| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 16.64% | 14.63% |
Kathmandu Capital delivered a strong Q2 2025 return of 16.64% net, outperforming both the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI benchmarks despite navigating a ~30% portfolio swing driven by tariff-related volatility. The manager shifted 35% to cash mid-quarter before fully redeploying by period end, demonstrating tactical agility in turbulent markets. The portfolio emphasizes international diversification as a strategic advantage in an environment where American exceptionalism is being questioned and the U.S. faces a fragile economy with 120% debt-to-GDP ratio, declining dollar, and elevated market valuations. Key positions include ACM Research, a new holding positioned to benefit from China's semiconductor supply chain localization, and OMAB, a Mexican airport operator poised to capture nearshoring tailwinds. The manager maintains a cautious outlook, viewing the probability of economic downturn as higher than continued expansion, while patiently waiting for mispricing opportunities in volatile markets. The fund's nimble size and international focus are positioned to benefit from capital flows seeking opportunities outside the U.S. and early signs of convergence between U.S. and international equity markets.
Kathmandu Capital pursues a concentrated, international value strategy focused on mispriced small-cap opportunities across global markets, with particular emphasis on Asia and Latin America, while maintaining the flexibility to hold significant cash positions during periods of heightened volatility and elevated valuations.
The manager will continue to approach the market with caution and remain focused on delivering satisfactory long-term absolute returns. The fund anticipates continued convergence between U.S. and international equities as they patiently wait for unreasonable mispricing to emerge in what remains an extraordinarily volatile market. The manager believes the probability of an economic downturn is higher than continued expansion, though timing remains uncertain as policymakers continue to extend the current upcycle.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 2025 | 2026 Q2 | 3918 HK, ACMR, GCT, KSPI, OMAB, UI, VU.PA | China, infrastructure, international, Mexico, semiconductors, small caps, tariffs, value |
3918.HK GCT UI ACMR OMAB KSPI VU.PA |
Kathmandu Capital delivered 16.64% net in Q2 2025 by tactically navigating tariff volatility and emphasizing international diversification. The manager sees a fragile U.S. economy with 120% debt-to-GDP and elevated valuations, positioning the portfolio in mispriced small-caps across Asia and Latin America. New position ACM Research captures China semiconductor onshoring while OMAB benefits from Mexican nearshoring tailwinds. The fund remains cautious but fully invested after deploying cash raised mid-quarter. |
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACMR, GOOGL, HII, LITE, NVDA, ORCL, VICR | AI, China, defense, geopolitics, gold, Power Electronics, semiconductors, technology | - | Kathmandu Capital posted exceptional 52% gross annual returns by positioning around U.S.-China technology competition. Core holdings include Vicor for AI power infrastructure, ACM Research for Chinese semiconductor equipment, and Huntington Ingalls for defense shipbuilding. Portfolio maintains 35% gold/cash protection. Manager evolving investment approach beyond traditional value to incorporate momentum elements while expecting continued geopolitical tensions to drive opportunities. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ACMR, KSPI, LEU, UI, VU.PA | AI, China, energy, geopolitics, gold, nuclear, semiconductors, technology |
UI US ACMR US LEU US KSPI US |
Kathmandu Capital outperformed in Q3 with 16% gross returns, positioning for US-China technological rivalry through diversified approach. Portfolio holds 25% gold hedge, AI beneficiaries, and quality compounders. Created Tension Basket targeting semiconductor and nuclear companies benefiting from geopolitical realignment. Manager increasing China focus to capitalize on supply chain insights preceding Western tech capex cycles. |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 3918.HK, 688082.SS, ACMR, GCT, KSPI, OMAB, UI, VU.PA | Airports, China, international, Onshoring, semiconductors, technology, Trade Policy, value |
3918 HK KSPI GCT UI ACMR OMAB ACMR OMAB |
Kathmandu Capital's international value strategy delivered strong Q2 returns despite tariff volatility. New semiconductor equipment position in China and Mexican airport exposure target structural onshoring trends. Manager warns of U.S. economic fragility with elevated debt levels and limited policy flexibility, favoring international diversification over domestic markets trading at all-time highs. |
| May 26 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 3918.HK, GCT, KSPI, SEG, UI, VU.PA | Asia, diversification, Europe, risk management, tariffs, value |
3918.HK GCT UI KSPI VU.PA SEG |
Kathmandu Capital outperformed in Q1 2025 with international diversification paying off as Asia and Europe holdings outperformed U.S. markets. The fund reduced beta and increased geographic diversification amid tariff-driven volatility. Management believes market dynamics favor international opportunities as American exceptionalism wanes and capital seeks better value abroad. |
| Mar 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 3918.HK, GCT, KSPI, SEG, UI, VU.PA | Concentration, international, long-term, small caps, underperformance, value, volatility |
3918.HK GCT UI KSPI VU.PA SEG |
