| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 40.1% | 14.0% | 82.9% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 82.9% | 20.2% | 18.5% |
Jackson Peak Capital delivered +14.0% net returns in Q4 2025, driven by event-driven positions, fundamental longs, and net exposure management. The fund's largest contributor was Confluent, where their August acquisition thesis was validated by IBM's December acquisition announcement. They initiated a significant position in EchoStar as an event-driven play on SpaceX's potential 2026 IPO, given EchoStar's 2.8% SpaceX ownership stake. Net exposure was reduced from 55% to 25% during the quarter as markets reached upper percentile valuations and tech positioning became stretched. The manager used QQQ puts to hedge exposure and profit from the tech sector's late-October reversal. Looking ahead to 2026, they see a rich opportunity set driven by uncertainty around Fed policy, tariff decisions, AI infrastructure ROI demonstration, and OBBB legislation impact. The fund returned +82.9% net for full-year 2025, bringing cumulative returns since inception to +160.5% with 0.14 correlation to markets.
Jackson Peak Capital operates a concentrated long/short equity strategy focused on delivering attractive absolute returns with low market correlation through event-driven positions, fundamental longs, and active net exposure management.
The manager sees a rich opportunity set heading into 2026 for long/short strategy, driven by uncertainty and dispersion around key variables including Fed policy, tariff decisions, AI ROI demonstration, and OBBB legislation impact. Net exposure decisions will be guided by these factors, operating within their established exposure range framework.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CFLT, CORZ, GTLB, PZZA, QQQ, SATS | Event-Driven, Exposure Management, Long/Short, M&A, technology, valuation | SATS | AI infrastructure spending commitments faced scrutiny in late Q4 as investors questioned feasibility and ROI demonstration capabilities. The tech sector peaked on AI infrastructure announcements… |
| Nov 27 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CFLT | AI, Catalyst, Data centers, event, M&A | CFLT | Market speculation and momentum created sharp dislocations Jackson Peak used for event-driven trades in AI infrastructure, data-center power providers, and software. They expect asymmetry in… |
| Jul 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BABA, ENR, META, PLTR | AI, Event-Driven, Long/Short, tariffs, volatility | - | The commentary frames heightened volatility as fertile ground for long/short strategies driven by fundamental and event-driven opportunities. Management highlights tariff-driven dislocations, rapid drawdowns, and sharp… |
| May 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AVGO, COIN, META, PLTR, RHM GR, TSLA | - | - | - |
| Feb 8 2024 | 2024 Q4 | COIN, NVDA. MU, PDD, TSLA | - | - | - |
| Aug 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | BUR, NVDA | - | - | - |
| Aug 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | ATVI, EDR, LESL, SAVE, VRT | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
BiopharmaSector out of favor due to political factors leading to lower industry R&D spend. Manager believes society will continue to need new drugs and health innovations, expecting capital to return and R&D spend to reaccelerate. Initiated diversified basket allocation via ETFs and service-based businesses. |
Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals Drug Development Healthcare Innovation R&D | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Patrick O’Brien | CFLT | Confluent, Inc. | Information Technology | Information Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, AI, Data, infrastructure, Software, Streaming, valuation | Login |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Patrick O’Brien | SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Event-driven, IPO, NAV, Satellite, spinoff | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CFLT | CFLT, one of infrastructure software investments, reported a slightly disappointing quarter. The disappointment, in our opinion, was largely cosmetic. The market, however, severely punished the stock, treating the mild disappointment on one key performance indicator as if it was existential. We disagreed and used the opportunity to make CFLT one of our biggest positions, believing this to be a very strategic asset. Late in the fourth quarter we were validated when IBM announced a bid to acquire the company for a 35% premium. |
| CORZ | We also welcomed the return of Core Scientific to the long book. The position had previously migrated into the arbitrage book during merger-related activity with CoreWeave and now once again reflects a fundamental long opportunity following the collapse of that transaction. A notable contributor was the Core Scientific / CoreWeave merger arbitrage and subsequent trading around the unlock, which added approximately +550 basis points to portfolio performance. |
| GTLB | We initiated a new investment position in GitLab (GTLB), a Dev/Sec/Ops software platform vendor that helps software developers plan, build, and monitor code for new and existing applications. The stock has been under severe pressure for some time, largely due to the belief that AI-powered 'Vibe Coding' software companies will displace GTLB solutions. We fundamentally reject this thesis and believe that as software development becomes easier and more productive, more code will be generated, increasing the need for planning, development, and monitoring tools like GitLab's. We estimate GTLB's intrinsic value is $75 per share. |
| PZZA | Other detractors included Edgewell Personal Care, security systems company Arlo Technologies, communications equipment business Netgear and pizza restaurant chain Papa John's International |
| QQQ | Most investors should be able to capture the big winners by owning QQQ over the long term. Picking winners and losers during such a time of disruption is very difficult. |
| SATS | December saw the GA-Courtenay Special Situations fund (USD I) appreciate by +6.3%, resulting in a return for 2025 of +6.5%. The positive result was primarily driven by price appreciation in Echostar and Filtronic, the fund's largest two positions, and both publically listed proxies for SpaceX. |
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