| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 24.95% | -18.9% | -18.9% |
Infuse Partners experienced a challenging Q1 2026 with an 18.9% decline, underperforming the S&P 500's 4.3% drop. Manager Ryan Reeves attributes poor performance to underweighting the AI narrative's market impact and discusses two major portfolio losers. Duolingo faces short-term subscription deceleration but the manager believes AI will enable multiple growth S-curves, targeting 100 million paid subscribers at $100 annually. Ondo's LeakBot technology offers compelling unit economics for home insurers, with 150% ROI potential detecting water leaks that represent 6% of insurance premiums. Both companies face near-term execution challenges but offer potential 10x returns. The manager emphasizes balancing conviction with humility, establishing clear exit criteria including 20% daily user growth threshold for Duolingo and 300,000 customer breakeven for Ondo. Position sizing and adding on strength with improved data points remain key risk management strategies. Despite short-term volatility, the long-term strategy focuses on hitching rides with exceptional entrepreneurs building high-quality, fast-growing companies at attractive valuations.
Focus on fastest-growing, highest-quality companies run by world's best entrepreneurs at attractive valuations, with particular emphasis on AI-enabled education technology and innovative insurance technology solutions.
Manager maintains conviction in long-term thesis for both major holdings despite short-term headwinds. Expects potential 10x returns from both Duolingo and Ondo if execution succeeds, but acknowledges near-term challenges and possibility of course adjustment based on new data points.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 2026 | 2026 Q1 | DUOL, ONDO.L | AI, conviction, growth, insurance, small caps, technology, value |
DUOL ONDO.L |
Infuse Partners dropped 18.9% in Q1 2026, hurt by underweighting AI narrative impact. Two major holdings Duolingo and Ondo face short-term headwinds but offer potential 10x returns through AI-enabled education and insurance leak detection technology respectively. Manager maintains conviction while establishing clear exit criteria and emphasizing position sizing discipline for risk management. |
| Jan 13 2026 | 2025 Q4 | DUOL, MELI, NU, SNWV, TMDX | E-Commerce, Education, Fintech, growth, Latin America, long-term, Medical Devices, technology |
NU TMDX MELI DUOL |
Reeves liquidated fraud-hit Intellego but maintains conviction in core growth holdings. Nu expands super app model to Mexico, MercadoLibre outcompetes major platforms, TransMedics dominates organ transplants with operational scale. New Duolingo position capitalizes on exceptional engagement metrics after 70% decline. Strategy remains focused on exceptional entrepreneurs building high-quality, fast-growing companies for long-term compounding. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, ABBV, ACN, ADBE, ADP, ALGN, CMCSA, COST, CRM, EPAM, FIX, IT, JNJ, LRCX, MSFT, UNH, UNP, VST, VTRS, WMT | AI, Benchmarks, Concentration, free cash flow, international, Quality, small caps, value | TMDX US | Distillate Capital warns that AI-driven market concentration has created extreme valuations in benchmarks, with the S&P 500 more expensive than any time except the TMT bubble. Their systematic value approach trades at half the valuation of major benchmarks while growing fundamentals faster through disciplined rebalancing, finding opportunities in overlooked quality companies across market segments. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Biotechnology, growth, Quality, small caps, value | INTELLEGO | Infuse Partners delivered 52.67% Q2 returns through disciplined value investing focused on probability-tilting characteristics. Manager Ryan Reeves emphasizes buying scarce, high-quality businesses with aligned management at low cash flow multiples. The detailed Intellego case study demonstrates successful earnings-driven returns, growing from $60M to $250M valuation through fundamental business improvement rather than multiple expansion. |
| Apr 4 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AXON | Australia, Concentration, Selling, Tax Optimization, valuation | AXON | Infuse trimmed Axon after 80% annual returns due to valuation concerns, demonstrating disciplined selling. The fund holds a major position in an Australian pharmacy EDI company developing a marketplace platform with 10-bagger potential. Despite market volatility, portfolio companies show strong fundamentals and improving moats, with cash being deployed into new opportunities. |
| Jan 6 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AXON, HFG.DE, MELI, NU, NVDA, TSLA | Concentration, growth, LatAM, Quality, technology, value |
AXON INTEG.ST NU MELI SHEL.L TSLA HFG.DE NVDA |
Infuse Partners delivered 89.63% returns in 2024 through concentrated investing in high-growth, quality companies. Strong Latin American fintech positions in Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre drive performance alongside technology holdings. Manager plans to trim winner Axon on valuation while maintaining long-term focus on world-class compounding over 50 years. |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2024 Q3 | NVDA | growth, healthcare, Medical Devices, Quality, small caps, Sweden | INTEG.ST | Concentrated growth strategy targeting high-quality businesses at attractive valuations. Fund recovered from early struggles to match S&P 500 returns, up 69.8% year-to-date. Key holding Intellego is a Swedish UV dosimeter company with 80% gross margins serving healthcare disinfection markets, trading at 3x estimated 2025 EV/EBIT despite 30%+ growth potential. |