Kathmandu Capital's concentrated portfolio of undervalued small-cap international businesses significantly underperformed in Q4, but the manager sees opportunity in market dislocation. Key positions include Ubiquiti benefiting from telecom upgrades, VusionGroup capturing retail automation trends, and Gigacloud trading at attractive valuations. The fund maintains conviction in long-term value creation despite near-term volatility. |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 3918.HK, GCT, GLD, KSPI, VU.PA | Asia, Cyclical, Drawdown, E-Commerce, oil, value |
3918.HK GCT KSPI VU.EPA |
Kathmandu Capital's concentrated value approach faced its first major test with a 15% Q3 decline driven by oil exposure. The manager adapted by trimming energy positions and focusing on Asian e-commerce opportunities like Gigacloud and Kaspi trading at deep discounts. While evolving beyond pure value investing, the fund maintains conviction in undervalued quality businesses with strong competitive positions. |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 3918.HK, KSPI, VU.PA | Asia, Casinos, concentrated, emerging markets, oil, small caps, value |
3918.HK KSPI VU.PA |
Concentrated Asian value fund weathered oil volatility in Q2 with -0.40% net returns. Five-position portfolio includes recovering Cambodia casino monopoly NagaCorp, dominant Kazakhstan payments platform Kaspi.KZ, and European retail tech VusionGroup. Manager maintains conviction in small-midcap emerging market value approach despite challenging environment, expecting market pendulum to swing back toward their strategy. |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 3918.HK, KSPI, VU.PA | emerging markets, energy, gaming, oil, small caps, value |
3918.HK KSPI VU.PA |
Kathmandu Capital's concentrated emerging markets strategy delivered strong Q1 performance through oil and gas exposure and undervalued small-cap positions. The fund maintains conviction in secular energy supply shortages while identifying deep value opportunities like NagaCorp's gaming recovery story. Despite elevated market valuations, the manager continues finding compelling long-term value in bypassed emerging market small-caps. |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 3918.HK, KSPI.L, SESL.PA | Concentration, deep value, emerging markets, oil, Quality, value | 3918.HK | Kathmandu Capital's concentrated global value strategy delivered strong Q3 outperformance through opportunistic emerging market investments. The fund targets structural monopolies and dominant market leaders trading at deep discounts, including a Cambodian casino, Kazakhstan fintech super app, and oil/gas positions capitalizing on supply constraints. Patient capital deployment with 3:1 minimum risk-reward ratios drives selection. |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 3918.HK, KSPI.L, SESL.PA | Concentration, deep value, emerging markets, Fintech, gaming, global, oil, value | 3918.HK | Concentrated deep value fund with 5 global holdings plus 14% cash delivered 6.46% net returns versus -3.27% S&P 500 in Q3. Portfolio dominated by oil/gas positions on supply constraints, Cambodian gaming monopoly, Kazakhstan fintech super app, and electronic shelf label leader. Manager demands 3:1 upside/downside ratios while maintaining conservative stance amid macro uncertainty. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
TariffsThe portfolio experienced a ~30% swing driven by heightened market volatility stemming from tariff worries. The manager notes lingering tariff uncertainties and mentions that some order volumes for Gigacloud may have been pulled forward due to tariff concerns. Tariff risks are cited as a key driver of market volatility throughout the quarter. |
Trade Policy Volatility Risk |
InternationalThe manager emphasizes diversifying across geographies into businesses with pristine balance sheets and revenue visibility as a sound strategy in a world where globalism is fading and American exceptionalism is being questioned. The fund is seeing capital flows seeking opportunities outside the U.S. and early signs of convergence between U.S. equities and international counterparts, with the manager anticipating this trend to continue. |
Global Diversification Geography | |
SemiconductorsThe manager initiated a new position in ACM Research, the leading Chinese Semi-Cap Wafer Cleaning Equipment Manufacturer, positioned to benefit from China's semiconductor supply chain localization amid growing trade tensions. ACMR is described as a highly asymmetric opportunity to play the secular trend of Chinese supply-chain onshoring and fab buildout, with potential to gain share from 14% to 25% by 2030 representing $7Bn in incremental revenue. |
China Onshoring Semi Equipment | |
AirportsThe manager views airports as regional monopolies with substantial and durable barriers to entry due to high capital requirements, strict regulatory frameworks, and land constraints. OMAB benefits from a highly predictable, capital-efficient cash flow model with 41% free cash flow margins and is uniquely positioned to benefit from nearshoring tailwinds as global manufacturers seek to mitigate tariff-related risks. The upcoming MDP renewal is viewed as a potential upside catalyst. |
Infrastructure Mexico Nearshoring | |
NearshoringThe manager highlights OMAB's significant exposure to Monterrey, Mexico's industrial heartland, positioning it to benefit from nearshoring tailwinds as global manufacturers seek to mitigate tariff-related risks. This theme is presented as a structural driver for the airport operator's growth. |
Mexico Manufacturing Logistics | |
