Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -15.1% | -15.1% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -15.1% | -15.1% |
JDP Capital's Survivor & Thriver Fund declined 15.1% in Q1 2026 versus S&P 500's 4.3% drop, as AI disruption fears and Iran war outbreak drove extreme market sentiment. The manager maintains conviction in businesses meeting four criteria: adaptable business models, durable pricing power, capital allocation supporting competitive moats, and management-shareholder alignment. The fund exited Caesars Entertainment after disappointing buyout talks and initiated a position in Mercado Libre, the dominant Latin American e-commerce and fintech platform, at attractive valuations during the emerging markets selloff. Despite market volatility, the manager emphasizes that prospects for durable, growing businesses remain unchanged. Companies reinvesting aggressively for growth, like Amazon's $200 billion AI infrastructure spend, are being punished despite positioning for long-term value creation. Historical market indicators suggest current conditions mirror previous bull market beginnings, with high volatility, excessive cash holdings, and investor cautiousness typically preceding strong recoveries. The manager remains fully invested alongside client capital, focused on secular winners that can compound when most cannot.
Invest in businesses with adaptable models, durable pricing power, strong capital allocation, and management alignment that can compound value through market cycles, focusing on companies reinvesting aggressively for growth rather than optimizing short-term metrics.
Manager expects companies with insulated growth runways to emerge more valuable if economy continues to slow, positioning the fund well for strong recovery once market returns to fundamentals.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AMZN, CZR, MELI | AI, E-Commerce, Fintech, growth, Latin America, value |
CZR MELI |
Fund down 15.1% as AI fears and Iran war drove market panic. Exited Caesars on disappointing buyout, added Mercado Libre at attractive valuation. Manager sees extraordinary buying opportunity similar to early 2025 tariff selloff. Companies reinvesting for growth being punished despite strong fundamentals. Historical indicators suggest bull market emergence ahead. |
| Oct 23 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, BABA, CZR, LYV, META, NFLX, NOW, NVDA, SPOT, T, TSLA, V | AI, China, Electric Vehicles, growth, Long/Short, Sentiment, technology, value |
SPOT 300750 CH BABA TCEHY CZR |
Fund outperformed with 31.8% YTD returns driven by Chinese tech recovery and Tesla gains. Manager sees AI adoption acceleration and Chinese government support creating compelling opportunities despite market pessimism. Portfolio positioned for technological disruption enabling smaller companies to scale faster with less capital, expanding the investable opportunity set beyond traditional economic cycles. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 300750.SZ, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, CZR, META, SPOT, TSLA | AI, Battery, China, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, Streaming, technology |
SPOT BABA 300750 CH SPOT BABA 300750.SZ |
Fund returned 19.2% in 2Q, outperforming S&P 500 by focusing on data-driven companies benefiting from technological disruption. Spotify's Apple court victory unlocks monetization potential while China basket rebounded 20% on AI sentiment shift. New CATL position captures energy transition megatrend. Portfolio emphasizes businesses with data flywheels positioned for structural change. |
| Apr 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CZR, ENDI, RDFN, RKT, SPOT | China, gaming, Streaming, tariffs, Trade Policy, value, volatility |
ENDI CZR SPOT RDFN |
Fund outperformed S&P 500 despite tariff volatility by holding companies with strong secular tailwinds. Spotify leads with streaming growth, Caesars benefits from gaming legalization, and Chinese tech trades cheaply. Manager views current uncertainty as temporary disruption to solid underlying earnings power, positioning for recovery when tariff fears subside. |
| Jan 28 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, CZR, META, NFLX, ROKU, SPOT, TSLA | China, Electric Vehicles, gaming, growth, Streaming, technology, value | - | Jeremy Deal's fund returned 47.9% in 2024 by investing in value migration beneficiaries like Spotify and Tesla. The strategy focuses on companies where technological progress disrupts mature competitors, creating opportunities in businesses that appear overvalued historically but remain undervalued prospectively. Deal emphasizes patience in fundamental investing and remains bullish on portfolio trajectory heading into 2025. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 0700.HK, 2318.HK, AMZN, BABA, CYBR, CZR, FLUT.L, PARA, SPOT, TSLA | Buybacks, China, gaming, rates, small caps, Stimulus, technology |
0700.HK BABA 2318.HK CZR |