| Jul 2 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AKAM, ALRM, LYFT, MCD, META, MSFT, NET, UBER | Concentration, growth, Israel, software, technology, value | ALRM | Infuse recovered to match S&P 500 returns since inception through concentrated investing in quality growth companies. New position in Alarum, an Israeli proxy network provider, shows 70% growth and 38% free cash flow margins driven by AI data demand. Strong fundamentals but requires active monitoring given competitive risks and management's mixed track record. |
| Apr 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | IDT, INSP, NU, NVDA, SMTI, TSLA | AI, Brazil, Fintech, growth, Mexico, Quality, semiconductors, value | NU | Infuse delivered 31% returns in Q1 2024, led by Nu Holdings which tripled from entry despite reasonable 27x forward earnings for 60% growth. Manager added Nvidia position after missing the AI rally, believing semiconductors are shifting from cyclical to secular demand. Strategy focuses on fastest-growing, highest-quality businesses at attractive valuations with long-term patience. |
| Jan 11 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AXON, CELH, MELI, NU, SHEL.L, TSLA | Concentration, growth, LatAM, Quality, technology |
AXON ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM SHEL.L CELH ACGL|CHH|FDS|GWRE|IBKR|IDXX|MTN|SPOT|TSLA |
Concentrated six-stock portfolio targeting fast-growing, profitable, founder-led companies with dominant positions. Holdings span police technology, Brazilian fintech, Latin American e-commerce, home automation, energy drinks, and electric vehicles. Manager focuses on 3-5 year investment horizons with detailed growth projections for each position. Recently consolidated from diversified approach to focus on highest-conviction ideas. |
| Oct 4 2023 | 2023 Q3 | SHEL.BG | Concentration, Energy Efficiency, Europe, growth, IoT, Quality | - | Infuse concentrated into highest-conviction holdings after eliminating unprofitable positions. Primary focus is Shelly Group, a Bulgarian IoT home automation company growing 53% with 50%+ margins driven by European energy crisis. Company projects 40% growth through 2026 reaching $220M revenue. Strong competitive position through low-cost hardware and customizable software, trading at attractive valuation for quality growth profile. |
| Jul 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | MELI | E-Commerce, growth, LatAM, Quality, value | - | Infuse Asset Management details their quantitative investment framework using MercadoLibre as a case study. The Latin American e-commerce leader demonstrates strong fundamentals with 50% revenue growth and 28% returns on capital, successfully building an integrated payments and logistics ecosystem. Despite margin compression from business evolution, the company's strategic positioning in underbanked markets supports long-term value creation. |
| Apr 5 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AAPL, ABNB, AMZN, AXON, COST, CRM, CSU.TO, DDOG, HCC, INSP, LSPD.TO, LYFT, META, MO, MSI, ORCL, RUN, TDG, TDOC, TSM, UBER | Founder, growth, Quality, technology, value | AXON | Infuse Partners outperformed in Q1 2023 with a refined investment process focused on quality, growth, and valuation. Manager details comprehensive quality checklist and showcases Axon Enterprise as exemplary holding - a founder-led public safety technology leader with dominant market position, recurring revenue growth, and strong financials. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI narrative strongly affected market performance this quarter. Duolingo is leveraging AI to improve learning outcomes and enable better features like 'Explain My Answer'. The manager believes AI will help Duolingo stack multiple S-curves for growth re-acceleration rather than being a threat. |
Machine Learning Education Features Growth Technology |
WaterOndo Plc's LeakBot technology monitors residential water lines to detect small leaks for home insurers. Water-related claims represent 6% of home insurance premiums, creating significant ROI opportunities for insurers using leak detection technology. |
Insurance Technology Claims Detection Residential | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology earnings. Long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure reflects demographic pressures and labor scarcity. AI-related investment pace expected to slow from exceptionally fast levels. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure |
EarningsStrong corporate earnings drove market gains, particularly in technology and communication services. Consensus expects continued earnings growth in low-double-digit range. Returns will depend more on earnings durability than multiple expansion. |
Corporate Earnings Growth Technology Communication Services | |
RatesFederal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December to 3.5%-3.75%. Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and expects one more cut in 2026. Markets pricing in roughly two additional cuts to around 3%. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Bond Markets | |
DollarWeaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided notable tailwind for foreign assets. Dollar weakness helped boost international equity returns to U.S. dollar terms, with European equities gaining 35.4%. |
