| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 1.12% | 4.83% |
Jemekk Hedge Fund returned 1.1% in Q2 2026, lagging the S&P 500's 15.2% surge and the TSX's 7.0% gain, as index hedging and lack of bank exposure weighed on performance. The fund maintains 72% net long exposure with an 18% overweight to precious metals, despite gold declining 14% on rising rates. The managers remain committed to gold based on continued central bank reserve shifts away from USD, institutional fund flows, and expectations that labor market softening will enable Fed rate cuts in 2027. Three of four core themes performed well: Defence contributor MDA Space, Build Canada holding Telesat, and new Healthcare position Extendicare, which is capitalizing on 4% annual growth in Canada's 85+ population. The primary drag was hedging costs and gold equity weakness. Key risks include elevated geopolitics, untested AI-capex driven earnings, and rising rates, though the managers expect a return to the Q1 environment favoring resources in H2 2026. The fund has repositioned gold holdings toward mid-tier miners and reduced some hedges while maintaining tactical flexibility.
Jemekk Hedge Fund maintains a constructive but cautious stance with 72% net long exposure, overweight precious metals at 17-18%, and concentrated positioning in four core themes: Defence, Build Canada, Health Care, and Resources, anticipating that early labor market softening will enable Fed rate cuts in 2027 and drive a return to the Q1 2026 environment that favored Canadian resources and gold.
The managers remain positively disposed toward higher equity weights entering Q3 2026, expecting earnings to continue rising, inflation to trend lower, and flows into Canada to boost Canadian equity attractiveness in the second half. They anticipate a return to the Q1 environment that favored resources and precious metals as labor market softening gives the Fed room to ease. However, they remain intensely focused on elevated geopolitical risks and untested AI-capex driven earnings expectations, and will not hesitate to increase or reestablish hedged positions that serve as valuable insurance.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AEM.TO, AGI.TO, EQX.TO, EXE.TO, MDA.TO, TLG.TO, TSAT.TO | AI, Canada, defense, gold, healthcare, Hedging, rates, Resources | EXE.TO | Jemekk returned 1.1% in Q2 as hedging costs and gold weakness offset gains from Defence, Healthcare, and Telecom holdings. The fund maintains 72% net long with 18% in precious metals, positioned for Fed rate cuts in 2027 to revive the resource trade. New position Extendicare capitalizes on senior care demographics. Managers watch AI-capex sustainability closely while expecting H2 to mirror Q1's resource-friendly environment. |
| Apr 12 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CAE.TO, TSAT.TO | Canada, commodities, defense, energy, Geopolitical, healthcare, Resources, Space | - | Jemekk delivered 3.7% in Q1 2026, outperforming during Iran conflict volatility. The fund targets four Canadian themes: Defense spending reaching 5% GDP, Build Canada infrastructure, Resources especially precious metals, and Healthcare. New positions Telesat and CAE capitalize on satellite growth and pilot training demand. Managers remain bullish on Canadian valuations versus stretched US markets. |
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CNQ.TO, EIF.TO, FFH.TO, GS, MEG.TO, RTX | aerospace, Canada, commodities, defense, energy, infrastructure, Precious Metals, Resources | RTX | Jemekk Hedge Fund posted 18.3% returns in 2025, capitalizing on Canadian outperformance driven by energy, precious metals, and financials. The fund is positioned for Build Canada infrastructure themes and elevated defense spending globally through holdings like Exchange Income Fund and RTX Corporation. Managers expect continued Canadian outperformance in 2026 despite macro headwinds from inflation and tariffs. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AC.TO, AEM, AMZN, ATD.TO, BTG, CRM, EFN.TO, FFH.TO, FNV, GDXJ, GS, MEG.TO, SSL.TO, V, WMT, ZZZ.TO | Canada, financials, gold, Hedging, materials, rates, Resilience | - | Jemekk posted strong Q3 returns of 5.51% despite hedging costs, driven by three market pillars: declining rates as Fed shifts to labor focus, surprising earnings growth, and positive fund flows. Portfolio emphasizes Financials, precious metals benefiting from all-time highs, and resilient consumer plays. Managers remain constructive but maintain defensive positioning for inevitable volatility. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
GoldThe fund maintains a 17-18% weighting in precious metals despite a 14% decline in gold prices during Q2 driven by rising rates. The managers remain committed to the thesis based on continued US dollar debasement, central bank reserve shifts away from USD, institutional and retail fund flows into the space, and expectations that labor market softening will give the Fed room to ease rates in 2027. The fund has repositioned toward mid-tier gold miners and away from streamers and seniors. |
