| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
MacNicol & Associates Asset Management views Q1 2026 as marking the end of easy street for markets, with investor confidence meeting significant resistance. The S&P 500 fell 4.6% while the Nasdaq entered correction territory, driven primarily by the Iranian war disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged dramatically with WTI rising 76% to above $100, creating supply chain disruptions and inflation concerns that historically precede recessions. The firm emphasizes defensive positioning, rotating toward energy, utilities, and consumer staples while moving away from narrow technology leadership. Gold remained supported by central bank diversification despite volatility, while private credit showed concerning strain with redemption limitations. Canada outperformed with the TSX up 3.3%, benefiting from commodity exposure. The outlook focuses on monitoring oil price stability and geopolitical developments, with particular concern about emerging stagflation risks that could challenge traditional stock-bond portfolio approaches. The firm maintains portfolio insurance against Black Swan events while actively managing allocations based on changing conditions.
Markets have transitioned from easy street to increased volatility and fragility, driven by Iranian war oil supply disruptions, emerging stagflation risks, and rotation away from narrow technology leadership toward defensive positioning in real assets and commodities.
Outlook focused on monitoring Iranian war resolution and oil price stability, with particular attention to regions dependent on Iranian energy imports. Watching for flight-to-quality behavior, inflation trends, labor market weakness, and central bank responses. If oil stabilizes markets may get relief, but if it breaks higher would suggest deeper embedded disruption with broader implications.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, credit, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Iran, oil, volatility | - | Markets ended easy street in Q1 2026 as Iranian war drove oil prices up 76%, creating supply disruptions and recession risks. S&P 500 fell 4.6% while Canada outperformed at 3.3% on commodity strength. MacNicol maintains defensive positioning in real assets and energy while avoiding narrow tech leadership, with portfolio insurance against Black Swan events. |
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Canada, Currency, Federal Reserve, Precious Metals, real assets, Trade Policy, volatility | - | MacNicol successfully navigated 2025's volatility by focusing on real assets and precious metals, which delivered exceptional returns as gold rose 64% and silver surged 142%. The firm maintains that active investing requires trusting your compass rather than chasing trends, with 2026 outlook shaped by Fed transition, midterm elections, and AI's evolution from spending to productivity. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, BABA, BIDU, DAL, GIS, GOOGL, KHC, LYV, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA | AI, Concentration, gold, Passive, risk management, technology, Valuations | - | MacNicol warns of dangerous late-cycle conditions with S&P 500 valuations at historic extremes and unprecedented 45% concentration in technology. Nvidia dominates at $4.53 trillion while passive flows create systemic risks. Gold surges 110% as investors seek real asset protection. The firm maintains defensive positioning through Safe Harbour Fund, emphasizing active risk management over passive momentum strategies. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BCE.TO, BMO.TO, NVDA, SHW | AI, dividends, real estate, semiconductors, tariffs, technology, Valuations | VZ | MacNicol warns of expensive market valuations driven by AI euphoria, with the S&P 500 at 30x earnings resembling Dot.com bubble conditions. They advocate dividend-paying stocks over bloated tech names for downside protection as profits decelerate. Trump tariffs pose modest 2-4% cost increases for real estate development, but multifamily remains attractive as an inflation hedge. |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | C, F, LNR.TO | Autos, Credit Stress, Manufacturing, tariffs, Trade Policy, Treasury, volatility |
LNR.TO C |
MacNicol sees current market stress from Trump tariffs and Treasury volatility as temporary but recommends extreme diversification and defensive positioning. Treasury bonds trading like penny stocks create systemic credit risks while automotive tariffs threaten integrated supply chains. Despite challenges, they expect central bank intervention and eventual normalization, favoring their new Safe Harbour Fund for protection. |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | DKNG, MNTS, QS | inflation, monetary policy, real estate, SPACs, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | MacNicol expects positive but volatile 2025 returns with elevated S&P 500 valuations at 30x earnings creating vulnerability for 3 major drawdowns. Trump policies bring mixed implications while SPAC collapse demonstrates value reversion. Firm recommends rotating toward large-cap value as Magnificent 7 momentum fades, emphasizing active management and selectivity in challenging environment. |