E-commerceGigacloud's 1Q25 results came ahead of market expectations, driven by continued momentum in the 3P marketplace successfully attracting more sellers to the platform. The integration of Noble House is progressing well with positive profitability. The manager remains bullish on the long-term outlook and believes the business offers a compelling margin of safety. |
Marketplaces Growth | |
Infrastructure SpendingThe manager remains confident that Ubiquiti will ultimately benefit from the BEAD program, especially following the Trump administration's announcement that the program will continue by adopting a more technology-agnostic approach rather than focusing exclusively on fiber. This shift could work in UI's favor, as its equipment is better suited for fixed-wireless access deployments. |
Broadband Government Wireless | |
U.S. DebtThe manager sees a fragile economy with little cushion to absorb future shocks, noting the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 120%, an all-time high, and is on track to rise further as the One Big Beautiful Bill adds trillions more in debt. The manager questions what would happen if the bond market begins to question America's creditworthiness and what tools would be left to stimulate the economy in a recessionary environment. |
Credit Stress United States Risk | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIMarket concerns about AI capex cycle intensified with Oracle's disappointing results leading to volatility. Manager sees AI-driven power requirements creating opportunities in power delivery solutions and continues monitoring XPU evolution. |
Power Infrastructure Capex |
SemiconductorsChina lacks ability to design and manufacture leading-edge chips at US level while US faces domestic manufacturing bottlenecks. Manager positioned in semiconductor cooling solutions and wafer-fab cleaning equipment to capture self-sufficiency trends. |
Manufacturing China Equipment | |
DefenseNational security has become central focus for both US and China with defense becoming key battleground. Manager added Huntington Ingalls to capture increased shipbuilding needs as government spending focuses on naval readiness. |
Shipbuilding Naval Spending | |
GoldFund ended quarter with approximately 35 percent in gold and cash. Manager holds precious metals as hedge positions to protect portfolio against inflation and potential economic setbacks. |
Hedge Inflation Protection | |
Data CentersVicor positioned to benefit from data center architecture's transition to HVDC with industry-leading power solutions. Manager sees multi-year tailwind from rising AI-driven power requirements and architectural transitions. |
HVDC Power Architecture | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI and Federal Reserve policy remained dominant themes over the quarter. Big Tech continues ramping investment in AI-driven capex cycle, which appears real with potential to power Industry Evolution 5.0 and usher in new era of productivity growth. The manager views this as a secular opportunity while preparing for eventual cycle slowdown. |
Artificial Intelligence Capex Big Tech Productivity |
GoldBuilt substantial gold position equivalent to 25% of portfolio as hedge against dollar weakening and potential economic setbacks. Expects US Treasuries to lose appeal as American exceptionalism narrative fades, with global liquidity seeking alternative stores of value flowing into gold, creating sustained demand over medium to long term. |
Gold Dollar Hedge Store of Value Inflation | |
ChinaSignificant opportunity emerging from US-China geopolitical tension. China making meaningful progress toward technological self-sufficiency while US defends dominant position. Both nations directing substantial policy support toward AI, semiconductor, defense, and energy sectors. Manager plans to spend more time in China to capitalize on evolving East-West dynamics. |
China Geopolitics Self-sufficiency Technology | |
SemiconductorsCentral to US-China rivalry, with battle revolving around performance, yield, and power efficiency. Both countries intensifying efforts to improve chip performance, reduce power draw, and secure critical supply chains. Manager's Tension Basket includes semiconductor companies positioned to benefit from technological realignment and economic nationalism. |
Semiconductors Power Efficiency Supply Chain Technology | |
NuclearNuclear energy identified as foundation to power AI alongside semiconductors, with parallel development direction in both US and China. Manager holds Centrus Energy, the only US domestic nuclear refiner working towards HALEU capability, viewed as critical bottleneck for US nuclear and SMR development. |
Nuclear Energy HALEU SMR | |
| 2025 Q2 |
OnshoringManager emphasizes China's semiconductor supply chain localization amid trade tensions, with ACM Research positioned to benefit from domestic market share gains. Also highlights nearshoring opportunities in Mexico through airport operator OMAB as manufacturers seek to mitigate tariff risks. |
Supply Chain Localization Trade Tensions Manufacturing Nearshoring |
SemiconductorsNew position in ACM Research targets China's semiconductor self-sufficiency drive. The WFE cleaning market represents a $2B opportunity where ACMR can gain share from foreign competitors as China moves toward independence in semiconductor manufacturing. |
Semiconductor Equipment China Market Share Self-sufficiency WFE | |
Trade PolicyPortfolio experienced significant volatility from tariff worries during the quarter. Manager notes ongoing tariff uncertainties affecting market sentiment and positioning, while highlighting how trade restrictions accelerate China's semiconductor localization efforts. |
