| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Global equity markets delivered exceptional returns in 2025 with the MSCI AC World Index gaining 22.3% despite significant headwinds from President Trump's aggressive tariff agenda and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The year was dominated by three key themes: AI investment reaching unprecedented levels with trillions in spending on data centers and infrastructure, trade policy disruptions as tariffs rose to 17% generating $30 billion monthly for the US Treasury, and a spectacular commodity rally led by gold's 65% gain. The 'anywhere but America' trade proved highly successful as international markets outperformed US indices, with emerging markets up 34% and European equities delivering their best returns since 2021. South African markets surprised with the JSE All Share Index gaining 42%, driven primarily by mining sector gains of 126%. However, elevated valuations and AI bubble concerns create risks, with the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings versus a 30-year average of 17.1 times. The manager emphasizes maintaining broad diversification and patience as key strategies for navigating 2026's opportunities and challenges.
Global equity markets delivered strong double-digit returns in 2025 despite significant headwinds from trade wars and geopolitical tensions, with the 'anywhere but America' trade proving successful as international markets outperformed US indices, while AI investment reached unprecedented levels raising questions about sustainability and bubble risks.
The manager expresses cautious optimism for 2026, emphasizing the importance of broad diversification and patience. While acknowledging elevated market valuations and AI bubble risks, the outlook suggests continued opportunities across global markets with particular emphasis on not overlooking local South African markets which surprised with spectacular returns in 2025.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, AU, BRK-A, CSCO, GFI, GOOGL, HMY, IMPUY, MRP.JO, PIK.JO, SBSW, SHP.JO, SPP.JO, TFG.JO, TRU.JO, WHL.JO | AI, Defense Spending, diversification, Global Markets, gold, rates, Trade Policy | - | AI remained the dominant theme driving US equity markets with the S&P 500 up 17.8% and Nasdaq gaining 21%. The AI trade broadened beyond chips… |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BABA, ORCL, PRX NA | AI, Complacency, risk, Sentiment, Valuations | - | INN8 warns that global equity markets reflect rising complacency as valuations stretch despite unresolved economic and geopolitical risks. The letter highlights euphoric sentiment around technology… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Defense SpendingThe entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. This exposure focuses on companies that make armaments for nation state security and materially outperformed for the year. |
Defense Armaments Rheinmetall Palantir RTX | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Complacency |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| AU | Our gold exposure, including AngloGold Ashanti, also added meaningfully to returns as stronger precious metal prices translated into higher cash generation for miners. |
| BRK-A | Miles mentioned that he had been a long-term shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway and had never sold his shares. Over roughly twenty-five years, his investment compounded at about 10.9% annually. The first dollar he invested became approximately thirteen dollars. Since around 1990, Berkshire has only marginally outperformed the S&P 500. By Buffett's own historical standards, this period could be described as mediocre. And yet, admiration for Buffett has not faded—if anything, it has intensified. |
| CSCO | It took Cisco, the leading provider of internet equipment and briefly the world's most valuable company, a quarter of a century and another technology bubble to regain its peak. |
| GFI | There were massive returns from gold companies — Gold Fields (up 200%) |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HMY | Harmony (up 124%) |
| IMPUY | Impala Platinum (24%) in Q4 and (+243%) for the year, with platinum exposures performing well |
| MRP.JO | and Mr Price (-41%). Mr Price's announcement in December to buy Germany-based retailer NKD wiped R9 billion off its market value after the share price plunged on the news |
| PIK.JO | While Pick 'n Pay (-19%), Shoprite (-9%) and Woolworths (-9%) all lost ground |
| SBSW | Sibanye Stillwater (+28%) in Q4 and (+360%) for the year, with platinum exposures performing well |
| SHP.JO | While Pick 'n Pay (-19%), Shoprite (-9%) and Woolworths (-9%) all lost ground |
| SPP.JO | Spar (-35%) |
| TFG.JO | Foschini lost 50% |
| TRU.JO | together with Truworths (-45%) |
| WHL.JO | While Pick 'n Pay (-19%), Shoprite (-9%) and Woolworths (-9%) all lost ground |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
