Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Horizon Investments presents a constructive outlook centered on the sustainability and broader economic impact of the AI capital expenditure cycle. The firm argues this investment boom, comparable to historic buildouts like railroads and telecommunications, remains in early innings and is fundamentally sound as it's funded by free cash flow rather than debt. The resulting productivity gains are approaching levels seen in the 1960s and 1990s, driving corporate profitability through margin expansion. With the Fed likely done cutting rates, this stability particularly benefits smaller companies and cyclical sectors, potentially catalyzing the long-awaited market broadening. The deregulation push expected in 2026 should further support this dynamic. Key risks include potential Fed politicization by the Trump administration and typical presidential cycle headwinds. However, the underlying drivers of nominal GDP growth and productivity improvements create a favorable environment for equities, especially outside the mega-cap technology leaders that have dominated recent performance. The employment picture remains supportive despite rising unemployment rates.
The AI-driven capital expenditure boom is sustainable and has significant runway ahead, driving productivity gains that will benefit corporate profits and employment, while Fed rate stability should catalyze a broadening market rally favoring smaller and cyclical companies.
The outlook is constructive with AI capex buildout having longer to run beyond just AI applications, supported by deregulation and productivity gains. The Fed is likely done cutting rates which provides stability, particularly benefiting smaller and cyclical companies. The key catalyst for 2026 could be the broadening out trade as nominal GDP growth lifts all boats.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Capex, Employment, Fed, productivity, rates, small caps | - | AI capital expenditure buildout is tracking historic investment cycles like railroads and telecommunications, with current cycle still in early innings. AI capex remains sustainable as it's funded by free cash flow rather than debt. The diffusion of AI throughout the economy is expected to drive productivity gains and corporate profitability improvements. Productivity growth is starting to boom as a result of AI and capital investment, approaching levels seen in the 1960s and 1990s. This productivity surge is expected to drive corporate profitability through margin expansion and create better employment conditions over time. Rate cuts are finally helping smaller companies, which could be the catalyst for the much-anticipated broadening out trade. Small businesses are showing spiking hiring plans as uncertainty fades, and nominal GDP growth particularly benefits smaller and cyclical firms. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | diversification, inflation, Macro, policy, rates | - | Horizon frames markets through a macro-driven lens, focusing on interest rates, inflation trends, and policy decisions as primary return drivers. The commentary stresses diversification and adaptability amid shifting global growth trajectories. Macro awareness remains critical as cross-currents between growth, inflation, and geopolitics persist. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 16 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 12 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 30 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
ProductivityNon-farm productivity surged in Q3, growing at an annual rate of 4.9%. Strong productivity in part driven by AI is boosting economic growth and positively impacting corporate earnings over the near-term, despite labor market stagnation. |
Economic Growth GDP Efficiency Labor Market Earnings | |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Macro |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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