The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Horizon Kinetics' Q2 2026 commentary emphasizes the power of long-term compounding and the critical importance of time horizons in value realization. The manager maintains conviction in securities exchanges despite 22-38% share price declines, viewing them as resilient century-old businesses now trading at valuations not seen since 2008 while demonstrating superior profit margins and earnings growth. The firm has reduced precious metals royalty positions due to valuation concerns, with companies trading at 2x NAV creating multiple compression risk. Bitcoin remains a core holding with the manager projecting $150,000-$270,000 by the April 2028 halving based on production costs and network value modeling. Land investments including TPL, PrairieSky, and LandBridge are highlighted for their perpetual compounding potential and inflation-beneficiary characteristics. The manager expresses significant concern about AI data center hyperscalers, noting deteriorating business models with the Mag 7 trading at 150x run-rate free cash flow. The commentary stresses that breaking compounding chains through premature selling, even for seemingly better opportunities, often results in lower long-term returns due to the non-linear nature of value accumulation over time.
The manager's core thesis centers on identifying rare business models capable of sustaining long-term financial compounding over extended time horizons, with particular focus on asset-light businesses like securities exchanges, royalty companies, and land holdings that possess economic persistence and pricing power. The manager emphasizes that the extraordinary benefits of compounding are non-linear and accelerate in later stages, requiring patient capital and resistance to breaking the compounding chain through premature selling. Key portfolio themes include securities exchanges as century-old resilient businesses now trading at crisis-era valuations, Bitcoin as programmed money with predictable supply dynamics and network value growth, land as perpetual assets with shrinking per-capita supply, and positioning for the structural shift from disinflation to inflation through hard commodity exposure.
The manager maintains a patient, long-term oriented stance focused on allowing compounding to work over extended time horizons. While acknowledging near-term volatility across holdings including exchanges, Bitcoin, and land-based investments, the manager expresses confidence that understanding the time function of compounding and maintaining discipline will lead to superior outcomes. The manager sees structural opportunities in the shift from disinflation to inflation, the expansion of blockchain-based financial infrastructure, and the persistent undervaluation of asset-light businesses with long-duration revenue streams. The tone is measured and analytical, emphasizing the importance of business model analysis and fundamental valuation over short-term price movements.
As of Aug 4, 2026
Founded in 1994 by Murray Stahl, Steven Bregman, Peter Doyle, Tom Ewing, and John Meditz, Horizon Kinetics has evolved from a private investment adviser to a publicly traded asset management firm (OTC: HKHC) following a 2024 reverse merger. The firm comprises over 70 employees with exceptional industry experience, averaging more than 20 years in financial services and over 12 years of tenure at Horizon Kinetics. This stable leadership structure has remained largely intact since founding, providing continuity in investment philosophy and approach. The founding team brings decades of combined experience, with Murray Stahl overseeing the Investment Committee with over 40 years of investing experience.
Horizon Kinetics employs a fundamental value, contrarian-oriented investment philosophy that emphasizes extending investment time horizons as a core strategy for achieving superior returns. The firm argues that short-term investment approaches prevalent in modern financial markets produce sub-optimal results, and that extending the investment timeframe allows for wider opportunities and valuation ranges. Central to their approach is the 'Equity Yield Curve' concept, which illustrates significant return potential on securities overlooked due to investors' focus on short-term gains. The firm focuses on securities exhibiting idiosyncratic risk and pursues absolute returns rather than relative benchmark tracking, resulting in concentrated portfolios. They prioritize undervaluation, owner-operated companies with significant insider capital at risk, hidden or dormant assets, and corporate spin-offs.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positions in named holdings with detailed fundamental analysis and explicit sizing language. The letter discusses specific positions like TPL (held for 30+ years), ICE (20-year track record), and Bitcoin with detailed valuation frameworks and price targets ($150,000-$270,000 by 2028). The manager provides specific position sizing evidence including AutoNation's 58% share buyback and Penske's 50%+ inside ownership. The willingness to hold through 40-53% drawdowns in TPL and 22-38% declines in exchanges demonstrates conviction in the underlying thesis. However, the manager also shows flexibility by reducing gold royalties when valuations became extended, and acknowledges uncertainty around AI hyperscaler outcomes. The letter contains some hedging language around future scenarios but maintains clear directional views on core holdings. The conviction is based on business model analysis and fundamental valuation rather than market timing, with explicit multi-decade time horizons.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Horizon sees US economic resilience despite negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with strong balance sheets and rising real wages. Private credit stress is contained to...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Horizon sees US economic resilience despite negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with strong balance sheets and rising real wages. Private credit stress is contained to...
