| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 40% | - |
Maple Tree Capital delivered mixed Q3 2025 results with Jonagold declining 13.12% due to a 30% late-quarter drop in largest holding Upstart, while Heartwood surged 40.2% to its best quarterly return ever. The firm operates two concentrated portfolios leveraging retail's time and conviction advantages to invest in misunderstood growth companies. Jonagold focuses on cyclically depressed or misunderstood names like Upstart and Grindr, while Heartwood targets companies with operating leverage potential like Uranium Energy Corporation, Nebius, and CoreWeave. Key risks include extreme concentration and volatility, with Upstart representing significant position size despite fundamental improvements including 102% revenue growth and GAAP profitability. The manager believes the AI-driven bull market remains in early stages, with infrastructure spend creating opportunities in both AI applications and supporting sectors like uranium mining for data center power needs. Strategic portfolio adjustments including rotating from underperformers to AI infrastructure plays drove Heartwood's outperformance and return to benchmark beating status.
Maple Tree Capital operates concentrated, high-conviction portfolios leveraging retail's advantages of time and conviction to invest in misunderstood companies with substantial growth prospects, particularly those positioned for the AI-driven transformation across lending, infrastructure, and applications.
The manager believes this AI-driven bull market remains in its long-term infancy with hiccups along the way but continued momentum from Big Tech capex spend. They expect AI applications to become the next investment wave building on infrastructure over 5 years. Q4 guidance shows optimism for AI infrastructure durability but uncertainty around short-term market perception of key holdings.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASO, CRWV, DNUT, GOOGL, GRND, HIMS, LMND, NBIS, PGR, SN, TSLA, UEC, UPST | AI, Concentration, Fintech, small caps, uranium, volatility |
UEC NBIS CRWV UPST |
Concentrated retail fund with mixed Q3 results as Upstart decline hurt Jonagold (-13.12%) while AI infrastructure bets drove Heartwood's record 40.2% gain. Manager maintains conviction in AI-driven bull market's early stages, positioning in misunderstood growth companies like Upstart's lending marketplace and uranium miners benefiting from data center power demands. |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | DNUT, GRND, HIMS, LMND, MCD, UPST | AI, Concentration, conviction, Fintech, growth, small caps, technology, volatility |
UPST LMND GRDR |
Maple Tree Capital's concentrated, high-conviction approach delivered exceptional Q2 returns of 42.32% for Jonagold and 26.28% for Heartwood by buying the dip during tariff volatility. The strategy focuses on misunderstood technology companies like Upstart Holdings, leveraging retail's time and conviction advantages. Expected Fed rate cuts and resilient consumer spending support continued outperformance. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ASO, CRWD, DNUT, EA, GRND, HIMS, LMND, LYFT, RDDT, UEC, UPST | AI, growth, nuclear, small caps, tariffs, technology, volatility |
UPST DNUT ASO UEC EA CRWD LYFT RDDT |
Heartwood delivered -18.04% in Q1 as Trump tariffs sparked broad market selloff. Fund focuses on misunderstood growth companies including Upstart, CrowdStrike, and Reddit, using covered calls for risk management. Manager maintains conviction despite underperformance, viewing volatility as opportunity to average into high-conviction positions. Expects continued pressure in Q2 but believes patient capital will benefit from eventual recovery. |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ADBE, ASO, CHGG, CRWD, DIS, GOOGL, GRND, HIMS, KKD, LMND, LYFT, RKLB, SMCI, SOUN, TSLA, UEC, UPST | AI, cybersecurity, growth, nuclear, Rideshare, small caps, turnaround, value | - | Heartwood returned 2.44% in Q3, beating guidance but lagging benchmarks due to Krispy Kreme weakness. The manager concentrated holdings, added Crowdstrike and Lyft as turnaround plays, and initiated uranium exposure for AI power demand. With conviction at highs and overtrading addressed, they expect their refined process to drive outperformance in 2025. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe manager believes this AI-driven bull market remains in its long-term infancy with deep capex spend by Big Tech companies signaling increased momentum. They see AI applications like Upstart and Lemonade becoming the next investment wave to build on top of infrastructure over the next 5 years. |
Infrastructure Applications Capex Big Tech GPUs |
UraniumUranium Energy Corporation was positioned as the AI race accelerated, anticipating data center power constraints would become visible to the broader market. UEC as an American uranium miner was perfectly positioned to benefit from accelerated nuclear energy demand. |
Nuclear Data Centers Power Mining Energy | |
FinTechUpstart represents the core AI lending marketplace thesis with fundamental improvements including diversified product, borrower and funding base. The manager maintains conviction despite volatility, viewing Upstart as positioned to become the leading AI lending marketplace. |
