| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
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| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, asset allocation, diversification, Fed policy, rebalancing, Valuations | - | Strong 2025 market returns driven by easing rates and pro-business policies, but elevated U.S. valuations near tech bubble levels demand discipline. Focus on controllable factors through asset allocation and diversification rather than market timing. Current environment opportune for rebalancing to manage elevated risks while maintaining broad diversification across geographies for better risk-adjusted returns. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | diversification, international, Recession, tariffs, Trade Policy, value, volatility | - | Trade policy uncertainty drove significant Q1 volatility with the S&P 500 down 4.8% as growth stocks declined sharply. Diversified portfolios with value and international exposure outperformed. Recession risks have risen to 50% amid stagflation concerns, but the firm expects cooler heads to prevail and advocates maintaining balanced positioning rather than reactive changes. |
| Jan 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, INTC, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, TSLA | AI, China, Federal Reserve, gold, Magnificent 7, rates, technology | - | AI infrastructure spending drives technology leadership while Federal Reserve rate cuts support markets despite independence concerns. Physical gold and miners deliver exceptional returns as institutional money joins central bank accumulation. Chinese equities break out at attractive valuations. Manager maintains technology exposure while favoring ex-US opportunities and gold as portfolio insurance against mounting debt risks. |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, VOW3.DE | Europe, Federal Reserve, gold, infrastructure, Japan, technology, Trump | - | TEAM delivered strong Q4 performance through systematic trend-following, with US mega-cap technology driving returns as the Magnificent 7 gained 67% in 2024. The manager enters 2025 overweight equities with a barbell approach: US mega-cap tech as core, ex-US as satellites. Key risks include inflationary policies restricting Fed cuts, while catalysts include ECB easing and Japan's governance revolution. |
| Jul 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZJ.AX, CABK.MC, CIP.AX, COL.AX, CS1.AX, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, KKR, LLOY.L, MIN.AX, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NEX.PA, NST.AX, QUB.AX, SPEC.L, TECK, VK.PA, WYNN | Banking, commodities, Copper, cyclicals, Europe, gold, value | - | PM Capital's Global Companies Fund rose 10% in Q3 2025, outperforming markets through disciplined value investing in undervalued cyclicals. Strong contributions from gold miners benefiting from record prices and copper producers amid supply disruptions. European banks delivered robust returns despite attractive valuations. Fund maintains differentiated positioning focused on quality businesses trading at bottom-quartile valuations. |
| Apr 11 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, A91.L, BIRG.I, CABK.MC, CGF.AX, DGE.L, FCX, HEIA.AS, INGA.AS, LLOY.L, NEM, NEM.AX, RI.PA, SHEL.L, SIE.DE, SNY, SPN.L, TECK, WYNN | commodities, defense, European Banks, gaming, infrastructure, Onshoring, undervalued, value | - | PM Capital delivered 8.1% quarterly returns driven by undervalued European banks and commodity holdings. The fund focuses on high-quality companies leveraged to global themes including European bank recovery from infrastructure spending and commodity supply constraints from underinvestment. Key contributors included AIB Group, Newmont, and Macau gaming stocks. The strategy requires patient capital for multi-year themes. |
| Oct 1 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 1928.HK, BAC, BHP, CGF.AX, CNI.AX, CRN.AX, FCX, HEIA.AS, IMD.AX, ING, JPM, MIN.AX, NEE, RPRX, SHEL, SIE.DE, SMR.AX, SNY, WDS.AX, WYNN | Copper, European Banks, global, infrastructure, tariffs, valuation | - | PM Capital delivered strong Q1 returns driven by European banks and industrials benefiting from accelerated infrastructure spending amid US tariff policies. The fund maintains disciplined value positioning, favoring undervalued European assets while avoiding overvalued US technology. Despite tariff-driven volatility, managers expect their European exposure to benefit from increased defense and infrastructure investment. |
| Jul 11 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI continued as a major theme with over 300 S&P 500 companies mentioning artificial intelligence on earnings calls. However, scrutiny increased around AI-related revenue circularity, massive capital spending scale, and durability of longer-term returns on investment. Oracle faced concerns about OpenAI backlog concentration risk and significant debt required for datacenter commitments. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Capital Spending Revenue Circularity Infrastructure |
Trade PolicyTrade relations between the U.S. and China remained a key market focus with tensions flaring over tariff escalations and export controls. China dramatically expanded export controls on rare earth minerals while the U.S. threatened 100% tariffs in retaliation. A one-year trade truce was ultimately reached between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. |