| Oct 24 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, FXI, GOOGL, META, MSFT | Canada, China, Elections, Technical Analysis, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | MacNicol favors Canadian equities over expensive US markets given the record valuation gap, with the TSX at 15x earnings versus 20x+ for the S&P 500. The firm holds Canadian energy and mining positions while avoiding Chinese stocks after September's poorly executed stimulus created pump-and-dump dynamics. Political agnosticism guides strategy over election speculation. |
| Jul 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | TLT, TSLA, XBB.TO | active management, Bonds, Market Commentary, rates, small caps, value | - | S&P 500's mega-caps trade at excessive 31x earnings while the other 490 companies offer value at 18x, creating active selection opportunities. Historical data supports second-half gains despite expected 9-10% correction. Firm recommends preparing cash for deployment in undervalued sectors and considers long-term bonds for 2025 as monetary policy eases. |
| Apr 24 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ABX.TO, BCE.TO, TSLA | Canada, commodities, Fed, gold, inflation, rates | - | MacNicol expects Bank of Canada rate cuts this summer while Fed timing remains uncertain. Commodities are outperforming after mixed 2023, with Canadian markets offering 30% energy and materials exposure versus 6-7% globally. Chinese PMI recovery signals commodity demand. Manager favors rotation from US tech into Canadian resources and well-capitalized gold producers despite mining stock underperformance. |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | TTWO | Canada, crypto, gaming, inflation, Labor Market, liquidity | - | Market rally driven by $1.70 trillion government deficit creating liquidity, not Fed policy. Bitcoin ETF approval and GTA6 release create selective opportunities in crypto and gaming. Warns of policy mistakes with unemployment at 3.7% versus 6% average and political inability to address spending. Maintains cautious positioning with targeted crypto and gaming exposure. |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | TSLA | Auto, Electric Vehicles, Germany, inflation, rates, Recession, Tesla | - | MacNicol & Associates argues that experienced managers provide superior risk management during challenging periods. They believe central banks are overly aggressive despite moderating inflation trends and cite significant economic headwinds including Germany's auto industry struggles against Tesla and Chinese competitors, CFO spending pullbacks, and declining consumer spending as COVID support ends. |
| Jul 12 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA | AI, Canada, Central Banking, interest rates, Mortgages, technology | - | MacNicol criticizes Bank of Canada rate hikes that ignore variable mortgage vulnerabilities while navigating an AI-driven tech rally. Five mega-cap stocks now dominate 20% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia leading AI chip dominance despite astronomical valuations. The firm prefers private tech exposure and advocates rebalancing concentrated positions despite tax implications. |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, Canada, gold, inflation, rates, Recession, SVB | - | MacNicol positions defensively against persistent inflation through gold and tail risk strategies while favoring Canadian over US equities. The firm views SVB's collapse as part of broader banking stress, not isolated incident, with US banks facing massive unrealized losses. Canadian stocks historically outperform during rate cycles and better reprice recession risks. |
| Jan 10 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 17 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 13 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIranian war sparked surge in oil prices with WTI rising 76% to above $100, Brent climbing 91% to roughly $118, and Dubai Platts surging 107% to about $128. The Strait of Hormuz disruption affects 20% of global oil and gas flows, creating supply chain disruptions and inflation concerns. Historically, every US recession excluding the pandemic downturn was preceded by an oil shock. |
Oil Energy Inflation Supply Chain Geopolitical |
GoldGold rose around 7% in Q1 2026 despite volatile March attributed to stronger US dollar and technical selling. Central bank diversification and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support gold as a strategic asset. Goldman Sachs maintains expectation that gold could reach $5,400 per ounce by end of 2026 supported by official-sector demand and eventual Fed easing. |
Gold Central Banks Diversification Safe Haven Geopolitical | |
Private CreditPrivate credit sector showing strain with firms like BlackRock and Blue Owl limiting or gating redemptions. Banks experiencing stress from software-company loans in private credit portfolios. The sector is becoming higher yield and showing cracks when liquidity is tested, particularly in less liquid corners of the credit market. |
Private Credit Liquidity Redemptions Credit Stress Banking | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure spending continues aggressively as companies race to use more AI rather than save money from efficiency gains. Markets are pricing in endless margin expansion while the path from spending to sustainable profitability remains uncertain. The narrative is evolving from spending to results, with 2026 likely to reward companies that can translate AI adoption into real efficiency gains. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Data Centers Productivity |