Tariffs Trade Restrictions Volatility Policy Uncertainty Geopolitical | |
AirportsInvestment in OMAB leverages Mexico's position as a nearshoring destination. Airports operate as regional monopolies with predictable cash flows and pricing power, while OMAB specifically benefits from Monterrey's industrial exposure to manufacturing trends. |
Infrastructure Monopoly Cash Flow Nearshoring Mexico | |
| 2025 Q1 |
TariffsTariff concerns have overshadowed global economic prospects this quarter, with markets becoming increasingly policy-driven and volatile. The U.S. surprise tariff on Vietnam has cast uncertainty over the furniture industry, affecting Chinese suppliers routing shipments through Vietnam. Tariffs are likely to pressure margins for companies without U.S. manufacturing facilities. |
Trade Policy China Vietnam Supply Chain |
Geographic DiversificationThe fund has restructured the portfolio by reducing overall beta and increasing geographic diversification in anticipation of a more challenging global economic environment. Holdings in Asia and Europe have had a more favorable start to the year as capital increasingly seeks opportunities abroad. |
Asia Europe Portfolio Diversification | |
Risk ManagementThe fund focuses on staying in the game by reducing company-level leverage, lowering portfolio beta, and maintaining flexibility. They avoid binary decisions and use position sizing strategies like half Kelly rather than full Kelly, entering or exiting positions in waves to reduce timing risk. |
Beta Leverage Position Sizing Flexibility | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueThe fund focuses on high-quality, undervalued companies that have become available at reasonable valuations due to market turmoil. The manager emphasizes finding deep value gems and quality compounders trading below intrinsic value, with specific examples like Gigacloud trading at less than 5x P/E. |
Undervalued Deep Value Quality Intrinsic Value Mispriced |
Small CapsThe portfolio is concentrated in small- and mid-cap companies that have been out of favor compared to large-cap U.S. growth businesses. The manager believes this creates opportunities as the market has overlooked these smaller, internationally focused businesses. |
Small Cap Mid Cap SMID Overlooked Undervalued | |
AutomationThe fund is positioned to benefit from automation trends, particularly through VusionGroup's electronic shelf labels (ESLs) which help retailers offset rising labor costs. This trend is accelerating due to inflationary pressures and tariff policies driving store digitalization. |
ESL Digitalization Labor Costs Retail Technology Store Automation | |
NetworkingUbiquiti represents a play on the ongoing telecommunications cycle expected to remain at peak longer than previous cycles. The company benefits from wireless and wireline expansion as users upgrade devices, with particular strength in fiber-to-the-home penetration and 5G adoption. |
Telecommunications 5G FTTH Networking Equipment Wireless | |
TravelNagaCorp exposure provides leverage to Chinese tourism recovery, though it's proceeding more slowly than expected. New Chinese government stimulus is expected to bolster consumer spending and tourism recovery, supported by infrastructure like the new Phnom Penh airport opening. |
Chinese Tourism Casino Consumer Spending Recovery Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q3 |
E-commerceThe fund holds positions in cross-border e-commerce companies like Gigacloud Technology, which specializes in furniture and bulky items logistics, and Kaspi.KZ, which operates in Kazakhstan's e-commerce ecosystem. The manager sees significant opportunities in specialized e-commerce niches with strong barriers to entry. |
Cross-border Logistics Marketplace B2B |
ValueThe manager acknowledges the challenges of traditional value investing in momentum-driven markets but remains committed to finding undervalued opportunities. The portfolio includes deep value positions trading at significant discounts to peers, though the manager is evolving to consider quality growth businesses that may appear expensive by traditional value metrics. |
Discount Undervalued Traditional Quality | |
OilOil and gas holdings experienced significant declines during the quarter as WTI prices fell from $80 to $70. Despite OPEC+ production cuts and supply constraints, the market focused on demand concerns and potential oversupply. The manager trimmed positions significantly to preserve capital while maintaining long-term optimism about the sector. |
WTI OPEC Production Cyclical | |
| 2024 Q2 |
OilPortfolio affected by oil price volatility following OPEC+ announcement to phase out production cuts. WTI dropped from $86.91 to $73.25 before recovering. Manager sees potential exit point post-election due to possible Trump drill baby drill scenario disrupting supply-demand dynamics. |
OPEC WTI Supply Demand Geopolitical |
CasinosNagaCorp showing recovery with traffic at Naga 1 and 2 trending toward pre-COVID levels. Chinese tourism up 50% YoY to 30% of 2019 levels. Manager expects 100%+ share price upside by 2029 as regional monopoly pays down debt and tourism recovers. |
Tourism Recovery Cambodia Monopoly China | |
PaymentsKaspi.KZ continues generating 20%+ top and bottom-line growth driven by payment momentum. Manager views it as best flywheel business globally, positioned to benefit from AI era with extensive database and engineering talent in Central Asia. |
Kazakhstan Flywheel AI Database Growth | |