Fund delivered 12.4% in 3Q as returns broadened beyond early winners. China stimulus drove rally in Tencent, Alibaba, and Ping An basket now at 15% of assets. Fed rate cuts expected to unlock growth for small-cap holdings with strong balance sheets after years of conservative capital allocation. Corporate growth positioned to surprise upside. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI disruption fears drove market selloff across software, IT, insurance, and adjacent sectors. Despite market concerns, manager views AI infrastructure spending as creating long-term value, citing Amazon's $200 billion investment in AWS, automation and robotics as positioning for AI benefits. |
Infrastructure Software Disruption Investment AWS |
E-commerceMercado Libre represents dominant Latin American e-commerce platform with 30%+ revenue growth for 28 consecutive quarters. Ecommerce penetration in Latin America is half that of US/UK/China, providing significant runway for growth as young population moves spending online. |
Latin America Penetration Growth Digital Platform | |
FinTechMercado Pago has become one of largest digital financial institutions in Latin America, with 40%+ growth in fintech segment. Offers comprehensive financial services including QR payments, credit cards, loans, insurance, and wealth management, leveraging consumer data for better underwriting. |
Digital Banking Credit Payments Financial Services Underwriting | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe exponential part of the growth curve in AI adoption is still in front of us. Token costs have fallen 90% while usage increased 3,800% in 2025. The falling costs of compute and inference are unlocking possibilities for smaller companies to compete in areas once reserved for largest incumbents. |
Artificial Intelligence Compute Inference Token Costs Adoption |
ChinaChinese tech companies are benefiting from a double tailwind: management focus on core businesses improving returns on capital, and government pursuit to control future economy pillars. CATL, Alibaba, and Tencent have rallied significantly after years of being untouchable by western investors. |
Chinese Tech Restructuring Government Support Supply Chain Cold War | |
TechnologyThe speed and magnitude of technological change is creating a rich environment for patient capital. Communication Services and Information Technology sectors have shown remarkable growth, earning 100%+ returns on incremental invested capital with enormous free cash flow generation. |
Tech Growth Innovation Digital Transformation Software Hardware | |
Electric VehiclesCompanies at the center of megatrends like EVs and battery technology should be able to grow faster than Chinese GDP for a long time. China has prioritized developing its entire supply chain from commodities to hardware and software in this sector. |
EVs Battery Technology Supply Chain Manufacturing Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI inference allows Caesar's gaming apps to analyze player behavior instantly, adjusting interfaces and difficulty levels. AI models can infer player risk appetite and mood based on session-level signals for personalized experiences. AI will someday disrupt or eliminate entire corporate divisions supported by mission critical software. |
Gaming Personalization Disruption Enterprise Software |
Energy TransitionCATL is at the epicenter of the energy transition megatrend including electrification of transportation and grid storage. Battery technology is the linchpin for EV adoption with costs falling 90% since 2010. Virtual Power Plants using batteries and software will replace centralized fossil fuel power stations. |
EV Batteries Grid Storage Battery Manufacturers Energy Storage | |
ChinaChina basket returned +20% in first half driven by improved sentiment toward Chinese equities. Chinese LLM DeepSeek became most downloaded US app, signaling domestic models catching up faster than expected. Large Chinese tech companies hold substantial stakes in other leading tech companies they funded. |
Chinese Tech Sentiment Valuations AI | |
StreamingSpotify won years-long fight with Apple allowing direct billing without App Store fees. Spotify can now evolve into a marketplace platform for artists and creators to monetize audiences. The spoken word is the most undervalued form of communication on the web by a country mile. |
Music Monetization Creator Economy Data | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe manager extensively discusses the 2025 Tariff Tank and its impact on markets, analyzing both bear and bull cases for MAGA trade policies. He views tariff uncertainty as creating extreme volatility but believes the ultimate outcome will be somewhere between extremes and not as disruptive as either side predicts. |
Tariffs MAGA Trade War Onshoring Protectionism |
GamingCZR is positioned to benefit from state-by-state legalization of online gaming in the US. The online gaming business grew 20% to $1.2 billion with EBITDA up 207% to $117 million, and iGaming revenue grew 65% in Q4 2024 on top of 54% growth in 2023. |
iGaming Sports Betting Legalization Digital Gaming Casino | |
StreamingSpotify remains the largest position, benefiting from the mega trend shift from linear media to podcasting. The company ended 2024 with 675 million subscribers and saw free cash flow up 123% in Q4 due to strong operating leverage. |
Podcasting Subscriptions Audio Digital Media Content | |
