Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | - | 28.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 28.5% | 11.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | - | 28.5% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 28.5% | 11.8% |
Horos Asset Management delivered strong 2025 returns with their international and Iberian strategies posting 28.5% and 42.9% respectively, bringing cumulative returns over 13+ years to 409% and 355%. The manager warns that U.S. markets are trading at historically elevated valuations approaching dot-com bubble levels, with extreme concentration in mega-cap stocks and distortions from passive investing reaching 65% of equity assets. He highlights the AI investment boom as potentially creating a rational bubble where companies invest aggressively despite overinvestment risks. Private AI companies are raising capital at unprecedented valuations without products, with some potentially facing $500 billion in losses by 2030. The manager expects 2026 to test market appetite for speculative valuations as major AI companies go public. Meanwhile, precious metals surged with gold up 65% and silver up 145% as investors sought protection against inflation and sovereign debt concerns. Horos continues their value approach, seeking temporarily undervalued companies while avoiding overpriced U.S. markets, adding positions in Zigup and DIA while exiting Spartan Delta and Petershill Partners.
The manager advocates for value investing with common sense, seeking companies that are temporarily undervalued due to setbacks or negative sentiment while avoiding the overvalued U.S. market driven by AI speculation and passive investing distortions.
The manager expects 2026 to be a key year for gauging investment community appetite for speculative AI companies, particularly as major players go public. He remains cautious on U.S. market valuations and continues seeking undervalued opportunities in companies facing temporary challenges.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 7GE GR, AER, AMG, METC, SDE CN, TGS | - | - | - |
| Oct 25 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 6989 HK, NPH GR, ONEX CN | - | - | - |
| Jul 8 2023 | 2023 Q2 | 39A GR, AAPL, ARHI, AZM IM, ENO SM, GOOG, MEL SM, META, MSFT, NVDA, TGS, TLGO SM | - | - | - |
| Apr 30 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ARHI, ATYM LN, MG, SDE CN, TGS | - | - | - |
| Nov 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 7GA GR, AER, AM FP, COOL NO, GAMI, PDG LN, SON1 SW, VRLA FP | - | - | - |
| Jun 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALGIL FP, ANIOY, AUB FP, FIH/U CN, GCO SM, LNA FP, MG, NPH GR, NPN SJ, REN SM | - | - | - |
| Oct 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMG, BRK/A, CATO, NOAH, PLX FP | - | - | - |
| Aug 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, LBTYA, NVDA, TSLA, ZM | - | - | - |
| Jan 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | EK5 GR, LBTYA, LSYN CN, NOAH, NPH GR, PLX FP, ZEG LN | - | - | - |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AER, ANE SM, APPL, JUP LN, NEON, PLX FP, SDE CN, SDRL, ZEG | - | - | - |
| Aug 5 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Management Quality, Thematic Investing, Value Investing | - | - |
| Nov 5 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 86.HK, ALNT SM, AMG, BIDU, PLX NA, PYPL, SOP FP, XPRO | Artificial Intelligence, Bubble risk, Capital Cycle, Energy Demand, Tech Valuations | - | The commentary details unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure and speculative valuations reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. Massive infrastructure investments by major tech companies raise concerns about… |
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0086.HK, AAPL, AMZN, ANE.PA, AYV.PA, AZM.MI, DIA.MC, ERG.MC, GEST.MC, GOOG, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NPSNY, NVDA, ONEX.TO, ORCL, TCEHY, TGS, TSLA | AI, Bubble, Concentration, Europe, gold, inflation, Passive investing, value |
AER NPSNY ZIG LN ZEG LN PLX FP SDE CN TCEHY |
The manager discusses the massive investment in AI infrastructure by tech companies, warning of potential overinvestment and bubble dynamics. He compares the current AI race… |
| - | Tidefall Capital Management | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Value Investing |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
GoldGold reached record highs above $5,000 per ounce but silver's dramatic rally has triggered a sell signal. Historical pattern suggests both metals may enter 2-3 year correction period. Central bank demand remained strong at 863 tonnes for 2025, though China purchases slowed significantly. |
Precious Central Banks ETFs Debasement | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
Passive InvestingThe manager highlights how passive investing has reached nearly 65% of US equity assets, contributing to market distortions including reduced liquidity, increased volatility, and further concentration in mega-cap stocks. US equity index funds attracted around $650 billion in 2025 while actively managed funds saw record outflows approaching $1 trillion. |
Index Funds Market Concentration Liquidity Volatility Capital Flows | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | TCEHY | Tencent Holdings Ltd | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, China, Gaming, platform, Regulation | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | AER | AerCap Holdings N.V. | Industrials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aircraftleasing, Assetvalue, buybacks, capital allocation, undervaluation | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | NPSNY | Naspers Ltd. | Communication Services | Internet Content & Information | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, capital allocation, discount, holding company, Sentiment | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | ZIG LN | Zigup plc | Industrials | Rental & Leasing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | capital discipline, Cost synergies, Incentives, undervaluation, Vehicle leasing | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Telecom Services | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, dividends, restructuring, Special situations, Telecom | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | PLX FP | Pluxee SA | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bear | Euronext Stock Exchange | Brazil, Margins, Payments, Regulation, uncertainty | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Javier Ruiz | SDE CN | Spartan Delta Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Energy cycle, Execution, exit, natural gas, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | AAPL shares rose in 4Q25 following better-than-feared iPhone 17 sell-through trends and stronger Services momentum. The company reported that early adoption of its on-device AI features exceeded internal expectations, particularly in North America and Europe, where attach rates for Pro models remained elevated. Wearables also returned to growth, helped by new health features and improved battery life. |
| AMZN | This quarter, we took profits in our hyperscaler portfolio companies (Amazon and Google) and increased our position in NVIDIA. |
| DIA.MC | The other new addition during the period was Spanish supermarket chain DIA. As you may know, this company has been part of Horos Value Iberia in recent years, where we have achieved strong returns. |
| ERG.MC | This quarter, we increased our investment in Ercros following the announcement made in mid-December by the Portuguese company Bondalti to lower the acceptance threshold of its takeover bid for the Spanish chemical firm from 75% to 50%. |
| GEST.MC | Gestamp 3.7% Industrial |
| GOOG | Alphabet's Q4 performance marks a significant triumph, characterized by a rare beat and raise narrative across all critical business segments. The company's recent earnings report was driven by a balanced contribution from its legacy Search and YouTube divisions, with Google Cloud emerging as the standout performer. Cloud's revenue growth reached an impressive 34%, and it boasts an extraordinary $155 billion backlog, a nearly double increase compared to the previous quarter. This remarkable transformation has propelled Cloud from a margin drag to a high-octane profit center. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NPSNY | We view Naspers as a structural arbitrage. It provides look-through ownership of premier technology assets, most notably Tencent, while trading at a steep discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). Management's open-ended repurchase program launched in 2022 and has reduced the free float of Naspers by 28% and driven more than 20% accretion in NAV per share. Naspers' 52.3% split-adjusted gain in 2025 largely reflected buyback-driven discount compression. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| TCEHY | Tencent underperformed relative to broader markets as China tech sentiment softened amid liquidity tightening and profit-taking after strong calendar year performance. |
| TGS | TGS 5.3% Oil & Gas |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||