| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.15% | 2.23% | 10.11% |
The iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF gained 2.23% in Q2 2026 and 10.11% year-to-date, outperforming the SG CTA Index. The fund navigated an extremely volatile market environment characterized by war, commodity swings, AI-driven speculation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The manager emphasizes that the macro environment has become more unpredictable, with equity markets increasingly resembling venture capital where valuations are driven by wild predictions and small assumption changes can trigger violent price moves. Performance was driven primarily by long exposure to emerging markets, which rallied strongly, and short JPY/USD positioning as the yen weakened. Crude oil was the primary detractor as long positioning suffered during a sharp reversal, prompting the strategy to meaningfully reduce exposure. The manager argues that diversification and liquidity are essential for robust multi-asset portfolios, noting that bonds have failed as diversifiers over the past decade with 55% correlation to equities and 24% max drawdown. The fund was built to address both needs as allocators prepare for coming storms in this meme stock environment.
This managed futures fund is designed to provide diversification and liquidity in an increasingly unpredictable and volatile market environment where traditional diversifiers like bonds have failed.
The manager expects the unpredictable macro environment and meme stock conditions to continue for the foreseeable future, driving ongoing market volatility. The tone is cautious about market conditions but confident in the fund's ability to provide diversification and liquidity benefits that allocators need to weather coming storms.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | commodities, currencies, diversification, emerging markets, Macro, Managed Futures, volatility | - | The iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF delivered 2.23% in Q2 and 10.11% year-to-date, outperforming benchmarks in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market environment. Emerging markets exposure and currency positioning drove gains while crude oil detracted. The manager positions the fund as a critical diversifier and liquidity provider as traditional bonds have failed allocators, with the meme stock environment expected to persist. |
| May 20 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, dividends, energy, Geopolitical, Iran, private credit, technology, value | - | Berkshire Dividend Growth outperformed during a volatile Q1 marked by value rotation and Iranian geopolitical crisis. Energy surged 30-40% while tech fell 20%+ on AI disruption concerns. Multiple portfolio holdings raised dividends significantly, with the fund maintaining focus on quality dividend growers that compound through uncertainty. |
| Mar 1 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAP, AMKR, APPF, MANH, NVDA, PRM, RBC, UAMY | AI, Biotech, defense, growth, healthcare, Quality, small caps, technology | - | iMGP Small Company Fund lagged in 2025 due to underexposure to momentum stocks and biotech during speculative rallies. Defense and AI themes drove key winners like Antimony Corporation and Amkor Technology. Managers maintain focus on quality growth companies with strong management teams while improving sector positioning and exit discipline for 2026. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
VolatilityThe manager emphasizes that the macro environment has become more unpredictable, driving market volatility. The equity market increasingly resembles venture capital with valuations driven by wild predictions of future profits, creating a killing field for losers. Small changes in assumptions around data centers or token prices can drive violent price moves, and this meme stock environment is expected to continue. |
Volatility Macro Unpredictability |
DiversificationThe manager argues that diversification and liquidity are necessary ingredients to build a robust multi-asset portfolio to weather coming storms. Over the past decade, bonds have failed as a diversifier with a 55% correlation to equities and 24% max drawdown. Allocators need better diversifiers, and this fund was built to help on both fronts. |
Diversification Liquidity Multi-asset | |
AIAI is mentioned as part of the volatile market environment with leveraged and frenzied AI trades in Q2 and rolling fears of AI disruption in Q1. The manager frames AI as part of the venture capital-like equity market where valuations are driven by wild predictions of profits years in the future, subject to violent price moves based on small changes in assumptions. |
AI Valuations Disruption | |
Emerging MarketsLong exposure to emerging markets was the leading contributor to performance in Q2, rallying strongly over the quarter. This was the primary driver of the fund's equity gains during the period. |
Emerging Markets Equities Performance | |
OilCrude oil was the primary detractor from performance in Q2. Long positioning suffered as oil prices retraced sharply following a brutal reversal. The strategy meaningfully reduced its exposure as the decline unfolded. |
Oil Commodities Positioning | |
DollarThe return of King Dollar was noted as a feature of Q2. Short JPY/USD exposure contributed positively to performance as the yen weakened, more than offsetting losses on the EUR/USD position. |
Dollar Currencies JPY | |
| 2026 Q1 |
DividendsThe fund focuses on dividend-paying companies that raised dividends during the quarter, including Dell (+20%), Schwab (+18%), and Waste Management (+14.5%). The manager emphasizes that dividend income continues to grow even during market volatility and headline risks. |
Dividends Income Growth Stability |
AIAI is described as disrupting the software industry by automating core functions across software, consulting, and data services. The manager notes that the software industry has invented a toolset that now threatens to devour its own market, with companies like Anthropic leading this disruption. |
AI Disruption Software Automation | |
Private CreditThe manager expresses concern about the $1.5-$2 trillion private credit market, questioning loan quality, transparency, and whether capital was deployed primarily to generate sponsor fees. High-profile failures have raised questions about underlying loan values and underwriting standards. |
Private Credit Credit Stress Risk | |
OilOil jumped above $100 following Iranian airstrikes, with the energy sector leading the quarter with 30-40% returns. The fund's energy positions rose sharply during this period. |
Oil Energy Geopolitical | |
ValueValue stocks began to rally during the quarter, with energy, staples, industrials, and materials posting double-digit returns. Value peaked up 7% before Iranian airstrikes, while growth was down 5% over the same period. |
Value Rotation Outperformance | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI emergence has created market hysteria and broad software sell-offs despite limited real-world automation success. Manager believes dominant vertical software platforms can successfully reinvent themselves for an agentic world and fend off AI-native startups through domain expertise and mission-critical systems integration. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Automation Technology |
SoftwareSoftware sector treated as monolith awaiting AI disruption, but manager sees meaningful differentiation. Incumbents with engineering talent and proprietary data have structural advantages in deploying AI tools. Early adopters historically capture more economic benefits than infrastructure providers. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Technology Vertical Software | |
Small CapsLong-anticipated broadening out to small cap value industries has occurred, but fund's software overweight prevented participation in this leadership shift. Small cap value has outperformed while software has underperformed despite being cheaper than traditional value industrials. |
Small Cap Value Russell 2000 Market Leadership | |
HotelsChoice Hotels represents asset-light, high-margin hotel franchisor trading at distressed multiples due to cyclical headwinds. Company shifting portfolio toward higher-revenue segments like Extended Stay and international markets while potentially unlocking $700M in balance sheet capital for share buybacks. |
Hospitality Franchising Real Estate Travel |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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