GoldGold rose more than 64% in 2025, marking its strongest annual gain in more than four decades. Buying was driven primarily by non-Western central banks and international investors seeking diversification away from US financial assets. This was a deliberate shift by institutional buyers responding to concerns around fiscal discipline, currency stability, and geopolitical risk. |
Precious Metals Central Banks Safe Haven Diversification | |
Trade PolicyMarkets were briefly rattled in April by sweeping trade tariff announcements, causing a 'tariff tantrum' with 10-15% drops and VIX spiking to the 50s. However, fears faded quickly and had little lasting impact on economic growth or investment returns by year end. Trade policy remains an important variable for 2026 with potential for negotiation risk and periodic volatility. |
Tariffs Trade Wars Volatility Policy Risk | |
SilverSilver was the undisputed champion of 2025, surging 142% - its largest increase since the late 1970s. This was due to its dual role as a safe haven asset and a critical industrial component for AI data centers and solar infrastructure. The move was driven by institutional demand rather than retail speculation. |
Industrial Metals Solar Data Centers Safe Haven | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIArtificial intelligence revolution is driving unprecedented market concentration, with Nvidia becoming the poster child at $4.53 trillion market cap. The company's GPUs power data centers, cloud computing, and generative AI models, including a landmark $100 billion OpenAI partnership. However, this dominance brings geopolitical risks from export restrictions and growing domestic competition. |
Nvidia Data Centers Cloud GPUs OpenAI |
GoldGold has quietly stolen the show with 17% gains last quarter and over 110% since late 2023, outperforming equities. The strength is spilling over to silver (up 50% year-over-year) and platinum (up 74%). Gold remains structurally under-owned despite being tactically overbought, with institutions holding just 2.4% versus Ray Dalio's recommended 15%. |
Gold Miners Silver Platinum Inflation | |
Concentration RiskThe S&P 500 increasingly resembles a technology fund, with Technology and Communication Services representing 45% of the index - the highest concentration in history. This creates unprecedented dependence on a handful of large technology companies, exacerbated by passive investing flows that automatically buy more of the largest stocks. |
Technology Passive ETFs Risk Appetite | |
ValuationsMarket valuations have reached rarefied heights with the S&P 500's P/E ratio at 30x, surpassing levels from 1929, 1965, 1999, and 2008-2009. The Buffett Indicator sits near 220%, eclipsing the dot-com peak, indicating the stock market is more than twice the size of the U.S. economy. |
Value Quality Risk Appetite | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe artificial intelligence boom has driven massive gains in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, which reached a market cap of $3.89 trillion. The AI craze kicked off with ChatGPT in November 2022, leading to enormous valuations that the manager views as potentially excessive. |
Nvidia ChatGPT Technology Valuations Bubble |
SemiconductorsThe SOX semiconductor index is up 6% in 2025, twice the S&P 500 gain. While acknowledging AI demand continues to drive chip stocks higher, the manager questions whether current valuations are sustainable and compares expensive GPUs to luxury cars. |
SOX GPUs Nvidia Valuations AI | |
DividendsAs the profits cycle decelerates, dividend-paying stocks in utilities, financials, industrials and telecommunications could represent better value than high-flying tech stocks. The strategy offers downside protection and benefits from compounding over time. |
Utilities Financials Value Compounding Protection | |
Commercial Real EstateTrump-era tariffs could add 2-4% to development costs, but most current projects have locked-in costs. Multifamily residential remains the preferred CRE asset class as an inflation hedge with ability to adjust rents in real time. |
Tariffs Development Multifamily Inflation Rents | |
Trade PolicyTrump's second round of tariffs could impact real estate development costs by 2-4%, though USMCA exemptions for lumber and limited Chinese material exposure should minimize impact on most projects. |
Trump USMCA Lumber China Development | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's protectionist policies and automotive tariffs are creating significant uncertainty around corporate capital spending plans and profit growth. The 25% tariffs on vehicles not made in the USA will add approximately $6,400 to vehicle prices, potentially leading to demand destruction and model discontinuations. |
Tariffs USMCA Automotive Manufacturing Protectionism |
AutosThe automotive industry faces major disruption from tariff policies, with complex supply chains spanning 24 countries for vehicles like the Ford F-150. Companies like Linamar face challenges with 7 border crossings required for transmission assembly, while the integrated North American auto industry structure is under threat. |
Ford Linamar Supply Chain Manufacturing Transmission | |
Credit StressTreasury securities are trading like penny stocks, undermining their role as reliable reference rates for other financial assets. This creates massive problems for mortgage underwriting, corporate credit deals, and mortgage insurance pricing, with credit being the lifeblood of the economy. |
