to long-term Fund performance, and we remain confident that pricing, product innovation, advertising efficiency, and an expanding ecosystem can continue to widen margins over time, as reinforced this quarter by the launch of Spotify recommendations within ChatGPT. |
| TEAM | We sold Atlassian, which produces collaboration software, as we reduced our overweight exposure to software because we feel that AI has widened the range of outcomes for predominantly seat-based revenue models. |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. develops, publishes, and markets interactive software games. Their game franchise includes Grand Theft Auto, BioShock, Red Dead Redemption, Max Payne, NBA 2 K, LA Noire, Civilization, Midnight Club, and Borderlands. The company delivered solid fiscal second-quarter results, with 20% year-over-year growth in recurring consumer spending. Net bookings projections were therefore increased. Overshadowing earnings was an announcement that its subsidiary, Rockstar Games, will delay the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 from May to November 2026 to allow for a higher level of polish. GTA6 is the most anticipated game launch in the company's history. Shares of Take-Two fell sharply following that report and we added to our position on weakness. Take-Two's price subsequently rebounded and ended the quarter down on -1%, which far exceeded the benchmark sector average of -20%. |
| U | Unity Software had big one-year gains. |
| UBER | UBER was a detractor in the fourth quarter following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, which delivered strong operating performance but was met with a muted market reaction. Gross Bookings and adjusted EBITDA both came in near the high end of management's guidance, driven by accelerating demand across both Mobility and Delivery. However, investor focus shifted to commentary around reduced margin expansion as the company steps up investment in growth initiatives, including autonomous vehicle partnerships, platform innovation, and commerce expansion. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||