| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
U.S. markets delivered another strong year in 2025, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 18% despite a weak December finish. The rally was driven by AI-focused companies, creating historic market concentration with just five stocks accounting for 45% of returns. International markets had a standout year, outperforming the U.S. by the widest margin since 2009, supported by a U.S. dollar that fell over 9%. The Federal Reserve cut rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions. Looking ahead to 2026, supportive policy tailwinds remain through continued Fed easing and fiscal stimulus via the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act. However, elevated U.S. equity valuations and late-cycle dynamics present risks. The labor market shows slowing momentum, and market concentration increases vulnerability to company-specific issues having broader implications. While earnings growth is expected to broaden beyond tech companies, the combination of high valuations and optimistic investor expectations leaves markets susceptible to surprises.
Markets delivered strong returns in 2025 driven by AI leadership and Fed easing, but face elevated valuations and late-cycle risks as we enter 2026 with supportive policy tailwinds offset by concentration concerns and slowing labor market dynamics.
Looking ahead to 2026, supportive policy tailwinds remain, but valuation and late-cycle risks matter. The Federal Reserve easing combined with fiscal stimulus measures may continue to support growth. However, late-cycle dynamics are becoming more visible with labor market slowing and investor expectations remaining optimistic, leaving markets vulnerable to surprises.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Dollar, Fed, growth, international, rates, technology, value | - | Markets delivered strong 2025 returns driven by AI concentration and Fed easing, but face elevated valuations entering 2026. International markets outperformed on dollar weakness. Policy support continues through rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, yet late-cycle risks emerge with slowing labor markets and historic concentration levels creating vulnerability to surprises despite broadening earnings expectations. |
| Nov 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, earnings, Federal Reserve, growth, small caps, tariffs, technology, Valuations | - | Q3 2025 delivered strong equity gains with the S&P 500 up 8%, driven by Fed rate cuts and AI spending. However, extreme market concentration and historically high valuations at 24x earnings create risk. Small caps rebounded after 966 days while trade policy uncertainty and rising unemployment signal caution ahead. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Dollar, earnings, growth, international, rates, Trade Policy, value | - | Markets delivered historic V-shaped recovery from tariff-induced selloff as policy de-escalation and AI-driven earnings growth drove S&P 500 to new highs. Dollar weakness boosted international outperformance while Fed holds rates steady. Portfolio tilts toward quality large-cap stocks and international exposure, avoiding mid-cap due to rate sensitivity. Strong technical momentum faces elevated valuation risks and policy uncertainty ahead. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | AI, diversification, inflation, Recession, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy, volatility | - | US markets corrected sharply in Q1 2025 as tariff uncertainty and AI disruption concerns drove the S&P 500 down 4% and tech stocks to their worst quarter since 2020. Diversified portfolios outperformed with defensive sectors, international stocks, and bonds providing positive returns. Elevated volatility expected to continue as unprecedented tariff policies create economic uncertainty. |
| Jan 22 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Fed policy, growth, large cap, rates, Valuations | - | AI-driven large-cap growth dominated 2024 with 25% S&P 500 gains, but record valuations and policy uncertainties create challenging 2025 setup. Magnificent Seven averaged 60% returns while broader market lagged significantly. Economic foundation remains solid but momentum downshifting. Trump administration policies present both growth opportunities through deregulation and inflation risks through tariffs. |
| Oct 18 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | China, earnings, Federal Reserve, inflation, market breadth, rates, value | - | Leonard Rickey maintains overweight equities despite elevated valuations, citing strong earnings, Fed rate cuts, and improving market breadth favoring value over growth. Key risks include geopolitical tensions and consumer spending moderation. Portfolio positioned toward US large value, midcap opportunities, and shorter-duration bonds while benefiting from accommodative monetary policy tailwinds. |