Currency International Foreign Assets Exchange Rates | |
VolatilityMarket volatility declined meaningfully since April's tariff episode. VIX and MOVE indices spiked after tariff announcement but moved back to stable levels. Lower volatility reflects less anxiety around trade policy and Fed policy. |
VIX MOVE Market Stability Trade Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes systematic value investing through free cash flow analysis, highlighting that their U.S. FSV strategy trades at a 6.1% FCF yield versus 3.9% for Russell 1000 Value and 3.1% for S&P 500. They focus on finding quality companies trading at attractive valuations while avoiding the valuation and concentration risks in major benchmarks. |
Free Cash Flow Valuation Systematic Rebalancing Quality Fundamentals |
AIThe letter discusses the AI bubble's impact on market concentration and valuations, noting that AI-related stocks have driven the S&P 500 to extreme concentration levels. The manager views this as creating opportunities in non-AI stocks that have been left behind despite strong fundamentals. |
Bubble Concentration Valuation Risk Market Leadership | |
QualityQuality is emphasized as a key investment criterion, particularly in small/mid-cap stocks where the manager excludes unprofitable companies. Their strategies focus on companies with stable cash flows, low debt levels, and consistent fundamental growth, which has historically outperformed but recently faced headwinds. |
Cash Flow Stability Debt Levels Profitability Fundamental Stability | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueManager emphasizes buying stocks at low multiples of cash flow as a probability-tilting characteristic. Discusses the importance of understanding business longevity when paying low multiples, noting that paying 10x cash flow requires the business to survive at least ten years to make money. |
Cash Flow Multiples Valuation Enterprise Value EBIT |
QualityEmphasizes the importance of dominant competitive positions, moats, and business irreplaceability. Discusses how truly scarce assets that are hard to replicate maintain value and improve investment odds through competitive advantages. |
Moat Competitive Position Scarce Assets Irreplaceability Business Quality | |
| 2025 Q1 |
MarketplacesThe fund holds an undisclosed Australian EDI company that is developing a marketplace allowing suppliers to directly target pharmacies. The marketplace could potentially handle $1 billion in transactions at a 4% take-rate, representing an $40 million opportunity that would be 80% of current enterprise value. |
EDI Pharmacy Australia B2B Software |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commerceMercadoLibre continues to spin its commerce/payments flywheel with fintech business now much larger than original e-commerce platform. Beautiful synergy exists as on-platform payments lower friction for commerce business and faster delivery times lead to more orders and payments. |
Marketplaces Payments FinTech Latin America Commerce |
FinTechNu Holdings is executing on becoming one of the largest companies in the world, surpassing 100 million customers and building out its superapp in Brazil. High income clients can book flights, shop, get loans, buy ETFs, exchange currency, and much more through the platform. |
Digital Banking Payments Brazil SuperApp Financial Services | |
AINvidia powers over 90% of AI workloads and is becoming increasingly important despite hyperscalers trying to save money through their own ASIC programs. The moat CUDA provides has been underestimated time and time again. |
Semiconductors GPUs Machine Learning Data Centers CUDA | |
| 2024 Q3 |
QualityManager emphasizes building a quality checklist and database of over 1,100 companies to identify special businesses with great management teams, barriers to entry, and consumer value surpluses. The focus is on fastest-growing, highest-quality businesses at low multiples, with quality being a key component of the Infuse Formula alongside growth and valuation. |
Quality Checklist Management Teams Barriers Consumer Value Special Companies |
HealthcareIntellego's dosimeter business is primarily healthcare-focused, representing roughly 70% of current business. The company sells UV dosimeters to hospitals for disinfection validation, with approximately 6,000 hospitals in the US and 30,000 in Europe representing the addressable market. Healthcare-associated infections cost $36,000 on average, making dosimeters act like insurance for validation and liability. |
UV Dosimeters Hospital Disinfection Healthcare Infections Validation Medical Devices | |
Medical DevicesIntellego specializes in UV dosimeters that change color based on UV light exposure, used primarily for healthcare disinfection validation. These paper cards sell for under $2 each with 95% gross margins, serving as validation tools for UVC light disinfection in hospitals and manufacturing applications. |
Dosimeters UV Light Disinfection Validation Tools Paper Cards | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe letter discusses how AI has created tailwinds for proxy networks as large language models need structured data from across the internet for training. This has driven demand for data scraping services that proxy networks enable. |
Data Training LLMs Scraping Networks |
