| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.7% | - | -16.2% |
Tristan Waine is concentrating his portfolio from 17 to 8-12 holdings as he returns to full-time employment, purchases a first home, and expects a child. The portfolio declined 14.1% year to date, but this was driven entirely by valuation compression rather than business deterioration—look-through earnings rose 21% while multiples fell from 26.7x to 17.8x. In July, he exited five lower-conviction holdings including IFCA, Autocount, Miroku, Fiducian, and Info-Tech. He added QuickFee earlier based on profitability and dividend intentions. The manager identified several positions with limited shelf-life including Banqup (timeline to end-2028), QuickFee (expected delist), and Getbusy/Reckon (sale incentives by decade-end). His 12 higher-conviction names warrant skewed sizing and include founder-owned software companies (Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, Avant) and broadly-owned professional services firms (Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial, DSW Capital, Kelly Partners). He favors long-term business cases over short-term flips and plans minimal new idea sourcing going forward.
Concentrate capital in 8-12 high-conviction, founder-owned or broadly-owned businesses with strong ownership structures and long-term resilience, while reducing activity due to life priorities and letting positions compound over time.
Manager plans to dramatically reduce activity and let positions run with minimal new idea sourcing. Timeline set for Banqup until end of 2028 to observe impact of e-invoicing mandates. Expects QuickFee to delist within a few years and potential sales of Getbusy and Reckon businesses by end of decade. Focus is on long-term business cases rather than short-term flips, with preference for founder-owned software and broadly-owned professional services firms.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 4374.T, AFL.AX, AVN.AX, DSW.L, ELXR.L, FSA.AX, GETB.L, KPG.AX, MHA.L, PFG.AX, QFEE.AX, RKN.AX | Australia, Concentration, Founder-owned, Professional Services, small caps, software, value | - | Waine is concentrating to 8-12 high-conviction positions amid major life changes. Portfolio down 14% year-to-date entirely from multiple compression—earnings up 21% while valuations fell from 27x to 18x. Exited five names in July, favoring founder-owned software and broadly-owned professional services with strong ownership structures. Plans minimal activity, letting positions compound long-term rather than sourcing new ideas. |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NFD.DE | Australia, Germany, Performance, Quality, small caps, value | ELIX LN | Small Australian fund delivering 16% net returns since inception through quality stock selection. Recent weakness from Asiro holding offset by strong performance elsewhere. Manager replacing positions strategically, adding German platform Netfonds. High fixed costs currently drag performance but should improve with scale. Strong long-term track record with low market correlation suggests sustainable alpha generation capability. |
| Jul 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ALS.TO, BRVO.V, ELE.V, KLD.V, KRY.V, LRA.V, RDG.V, SME.V, STRR.V | Brazil, Canada, Copper, Development, Exploration, gold, Mining, royalties |
DSW LN ELIX LN CAF AU 9928 JP FSA AU SEQ AU |
MJG Capital delivered 35.77% first-half returns as natural resources positioned for outperformance amid unsustainable US equity market concentration. Portfolio benefits from copper exposure, PGM price recovery, and crypto capital entering mining via Tether's Elemental Altus investment. Manager maintains disciplined bottom-up approach targeting quality management teams and assets, expecting continued alpha generation as investment capital rotates toward neglected sectors. |
| Apr 4 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BEG LN, COG AU, DSW LN, LIT LN, SYZ CN, UPG BB | - | - | |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AVT.T, BVS.AX, FNX.AX, ORCH.L, PBEE.L, PPE.AX, SWF.AX | active management, global, small caps, software, Specialty Finance, value | - | Hurdle Rate delivered 21.6% returns in 2024 through concentrated value investing in global small-caps. Manager Waine focuses on absolute returns over market-relative performance, maintaining high portfolio turnover to capitalize on mispriced securities. Key holdings span software, specialty finance, and Australian businesses trading below intrinsic value, targeting 20% compound annual returns despite elevated market valuations. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 7378.T, AFL.AX, ARC.AX, FNX.AX, GETB.L, ORCH.L, PBEE.L | Australia, Concentration, Professional Services, small caps, United Kingdom, value |
PBEE.L FNX.AX AFL.AX ORCH.L GETB.L 7378.T |
Hurdle Rate delivered 7.6% in Q1 through concentrated small-cap investing in professional services. Manager added Pensionbee on US expansion, exited Finexia on management concerns, and opportunistically bought Orchard Funding post-fraud selloff. Portfolio rebalancing continues toward 10-20 position concentration targeting 20% annual post-tax returns through specialized expertise in accounting and advisory sectors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Portfolio ConcentrationManager is deliberately reducing portfolio from 17 holdings to 8-12 names due to life changes including new job, home purchase, and expecting a child. Exited five lower-conviction holdings (IFCA, Autocount, Miroku, Fiducian, Info-Tech) in July and identified additional names with limited shelf-life. Focus is shifting toward higher-conviction, founder-owned businesses with long-term appeal rather than short-term flips. |