| Jul 19 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA | AI, Concentration, diversification, growth, inflation, large cap, rates, technology | - | Leonard Rickey maintains overweight equity positioning despite extreme market concentration in AI-driven mega-caps. While NVIDIA and peers dominated Q2 returns, the firm emphasizes diversification into undervalued segments like large value and mid-cap. Expects Fed rate cuts to broaden market participation as inflation moderates and economic growth continues, though election volatility may create near-term pullback opportunities. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | earnings, growth, inflation, momentum, rates, value | - | Leonard Rickey maintains bullish positioning on U.S. equities, citing strong momentum that historically persists and solid economic fundamentals. Despite sticky inflation forcing fewer expected Fed rate cuts, the firm sees supportive conditions for continued gains. They favor undervalued segments like large value and midcap while using shorter-term bonds and inflation hedges for portfolio balance. |
| Jan 17 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Fed policy, growth, inflation, rates, Soft Landing, technology | - | Leonard Rickey sees 2023 as a successful Fed soft landing with the S&P 500 up 26%. They maintain diversified positioning for multiple scenarios, favor shorter-duration bonds over extreme rate cut expectations, and plan to exploit any equity weakness to increase exposure. Technical indicators support continued 2024 gains despite near-term uncertainty. |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Bonds, equities, inflation, positioning, rates, value | - | Q3 market weakness creates buying opportunities as valuations outside mega-cap tech offer compelling margins of safety. Rising rates will eventually slow growth but current pullback appears corrective rather than start of bear market. Positioned to increase equity exposure in value sectors while maintaining shorter-duration bond overweight until rate trends change. |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, growth, inflation, large cap, rates, technology, US, value | - | Leonard Rickey navigated Q2's AI-driven rally with neutral positioning, underweighting concentrated mega-cap tech while positioning for broadening into value and small caps. Despite strong economic resilience and moderating inflation, elevated valuations, record market concentration, and sticky wage pressures create meaningful recession risks for 2024. |
| Apr 14 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, Bonds, growth, inflation, rates, Recession, value | - | Leonard Rickey reduced equity exposure to neutral amid conflicting signals where technical indicators suggest upside potential but economic data points toward recession risks following major bank failures. The firm believes markets are pricing in too many Fed rate cuts given persistent inflation and resilient employment, positioning defensively in short-term bonds while favoring value stocks. |
| Jan 13 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 13 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI was a dominant market driver of U.S. stocks and continues to influence market leadership. The AI-driven rally led to historic levels of market concentration with just five stocks accounting for nearly 45% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025. Strong AI-related investment was the backbone of U.S. growth in 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Market Concentration Growth Innovation |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions and supporting markets. The Fed resumed rate cuts in September and markets expect further easing into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Historically, equities have responded favorably following the restart of easing cycles. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Easing Financial Conditions | |
InflationThe inflation storm that dominated recent years appeared to be easing, at least in the short term. November and December inflation surprised to the downside, easing investor concerns about persistent inflation pressures. However, inflation is likely to remain above target near term. |
Consumer Prices Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Economic Data | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell over 9% in 2025, pressured by a high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. With the Federal Reserve still focused on easing policy and other global central banks either at or near the end of their rate cutting cycles, narrowing interest rate differentials may drive a further decline. |
Currency Exchange Rates International Monetary Policy | |
ValueStyle performance was mixed with Value rebounding relative to Growth in Q4. Sector leadership broadened in Q4 as Growth cooled and cyclical Value sectors gained traction. Most sectors posted gains during the quarter, led by economically sensitive sectors such as Financial, Materials, and Industrials. |
