| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | -7.4% | -8.3% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| -8.3% | 8.6% |
Liberty Park Fund declined 7.36% net in Q4 2025 versus a 2.19% Russell 2000 gain, with gross exposure averaging 166.63% and net exposure at 16.11%. The manager maintains a contrarian stance against what they view as an AI-driven market bubble reminiscent of the dot-com era. Despite trillions in AI infrastructure spending commitments, few companies report meaningful incremental revenue, creating an enormous gap between investment and returns. The fund was early shorting speculative AI-related companies but believes a market reset remains inevitable. Long positions showed mixed results, with BELFB delivering strong aerospace and defense demand while ARQ and THRY disappointed on execution and SaaS metrics respectively. The manager expects AI investment fatigue to emerge as construction delays and supply chain issues cool the data center market. With Federal Reserve rate cuts nearing neutral levels, the economy must rely on fundamentals rather than monetary support. Management believes their portfolio positioning will benefit when fundamental analysis returns to prominence, as narrow market breadth concentrated in large-cap technology stocks eventually broadens.
Liberty Park Fund maintains a contrarian stance against the AI-driven market bubble, positioning for an inevitable reset when fundamentals matter again as Federal Reserve support diminishes.
The manager expects AI investment fatigue to emerge and believes a market reset is inevitable as the gap between AI spending and revenue generation becomes more apparent. With the Fed nearing neutral interest rates, the economy will need to stand on fundamentals, which should favor their current positioning.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ARQ, BELFB, LAKE, MEC, THRY, XMTR | AI, Bubble, fundamentals, Long/Short, Market Excess, small cap, technology, value |
BELFB MEC XMTR ARQ THRY |
The manager believes AI holds transformative potential comparable to the internet but views the current market frenzy as echoing the dot-com bubble. Despite trillions in… |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BKTI, BOOM, LMB, NSSC, WHR, XMTR | AI Bubble, Co-Investments, risk management, small caps, Speculation | - | Liberty Park warns of speculative excess reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where unprofitable companies rebrand as AI plays to attract investors. The fund remains long… |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AUR, COMP, HAYPP SS, LAKE, LBRT, LMB, NSSC, NWL, QUBT, SKY, XMTR | alpha, Long/Short, policy risk, Speculation, volatility |
XMTR NSSC SKY LAKE |
The letter frames volatility as both a risk and an opportunity, driven by tariffs, policy reversals, and speculative behavior. Management describes using long and short… |
| Apr 17 2025 | 2025 Q1 | NSSC | - | - | - |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CGNX, GTLS, HQI, INOD, INOQ, LWLG, MOD, NVEE, SOUN, THRY, UPWK, XMTR, YOU | - | - | - |
| Oct 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AUR, CLAR, CLW, ENVX, ETD, INTT, ITI, KRNT, MEG, SWIM, XMTR | - | - | - |
| Jul 25 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BLBD, COHR, ENVX, ETD, HEES, INTT, KRNT, LMB, LWLG, PRIM, RELL, SWIM | - | - | - |
| Apr 18 2024 | 2024 Q1 | NSSC | - | - | - |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AMWD, BELFB, CMT, GPI, HCC, INTT, KOP, LMB, TGLS, VSH | - | - | - |
| Oct 20 2023 | 2023 Q3 | LUNA, NR, POWL, TGLS | - | - | - |
| Jul 19 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BELFB, BOWL, ETWO, EXP, ITI, LUNA, NR, POWL, WEAV, YOU | - | - | - |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ALTR, ATI, HEES, INTT, ITI, KRNT, LBRT, LSTR, LUNA, THRY, TITN, TWI, ZEUS | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Data CentersComfort Systems USA benefited from robust demand for data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the company reporting stronger-than-expected revenue driven by this demand. |
Infrastructure Technology Construction AI Revenue | |
SPACsThe Fund operates three SPAC strategies: arbitrage, non-redemption agreements, and proprietary investments. SPAC IPO issuance was robust with 144 IPOs raising over $30bn in 2025, but transaction announcements lagged at only 65 deals. The supply-demand imbalance created attractive yields for the Fund while recent IPOs underperformed with 70% losing money net of financing costs. |