Gold Miners Central Banks Dollar Rates |
DefenseDefense is identified as one of the fund's four core 2026 themes. MDA Space was a strong positive contributor to performance in Q2, indicating active positioning in the defense and space sector. |
Defense Space MDA | |
Senior CareThe fund initiated a position in Extendicare, a Canadian senior care operator, citing structural demographic tailwinds with Canada's 85+ population growing 4% annually through 2051. Home health segment revenue grew $47mm to $205mm with margin expansion, and the company has diversified revenue across long-term care, home health, and managed services. Management expects revenue to grow 13% annually versus 10% for the sector, with the company evolving from a dividend payer to a compounding growth story. |
Senior Care Home Health Demographics Healthcare | |
RatesRising rates were the primary driver of TSX underperformance and weighed heavily on the fund's precious metals positions. The 10-year yield peaked at 4.67% before easing to 4.40%. The managers expect early signs of labor market softening combined with a more dovish Fed under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to signal rate cuts in 2027, which would benefit the fund's resource-heavy positioning. |
Interest Rates Fed Monetary Policy | |
AIThe managers note that investors began questioning the economics of the massive AI capital spend during Q2, particularly in June. They express concern that the vast majority of increased earnings expectations have been AI-capex driven, describing this as a relatively new phenomenon that has yet to be tested. This represents a key risk they are monitoring closely. |
AI Capital Spending Earnings Valuations | |
SatellitesTelesat was identified as a strong positive contributor to Q2 performance and was written up in detail in the prior quarter's letter, indicating it remains a core holding within the fund's Build Canada theme. |
Satellites Telecom Infrastructure Canada | |
| 2026 Q1 |
DefenseCanada strives to meet newly established spending goals of $200 billion or 5% of GDP by 2035. The fund holds long-term positions in MDA, RTX, and new position CAE. Defense training and simulation complex is re-rating as allies invest in military readiness. |
Defense Spending NATO Military Simulation Training |
ResourcesPrecious metals remain a significant weight in the portfolio, with new names Discovery Silver and Troilus Gold marking a shift to move down cap and away from royalty companies. All commodity prices moved higher in Q1 driven by the Iran conflict. |
Gold Silver Precious Metals Commodities Mining | |
CanadaBuild Canada theme continues as Canadians turn inwards to boost economy due to increasing US tariffs and CUSMA negotiations. Fund holds Exchange Income Fund and Telesat as plays on this theme with government support including $3 billion loan participation. |
Infrastructure Spending Government Domestic Investment | |
SpaceTelesat is shifting from legacy GEO satellite constellations to cutting-edge LEO constellation focused on Enterprise, Aviation, Maritime and Defense applications globally. The company benefits from $3 billion government loan and equity participation. |
Satellites LEO Constellation Commercial | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI was a dominant market driver of U.S. stocks and continues to influence market leadership. The AI-driven rally led to historic levels of market concentration with just five stocks accounting for nearly 45% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025. Strong AI-related investment was the backbone of U.S. growth in 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Market Concentration Growth Innovation |
InflationThe inflation storm that dominated recent years appeared to be easing, at least in the short term. November and December inflation surprised to the downside, easing investor concerns about persistent inflation pressures. However, a risk continues to be a repeat of the 1960s and early 1970s pattern. |
Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Economic Data | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions and supporting markets. The Fed resumed rate cuts in September and markets expect further easing into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Historically, equities have responded favorably following the restart of easing cycles. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Financial Conditions | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell more than 9% during 2025, which supported international markets outpacing the U.S. by the widest margin since 2009. The dollar was pressured by high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. |
US Dollar Currency International Markets Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldThe Gold and Silver theme has begun to play out after years of unsuccessful positioning. A weaker USD, inflationary fears, flow of funds, and rising demand from both Central Banks and retail have pushed prices to all-time highs, significantly rewarding participants. |