Capital Deployment
The manager is in a net harvesting mode rather than deployment mode. The primary capital allocation activity discussed is the reduction or sale of precious metals royalty positions due to valuation concerns, representing capital being pulled back from previously held positions. While the manager participated in the LandBridge IPO in July 2024 and mentions a few other recent IPOs (WaterBridge, White Hawk Minerals), these are described as past actions rather than current deployment. The emphasis throughout the letter is on maintaining existing positions and allowing compounding to work rather than actively deploying new capital. The manager explicitly cautions against selling existing holdings to buy new opportunities, noting it takes seven years to break even after taxes. No discussion of cash levels or active buying programs. The overall stance is preservation and patience with selective harvesting where valuations have become extended.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Horizon sees US economic resilience despite negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with strong balance sheets and rising real wages. Private credit stress is contained to...
Language Signal
The language throughout the letter is balanced between opportunity identification and risk acknowledgment. Positive language includes 'extraordinary benefits of compounding,' 'resilient businesses,' 'superior profit margins,' and 'structural opportunities.' Negative language includes 'rapidly deteriorating business model,' 'extreme valuations,' 'valuation compression risk,' and 'systemic misallocation.' The manager uses cautious framing around AI hyperscalers ('problematic economics,' 'negative free cash flow') and ETF distortions ('artificial bifurcation,' 'misrepresentative'). However, the letter also contains constructive language around exchanges ('adapting,' 'expanding,' 'innovating') and Bitcoin ('on schedule,' 'predictable'). The overall tone is analytical and measured rather than directionally bullish or bearish, with roughly equal weight given to opportunities and concerns.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Horizon sees US economic resilience despite negative headlines. The consumer remains healthy with strong balance sheets and rising real wages. Private credit stress is contained to...
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities in defined areas rather than a broad opportunity set. The letter identifies specific pockets of value including exchanges trading at crisis-era valuations despite superior fundamentals, Bitcoin positioned for the 2028 halving catalyst, and land-based investments offering inflation protection. The manager notes that ETF distortions have created opportunities in excluded companies trading at 'anomalously favorable pricing' due to liquidity and size constraints. However, the manager has reduced gold royalties due to lack of attractive new opportunities at current valuations, and expresses concern about AI hyperscaler valuations limiting opportunities in that sector. The overall characterization is of a market requiring selectivity and patience, with good ideas available but not abundant. The manager emphasizes finding businesses that 'don't fit standard business models' and are 'not being efficiently priced' rather than describing a target-rich environment across sectors.
Time Horizon
The manager demonstrates an exceptionally long time horizon with explicit multi-decade thinking. The letter discusses TPL as a 30+ year holding, references ICE's 20-year earnings growth track record, and projects Bitcoin value to 2028 and beyond using models extending to 2033. The manager emphasizes that land is 'a perpetuity, the longest-lived of assets, and can compound forever' and discusses PrairieSky's royalty contracts extending 20+ years. The entire commentary is structured around the theme that 'the great power of compounded earnings growth could not be achieved except by holding to a very long-horizon, unbroken chain of it.' The manager explicitly cautions against breaking the compounding chain and notes it takes seven years just to break even when selling to buy a 25% faster-growing opportunity. The discussion of power law functions and non-linear value accumulation reinforces that the manager is focused on decade-plus time horizons. There is no discussion of near-term catalysts driving urgency, and the manager explicitly states 'patient inactivity is hard, demanding, and exhausting work.'
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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