ValueManager maintains value-oriented approach focusing on undervalued businesses in inefficient markets. Significant valuation gap exists between large-cap and small-midcap equities, creating opportunities for patient value investors despite challenging environment. |
Undervalued Inefficient Gap Patient Research | |
| 2024 Q1 |
OilThe fund increased oil and gas exposure from 50% to 60% of portfolio in Q4 2023, driven by thesis that secular supply shortages will support strong oil prices. Manager expects WTI crude to stay range-bound with $80 at the low end, enabling companies to maintain strong profitability and reward investors with share repurchases and dividend hikes. |
Oil Natural Gas Energy Free Cash Flow Dividends |
GamingNagaCorp represents a deep value opportunity trading at decade-low valuations despite business recovery indicators. The company is transitioning from VIP referral model to more profitable mass and premium VIP segments, with significant long-term growth potential as tourism recovers from current 73% of 2019 levels. |
Gaming Casinos Tourism Asia Recovery | |
Small CapsManager emphasizes focus on uncovering undervalued opportunities among small to mid-cap companies bypassed by passive indexes due to size and illiquidity. These firms generate robust cash flows, offer generous share buybacks while trading at low price-to-earnings ratios, presenting compelling long-term value. |
Small Caps Value Illiquidity Buybacks Undervalued | |
| 2023 Q4 |
OilThe fund holds a significant oil and gas basket representing more than half the portfolio, betting on structural supply constraints. Following the Great Financial Crisis, permanent capacity loss and ESG considerations have created supply-demand imbalances, with major discoveries at multi-decade lows while demand remains resilient around 100 million barrels per day. |
Supply Constraints ESG Demand OPEC Strategic Reserve |
CasinosNagacorp operates a Vegas-style gaming hub in Cambodia with exclusive casino rights within 200km of Phnom Penh until 2045. The company trades at decade-low valuations due to Chinese crackdowns and slower tourism recovery, creating an opportunity in this monopolistic business with strong government relationships. |
Monopoly Cambodia Tourism Valuation Government | |
FinTechKaspi.KZ operates a dominant super app in Kazakhstan encompassing payments, marketplace, and fintech with powerful network effects. The company maintains near 100% retention rates and 90 net promoter scores, with substantial room for growth as user overlap across services stands at only 38%. |
Super App Network Effects Kazakhstan Payments Marketplace | |
| 2023 Q3 |
OilManager holds a Canadian E&P company and U.S. offshore servicing company representing over half the portfolio. Thesis centers on structural supply constraints creating powerful commodity bull markets, with permanent capacity loss from bankruptcies, ESG considerations limiting capital spending, and OPEC cuts constraining supply while demand remains resilient. |
Supply Constraints ESG OPEC Offshore E&P |
CasinosInvestment in Nagacorp, a Cambodia-based gaming monopoly with exclusive 70-year casino license within 200km of Phnom Penh until 2045. Company trades at 6.3x forward P/E despite real estate valued above market cap, with upside from new casino Naga 3 opening by 2030. |
Gaming Monopoly Cambodia Tourism Real Estate | |
FinTechKaspi.KZ operates a Kazakhstan super app encompassing payments, marketplace, and fintech with dominant market positions. Company maintains 44% net margins, 9.4% FCF yield, and powerful flywheel effects with near 100% retention rates and 90 net promoter score. |
Super App Payments Marketplace Kazakhstan Flywheel | |
AutomationSES-imagotag leads the electronic shelf labels market with 50% global market share, serving half of top 250 retailers. Company offers 20% cost savings and operational efficiencies, with only 7% global ESL penetration and 1% U.S. penetration indicating significant growth runway. |
Electronic Labels Retail Technology Market Leader Penetration Walmart |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | UI US | Ubiquiti Inc. | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | buybacks, dividends, growth, innovation, IoT, Margins, Networking, technology | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | ACMR US | ACM Research, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, China, Geopolitics, growth, manufacturing, Policy, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | LEU US | Centrus Energy Corp. | Materials | Uranium & Nuclear Fuel | Bull | NYSE | energy, growth, Nuclear, Policy, SMR, technology, U.s., uranium | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | KSPI US | Kaspi.kz JSC | Information Technology | Financial Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | Fintech, growth, Kazakhstan, Payments, profitability, Turkey, valuation | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | 3918 HK | NagaCorp Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | Bull | Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly Karachi) | Airport, Cambodia, casino, Gaming, traffic | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | KSPI | Kaspi.kz JSC | Financials | Transportation Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | diversification, expansion, Fintech, Kazakhstan, Turkey | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | GCT | Gigacloud Technology, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, Logistics, Margins, marketplace, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | broadband, infrastructure, Networking, Subsidies, Wireless | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Equipment, Localization, Onshoring, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Vincent Lo | OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | Industrials | Transportation Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Airports, cashflow, Concessions, infrastructure, Nearshoring | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | ACMR | ACM Research | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | China, dual listing, Equipment Manufacturing, market share gains, semiconductors, Supply Chain Localization, Trade Tensions, valuation discount, Wafer Cleaning | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | Industrials | Airport Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Airports, Concession, Free Cash Flow, Industrial Exposure, infrastructure, Mexico, Monopoly, Nearshoring, regulated utility | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Resorts & Casinos | Casinos & Gaming | Neutral | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Cambodia, Casinos, China exposure, COVID Recovery, Gaming, geopolitical risk, Integrated Resort, Mass-Market Gaming, Tourism | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | GCT | Gigacloud Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | B2B marketplace, e-commerce, furniture, Home goods, Logistics, M&A Integration, margin of safety, tariff impact, Third-party Platform | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | UI | Ubiquiti | Communication Equipment | Communications Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | BEAD Program, Fixed-Wireless Access, Government Infrastructure, networking equipment, Tariff risk, Technology-Agnostic, Wireless Broadband, WISP | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | ACMR | ACM Research | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | China, Dual-Listing Arbitrage, geopolitical, market share gains, Self-Sufficiency, semiconductor equipment, Supply Chain Localization, valuation discount, Wafer Cleaning, WFE | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | Airports & Air Services | Airport Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Airport Operator, Concession, Free Cash Flow, infrastructure, MDP Renewal, Mexico, Monopoly, Monterrey, Nearshoring, regulated utility, Tariff mitigation | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Software - Infrastructure | Consumer Finance | Neutral | NASDAQ | Digital Ecosystem, e-commerce, Fintech, Geographic Diversification, geopolitical risk, High Interest Rates, Kazakhstan, Payments, super app, Turkey expansion | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.PA | VusionGroup | Software - Application | Electronic Equipment & Instruments | Bull | - | Digital retail, Electronic shelf labels, ESL, Retail IoT, Revenue visibility, Store Digitization, value-added services, Walmart partnership | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Neutral | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Cambodia, casino, China, Emerging markets, Equity, Gaming, recovery | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | GCT | Gigacloud Technology | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | B2b, China, consolidation, e-commerce, Equity, furniture, tariffs, technology | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | UI | Ubiquiti | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NYSE | Communications Equipment, enterprise, Equity, Fiber, Government, infrastructure, Networking, technology | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | Digital Ecosystem, e-commerce, Emerging markets, Equity, Fintech, Kazakhstan, Payments, Turkey | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.PA | VusionGroup | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Euronext Paris | Electronic shelf labels, Equity, Labor Costs, market leadership, Pricing power, Retail Automation, technology, Walmart | Login |
| May 26, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | SEG | Seaport Entertainment Group | Real Estate | Diversified REITs | Bear | NYSE American | entertainment, Equity, exit, land development, New York, Real Estate, Special Situation, turnaround | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Neutral | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Cambodia, Casinos, Chinese Consumers, entertainment, Gaming, recovery, Stimulus, Tourism | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | GCT | Gigacloud Technology | Industrials | Air Freight & Logistics | Bull | NASDAQ | B2B Platform, e-commerce, furniture, Logistics, manufacturing, Southeast Asia, tariffs, Value | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | UI | Ubiquiti | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NYSE | 5G, Brand, Cost leadership, Fiber, infrastructure, networking equipment, SMB, telecommunications | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | digital payments, e-commerce, Emerging markets, Fintech, geopolitical, growth, Kazakhstan | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.PA | VusionGroup | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Euronext Paris | Automation, Digitalization, Electronic shelf labels, inflation, IoT, Labor Costs, retail technology, Walmart | Login |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | SEG | Seaport Entertainment Group | Real Estate | Diversified REITs | Bull | NYSE American | asset value, Bill Ackman, entertainment, NYC, operational efficiency, Real Estate, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Cambodia, casino, Discount to peers, Gaming, Infrastructure catalyst, Mass