Lending Credit Marketplace Underwriting Securitization | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIUpstart's AI underwriting capabilities are central to the investment thesis, with the manager attending AI Day and emphasizing how AI models improve with more data collection. The company's AI has grown more accurate, comprehensive and adaptive, reducing business volatility through better credit assessment. |
AI Machine Learning Credit Underwriting Data |
FinTechMultiple fintech holdings including Upstart for AI-powered lending, Lemonade for insurance technology, and Hims for direct-to-consumer healthcare. The manager views these as technology companies leveraging digital platforms to disrupt traditional industries with superior unit economics. |
Digital Lending InsurTech Telehealth Platform Disruption | |
ConcentrationThe fund deliberately runs high-conviction, concentrated portfolios with extreme position sizing in best ideas. The manager increased Upstart allocation by 38% during volatility, emphasizing that conviction doesn't wait for consensus and that concentrated positioning enables outsized returns. |
High Conviction Position Sizing Concentration Risk Management Alpha | |
| 2025 Q1 |
TariffsPresident Trump launched sweeping tariffs on countries worldwide, catching markets off guard and sparking panic. These tariffs pose serious inflationary threats and have created a lose-lose scenario for the Fed. The manager views these extreme tariffs as partly a negotiating tactic but acknowledges justified market fear. |
Trade Policy Inflation Recession |
AIUpstart's AI model enhancements including m18 and m19 are setting the company up well to execute in unfavorable environments. Electronic Arts has consistently invested more in R&D than peers, positioning itself to lead in the AI-driven future of gaming. Reddit holds unique user-generated data that will be extremely valuable in the AI era. |
Machine Learning Data Gaming | |
CybersecurityCrowdStrike was purchased during the July cyber outage dip when the market panicked on a market leader. They have strong customer retention, a clear moat, and a path to margin expansion as they grow their platform. Their recent failure has largely been forgotten. |
Data Privacy Enterprise Software Security | |
NuclearPresident Trump signed an executive order suggesting coal use for data center power needs and restricted uranium imports from China. Uranium Energy Corporation stands alone as the only American uranium energy company with potential to lead in powering America's nuclear energy needs. |
Uranium Energy Data Centers | |
| 2024 Q3 |
CybersecurityInitiated Crowdstrike after it fell ~40% following the July 19, 2024 tech outage. The manager viewed the outage as demonstrating Crowdstrike's power and moat, as the entire tech sector practically shut down. Despite fears of lawsuits and market share loss, analysts did not significantly revise earnings estimates, suggesting the impact was primarily multiple contraction. |
Cybersecurity Crowdstrike Tech Outage Market Share Industry Leader |
RideshareInitiated Lyft after financial analysis revealed a turnaround story with meaningful EBITDA production without significant stock-based compensation contribution. The position was validated when new CEO David Risher purchased $500k worth of shares and hedge fund manager David Tepper's Appaloosa initiated a $112m position. |
Rideshare Turnaround EBITDA Management Institutional Validation | |
NuclearInitiated Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) as AI spending ramps and technology companies need more power. The manager believes nuclear energy is the clear answer to providing the power these companies need, positioning for the foreseeable future in this space. |
Nuclear Uranium AI Power Energy Demand Technology Infrastructure | |
AITrimmed Google position due to concerns about its competitive position within AI. Gemini is viewed as the worst generative AI tool with longer response times, lower accuracy, and poor formatting compared to ChatGPT or Claude. The manager sees Google falling behind in AI despite its cheap valuation versus other Mag 7 companies. |
AI Generative AI Competitive Position Google Technology |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | UEC | Uranium Energy Corp. | Materials | Uranium | Bull | NYSE | AI infrastructure, Energy security, growth, Nuclear, Power, uranium | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | NBIS | Nebius Holdings Ltd. | Communication Services | Cloud Computing | Bull | - | AI, cloud, growth, hyperscaler, infrastructure, Scalability | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | CRWV | CoreWeave Inc. | Information Technology | Cloud Infrastructure | Bull | - | AI, cloud, Contracts, Gpu, growth, infrastructure, Recurring | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | UPST | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | AI underwriting, Funding, growth, operating leverage, Partnerships, Product Diversification, Securitization | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | UPST | Upstart Holdings | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Consumer