| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
MacNicol & Associates navigated 2025 successfully despite significant market volatility, including a brief tariff tantrum in April that saw markets drop 10-15% before recovering. The firm maintained focus on real assets and precious metals, which proved prescient as gold rose 64% and silver surged 142%, driven by central bank diversification away from US assets. Canadian equities delivered exceptional returns with the TSX up 28%, while the Magnificent Seven technology stocks continued to dominate US market gains. The strengthening Canadian dollar provided both opportunities and challenges for diversified portfolios. Looking ahead to 2026, key themes include the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm election dynamics, and the evolution of AI from infrastructure spending to productivity results. The firm emphasizes that while policy support is expected, current market valuations leave less room for disappointment, and historical patterns suggest potential for significant corrections even within healthy bull markets. Portfolio insurance and flexible approaches beyond traditional bonds remain essential.
Active investing requires trusting your compass rather than chasing every passing wave, with focus on real assets and precious metals providing protection against policy uncertainty while maintaining exposure to dominant technology themes.
The outlook for 2026 will be shaped by Federal Reserve transition, midterm election dynamics, and the evolution of AI from spending to productivity results. While policy support is expected, historical patterns suggest midterm years produce lower average returns, and current market extension above long-term trends suggests potential for 20-25% correction even within a healthy bull market.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Canada, Currency, Federal Reserve, Precious Metals, real assets, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Artificial intelligence continued to drive market returns with the Magnificent Seven contributing over 60% of S&P 500 gains. The narrative is evolving from infrastructure spending to productivity results, with markets likely to reward companies that translate AI adoption into real efficiency gains in 2026. Gold rose more than 64% in 2025, marking its strongest annual gain in over four decades. Demand was driven primarily by non-Western central banks and international investors seeking diversification away from US financial assets amid concerns around fiscal discipline and geopolitical risk. Silver surged 142% in 2025, its largest increase since the late 1970s, due to its dual role as a safe haven asset and critical industrial component for AI data centers and solar infrastructure. Markets experienced a brief 'tariff tantrum' in April 2025 following announcement of sweeping trade tariffs, with equity markets dropping 10-15% and volatility spiking into the 50s before quickly recovering by year end. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Alternatives, Artificial Intelligence, gold, Passive investing, Valuation risk | - | MacNicol warns of stretched valuations and heavy market concentration in AI and technology, comparing todays conditions to past speculative cycles. It highlights golds 110% surge since 2023 as a hedge against inflation, and stresses the importance of diversification and active management amid passive-driven distortion. The firm maintains exposure to real assets and alternatives to weather cyclical risks. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | asset allocation, diversification, Macro, risk control, volatility | VZ | The letter focuses on prudent portfolio allocation as macro uncertainty rises. Management highlights balancing growth assets with defensive exposures to preserve capital while maintaining long-term return potential. Diversification and risk control are positioned as critical amid volatile policy and rate environments. |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | LNR CN | - | - | |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 24 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 24 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 10 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 17 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 13 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand |
| 2025 Q2 |
Allocation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | David MacNicol | VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | dividend, Free Cash Flow, guidance, Telecom, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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