Concentration Portfolio Management Conviction Founder-owned |
Founder-owned SoftwareManager expresses strong preference for founder-owned software companies viewed as resilient, including Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, and Avant Group. These are among the 12 higher-conviction names warranting a skew in sizing. The manager sees these as long-term holds despite the advent of artificial intelligence. |
Software Founder-owned Technology | |
Professional ServicesManager particularly likes the ownership structure of broadly-owned professional services firms including Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial Group, DSW Capital, and Kelly Partners. These are identified as higher-conviction names for long-term holding. The manager values aligned ownership and motivated management in this sector. |
Professional Services Ownership Structure Financial Services | |
Valuation CompressionPortfolio down 16.2% year to date with very little decline attributable to business performance. Look-through earnings across seventeen holdings rose 21%, while the multiple paid fell from 26.7 times to 17.8 times. Twelve of seventeen companies earned more than at the start of the year, indicating market-driven multiple compression rather than fundamental deterioration. |
Valuation Multiples Earnings | |
| 2025 Q3 |
QualityThe manager focuses on quality businesses with strong fundamentals, evidenced by investments in companies with solid cash positions and reasonable valuations. Asiro maintains 1.7 billion in net cash despite recent weakness, while Netfonds exhibits traits similar to past successful investments including platform aggregation and growing owned-product mix. |
Cash Generation Fundamentals Platform Aggregation Profitability |
| 2025 Q2 |
CopperCopper remains the highest weighting by metal at 35% of the portfolio across six holdings. Each copper-focused investment presents opportunity for share price appreciation through drilling, permitting success, or M&A activity without reliance on further copper price increases. |
Copper Mining Development Permitting M&A |
GoldGold comprises 23% of portfolio allocation. The manager notes that approximately 70% of MSCI World Index is now weighted to US equities, similar to the 1960s Nifty Fifty period, suggesting potential rotation into neglected asset classes like gold. |
Gold Royalties Mining Precious Metals | |
CryptoTether's acquisition of controlling stake in Elemental Altus marks the first occasion that crypto capital has found its way into the mining sector in any significant manner. This could herald broader non-traditional mining capital entering the sector. |
Crypto Tether Mining Capital | |
Platinum Group MetalsPalladium and platinum comprise approximately 75% of the value of Bravo's Luanga deposit. Palladium is up 25% in 2025 while platinum has appreciated 55%, recently exceeding $1400 per ounce for the first time since late 2014. |
Platinum Palladium PGM Mining | |
Junior MinersThe partnership focuses on backing talented, ethical, and well-incentivized teams focused on assets that provide enough scale to matter at reasonable valuations. This bottom-up, people-first approach to security selection has generated alpha in both poor and neutral market environments. |
Junior Miners Exploration Development Management | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueManager focuses on purchasing securities at attractive valuations, often trading below book value or at low earnings multiples. Multiple investments were made based on companies trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, such as Orchard Funding at 0.5 times tangible book value despite 9% average ROE. |
Value Discount Book Value Earnings Multiple Intrinsic Value |
SoftwareSignificant exposure to software companies across different geographies including Hungarian accounting software Kulcs-Soft, Japanese consolidated accounting software Avant Group, and UK pension software PensionBee. These companies often have recurring revenue models and strong market positions in their respective niches. |
Software SaaS Accounting Enterprise Software Recurring Revenue | |
Specialty FinanceMultiple investments in specialized lending businesses including Orchard Funding Group's instalment plans for insurance and fees, and Finexia's alternative investment solutions. These companies operate in niche markets with specific expertise and often generate attractive net interest margins. |
Specialty Finance Lending Alternative Finance Net Interest Margin Niche Markets | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Small CapsThe fund focuses on smaller companies with less sophisticated shareholders, leveraging the manager's advantage in professional and financial services. The portfolio targets 10-20 companies with a specialised game selection approach to limit competition. |
Microcaps Concentration Specialization Competition Sophistication |
Professional ServicesThe manager leverages experience in accounting and advice industries by investing in professional and financial services firms and their stakeholders including service providers, software, staffing, and education. AF Legal acquisition demonstrates this focus on complementary legal services. |
