| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1% | 5.8% | 17.8% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | 26.0% | 10.8% |
Longriver Partners Fund returned -2.6% in Q4 2025, bringing full-year returns to 14.8% versus 22.3% for the MSCI AC World benchmark. The concentrated portfolio's performance was driven by top contributors Games Workshop, TSMC, Futu, Hikari Tsushin and Tencent, while underperformance stemmed from opportunity cost as larger positions like Meta, Wise, and Trip.com contributed little despite operating progress. The fund's investment philosophy centers on asymmetric returns through a small number of long-lived winners, accepting benchmark divergence to maximize compounding potential. TSMC exemplifies this approach, contributing ~16ppt of gross returns since inception versus the largest detractor PDD at ~2ppt. The manager emphasizes Wise as the portfolio's most asymmetric investment, positioned to benefit from the shift away from legacy correspondent banking toward cheaper, faster cross-border payment infrastructure. Risk management focuses on profitable businesses with cyclical resilience priced for bounded downside, while the upside comes from patient capital allowing winners to compound over extended periods.
The fund seeks asymmetric returns by finding a small number of long-lived winners that can compound over time, focusing on profitable businesses that have demonstrated cyclical resilience and are priced with margin of safety.
The manager anchors on Wise's medium-term framework of 15-20% underlying revenue growth with reinvestment keeping profitability within the 13-16% underlying margin corridor. The focus is on extending duration through continued investment in compliance, reliability, and distribution rather than just next year's numbers.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0700.HK, 3639.HK, 9435.T, ALAB.L, AMD, AMZN, CSU.TO, FUTU, GAW.L, META, NVDA, PDD, RELY, STRP, TCOM, TSM, WISE.L | Asia, Concentration, gaming, global, long-term, payments, semiconductors, value | WISE LN | Wise represents the most asymmetric investment in the portfolio, taking market share from legacy correspondent banking through cheaper, faster, and more transparent infrastructure. The company is evolving from a remittance app into a global financial services platform with three reinforcing routes to market: Consumer, Business and Platform. TSMC was highlighted as both a top contributor in 2025 and the largest positive contribution since inception at ~16ppt of gross returns. The company exemplifies the fund's approach of finding businesses that can reinvest well over the long term. Games Workshop was identified as a largest contributor in 2025 and also contributed meaningfully in 2024, demonstrating that patience pays when a business is delivering consistent results over multiple years. |
| Oct 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1523 HK | AI, Asia, Compounding, technology, Value Investing | 1523 HK | Longriver emphasizes investing in businesses benefiting from technological and regulatory disruption across global markets. The letter highlights inflection points where incumbents lose share to structurally advantaged challengers. Disruption remains investable as innovation reshapes industry economics. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMD, META, NVDA, TSM | Balance Sheets, cyclicality, Mean reversion, valuation gaps, value | - | The letter emphasizes classic value investing amid elevated dispersion between fundamentals and prices. Management highlights opportunities in underfollowed, asset-rich companies where normalized earnings power is obscured by temporary issues or cyclical pessimism. Patience and balance-sheet strength are positioned as key to capturing mean reversion. |
| Apr 18 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 1211 HK | - | - | |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | COST, WISE LN | - | - | |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 9435 JP | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSM | - | - | |
| Apr 19 2024 | 2024 Q1 | PDD, VTY LN | - | - | |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2023 Q4 | 600519 CH, AMZN, VTY LN | - | - | |
| Oct 9 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 669 HK, 700 HK, BRK/A, EVO SS, HDFCB IN, NTES, TSM | - | - | |
| Jul 5 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
GamingNintendo continues to demonstrate exceptional performance with Switch 2 becoming the fastest-selling console in history, selling 17.4 million units in just 7 months. The company has a historically rich first-party software pipeline and is building new recurring revenue streams through Nintendo Switch Online and its expanding cinematic universe. |
Nintendo Console Software Hardware Entertainment |
PaymentsWise represents the most asymmetric investment in the portfolio, taking market share from legacy correspondent banking through cheaper, faster, and more transparent infrastructure. The company is evolving from a remittance app into a global financial services platform with three reinforcing routes to market: Consumer, Business and Platform. |
Cross-border Fintech Infrastructure Platform SME | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
AsiaThe firm is increasing exposure to Asian markets as part of geographic diversification away from Americas where valuations are viewed as frothy. The team conducted extensive travel across China, Indonesia, and other Asian markets for research and relationship building. |
China Indonesia Diversification Valuation Research | |
Compounding |
||
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Graham Rhodes | 1523 HK | Plover Bay Technologies Ltd. | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NYSE | Connectivity, growth, Hong Kong, Networking, ROE, SaaS, Satellite, Starlink | Login |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Graham Rhodes | WISE LN | Wise plc | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Compliance, compounding, Crossborder, Fintech, Payments, Platforms | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 0700.HK | Shinya also visited Shenzhen, where Star Magnolia Capital organized an educational visit for our families to Tencent's headquarters, alongside meetings with several promising early-stage companies. |
| 9435.T | Hikari Tsushin was identified as one of the largest contributors in 2025. |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| CSU.TO | Broad pressure on the stocks of software companies enabled us to initiate a position in Constellation Software. This is a unique business we had on our radar for a long time but were never able to purchase due to its high valuation. At its core, the company is a permanent capital vehicle designed to acquire 'vertical market software' (VMS) businesses and hold them indefinitely. |
| FUTU | Futu was listed among the largest contributors for 2025. |
| GAW.L | Games Workshop was identified as one of the largest contributors in 2025 and also contributed meaningfully in 2024, a reminder that patience pays when a business is delivering. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| PDD | weakest performers included PDD (-14%) |
| RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. is a digitally native money transfer firm strategically capturing market share in the cross-border remittance space, competing effectively against established players such as Western Union and MoneyGram. The company has reached a scale that positions it for potentially substantial improvements in profitability going forward. Despite reporting robust quarterly earnings, the stock underperformed during the quarter, influenced by management's guidance indicating a deceleration in revenue growth compared to previous periods. This tempered outlook stems from challenging year-over-year comparisons and, to a lesser extent, immigration-related headwinds affecting remittance volumes. Nevertheless, Remitly continues to expand its market presence even amid a temporarily subdued demand environment. |
| TCOM | Trip.com was mentioned as a larger position that contributed little despite positive operating progress, representing opportunity cost. |
| TSM | TSMC was a top contributor during the quarter, driven by robust demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing and improved gross margins as AI continues to grow strong and the non-AI segment showed signs of recovery. Management raised its revenue growth guidance to the mid-30% range, and given continued strength in demand, AI-related growth targets are expected to move above the current mid-40% level. |
| WISE.L | Wise is the most asymmetric investment in our portfolio today and illustrates the idea of bounded downside and long-run upside in practice. Wise helps consumers and businesses hold and move money across borders, taking market share from the legacy correspondent banking model through infrastructure that is cheaper, faster, and more transparent. |
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