Investment Style Sector Rotation Cyclicals Financials Materials | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI remained the dominant force across capital markets and the general economy. Tech companies are engaging in large-scale investments in AI infrastructure, benefiting many AI-related companies and contributing meaningfully to GDP growth. The consensus was that AI is a transformative technology with long-term benefits that justify the high costs. |
Infrastructure Technology Capex GDP Transformative |
Small CapsSmall-cap stocks hit new all-time highs for the first time since 2021 after 966 days. With interest rates coming down and expected to fall further in 2026, the earnings outlook for small caps in 2026 shifted meaningfully. This is the first time in years that we have seen a sustained and meaningful earnings growth outlook for small caps. |
Interest Rates Earnings Recovery Valuation | |
BuybacksNear-record corporate buybacks supported the market's resilience during Q3. Robust ETF inflows, near-record corporate buybacks, and limited selling pressure supported the market's resilience. |
Corporate Support Resilience | |
Trade PolicyTrade policy continued to be a source of uncertainty during the quarter. The average U.S. tariff rate remained at 90-year highs, a steep rise from less than 3% at the beginning of the year. The actual tariff rate was around 13% in the third quarter. Policy remains highly uncertain, but tariff news will likely continue to weigh on growth and boost inflation in the short term. |
Tariffs Uncertainty Inflation Growth | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% in September for the first time this year and signaled additional cuts were likely. Expectations of lower interest rates and easier financial conditions helped small-cap stocks hit new all-time highs. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections anticipates two future drops as of the September meeting. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Cuts Financial Conditions | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump announced sweeping baseline 10% tariffs and threatened 50% reciprocal levies, causing initial market decline. Most reciprocal tariffs were suspended for 90 days with U.S.-China de-escalation providing market relief. Trade policies heightened economic uncertainty and weakened consumer confidence. |
Tariffs Trade War China Policy Uncertainty |
AIAI theme is broadening out to non-tech industries that could drive productivity and boost profits long term. Earnings expectations remained positive driven by ongoing growth in AI sectors such as technology and industrials. AI productivity may contribute to strong corporate earnings environment. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Industrials Earnings | |
DollarU.S. dollar declined 10.8% in first half, its worst start since 1979. Dollar posted second straight quarterly decline and worst first-half performance in decades. Concerns around inflation caused by deficits, money printing, and economic isolationism helped non-U.S. stocks outperform. |
Currency Weakness International Outperformance Inflation | |
RatesFed maintained benchmark interest rate range of 4.25-4.50% and remained divided on necessity or timing of potential rate cuts. Market pricing signaled three more rate cuts in 2025. Real yields recently reached highest levels since 2015, indicating longer-term bonds offering more attractive income potential. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Rate Cuts Yields Bonds | |
EarningsS&P 500 earnings per share grew at approximately 10% in Q1. Earnings expectations remained positive driven by ongoing growth in AI sectors. Low corporate taxes, regulatory reforms, and AI productivity may contribute to strong corporate earnings environment. Earnings have driven nearly all long-term stock market returns. |
Corporate Earnings Growth S&P 500 Returns Profitability | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyUS administration introduced universal 10% tariff on all imports with higher reciprocal tariffs targeting specific countries. Combined tariffs estimated to increase effective rate to 22.5%, marking largest escalation for US tariffs in postwar era. Uncertainty around tariffs' impact and true intent remains, with considerable uncertainty about duration and economic ramifications. |
Tariffs Trade Inflation Manufacturing Imports |
VolatilityMarket volatility expected to remain elevated due to tariff uncertainty and policy changes. S&P 500 declined over 17% from February highs through April 4th, with tech-heavy Nasdaq down 22.3%. Technical indicators have significantly deteriorated with all major US indexes breaking below key support levels. |
Market Correction Support Technical Uncertainty | |
AIChina's DeepSeek potentially disrupting AI contributed to market uncertainty and investor concerns. Technology stocks posted their worst quarter since 2020, with the Magnificent Seven having their worst quarter on record, highlighting the importance of diversification in AI-heavy portfolios. |