loans, Credit Underwriting, Fintech, high-beta, lending platform, machine learning, Non-prime Lending, SaaS, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | LMND | Lemonade | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | AI Models, Behavioral Economics, Insurtech, operating leverage, Property Insurance, Reinsurance, Retail Community, technology platform | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | GRDR | Grindr | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | Community Platform, EBITDA margins, Free Cash Flow, LGBTQ+, Location-based, Mature Company, Mobile App, social networking | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | UPST | Upstart Holdings | Technology | Financial Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | AI lending, auto loans, Consumer credit, Fintech, growth, HELOC, machine learning, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | DNUT | Krispy Kreme | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Neutral | NASDAQ | Brand, Consumer Discretionary, cyber-attack, McDonald's Partnership, Restaurants, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | ASO | Academy Sports & Outdoors | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | same-store sales, Share Buybacks, Specialty retail, Sporting goods, tariffs, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | UEC | Uranium Energy Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE American | commodity, data centers, domestic production, Energy security, infrastructure, nuclear energy, uranium | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | EA | Electronic Arts | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Activist Catalyst, AI technology, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, Licensing, R&D investment, Video games | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | CRWD | CrowdStrike | Technology | Software | Bull | NASDAQ | customer retention, cybersecurity, growth, market leader, operating leverage, SaaS, Software | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | LYFT | Lyft | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Mobile Platform, operational improvements, Ride Sharing, Transportation, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Heartwood | RDDT | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | AI data, monetization, platform, social media, Stock Compensation, user engagement, User-generated content | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| UPST | Upstart grew revenue 102% YoY while turning a $(55)M loss into a $6M profit. Auto and HELOC products gained meaningful traction, and when combined with SDL, Upstart's secondary products made up more than 10% of total origination volume for the first time in company history. However, loans held on the balance sheet rose to nearly $1B, largely driven by $700M in R&D (Home and Auto) loans. CEO Dave Girouard called this a timing issue tied to new product lines, noting plans to move these loans off balance sheet by year-end. |
| GRND | Shares of Grindr have entered into a steep decline over the quarter. The market now believes GRND faces increased competition, from a fast growing orgy dating app Sniffies, as well as overstated/inflated user metrics. While Grindr has addressed these concerns, ARPPU growth came in light during their most recent quarter and a short report was issued, adding steam to this narrative. |
| HIMS | We sold our position in Hims and Hers this quarter following what we believe are increased regulatory risks to the business. Not only have GLP-1s (weight-loss drugs) become more challenging and competitive, but Hims and Hers core telehealth business (having NPs prescribe anti-depressant and other medication) appears more shaky than we initially believed. |
| LMND | Lemonade continues to impress and remains a very high-conviction name in the Jonagold portfolio. With Agentic AI now running a majority of their back-end operations, we see immense potential for operating leverage as they scale their trusted, Gen-Z friendly brand. |
| UEC | In Q4 2024, Heartwood took a large stake in Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) which was funded by our sale of Google. We believed that as the AI race accelerated, data center power constraints would become much more visible to the broader market. UEC, as an American uranium miner (u3o8 is the core ingredient in nuclear energy), was perfectly positioned to benefit from this accelerated demand. |
| NBIS | In Q2 2025, Heartwood sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT) for a 72.4% loss. We rotated the small principal left from the sale into Nebius (NBIS) at a cost basis of $31.35, with shares currently trading for $121.80. The resulting 288% gain has not only fully offset our entire DNUT loss, but has generated incremental outperformance for the fund. |
| CRWV | In Q3 2025, Heartwood sold Shark Ninja (SN) and Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) to rotate into CoreWeave (CRWV). We believe CoreWeave better fits these principles of companies with the potential for operating leverage, brand reinvention, and long-term relevance. |
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