Legal Services Accounting Advisory Specialization Expertise |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | ELIX LN | Elixirr International plc | Industrials | Consulting Services | Bull | NYSE | acquisition, Consulting, Eps accretion, expansion, growth, Margins, valuation | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | DSW LN | DSW Capital plc | Industrials | Professional Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | asset-light, cashflow, Franchising, growth, Margins, Professional, services, small-cap | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | ELIX LN | Elixirr International plc | Industrials | Professional Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, cashflow, Consulting, growth, Margins, Re-rating, services | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | CAF AU | Centrepoint Alliance Limited | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Advice, consolidation, Margins, platform, Regulation, Scalability, Wealth | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | 9928 JP | Miroku Jyoho Service Co., Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cash, compounding, Japan, SMEs, Software, Stickiness, Subscription | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | FSA AU | FSA Group Limited | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, consumer, Counter-cyclical, Finance, founder-led, Insolvency, underwriting | Login |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tristan Waine | SEQ AU | Sequoia Financial Group Limited | Financials | Capital Markets | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | exit, Governance, Integration, Margins, platform, Volatility, Wealth | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | PBEE.L | PensionBee Group plc | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | digital platform, financial technology, Geographic Expansion, growth, Pension Management, US Expansion | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | FNX.AX | Finexia Financial Group Limited | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bear | Australian Securities Exchange | asset management, Australia, Distribution, Management Quality, Private Credit, turnaround | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | AFL.AX | AF Legal Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Specialized Consumer Services | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | acquisition, Australia, Contested Wills, Family Law, Legal Services, Value, working capital | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | ORCH.L | Orchard Funding Group plc | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Bridging Loans, Fraud Provision, Property Finance, specialist lending, Take-private Risk, UK, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | GETB.L | GetBusy plc | Information Technology | Application Software | Neutral | London Stock Exchange | Accounting Software, ARPU, Churn, Document management, R&D Tax Credits, SaaS, UK | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Hurdle Rate | 7378.T | ASIRO Co., Ltd. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | capital allocation, growth, IT services, Japan, Revenue Growth, System Integration | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| QFEE.AX | Before deciding to do this I did purchase shares in QuickFee given their ongoing profitability following their US pay-now divestment, and their intention to pay out large dividends going forward, far removed from their growth at all costs approach of the past. I suspect that QuickFee will delist in some way or another within the next few years. |
| MHA.L | I particularly see myself holding the broadly-owned firms for a long time to come, despite the advent of artificial intelligence. I really like the ownership structure of Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial Group, and DSW Capital. |
| ELXR.L | I particularly see myself holding the broadly-owned firms for a long time to come, despite the advent of artificial intelligence. I really like the ownership structure of Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial Group, and DSW Capital. |
| PFG.AX | I particularly see myself holding the broadly-owned firms for a long time to come, despite the advent of artificial intelligence. I really like the ownership structure of Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial Group, and DSW Capital. |
| AFL.AX | I am not sure that AF Legal has an executive team or shareholder base that lends itself to a 'very' long-term hold either but am willing to hold that so long as the execution continues. |
| AVN.AX | Then there are founder-owned software companies I think are resilient including Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, and Avant Group. |
| DSW.L | I particularly see myself holding the broadly-owned firms for a long time to come, despite the advent of artificial intelligence. I really like the ownership structure of Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial Group, and DSW Capital. |
| RKN.AX | Getbusy and Reckon both have incentives to have part or all of their business sold-off by the end of this decade. |
| 4374.T | Then there are founder-owned software companies I think are resilient including Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, and Avant Group. |
| GETB.L | Getbusy and Reckon both have incentives to have part or all of their business sold-off by the end of this decade. |
| KPG.AX | Kelly Partners less so, but, provided that Brett continues to be a major shareholder and motivated CEO I would like to stay around for a long time as well. |
| FSA.AX | The remaining holdings are also founder-owned including Bridge Consulting, Asiro, and FSA Group. These final 12 holdings are the higher conviction names and warrant a skew in sizing. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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