Treasury Mortgage Credit Liquidity Underwriting | |
VolatilityBond volatility has reached extreme levels with 30-year Treasury yields rising 50 basis points in just two days. The VIX spiked significantly, but bond volatility is even more concerning as it affects traditional balanced portfolios and housing markets. |
VIX Treasury Yields Bonds Rates | |
| 2024 Q4 |
SPACsSPACs experienced dramatic rise and fall from 2020-2023, with over 600 IPOs in 2021 falling to just 30 in 2023. The collapse exposed how perceived value eventually reverts to intrinsic value, with many investors suffering significant losses due to loose financial reporting standards and overvalued private companies. |
Special Purpose Acquisition IPO Private Equity Valuation Regulation |
ValuationsS&P 500 trades at roughly 30x forward earnings, double its long-term post-war average of 17x. While not quite bubble territory, elevated valuations represent the market's primary vulnerability in 2025, especially given economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. |
Price Earnings Market Multiples Bubble Risk Correction | |
Trade PolicyTrump's return brings tariff threats on trading partners including France and Canada, with inflationary implications for US consumers. China faces particular vulnerability given trade tensions, though rare minerals provide some immunity due to US dependency. |
Tariffs Inflation China Trade War Geopolitical | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTrump proposes 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10-20% on all imports to encourage US manufacturing. This could create short-term inventory stockpiling by US companies ahead of tariff implementation, but would ultimately decrease Canadian exports by over 2% according to major banks. Canadian energy, metals, timber, and aerospace industries would be particularly impacted. |
Tariffs Manufacturing Exports Energy Metals |
ChinaChinese stocks rallied sharply in September on stimulus announcements from the PBOC, then gave back half their gains. The stimulus measures were poorly communicated in separate PDF files without cohesive detail or monitoring frameworks. The firm views this as resembling an international pump and dump scheme and continues to avoid Chinese equities due to poor government communication and execution. |
Stimulus PBOC Volatility Communication Execution | |
ValuationsThe S&P/TSX trades at roughly 15 times forward earnings, consistent with its decade average, while the S&P 500 trades at well over 20 times earnings. This represents one of the biggest valuation gaps on record between Canadian and US markets. The firm believes Canadian stocks offer better value despite expectations for higher US earnings growth. |
Forward PE Canada Gap Value Earnings | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Small CapsSmall cap stocks have underperformed due to pricing pressures, inflation, higher rates and slower global growth. However, earnings by smaller companies trail larger peers by fewer than 3%, while valuation gaps between biggest and smallest companies are considerably wider. The Russell 2000 small cap ETF is being backed into a corner and may explode in either direction. |
Russell 2000 Valuation Earnings Underperformance Growth |
ValueThe S&P 500's ten biggest stocks trade at 31x forward earnings while the remaining 490 companies trade at 18x forward earnings. This creates a significant valuation gap where active approaches to equity selection are recommended to find attractively priced candidates below the Magnificent 7. The advice is to be active and selective during the second half of 2024. |
Valuation Gap Active Selection Price-to-Earnings Magnificent 7 Equity Selection | |
RatesHigher debt, deficits, inflation and de-globalization have pushed bond yields higher. The firm believes the short end of the term structure is biased to the downside, while the real money will be made by investors who get the long end right with maturities more than 10 years. Long-term government bonds could benefit if financial markets and the economy get ugly. |
Bond Yields Term Structure Long Bonds TLT Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
RatesManager expects central bank rate cuts with Bank of Canada likely to begin cutting in summer while Fed timing remains uncertain. Rate cuts would boost economic growth through increased consumption and housing strength, benefiting multiple asset classes. |
Interest Rates Central Banks Monetary Policy Fed Bank of Canada |
CommoditiesFollowing mixed 2023, commodities have begun outperforming with margin of outperformance over S&P 500 visible recently. Manager feels constructive on commodities and believes Canadian stocks should benefit given their high exposure to energy and materials. |
Oil Copper Energy Materials Resources | |
GoldDespite gold reaching $2,400 per ounce, progress of gold mining stocks has been shallow with Barrick Gold remaining flat. Manager favors well-capitalized producers with low all-in sustaining costs and domestic producers with acquisition flexibility. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Barrick Gold Mining | |
CanadaCanadian markets offer highest exposure to oil and gas and basic materials at approximately 30% versus 6-7% for S&P 500. Energy and materials rally of 30% could take Canada to 7% margin of outperformance over US and world indices. |