DeepSeek Technology Disruption China Innovation | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence led to strong gains for US large-cap growth stocks and the Magnificent Seven companies. The boom in artificial intelligence was a key driver of stock performance throughout the year. Technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence could result in meaningful labor productivity gains. |
Technology Growth Productivity Innovation Large Cap |
ValuationsValuations are near record highs on the S&P 500, with a lot of good news priced in leaving little room for positive surprises. High valuations may be a recipe for increased volatility in 2025 and fatten the downside tail if risks arise. Valuation growth, not earnings growth, drove the bulk of gains in recent years. |
Risk Multiples Premium Downside Volatility | |
RatesThe Fed cut short-term rates but longer-term rates rose due to higher economic growth expectations and inflation concerns. Rising yields signal higher nominal economic growth expectations but also carry inflation risks. Real yields reached their highest level since 2015. |
Fed Monetary Policy Inflation Growth Real Yields | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut in four years and representing a significant policy shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. Markets anticipate further easing over the next 24 months, with expectations for the Fed's target rate to decline from 5% to 3% by end of 2025. Lower rates are expected to boost smaller companies' earnings and provide economic stimulus. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Monetary Policy Economic Stimulus Bond Yields |
EarningsCorporate earnings were a key driver of market performance in Q3, with 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations. Overall profit margins for US publicly listed companies appeared healthy and stable, supported by effective cost management, improved margins, and resilient consumer demand. However, profit margins for smaller companies have been deteriorating for more than two years. |
Corporate Earnings Profit Margins S&P 500 Cost Management Consumer Demand | |
ValueDuring the third quarter, financial markets experienced a significant shift away from growth areas toward value and small-cap stocks. Market breadth was notably strong with nearly 70% of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 Index compared to just 25% in the first half of the year. The firm continues to see attractive opportunities in undervalued parts of the market such as US large value and US midcap. |
Value Investing Market Breadth Small Cap Undervalued Market Rotation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIMarket gains were concentrated among the largest companies in the information technology and communications sectors, which were expected to benefit from artificial intelligence developments. NVIDIA rose 37% during the second quarter, accounting for 44% of the S&P 500's quarterly performance. The AI theme benefitted the largest companies and contributed to narrow market breadth. |
NVIDIA Technology Growth Semiconductors Large Cap |
RatesRecent economic data favored the Fed to cut rates from restrictive levels. Despite other central banks cutting rates, the Fed kept rates steady in the quarter, defying market expectations for several rate cuts entering this year. By the end of the quarter, markets were expecting two rate cuts through the end of 2024. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Central Banks Economic Data | |
InflationInflation continued to progress lower, and the labor market cooled somewhat from the tight conditions after COVID. Core inflation continued to ease, falling from 3.8% in March to 3.3% in June. Easing inflation pressures pointed to a potential rate cut from the Fed later this year. |
Core Inflation Labor Market Economic Conditions Federal Reserve Consumer Prices | |
| 2024 Q1 |
MomentumThe S&P 500 posted its fifth straight positive monthly return, up over 25% since October 31st, 2023. Historical studies show that when stocks were this strong in the past, forward returns were both better than market averages and had higher odds of gains. The momentum has been unusually positive, with very few draw-downs. |
Momentum Bull Market Uptrend Rally |
InflationFebruary headline CPI increased to 3.2% year over year, sparking concerns that inflation may be sticky above the Fed's 2% target. Longer-term dynamics such as changing labor markets, continued fiscal stimulus, deglobalization of supply chains, and underinvestment in infrastructure kept inflation risks higher than normal. |
Inflation CPI Fed Target Price Stability | |
RatesMarkets were expecting six rate cuts in 2024 at the beginning of the quarter, but by the end expectations were for three cuts. The Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer, raising the risk of a recession. Bond yields rose and prices fell, with longer-term bonds suffering the most. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy Rate Cuts Bond Yields | |
ValuePerformance broadened out away from the mega-cap tech names that dominated performance in 2023. The firm continues to like undervalued parts of the market such as exposure to US large value and US midcap. Over the last two quarters, glimpses of markets broadening into value, small-cap, and non-US markets were observed. |