Tariffs China Export Controls Rare Earth Minerals Trade Relations | |
CryptoThe fund added Coinbase Global as a new position, viewing it as the dominant player in the U.S. cryptocurrency market with over 65% trading volume share. The company benefits from regulatory clarity through the GENIUS Act and anticipated CLARITY Act, boosting institutional adoption and trading volumes. |
Cryptocurrency Trading Volume Regulatory Clarity Institutional Adoption Compliance | |
Infrastructure SpendingThe fund added APi Group, which benefits from government incentives including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and CHIPS Act, contributing to increased infrastructure spending and growth opportunities. The company operates in fire safety, security, and specialty infrastructure solutions with substantial recurring revenue. |
Infrastructure Investment CHIPS Act Fire Safety Recurring Revenue Government Incentives | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIArtificial Intelligence is driving structural changes in the economy, boosting productivity and reshaping labor dynamics. AI may be playing a major role in the recent uptick in productivity, similar to past technological revolutions like electrification and the internet that resulted in significant increases in labor productivity. There is dangerous concentration of money flowing into AI-related stocks. |
Productivity Technology Labor Structural Innovation |
ValuationsU.S. equity valuations are quite elevated in historical context with the P/E ratio at 22.8x, exceeded only by the May 2000 reading of 25.2x near the top of the tech bubble. High valuations suggest narrower margins for safety and portfolio risk has risen relative to investor limits. From current P/E levels, median 1-year returns were in low single digits and 5-year returns were near zero. |
P/E Ratio Margins Safety Risk Returns | |
RatesThe Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, roughly in line with pre-2008 norms. The Fed's stance reflects balancing support for a cooling labor market while remaining watchful for inflation. With Fed rates near 4%, the Fed has room to lean toward easing, though investors may have overconfidence that the Fed can cut rates significantly. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Easing Labor Market Inflation | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration's trade policies and inconsistent messaging have sparked significant uncertainty for businesses, consumers, and investors. The scope of tariff policies enacted on Liberation Day was a negative surprise, representing a carpet bombing approach rather than targeted tariffs. This threatens to have a chilling effect as businesses struggle to align employment and growth initiatives amid shifting policies. |
Tariffs Trade War Stagflation Recession Policy |
VolatilityMarkets experienced substantial volatility with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% in Q1, primarily on sharp declines in the Mag 7 stocks. The period ahead is likely to be marked by uncertain planning conditions for businesses and continuing volatility for investors. Stock traders have decided to shoot first and ask questions later on tariffs. |
Market Volatility Uncertainty Risk Correction Drawdown | |
Risk AppetiteGrowing concerns around trade and other policies have transformed a relatively calm backdrop to one of concern about recession. Investors sought refuge in not-so-highly-priced large-cap value and international stocks. The potential for stagflation complicates the picture for the Fed, increasing the risk of monetary policy error. |
Risk Management Defensive Flight to Quality Diversification Positioning | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI fever has gripped markets with the Magnificent 7 recapturing leadership. Nvidia delivered $47 billion revenue with 56% growth, describing AI infrastructure as entering a new industrial revolution. An estimated $350 billion this year and $400 billion next year will be spent on AI-related equipment by major US technology companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Technology |
GoldPhysical gold and miners delivered phenomenal returns with gold returning over 19% and mining stocks close to 50%. Global central banks continue accumulating gold as marginal buyers, while ETF inflows signal institutional money joining the party. The manager views this as early innings of a secular bull market cycle. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Central Banks Dollar Debasement Portfolio Insurance | |
RatesFederal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point cut with Powell describing it as a risk management cut to forestall labor market weakness. Money markets are pricing additional rate cuts, though tariff-related inflation risks remain a concern. The manager expects continued easing cycle. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Inflation Rate Cuts | |
ChinaChinese equities broke out to decade-plus highs with Shanghai Index returning 15.7%. The anti-involution initiative aimed at curbing excessive price competition is being well received. Chinese internet companies trade at substantial discounts to American counterparts while earnings continue inflecting upwards. |