Canadian Stocks TSX Resources Energy Materials | |
| 2023 Q4 |
CryptoBitcoin ETF approval by SEC represents a watershed moment for cryptocurrency mainstream adoption. The firm has made money through crypto investments including NextBlock Global and 3iQ Digital Holdings, though experiences have been marked by stress and confusion. |
Bitcoin ETF SEC Regulation Mainstream |
GamingGrand Theft Auto 6 trailer release triggered significant surge in player activity for GTA5 and GTA Online. Take-Two Interactive Software positioned to benefit from gaming nostalgia and anticipated demand for the new release. |
Video Games GTA6 Take-Two Entertainment Nostalgia | |
LiquidityUS government spending of $6.13 trillion against revenues of $4.44 trillion created massive liquidity that drove stock market performance. The $1.70 trillion deficit and Silicon Valley Bank handling ensured ample market liquidity. |
Government Spending Deficit Market Liquidity Fiscal Policy | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Electric VehiclesGerman automakers are struggling against Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers who are dominating with superior technology integration and lower-cost offerings. The traditional German auto industry's focus on combustion engines has left them playing catch-up in the EV transition, creating significant economic challenges for Germany's auto-heavy economy. |
Tesla German China Technology Competition |
RatesCentral banks, particularly the Fed, are maintaining aggressive monetary policy despite signs that inflation is moderating due to mathematical effects of rolling 12-month calculations. The firm believes central banks should shift to hold mode and prepare for rate cuts rather than continuing to hint at further hikes. |
Fed Inflation Policy CPI Recession | |
GermanyGermany's economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% this year, heavily impacted by the auto industry's struggles against Tesla and Chinese competitors. The country's largest companies by market cap include major automakers, making the sector's challenges a significant economic headwind for the entire nation. |
Auto Economy Recession Competition Innovation | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AITech's resurrection has been driven by AI optimism, particularly around Nvidia's dominance in AI-fueled chips and GPUs. The firm notes that gigantic tech companies are scalable with AI and software platforms that can handle increased workloads, making gaining market share easy. However, they express concern about astronomical valuations in AI stocks like NVDA trading on hopes of further AI dominance. |
Nvidia GPUs Chips Scalability Valuations |
RatesThe Bank of Canada raised rates to 5% despite concerns about household debt burden and economic vulnerability. The firm criticizes the central bank's policy, noting that variable-rate mortgages have made Canada more vulnerable to rate hikes, with many Canadians at the trigger rate where payments no longer cover principal. They argue the economy is not resistant to rate hikes as the Bank claims. |
Bank of Canada Variable Mortgages Trigger Rate Debt | |
MortgageVariable-rate mortgages became popular during pandemic lockdowns but are now causing stress as rates rise. Many borrowers are reaching trigger rates where monthly payments no longer cover interest, leading to negative amortization. The firm highlights that 48% of Canadians are concerned about debt levels and two-thirds worry about paying debts if rates continue rising. |
Variable Rate Trigger Rate Negative Amortization Household Debt | |
| 2023 Q1 |
InflationThe firm has been obsessing over inflation since 2016, fearing policymakers would be slow to acknowledge it. They believe inflation will be a central problem for investors for many years and have positioned defensively with gold, real assets, and tail risk strategies. |
Inflation Rates Gold Real Assets Tail Risk |
Regional BanksSVB's collapse demonstrates the risks when banks are forced to raise rates hastily. US banks are sitting on massive unrealized losses in mortgage-backed securities, and the firm views SVB as not an isolated incident but part of broader banking sector stress. |
Regional Banks Credit Stress SVB Banking Unrealized Losses | |
CanadaCanadian equities are better positioned than US peers due to superior repricing of recession risks. The TSX has historically outperformed the S&P 500 in seven of the last 10 rising rate cycles, making Canadian stocks attractive in the current environment. |
Canada TSX Outperformance Rate Cycles Recession |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | David MacNicol | VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | dividend, Free Cash Flow, guidance, Telecom, valuation | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | MacNicol & Associates Asset Management | LNR.TO | Linamar Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Components | Bear | Toronto Stock Exchange | Automotive Components, Canada, Cross-Border, manufacturing, Steel, supply chain, tariffs, trade policy, Transmissions | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | MacNicol & Associates Asset Management | C | Citigroup Inc. | Financials | Diversified Banks | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | banking, cost-cutting, investment banking, Job Cuts, leadership, M&A, restructuring, Trade Relations, Trading | Login |
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