market transition, Tourism, Value | Login |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | GCT | Gigacloud Technology | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | B2B marketplace, Bulky items, Chinese discount, Cross-Border, e-commerce, furniture, Logistics, network effects, Scale Advantages, Value | Login |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, e-commerce, Fintech, Kazakhstan, marketplace, Payments, Regulatory tailwinds, Short squeeze, Turkey expansion | Login |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.EPA | VusionGroup | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Euronext Paris | Digitalization, Electronic shelf labels, ESL, growth, IoT, retail technology, US market penetration, Walmart partnership | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Cambodia, Casinos, Emerging markets, Gaming, post-COVID recovery, Regional Monopoly, Tourism Recovery, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Opportunity, digital payments, Fintech, growth, international expansion, Kazakhstan, quality compounder, Regional Monopoly, technology platform | Login |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.PA | VusionGroup | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Euronext Paris | Digital transformation, Electronic shelf labels, ESL, inflation hedge, IoT Solutions, quality compounder, retail technology, US market penetration, Walmart | Login |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | NagaCorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Asia, business model transformation, Cambodia, Casinos, debt refinancing, Gaming, Monopoly, Tourism, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.KZ | Information Technology | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | digital payments, e-commerce, Fintech, growth, Institutional Coverage, Kazakhstan, multiple expansion, super app | Login |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | VU.PA | VusionGroup | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Euronext Paris | Electronic shelf labels, IoT, margin expansion, Retail Digitalization, retail technology, US Expansion, value-added services | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | Nagacorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Hong Kong Exchange | Cambodia, casino, China, deep value, Emerging markets, Equity, Gaming, Monopoly, Real Estate, Tourism | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | - | Kaspi.KZ | Information Technology | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | London Stock Exchange | e-commerce, Emerging markets, Equity, Fintech, growth, Kazakhstan, network effects, Payments, quality compounder, super app | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | - | SES-imagotag SA | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Paris Stock Exchange | Electronic shelf labels, Equity, france, Low Penetration, market leader, retail technology, Short squeeze, Special Situation, Walmart Contract | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | 3918.HK | Nagacorp | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | Asia, Cambodia, Casinos, deep value, Emerging markets, Equity, Gaming, Monopoly, Real Estate, Tourism | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | - | Kaspi.KZ | Information Technology | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | London Stock Exchange | e-commerce, Emerging markets, Equity, Fintech, Kazakhstan, network effects, Payments, quality compounder, super app, technology | Login |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Fund Letters | Kathmandu Capital | - | SES-imagotag SA | Information Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | Euronext Paris | Electronic shelf labels, Equity, france, growth, market leader, retail technology, Short squeeze, Special Situation, underpenetrated market, Walmart Contract | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 3918.HK | Long-tenured chairman and former FBI agent Tim McNally has retired, succeeded by deputy chairman Philip Lee. Mass-market gaming continues to grow for Naga. With the COVID recovery entering a later stage and ongoing geopolitical tensions with Thailand, much attention is focused on whether the new airport can help restore traffic from China. We have continued to trim our position to reallocate capital toward more attractive opportunities. |
| GCT | 1Q25 results came ahead of market expectations, driven by continued momentum in the 3P marketplace, which is successfully attracting more sellers to the platform. The integration of Noble House is also progressing well with positive profitability. While we suspect some order volumes may have been pulled forward due to tariff concerns and will likely moderate in the coming quarters, we remain bullish on the long-term outlook and believe the business offers a compelling margin of safety. |
| UI | The share price has been volatile over the past quarter but has trended upward, despite ongoing concerns around tariffs. We remain confident that UI will ultimately benefit from the BEAD program, especially following the Trump administration's announcement that the program, though delayed, will continue by adopting a more technology-agnostic approach rather than focusing exclusively on fiber. This shift could work in UI's favor, as its equipment is better suited for fixed-wireless access deployments. |