Gold Silver Precious Metals Central Bank Inflation |
ResilienceThe consumer has proven much more resilient than expected, leading to increased exposure to Consumer Cyclicals. Companies like Walmart, Air Canada, Alimentation Couche-Tard and Amazon represent core positions benefiting from this resilient consumer theme. |
Consumer Resilient Cyclicals Retail | |
RatesInterest rates remain stubbornly high but are poised to move lower as labor concerns grow and a new Fed chair takes the reins in 2026. The Fed's focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market, supporting the case for lower rates. |
Interest Rates Fed Labor Market Monetary Policy |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jemekk Hedge Fund | EXE.TO | Extendicare Inc. | Other | Health Care Facilities | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, consolidation, defensive, Demographic Tailwind, dividend, Government-Backed, growth, Health Care Facilities, Home Health Care, insider buying, Long-term Care, M&A, Senior Care | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Gerard Ferguson | RTX | RTX Corporation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket, backlog, Defense, Rearmament, visibility | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MDA.TO | On the positive side, three of the Fund's four 2026 themes — Defence, Build Canada, Health Care and Resources — played out as expected in the quarter, with the strongest contributions coming from MDA Space, Telesat (written up last quarter), Extendicare (a newer name discussed below), and Troilus (one of the few Resource contributors). |
| TSAT.TO | On the positive side, three of the Fund's four 2026 themes — Defence, Build Canada, Health Care and Resources — played out as expected in the quarter, with the strongest contributions coming from MDA Space, Telesat (written up last quarter), Extendicare (a newer name discussed below), and Troilus (one of the few Resource contributors). |
| EXE.TO | Extendicare Inc. (EXE) is a Canadian senior care company headquartered in Markham, Ontario, operating long-term care homes, home health care (ParaMed), and managed/group purchasing services (SGP) across Canada — a network of 99 LTC homes, ~13.5 million home care hours delivered annually, and purchasing services covering ~152,000 beds. Canada's 85+ population is growing ~4% annually through 2051, giving Extendicare a multi-decade, near-guaranteed volume driver across its care segments. Home health ADV grew 32.7% y/y, with segment revenue up $47mm to $205mm and adjusted NOI margin expanding 300bps to 13.3% — growth with operating leverage, not margin dilution. Management has actively consolidated the space via the $570mm CBI Home Health acquisition plus Closing the Gap and nine Class C LTC homes. Home health now contributes 41.3% of adjusted NOI, LTC 44.1%, and managed services 14.7% — spreading reimbursement/regulatory risk across three streams while preserving the government-backed defensiveness investors value. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 52.2% y/y to $44.2M; net income rose 171% to $40.7M. The balance sheet was reset with a $450mm senior notes issuance and a 5% dividend hike. Insiders have been net buyers, usually a bullish signal. We like Extendicare for the above reasons and add that its evolution from a single-segment LTC operator into a diversified national care platform gives it multiple growth levers while retaining defensive, government-backed cash flows. The key risk to watch is labour — a current province-wide rally over staffing and wages could pressure costs. Still, with revenue forecast to grow 13% annually (vs. 10% for the sector) and in the center of a secular growth theme, we think the re-rating from sleepy dividend payer to compounding growth and income story has further to go. |
| TLG.TO | On the positive side, three of the Fund's four 2026 themes — Defence, Build Canada, Health Care and Resources — played out as expected in the quarter, with the strongest contributions coming from MDA Space, Telesat (written up last quarter), Extendicare (a newer name discussed below), and Troilus (one of the few Resource contributors). |
| AEM.TO | As a result, much of our negative contribution came from this group, as Agnico, Alamos, and Equinox were down in sympathy; although each had its own short-term issues in the quarter, the theme and the names remain core holdings in the Fund. |
| AGI.TO | As a result, much of our negative contribution came from this group, as Agnico, Alamos, and Equinox were down in sympathy; although each had its own short-term issues in the quarter, the theme and the names remain core holdings in the Fund. |
| EQX.TO | As a result, much of our negative contribution came from this group, as Agnico, Alamos, and Equinox were down in sympathy; although each had its own short-term issues in the quarter, the theme and the names remain core holdings in the Fund. |
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