Data PrivacyThe manager examines privacy and security risks facing proxy network companies, including potential litigation from platforms like Meta and X over terms of service violations and data scraping practices. |
Privacy Security Litigation Terms Compliance | |
SaaSThe discussion centers on software-as-a-service business models, particularly examining the trade-offs between returns on capital and cash flow generation in customer acquisition strategies. |
Software Subscription Recurring Retention Margins | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIManager discusses AI's transformative impact on semiconductor demand patterns, noting how AI is changing formerly cyclical semiconductor companies into more secular growth stories. The hyperscalers' need for AI chips could shift upgrade cycles from cyclical to secular demand patterns. |
Semiconductors Hyperscalers Demand Secular Chips |
SemiconductorsFocus on semiconductor industry transformation from cyclical to secular demand driven by AI applications. Manager notes historical cyclical nature of semis made low multiple purchases underperforming, but AI demand from hyperscalers could create more predictable secular growth. |
Cyclical Secular AI Hyperscalers Multiples | |
| 2023 Q4 |
E-commerceMercadoLibre maintains dominant position in Latin American e-commerce with competitive concerns about Amazon and Shopee diminishing as both companies retrench to focus on profitability. MELI continues investing in logistics and payments infrastructure to strengthen its flywheel. |
Latin America Logistics Payments Marketplaces Flywheel |
Electric VehiclesTesla positioned for significant growth with long-term goal of 20 million cars potentially yielding over $800 billion in revenue. Energy business hitting profitability inflection point while autonomy represents extremely attractive call option with potential for massive value creation. |
Autonomy Energy Storage Manufacturing Data Innovation | |
FinTechNu Holdings operates as dominant mobile bank in Brazil with over 90 million users, taking market share in credit cards while expanding into Mexico and Colombia. Strong management team led by incentivized founder David Velez driving growth. |
Mobile Banking Brazil Credit Cards Market Share Expansion | |
| 2023 Q3 |
IoTShelly Group operates in the IoT home automation space, selling relays and devices that enable customers to automate home functions. The company has grown 53% over the past 6 months with over 50% gross margins. Management predicts 40% growth for the next three years to reach $220 million in revenue by 2026. |
Home Automation IoT Energy Efficiency Smart Grid Industrial IoT |
Energy EfficiencyHigh energy prices in Europe are driving demand for Shelly's products which enable customers to save on energy bills through automation. The company's freemium app provides data on energy usage with personalized recommendations for additional savings. |
Energy Efficiency Smart Grid Home Automation Energy Storage | |
QualityThe manager emphasizes focusing on the highest-quality businesses that are defensible with potential to maintain high growth for extended timeframes. The fund maintains a database of 700 companies profiled and sorted by qualitative and quantitative factors, preferring to concentrate in the best companies rather than lower-quality opportunities. |
Quality Growth Value | |
| 2023 Q2 |
E-commerceMercadoLibre exemplifies the evolution of Latin American e-commerce from auction-based to integrated marketplace with payments, logistics, and financial services. The company has built a comprehensive ecosystem including MercadoPago payments, MercadoEnvios fulfillment, and MercadoCredito lending. Growth remains strong with 50% revenue growth in 2022 despite margin compression from business model evolution. |
Marketplaces Payments Logistics FinTech Latin America |
PaymentsMercadoPago has become central to MercadoLibre's strategy, addressing the 70% unbanked population in Latin America. Payment volume now exceeds merchandise volume by 3x as the platform expanded beyond e-commerce to offline merchants and other websites. The payments business carries lower margins but generates high returns on capital given the existing customer base. |
FinTech Digital Wallets Merchant Acquiring Latin America | |
| 2023 Q1 |
QualityManager outlines comprehensive 12-point quality checklist for evaluating businesses, emphasizing founder-led companies, competitive advantages, recurring revenue, and financial strength. Quality assessment is central to the investment process, combined with growth and valuation metrics to create the portfolio. |
Founder Moat Recurring Financial Management |
CybersecurityAxon Enterprise discussed as portfolio holding with body-worn cameras and Evidence.com cloud platform for law enforcement. Company dominates the public safety technology space with integrated hardware-software solutions and strong competitive positioning. |