ChinaThe China basket strongly outperformed the S&P 500 in Q1, consisting of large China-centric tech infrastructure stocks that don't depend on US exports. These positions had blow-out earnings with increased share buybacks and remain undervalued with equity yields over 10%. |
Tech Infrastructure Buybacks Undervalued Non-Export Growth | |
| 2024 Q4 |
StreamingSpotify benefits from ever-lower barriers to produce consumer content, the rapid shift away from all forms of linear media consumption, and behavioral data generated by hundreds of billions of consumption hours. The company achieved unexpected earnings power in 2024 with 3Q gross profit up 62% YoY and operating income surging to about $2 billion annualized. Roku represents the largest connected TV operating system in North America with nearly 50% market share, positioned to benefit from Value Migration of digital advertising budgets converging with CTV. |
Connected TV Platform Advertising Content |
Electric VehiclesTesla achieved a breakthrough in Full Self Driving (FSD v12) and the trajectory of FSD improvement has been astounding. Tesla's leadership position in the infrastructure layer underpinning mega-trends in robotics, smart vehicles and battery storage will unlock earnings growth. After the presidential election, TSLA valuation re-rated up on the likely probability that regulation of full self-driving will consolidate to a single federal agency. |
Autonomous Driving Robotics Battery Storage Infrastructure | |
ValueThe fund pursues a strategy of investing where the puck is going, capturing value migration from outdated business models to new competitors with more compatible products. The biggest beneficiaries of value migration tend to look optically overvalued on a rear-view looking basis yet be chronically undervalued on a forward-looking basis. The fund owns a well-researched portfolio of stocks purchased when the market seems to be underestimating step changes in earnings power. |
Value Migration Undervalued Earnings Power Mispriced | |
CasinosCaesars Entertainment was down 30% in 2024 as post-COVID growth rate started to slow and fears about consumer spending hangover combined with rising floating-rate interest rates led to the stock being put in the penalty box. Looking ahead at 2025, Caesars expects to generate materially more free cash flow as massive multi-year capex projects wrapped up in 2024, and more states legalize online gaming. |
Gaming Free Cash Flow Online Gaming Consumer Spending | |
ChinaThe China basket did okay in 2024 with performance that kept up with the S&P 500. Each stock in the basket is growing faster than the Chinese economy, trades for a single-digit multiple of earnings, earns high returns on capital, and has excessive amounts of cash and investments being used for increased stock buybacks. |
Returns on Capital Buybacks Single Digit Multiples Growth | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ChinaChinese equities rallied on major government stimulus package. Portfolio holds Tencent, Alibaba, and Ping An Insurance at single-digit multiples with enormous cash positions and buyback programs. Position now over 15% of assets after recent rally. |
Stimulus Valuations Buybacks Recovery |
GamingCaesars Entertainment positioned to benefit from rapidly growing US online gaming market. Flutter Entertainment revised US market estimate from $40B to $70B. Caesars targeting $400-500M EBITDA from online by year-end with largest US casino footprint. |
Online Sports Betting Market Growth Digital | |
RatesFed rate cuts expected to unlock idle balance sheets and benefit smaller companies. Lower rates reduce Caesars debt expense and stimulate consumer demand for travel and gaming. Three years of higher rates pushed management toward conservative capital allocation. |
Fed Easing Small Caps Consumer | |
BuybacksCaesars surprised with $150M stock purchase at $36.38 and new $500M buyback authorization. Chinese holdings have large buyback programs. US companies positioned for catch-up growth after years of conservative capital allocation and debt paydown. |
Repurchases Capital Allocation Value |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | CZR | Caesars Entertainment | Resorts & Casinos | Casinos & Gaming | Bear | NASDAQ | buyout, Casinos, entertainment, Gaming, Las Vegas, management, minority shareholders, Privatization | Login |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | MELI | Mercado Libre | Internet Retail | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Credit, digital payments, e-commerce, Emerging markets, Fintech, founder-led, growth, Latin America, platform | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | SPOT | Spotify Technology S.A. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | monetization, platform, scale, Streaming, Subscriptions | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | 300750 CH | Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | Shenzhen Stock Exchange | Batteries, China, Electrification, EV, scale | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, buybacks, cloud, ecommerce, restructuring | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | TCEHY | Tencent Holdings Ltd. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Dubai Financial Market | cashflow, China, Gaming, Platforms, Socialmedia | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | CZR | Caesars Entertainment Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | Digital, Gaming, Optionality, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | SPOT | Spotify Technology S.A. | Communication Services | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Audio, Direct Billing, monetization, Pricing power, Streaming | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Distributors | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Ant Group, China, investments, Sum-of-the-Parts, Value | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jeremy Deal | 300750 CH | Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited | Industrials | Communications Equipment | Bull | Shenzhen Stock Exchange | Batteries, Dominant, energy storage, EV, VPP | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | 0700.HK | Tencent Holdings Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | buybacks, cash-rich, China, Gaming, social media, Stimulus, technology, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cash-rich, China, Cloud computing, consumer, e-commerce, Stimulus, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | 2318.HK | Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. | Financials | Insurance | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | buybacks, cash-rich, China, financial services, Fintech, Insurance, Stimulus, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | CZR | Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | buybacks, Casinos, Digital transformation, Gaming, Interest Rate Sensitive, online sports betting, Travel, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | SPOT | Spotify Technology S.A. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | App Store, Audio Streaming, Audiobooks, Data Monetization, Direct Billing, EU, Marketplace Platform, Podcasts, Subscription, US | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Ant Group, China, Chinese tech, e-commerce, Fintech, Investment Holdings, Sum-of-parts, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | 300750.SZ | Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Shenzhen Stock Exchange | battery technology, China, Electrification, energy storage, energy transition, Ev batteries, geopolitical risk, Lithium-ion, Oem Partnerships, Virtual Power Plants | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | ENDI | Endi Corp | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | asset management, AUM growth, Bond Funds, Credit Products, financial services, Institutional Clients, subsidiary valuation, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | CZR | Caesars Entertainment | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | activist, breakup value, Casinos, entertainment, Free Cash Flow, high-margin, iGaming, Online-Gaming, ROIC, State Legalization | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | SPOT | Spotify Technology S.A. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | advertising, Audio Streaming, Free Cash Flow, Linear Media Shift, Media Services, operating leverage, Podcasting, SaaS, Subscription | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | JDP Capital | RDFN | Redfin Corporation | Real Estate | Real Estate Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Customer Acquisition, Cyclical, housing market, M&A, mortgage origination, Real Estate Brokerage, technology platform, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CZR | In late March we exited Caesars Entertainment (CZR) after reports that the company is in talks to sell itself to Tilman Fertitta or Carl Icahn for a fire-sale price. Over our fund's history we have had several positions taken from us via buyouts at valuations far below a reasonable valuation. In the case of Caesars, I was especially disappointed after reading that CEO Tom Reeg is reported to be part of the buyout. Reeg is someone I had grown to admire and respect. I had believed he could stick out the stock's drawdown without taking advantage of minority investors. |
| MELI | Mercado Libre (MELI) is a classic Survivor & Thriver business but that we rarely see on sale. MELI is the dominant e-commerce, fintech platform and logistics provider in Latin America, ahead of Amazon, Shopee and smaller regional competitors. MELI is run by founder-operators who are aggressively reinvesting in the business for the next decade. Similar to Amazon in the early 2000s, using a P/E ratio to assess MELI's earnings power is a bad idea. That said, at an equity valuation of $85 billion or $1,600 per share, we acquired our stake for less than 1x GMV and ~18x estimated 2026 earnings. |
| AMZN | Amazon is one of the best examples. The stock now trades for the lowest valuation in its history as punishment for announcing an additional $200 billion in spend supporting AWS, automation and robotics. Amazon is selling closer to a distressed valuation than a juggernaut positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI over the next decade. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||