SPAC arbitrage Non-redemption agreements SPAC IPOs Transaction announcements Trust value | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | XMTR | Xometry, Inc. | Industrials | Industrial Distribution | Neutral | NASDAQ | manufacturing, marketplace, Operatingleverage, Reshoring, Supplychain | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | NSSC | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | Industrials | Security Systems | Bull | NASDAQ | Margins, Recurringrevenue, Security, services, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | SKY | Skyline Champion Corporation | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | affordability, Cyclicality, Housing, manufacturing, Margins | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | LAKE | Lakeland Industries, Inc. | Industrials | Safety Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | emergingmarkets, Ordertiming, Protectiveequipment, recovery, tariffs | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | BELFB | Bel Fuse Inc. Class B | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Components, Defense, Networking, Operatingleverage | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | MEC | Mayville Engineering Company | Industrials | Metal Fabrication | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, datacenters, infrastructure, Margins, Metalfabrication | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | XMTR | Xometry, Inc. | Industrials | Industrial Distribution | Bull | NASDAQ | growth, manufacturing, marketplace, Networkeffects, platform | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | ARQ | Arq, Inc. | Industrials | Environmental Services | Bear | NASDAQ | Capacity, Carbon, Delays, Executionrisk, guidance | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Charles P. Murphy | THRY | Thryv Holdings, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Competition, growth, Retention, SaaS, SMB | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ARQ | Unfortunately, in the fourth quarter, ARQ suffered very expensive delays in its efforts to bring on the GAC capacity we were counting on to drive growth going forward. In fact, these issues seem to now go beyond simple delays and into a potential questioning of their core underlying production methodology. This has led to a significant reduction in cash flow expectations, which has also brought the company's balance sheet into play. |
| BELFB | We should also give recognition to Wesco International (NYSE:WCC), Bel Fuse Inc (Nasdaq:BELFB), and Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha (Tokyo:4028) which all had great 2025 returns even though they were smaller positions in Blue Tower's portfolio. |
| LAKE | LAKE was our weakest performer in 4Q25, declining 45.31%. We had reduced our position ahead of its FY3Q26 report, as we thought there could be some weaknesses in sales and merger integration. While results were weaker than expected, we believe the share price decline was an overreaction, amplified by year-end tax-loss selling. LAKE retains a strong balance sheet, and we see a clear path to revenue growth in the global fire protection market through both organic initiatives and acquisitions. We also note that following the quarter a new holder filed a 13D and now owns 8.38% of the shares. |
| MEC | MEC was our top 4Q25 performer, rising 34.8%. Shares rallied as investors began to look past 2025 cyclical sales weakness and envision the potential sales strength a 2026-2027 recovery could bring. The stock also benefited from enthusiasm around the Accu-Fab acquisition, which opened the data-center equipment market to MEC. While we remain positive on the company's long-term prospects, we expect the cyclical recovery in its agriculture, truck, and consumer recreational end markets to be gradual and uneven. As a result, we modestly trimmed our position. |
| THRY | Finally, we realized a meaningful loss in Thryv Holdings Inc. (THRY). Despite my initial view that the company offered a 'hidden gem' SaaS business tucked within a legacy Yellow Pages wrapper, operating results did not develop as I expected. When we bought in Q1 2025, the SaaS segment had produced multiple quarters at or near Rule of 40 metrics and management laid out a credible cross-sell path to meaningfully grow mid-term recurring revenue. The thesis broke in Q3 2025 when seasoned net revenue retention fell 900 bps to 94%, exposing higher churn—especially among migrated Yellow Pages customers—while new product development was substantially delayed. With the growth plan reset and confidence in execution gone, we sold the position and will monitor from the sidelines. |
| XMTR | XMTR reported another better-than-expected quarter where marketplace revenue accelerated to 31%. Enterprise growth remained >40%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