Value Investing Market Breadth Undervalued Large Value | |
| 2023 Q4 |
RatesThe Fed raised interest rates 4.25% in 2022 and another 1% in 2023 to the highest level in over 20 years. At their December meeting, officials signaled no additional increases were expected and they will likely lower rates in the coming year. Markets dramatically repriced bonds during the fourth quarter, pricing in around six rate cuts in 2024 and an additional three in 2025. |
Fed Policy Rate Cuts Bond Yields Duration Monetary Policy |
InflationInflation was clearly on the decline by the end of 2023, and it appeared that the Fed had engineered a soft landing. The cumulative impact of the Fed's actions resulted in achieving its objective to slow demand and reduce inflation toward its target of 2% without causing a recession. |
Soft Landing Fed Target Disinflation Economic Cooling | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates higher for longer, pushing the 10-year Treasury note significantly higher during the quarter from 3.84% to 4.57%. This monetary tightening cycle has been the steepest and fastest over the past 40 years. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for everything from mortgages to corporate debt, which will likely impact consumer spending and the economy at some point. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Treasury Monetary Policy Bond Yields |
ValueWhen looking under the hood of the S&P 500 or at other major equity markets like small-cap and non-US stocks, valuations remained at much more significant discounts to fair value than the overall S&P 500 Index. The firm continued to have substantial positions in areas outside of the top seven companies because they saw a larger margin of safety embedded in their valuations. |
Valuations Small Cap Margin of Safety Discounts Fair Value | |
InflationInflation decreased more than wage gains, resulting in growing real wages and more fuel for continued consumption. However, 4% wage growth was still too high to bring down inflation on a longer-term basis. Good progress has been made on supply chain effects, but wage inflation continued to linger as a source of longer-term concern. |
Wage Growth Real Wages Supply Chain Consumer Spending Price Pressures | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIExcitement around artificial intelligence propelled growth stocks to outsized gains during the quarter. The AI theme drove mega-cap tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla and Meta to rise sharply. This narrow AI-driven rally resulted in concentration concerns as these seven companies had a collective weighting in the S&P 500 larger than six entire sectors combined. |
Technology Growth Semiconductors Cloud Data Centers |
InflationInflation continued to moderate due to lower energy, homes, and durable goods prices, which along with rising wages left consumer spending in good shape. However, the inflation picture looks more challenging after the next few quarters as tight labor markets kept sticky inflation categories like wages elevated. The Federal Reserve has never lowered inflation by 4% or more without triggering a recession. |
Rates Volatility Growth Value | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve remained committed to reducing inflation, indicating it will hike interest rates at least once more, bringing interest rates to their highest levels in more than two decades. Higher interest rates created some slowdown in interest rate-sensitive areas like housing, but the economy appears less interest rate sensitive than in prior cycles due to refinancing at low rates. |
Inflation Volatility Growth Value | |
| 2023 Q1 |
RatesInterest rate expectations changed dramatically during the quarter from pricing in additional hikes to rate cuts by year-end following bank failures. The Fed raised rates in March but adjusted language and tone significantly. Markets are currently pricing in significant rate cuts which the firm believes may not materialize given resilient labor markets and persistent inflation. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy Rate Cuts Monetary Policy Central Bank |
Credit StressThe second largest bank failure in US history created concerns about systematic risks in the banking sector. While regulators responded quickly to alleviate systematic risks, tighter lending standards from banks are expected to weigh on economically sensitive sectors and potentially pull forward recession risks. |
Bank Failures Lending Standards Banking Sector Systematic Risk Credit | |
InflationInflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target with particular persistence in the service sector and wage inflation. While goods inflation has moderated, the firm notes that markets have embedded rapid inflation decline into prices, creating vulnerability if inflation proves stickier than expected. |
Inflation Wage Growth Service Sector Price Pressures Fed Target |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