| ACMR | This quarter, we have initiated a new position in ACM Research (NASDAQ: ACMR), the leading Chinese Semi-Cap Wafer Cleaning Equipment Manufacturer. ACMR stands to benefit from China's semiconductor supply chain localization amid growing trade and geopolitical tensions with the United States. Recent trade restrictions on the exports of both semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment to China have accelerated their efforts to achieve full self-sufficiency - China is the world's largest consumer of Semiconductors, amounting to 35% of global consumption, but only produces 7% domestically. The WFE Cleaning market in China is especially vulnerable to foreign competitors, as ~60% of the market is dominated by international companies, but have recently been rapidly losing share to ACM. The WFE market in China is ~$35Bn growing at ~7.5% while the cleaning market comprises ~6% at $2Bn, of which ACMR has 14% share, behind foreign competitors such as Tokyo Electron and LAM Research. As China moves towards self-sufficiency, ACM's momentum in taking share should accelerate, driving up earnings – share gains from 14% to 25% by 2030 represents an incremental $7Bn in Revenue. Despite being positioned as the dominant domestic cleaning supplier, ACMR trades at a discount to both domestic and foreign peers despite growing sales in 2024 as fast as domestic Chinese peers, and 3x faster than Western Peers while having a consistent track record growing 20% topline CAGR for the past decade. Beyond the core business, ACMR is structured as a Delaware incorporated HoldCo, owning 83% of Shanghai listed ACM Research Shanghai (SHA: 688082). Despite ACMR and ACMR Shanghai being virtually identical companies, ACM Shanghai trades at 250%+ Premium (~35x EBIT) to its US listed shares. While we believe that the valuation gap substantially closing is unlikely, any management action to unlock the value of their Shanghai shares to US investors acts as a free call option. Overall, ACMR acts a highly asymmetric opportunity to play the secular trend of Chinese supply-chain onshoring and fab buildout while being protected by a US incorporated company with a free call option on the valuation gap closing. |
| OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) is a leading airport operator in Mexico, founded in 1998 as part of the country's airport privatization initiative. The company operates 13 airports under a 50-year concession granted by the Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT), with the possibility of a 50-year extension. Under this agreement, OMAB must pay a concession tax (up recently from 5% to 9% of gross revenue beginning in 2024), provide continuous and non-discriminatory services, maintain infrastructure, and fulfill investment obligations under its Master Development Program (MDP). These MDPs are reviewed every five years, during which the SCT establishes minimum capital spending requirements for the next period. Our investment thesis for OMAB is threefold. First, airports are typically considered regional monopolies because they are the exclusive providers of aviation infrastructure within a given geographic area. High capital requirements, strict regulatory frameworks, land constraints, and environmental concerns make it impractical to build competing airports. This structural exclusivity creates substantial and durable barriers to entry. Airlines and passengers are also captive to use the existing facility, making the business especially sticky with pricing power. Second, OMAB benefits from a highly predictable, capital-efficient cash flow model. Operating under a concession structure, OMAB outsources most services to third parties while generating steady cash flow from regulated passenger fees. With capital expenditures predetermined every five years through MDPs, the business enjoys strong visibility into future spending and margins. This capital-light model underpins OMAB's 41% free cash flow margin. Because passenger fees are fixed and regulated, passenger throughput is the only variable and key driver of performance. With significant exposure to Monterrey, Mexico's industrial heartland, we believe OMAB is uniquely positioned to benefit from nearshoring tailwinds as global manufacturers seek to mitigate tariff-related risks. Third, we view the upcoming MDP renewal as a potential upside catalyst. OMAB's current MDP covers the period from 2021 to 2025. Given the headwinds from COVID-related recovery, tariff uncertainty, domestic airline engine issues, and recent increases in concession taxes and airport usage fees, we believe the government may offer more favorable terms in the next renewal cycle. |
| KSPI | Geopolitical headwinds, domestic policy changes, and a high-interest rate environment continue to weigh on the company. We remain patient and supportive of management as they work to execute on their Turkish expansion strategy. While the move into Turkey is facing short-term challenges, we believe it will ultimately prove to be a smart decision in hindsight, as it helps the company diversify its geographic footprint into a country with higher growth ceiling. |
| VU.PA | As expected, VU continues to win new deals and expand its value-added services segment. On June 30th, Walmart sold 650,000 VU shares acquired through a convertible warrant issued as part of its store rollout agreement. This represents approximately 37% of Walmart's warrant holdings and was executed via a private placement, increasing the public free float. Although this led to a roughly 10% sell-off, we are not overly concerned by the divestment, as revenue visibility remains strong and Walmart has a history of trimming non-controlling stakes in its portfolio companies, most notably exiting its JD.com position near a bottom. |
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