Enforcement Cameras Evidence Safety Technology |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | DUOL | Duolingo Inc | Software - Application | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI-powered, Edtech, Freemium, Language learning, Mobile Learning, SaaS, subscription model, User growth | Login |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | ONDO.L | Ondo Plc | Scientific & Technical Instruments | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | B2B2C Model, Home Services, Insurance Technology, IoT Technology, network effects, patent protection, UK Technology, Water Detection | Login |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan Reeves | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Digital Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Digitalbanking, Fintech, scale, Superapp, underwriting | Login |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan Reeves | TMDX | TransMedics Group, Inc. | Health Care | Medical Devices | Bull | NASDAQ | healthcare, innovation, Logistics, scale, Transplants | Login |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan Reeves | MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | E-Commerce | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, Flywheel, Logistics, Payments, scale | Login |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | Ryan Reeves | DUOL | Duolingo, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Education Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Edtech, Engagement, growth, Subscriptions | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Ryan Reeves | TMDX US | TransMedics Group, Inc. | Health Care | Medical Devices | Bull | NASDAQ | growth, healthcare, innovation, Logistics, Margins, Medical devices, Transplants | Login |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | INTEG.ST | Intellego Technologies AB | Health Care Equipment & Services | Health Care Equipment | Bull | Nasdaq Stockholm | founder-led, growth, Healthcare Disinfection, high margins, Industrial Curing, Medical devices, small-cap, Swedish, turnaround, UV Dosimeters | Login |
| Jul 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | ALRM | Alarum Technologies Ltd | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, B2B software, cybersecurity, Data Scraping, growth, Israeli, Proxy Networks, SaaS, turnaround, Web Intelligence | Login |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, Colombia, consumer finance, credit cards, digital banking, Fintech, growth, Latin America, market share, Mexico | Login |
| Apr 5, 2023 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | Technology Hardware & Equipment | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | NASDAQ | Body Cameras, Cloud storage, Evidence Management, founder-led, Hardware-Software Integration, Law Enforcement Technology, market leader, Public safety, recurring revenue, SaaS | Login |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | - | Shelly Group | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Bulgarian Stock Exchange | Bulgaria, energy efficiency, Equity, Europe, growth, Hardware, Home automation, IoT, Software, technology | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | Technology Hardware & Equipment | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | NASDAQ | Body Cameras, founder-led, Hardware, international expansion, Law Enforcement Technology, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, Tasers | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM | Nu Holdings Ltd | Financial Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, credit cards, digital banking, Fintech, founder-led, Geographic Expansion, Latin America, market share gains, Mobile Banking | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM | MercadoLibre Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | competitive moat, dominant market position, e-commerce, Flywheel Effect, founder-led, Latin America, Logistics, Payments | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | SHEL.L | Shelly Group AD | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Bulgarian Stock Exchange | Amazon, Bulgaria, DTC, Electrical Relays, founder-led, High Growth, Home automation, IoT, Smart home, Walmart | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | ACGL|CHH|FDS|GWRE|IBKR|IDXX|MTN|SPOT|TSLA | Tesla Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, autonomous driving, data advantage, Dojo, Electric Vehicles, Elon Musk, energy storage, innovation, Optimus, robotics | Login |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | CELH | Celsius Holdings Inc | Consumer Staples | Soft Drinks | Bull | NASDAQ | Amazon, Counter-positioning, Energy drinks, Healthy Positioning, High Competition, international expansion, market share gains, Pepsi Partnership | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd | Financial Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, digital banking, financial services, Fintech, High Growth, Latin America, Mexico, Superapp | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | MELI | MercadoLibre Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | e-commerce, Fintech, High Growth, Latin America, marketplace, network effects, Payments | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | SHEL.L | Shelly Group AD | Technology Hardware & Equipment | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | London Stock Exchange | high conviction, IoT, Low Cost Manufacturing, Samsung Partnership, semiconductor chips, Smart home, TAM expansion | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | TSLA | Tesla Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Neutral | NASDAQ | AI, autonomous driving, cyclical industry, Electric Vehicles, Long-term Vision, Narrative Premium, robotics | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | HFG.DE | HelloFresh SE | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing | Bull | Frankfurt Stock Exchange | food distribution, founder-led, low valuation, Meal kits, Operational Leverage, Ready-to-Eat Meals, turnaround | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Technology Hardware & Equipment | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, competitive moat, CUDA, data centers, hyperscalers, semiconductors, technology infrastructure | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Neutral | NASDAQ | Body Cameras, Cloud software, Law Enforcement Technology, multiple expansion, Portfolio Management, profit-taking, valuation | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | INTELLEGO | Intellego | Health Care Equipment & Services | Health Care Equipment | Bull | Unknown | Chinese Distribution, Dosimeters, Equity, German Market, Healthcare Technology, manufacturing, Medical devices, patent protection, Photochromic Ink, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | Technology Hardware & Equipment | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bear | NASDAQ | Body Cameras, Cloud software, Conducted Energy Devices, government contracts, high valuation, Law Enforcement Technology, Trimming Position | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Infuse Partners | INTEG.ST | Intellego Technologies AB | Health Care Equipment & Services | Health Care Equipment | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | Dosimeters, High Growth, Medical devices, patent protection, Swedish Microcap, UV Technology, vertical integration | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| DUOL | We shared our initial thesis last quarter but the price has only plummeted. Essentially, there is a short term and a long term risk but I believe they are being conflated. The short term risk is that subscription bookings are decelerating as the company has pulled back on its unhinged marketing tactics and overmonetized its customer base while the long-term AI risk looms. It seems like investors are worried that AI is already slowing revenue but I'm making the bet this isn't the case. In fact, AI will enable better learning outcomes which the company is leaning into. User growth will be lumpy and I actually think it could dip and accelerate as more features like 'Explain My Answer' become free. Some companies aren't able to re-accelerate growth once it slows down whereas others have multiple S-curves they can stack on top of each other. The market seems to think Duolingo is the former but I think it's the latter as they harness the power of AI to improve their current courses and add other subject areas. If daily user growth dips below 20% and stays there for at least six months, I would have to seriously consider that my thesis is incorrect. In one year, if there are still no signs of re-acceleration, that new information would likely change my confidence in the long-term destination of the company. I think there is a very real scenario where Duolingo delivers on its supertutor-in-your-pocket vision and 100 million global paid subs at $100/year and 30% FCF margins results in $3 billion in annual free cash flow vs. the current enterprise value of $3.2 billion. |
| ONDO.L | The company's main product is called the LeakBot which they distribute through home insurers. The technology, which has a defensible patent, monitors the temperature of a residential main water line and the ambient air temperature surrounding the pipe. When no water is being used in the house for an extended period (like overnight), the water inside the pipe should naturally warm up and equalize with the room temperature. A slow leak, even one as small as five ml per minute, constantly draws in new water from the underground supply, which is colder than the indoor air. This constant flow prevents the pipe from ever warming up completely. The LeakBot uses algorithms that look for persistent, small temperature differences that repeat during quiet times. The company was started in the UK, where main water lines are actually inside the house due to the potential for freezing. The company is currently working on a version of the LeakBot that works with exterior water mains, but it should take about a year to commercialize. The incidence rate of a non-weather-related water claim for home insurance companies is between 1% and 1.5%, and the average cost associated with those claims is roughly $15,000. Using just 1%, the expected loss for the insurer is about $150 per year. In the US, for a single-family home, the average premium is about $2,500 per year, so these leaks represent about 6% of premiums in the home insurance industry. So when a home insurance company can pay $60 per year (the cost of LeakBot monitoring) to detect these leaks, the return on investment is quite significant. At a 1% incidence rate, you can see that the ROI is 150%. The break-even point, where it doesn't really make sense for the home insurer to use LeakBot, is an incidence rate of below 0.4%. But when you look at the data across many different states and many different insurers, the incidence rate is at least 1%, even when you exclude roof leaks and non-pipe-related leaks. The company is currently burning cash and will likely need to do another large raise at some point. The short term is very dependent on getting to more than 300,000 registered customers as that is the breakeven point my math suggests. If that takes longer than a year, I would be hesitant that insurers are really seeing a strong ROI. But there is also a clear scenario where 10 million homes means $600 million in revenue at 20% margins on a $28 million market cap. |
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