| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Q2 2026 delivered positive portfolio returns despite one of the biggest energy shocks in recent decades from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The oil crisis proved containable through workarounds including increased US supply, Saudi pipeline capacity, and accelerated energy efficiency, echoing lessons from Germany's 2022 gas crisis. The dramatically improving outlook for company revenues and profits, particularly in the US where revenues are expected to grow 11.5% over the next 12 months, has been a major positive for market sentiment. AI is emerging as one of the biggest economic and societal upheavals in human history, moving faster than the electricity revolution. Anthropic revenues surged from $1 billion in December 2024 to $44 billion currently, while Nvidia is expected to show 96% revenue growth. Technology volatility is likely to spread across sectors as all companies must integrate AI or face decline. The manager expects strong profit growth, continued geopolitical crises, and higher-than-average volatility given the unprecedented range of potential outcomes for companies.
Despite major geopolitical shocks including the Strait of Hormuz closure, markets have proven resilient through workarounds and adaptation, while strong US earnings growth of 11.5% and the transformative impact of AI are driving positive returns and creating unprecedented opportunities alongside elevated volatility.
The manager expects strong company profit growth driven by robust US revenue growth of 11.5%, continued geopolitical crises including the ongoing oil shock, and higher-than-average volatility in share prices. The range of negative and positive outcomes for companies has perhaps never been greater due to the rapid integration of AI across all sectors. Despite ongoing crises, the outlook remains constructive based on fundamental earnings strength.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 2026 | 2026 Q2 | NVDA | AI, earnings, energy, geopolitics, oil, technology, volatility | - | Q2 2026 proved that crises do not necessarily mean sell signals. Despite the Strait of Hormuz closure creating a major oil shock, markets delivered positive returns driven by containable energy disruptions and robust US earnings growth of 11.5%. AI is transforming the economy faster than electricity did, with Anthropic and Nvidia showing explosive growth. Expect strong profits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and elevated volatility ahead. |
| Apr 9 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, diversification, energy, Geopolitical, global, infrastructure, value | - | JM Finn maintains diversified global positioning amid Middle East tensions that drove oil above $100. While geopolitical risks create near-term volatility, the firm sees encouraging signs of de-escalation. Focus remains on high-quality businesses across regions, with Europe and Japan offering better value than concentrated US markets. Infrastructure and defensive sectors provide stability while AI infrastructure companies show sustainable potential. |
| Jan 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Bonds, equities, global, inflation, infrastructure, policy, rates | - | Global growth decelerated in Q4 2025 but policy interventions created goldilocks conditions supporting 3.2% equity returns. Central bank divergence continues with Fed cuts versus Japan hikes. Fiscal stimulus from US, Europe, and China should drive 2026 growth re-acceleration. Global equities positioned for strong performance with broadening earnings, easing rates, and AI-driven productivity gains leading the way. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
OilThe closing of the Strait of Hormuz created one of the biggest energy shocks in recent decades, but workarounds including increased US supply, Saudi pipeline capacity, and energy efficiency acceleration have made the shortage containable. The crisis is real and could worsen, but so far has not reached depression-inducing levels as initially feared. |
Energy shock Strait of Hormuz Supply response Energy efficiency |
AIAI is causing one of the biggest economic and societal upheavals in human history, moving much faster than the electricity revolution. Anthropic revenues surged from $1 billion in December 2024 to $44 billion currently. Nvidia, the most valuable company globally, is expected to show 96% revenue growth. All companies must fully embrace AI integration or face decline. |
Artificial intelligence Anthropic Nvidia Compute Integration | |
EarningsUS company revenues are expected to grow by about 11.5% over the next 12 months, one of the highest growth rates in two decades. Higher profits exert real upward pressure on share prices, making shares materially cheaper over a 12-month horizon. Revenue growth is one of the most important drivers of long-term equity returns. |
Revenue growth Profit growth US companies Valuation | |
VolatilityTechnology shares tend to be very volatile because the range of outcomes over the next few years is extremely wide. Volatility is likely to spread to more mundane market sectors as all companies must integrate AI or face decline. The range of negative and positive outcomes for companies has perhaps never been greater. |
Technology volatility Market volatility Outcome uncertainty | |
| 2026 Q1 |
GeopoliticalRenewed tensions in the Middle East involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have created market sensitivity and driven oil prices above $100 per barrel. There are increasing signs that parties recognize escalation risks and seek resolution, with US midterm elections providing political incentive to avoid prolonged conflict. |
Middle East Iran Oil Geopolitical |
EnergyOil prices moved materially higher over the quarter, rising well above $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions. Higher energy prices acted as a headwind for global markets and added to inflationary pressures. Energy companies have been supported by firmer commodity prices. |
Oil Energy Inflation Commodities | |
AIThe artificial intelligence theme has continued to evolve with the market increasingly differentiating between speculative areas and companies providing core infrastructure. Larger, well-capitalised businesses with strong cash flows are typically best placed to benefit sustainably from this structural trend. |
AI Technology Infrastructure | |
InfrastructureInfrastructure and other real assets have continued to play an important role in providing stability and income. These investments include essential services such as utilities and energy networks, offering predictability during periods of heightened uncertainty. |
Infrastructure Utilities Real Assets | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager draws parallels between today's AI-driven market concentration and the 2014-15 oil collapse, warning that AI has become a macroeconomic assumption embedded in capital expenditure plans and valuations. Physical constraints like energy intensity and grid limitations complicate AI scalability assumptions. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Valuations Energy Infrastructure |
EnergyEnergy plays a critical role in AI infrastructure economics through data center power consumption. Rising electricity prices and grid constraints in data-center-heavy regions are compressing margins and extending deployment timelines, creating physical bottlenecks to AI scaling. |
Electricity Grid Infrastructure Data Centers Power Pricing | |
Small CapsThe manager likes the current small cap portfolio fundamentally, with strong balance sheets and resilient cash flows. However, markets continue to favor narrative momentum over breadth, creating challenges for fundamental-based small cap investing in the current environment. |
Russell 2000 Fundamentals Valuation Market Breadth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NVDA | The most valuable company in the world is the chip designer Nvidia. Its results next month are likely to show revenue growth of 96%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