Chinese Equities Internet Valuation Discount Earnings Growth Technology | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIUS mega-cap technology companies continue to invest extraordinary sums in semiconductor chips and AI capabilities, driving impressive revenue and margin growth. A key piece of the puzzle remains finding meaningful consumer applications to justify these investments. Markets view these companies as being as safe as government debt. |
Technology Semiconductors Revenue Growth Consumer Applications Investment |
Infrastructure SpendingThe American Society of Civil Engineers assigned a C- grade to US infrastructure in 2021, highlighting chronic need for major investment. Effective infrastructure investment is one of the most productive uses of government spending. Markets anticipate President-elect Trump will acknowledge this, providing earnings visibility for exposed companies. |
Government Spending Infrastructure Earnings Visibility Investment Gap Productivity | |
GoldGold returned 6.45% in Q4 and touched new all-time highs across many currencies. Record central bank buying continues since Q3 2022, potentially triggered by America's decision to freeze Russia's reserves. 2024 was the only year on record where gold rallied over 25% while the US dollar also rose over 5%. |
Central Banks Currency All-time Highs Dollar Strength Reserve Assets | |
BuybacksJapan's corporate governance revolution driven by the Tokyo Stock Exchange is driving enhanced returns through rising dividends and share buybacks. Share buybacks continue to surge, rising to a record ¥15 trillion this fiscal year compared with ¥8 trillion during the same period last year. |
Corporate Governance Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange Dividends Record Levels | |
| 2024 Q2 |
CopperFund maintains heavy exposure to copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following supply disruptions at major mines. The Freeport Grasberg mine accident significantly reduced output and shifted market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. |
Copper Mining Supply Deficit Grasberg |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% price rise to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% while Northern Star rallied 26% since purchase. Despite record gold prices, investor ownership of gold equities remains low. Valuations still attractive with competitive capital returns relative to broader market. |
Gold Miners Newmont Northern Star Valuations | |
BankingEuropean bank positions delivered strong results with steeper yield curve and growing confidence in infrastructure spending driving economic activity. Caixabank rose 22% yet still trades below 11 times earnings. Bank plans €12bn of shareholder returns over 2025-27, equivalent to roughly 20% of market capitalisation. |
Banking Europe Caixabank Yields Returns | |
| 2024 Q1 |
European UnionEuropean banks are significantly undervalued relative to US and Australian peers. Rising infrastructure and defence spending in Europe will stimulate industrial activity and credit demand. A reviving European economy could create jobs and boost anaemic credit growth. |
Banks Infrastructure Defense Valuation Credit |
CommoditiesUnderinvestment in resource projects will constrain commodity supply, supporting higher metal prices. President Trump is using commodities as bargaining chips for trade concessions. Artificial barriers to commodity supply coincide with decades of global underinvestment. |
Copper Gold Supply Underinvestment Trade | |
OnshoringThe COVID-19 pandemic encouraged multinationals to increase manufacturing at home to reduce global supply chain risks. President Trump wants more manufacturing to return to the US and his use of tariffs could accelerate global reshoring. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Tariffs Automation Factory | |
GamingGaming positions provided positive contributions with MGM China rising 23% and Wynn Resorts gaining 12%. The sector rebounded in June driven by improved Macau gaming data and tourism recovery. |
Macau Casinos Tourism Recovery China | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTariffs have become the primary market driver, creating uncertainty across global markets. The fund analyzes both direct impacts on holdings and second-order effects including consumer sentiment, inflation, and corporate capital expenditure decisions. |
Tariffs Protectionism Trade Policy Uncertainty |
European BanksEuropean banks performed exceptionally well as increasing US protectionist policies accelerated Europe's decision to significantly increase infrastructure and defense spending. The fund expects this to lead to higher economic activity and benefit their largest European bank positions. |
Banks Europe Infrastructure Defense Lending | |
CopperPresident Trump's executive order investigating copper imports created a widening spread between Comex and LME futures. The fund holds copper producers with domestic US production that benefit from structurally higher US prices due to tariffs. |
Copper Comex LME Mining Tariffs | |
Infrastructure SpendingEurope's increasing focus on infrastructure and defense spending should lead to higher economic activity. The fund expects Siemens to be a direct beneficiary with its broad exposure to factory automation and smart infrastructure. |
Infrastructure Defense Automation Europe Spending |
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